OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[Enigma]

quack. good night

[OkaPoka]

i find it helpful that since im a highschool student taking physics next year i might have someone to help me so thanks ruru for asking these questions!

[OkaPoka]

also if you look at my join date that means hehe xd

[ruru]

xd

[ruru]

@ruru what are the point of these questions?

also the actual answer is kind of mean

[Enigma]

I actually find it a bit surprising that a MechE would ever have believed picking the same number as town is scum-indicative

Probably why I haven't done any engineering for several years. Meh it made sense in my head when I saw the draft, and searching for and reading the theory and graphs were interesting so

[OkaPoka]

y=mx+b

enigma if u dont find a viable lynch u become the viable lynch

[ofrhz]

if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to

Your timeline on me so far:
You asked me two questions,
1. Could ruru be playing differently to throw us off her scum game - yes
2. Have I read any of town ruru games or played with her - no

Then you voted me without commenting on my responses

Then you havn't pushed me since

I commented on why I thought you were scummy in 216. It can be broadly summarized as using reachy logic to arrive at a conclusion that isn’t very probable

I haven’t asked you follow up questions because I haven’t seen anything new to push without reiterating what someone else said

[ofrhz]

I'm back after a prod and fully caught up. At this point, I am town reading ofrhz and okapoka on tone.

Ruru's claim has me townslotting her for the moment. It makes sense for meta reasons.

Skygazer: nullish to town. @skygazer, my "peppered in" paranoia of Ceej is warranted. He really isn't usually this townie as town. I have my eye on him, but, of course, that's a shit reason to sumread him.

No scumleans so far, sorry.

What posts led you to town-toneread me?

[vulcan logician]

Okay, I have half of everyone ISO'd with handwritten notes. I'm going to separate my ISO reads of everyone into two posts to avoid the text wall. Also, please note that a few people have a plain old "null" without much elaboration. That's because, in these cases, there isn't much to elaborate on. A town or scum lean (imo) is more deserving of an explanation than an idk. Anyway, half of the ISOs I said I'd do two days ago are done, and after a short break, I should have the rest done tonight.

[vulcan logician]

I'm back after a prod and fully caught up. At this point, I am town reading ofrhz and okapoka on tone.

Ruru's claim has me townslotting her for the moment. It makes sense for meta reasons.

Skygazer: nullish to town. @skygazer, my "peppered in" paranoia of Ceej is warranted. He really isn't usually this townie as town. I have my eye on him, but, of course, that's a shit reason to sumread him.

No scumleans so far, sorry.

What posts led you to town-toneread me?

It was more of a general vibe I was getting from you as I caught up in the thread... say from the last 3-4 pages before I made that post. I'll pay more attention to that as I do my ISO of you (which I haven't got to yet).

[Sando]

enigma if u dont find a viable lynch u become the viable lynch

Dis is bad, don't say this sort of stuff, it's poisoning the well. By saying this, you're preemptively excusing Enigma looking to lynch anyone but themselves, something scum do a lot more than town. You're also muddying the water of others looking to run a counter-wagon to Enigma.

[ofrhz]

i could have sworn i responded
i was going to say i was waiting for a vulcan prod
VOTE: ceejay

i'm confused

you voted for him because he wasn't here (and in fact, you think he might have siteflaked), but once he was actually in the game, you removed your vote on him?

[ofrhz]

this post is really bad; specifically the ceejay wagon, which is complete busywork. he's literally saying that he has no reason to scumread cjv.

the vote accomplishes nothing and i don't see how it was meant to accomplish anything.

i'm interested in why you didn't call out invisibility's vote here. his votes were on inactive players (in particular, a player invis thought may not even be checking the site), but as soon as the inactive players returned, he unvoted them, so literally no pressure was applied by his vote.

[OkaPoka]

maybe ofrhz isnt the scum on the enigma wagon

[vulcan logician]

vulcan's ISO READS (pt.1)

AP (null)

Ausuka (slight scumread): mainly for jumping at my wagon with frail reasoning. When I saw that I provoked suspicion, I sort of dangled my self out there as low-hanging fruit. And she seemed to jump at the opportunity. This isn't really much of a case, and she's otherwise null, hence the

slight

scumread.

Brass/Cardi (scummy vibe): I'm suspicious of Brass's general demeanor. He begins with objective analysis of the draft which is a perfect ploy to seem towny whilst simultaneously generating wifom. He cast two "prod" votes... that is kinda LAMISTy behavior. Other than that, he hasn't produced much of substance. In addition, his replacement has been rather quiet.

BuJabish (null): But not plain old "null." Null by way of balanced out town and scum vibes. Some paranoia in there too: for instance, his saying that if Ruru is scum, her performance merits a win for team red seems like a (possible) attempt to pretend he has less information than he does/distance himself from his scummy alignment.

Ceej (somewhat towny): Lot's of towny vibes from him and, aside from the aforementioned paranoiac meta-suspicions, he is in nulltown territory.

Invis (null)

(the rest in a little bit. Gonna take a short break.)

[the worst]

VOTE COUNT 1.16

Sando (0)

~

skitter30 (0)

~

AP (1)

~ Invisibility,

Cardi B (1)

~ BuJaber,

BuJaber (1)

~ Sando,

Ausuka (0)

~

Skygazer (0)

~

vulcan logician (1)

~ Ausuka,

ceejayvinoya (1)

~

ruru (0)

~

ofrhz (0)

~

Invisibility (1)

~ Cardi B,

OkaPoka (0)

~

Enigma (5)

~ Skygazer, ruru, ofrhz, skitter30, OkaPoka,

NOT VOTING:

AP, Enigma, ceejayvinoya, vulcan logician,

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

day one will end in (expired on 2018-07-25 18:30:00)

mod notes:

- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- quack

[skitter30]

@skitter30 what isnt playstyle indicative and is alignment indicative for you

i guess a general tenet of how i play is that if i know player X behaves in a certain scummy way as town, it's silly to scumread them for that because that's how they usually play; i usually classify something like that as either a towntell or nai

in a general sense, yes, making general observations and not pushing things to hard may be scum indicative, but it's inline with how i know ofrhz plays as town so i don't think it's scummy for *them* in this context.

i don't really know how to answer that question better tbh, because it's very context and player-dependant

--

so wrt enigma's draft pick game theory thing

so that paper is trying to solve the unique lowest integer game, where each player tries to get the unique lowest integer.

Spoiler: what that chart says if anyone cares

in game theory there's sort of a back-and-forth between choosing the best strategy in a vacuum and choosing the best strategy given what you think the other players' strategies will be. a nash equilibrium occurs where each player chooses the best strategy given the strategies of all other players

we denote a strategy by pi for 1 <= i <= N, where each pi indicates that you choose i pi of the time. (ie pi is probability distribution and sums to 1)

so that chart denotes what percentage of the time you should choose each number 1-N in order to win the game.

it's not saying the probability that someone else will choose 6 is ~8% of the time given 11 players. It's saying that in your Nash strategy (which will yield the Nash equilibrium), you should choose 6 ~8% of the time.

source: took game theory last term

so basically this is a really long way of saying that you didn't understand that chart correctly

--

i'm kinda thinking this coems from town tbh?

not sure if scum picks based on a paper that they admit that they don't really understand. like it's something i can kinda see someone do by themselves but i'm not sure if a scumteam picks their draft strategy that way?

like i'm trying to imagine entering the scum PT and being like 'hey i read this cool paper that i don't entirely understand and i think we ought to follow the strategy therein' and having people go along with it? i feel like mostly not in this playerlist tbh. at best i feel like the response might be 'you can do that but we'll do ...' whatever alternate strategy the scumteam wants

--

honestly the logic in the RVS post was kinda wonky so I didn't really try to untangle it the first time around it since it's making a bunch of wonky assumptions and leaps of logic that don't really make sense

the thing is that i think the rvs vote made sense to *him* regardless of whether or not it actually follows probability

so going through ti again, as best as i understand his logic there is something like:

-> all players are rational
-> rational players will try to choose a unique number and thus purposefully not double/triple up with each other, even their own scum partners (i disagree that this ought to be an assumption)
-> ???
-> therefore if i'm town in a draft-pair and/or draft-triple the other players in that pair/triple are more likely to be scum

i'm kinda missing the link between those two points and am not sure how he got to the last bit

i think somewhere in there he mixed in the assumption that there's a fixed set of numbers players in this game can choose from like the paper.

also the following quote:

Yeh, but if I understand, your going assumption is that scum chooses three different numbers? This makes it more likely for them to end up choosing the same number as a townie, since scum have coordinated to choose different numbers.

Though if they were smart enough to choose the same numbers for WIFOM fun then I might go sit in a corner after this game

if i'm reading this right + reading his other posts from this evening right he's basically saying he thinks scum would have chosen different numbers from each other (to maximize their chance of getting a low unique number), and that that was the most important thing, even if that makes it more likely they pick the same number as town (which would drop them lower in the draft if they end up in a draft-pair).

this appears to be an underlying assumption in a lot of his posts.

i kinda feel like scum would have talked to their partners about all of this at some point if they were going to use this all of this to pick the draft, and i feel like if they did their logic here wouldn't have then ended up so .... wonky

[skitter30]

i think i want to UNVOTE: for now

[Skygazer]

617 is a really townie train of thought so town points to skitter.

But he didn't even present the paper until after being pressed for it and he doesn't fully understand it and hasn't even brought up the paper until now iirc so I'm inclined to believe that Enigma just wanted on that wagon so he made up shaky statistics and then tried to back it up after the fact when pressed. If he had that paper ahead of time why would he wait until now to present it after all of this pressing on him? Why not just show it early to get rid of the suspicions early? Instead he just kept saying game theory over and over.

[ruru]

I feel like it's super bizarre to vote based on a paper you don't understand and probably less bizarre to google it after the fact

Also like, remember UglyDuck in pick your poison? I'm not sure how much I believe the daytalk argument after that

[skitter30]

So you think he just googled that paper when he was pressured to defend his vote?

The thing is that I'm kinda seeing those underlying assumptions all the way from the beginning of his iso, like all the way from his first posts - he def was thinking about this along these lines since like his first post imo

I guess with daytalk I kinda imagine what I would do and I would def have discussed my strategy with my partners, but yeah you have a point wrt uglyduck

[OkaPoka]

i like skitter's post because she made a confusing paper more understandable with a nice conclusion

@ruru i dont think its bizarre to do an rvs vote based on a paper. it only got bizarre later when the vote wasn't coming off and he wasn't indicating he thought bujaber was scum either.

[Cardi B]

VOTE: brassherald

gut+if orhz is correct i guess my theory might be dead in the water

VOTE: ruru

nvm this is def better

Shtinky

Shmells like u tryina feed progression to us !!

My mans Bra Sherald also shmelled ruckus

[Cardi B]

Townleaning ofrhz, brass and oddly enough ruru

Yaww. . mmhmm