OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[skitter30]

ap i'm kinda like waiting for him to do stuff

like i feel like i can read him with content but the longer he doesn't post the more i'm reminded of jungle republic tbh

i'm a little hesitant to join the ap thing tho cuz vizzy's lolvote is sitting on him and like none of vizzy's votes feel *real* or like he's voting someone he actually found scummy; i feel like he just decided this was a good place to votepark

[skitter30]

hah i stole duckling's pagetop lolz

[OkaPoka]

have all of you played with each other or something?

do you guys know each other's meta enough to be able to decipher when their bullshit is town bullshit and when their bullshit is scum bullshit?

[skitter30]

i've played with a bunch of people this game, specifically: ruru, ofrhz, ap, sando, ausuka, brass (+ cardi b if she's who i think she is), bujaber, and cj

i can read ruru + ofrhz + ap pretty well on meta

[skitter30]

meta factors into the read for sando + brass too a bit but not nearly as strongly

[OkaPoka]

UNVOTE:


welp its official
im less confident in finding scum rn than rvs

[OkaPoka]

VOTE: vulcan logician

im tired and want to put my vote somewhere and he has the least amount of posts

/logic

[ruru]

i agree with ausuka actually; this gamestate is kinda too complacent for a wagon on scum imo; the only time i can think of a gamestate with like no resistance on a scumlynch is like brass's game day1, where all three scum were major lurkers.

unless scum is all like in {enigma, vizzy, vulcan, maybe ap} the gamestate kinda supports town!enigma because it seems scum are chill with this wagon and aren't like trying to do anything about it

like if you think enigma is scum what are the other two scum doing right now?

"scum always bus, so let's be offwagon but not look like we're trying to avoid his lynch lolz"

actually I think all the games I've played as town had a pretty low resistance d1 scum lynch

I wasn't even thinking of 721

723 scum got quicklynched d1
728 the first major d1 wagon was TvT, the competing wagons eod were 2 scums and a TvT wagon

also there was no counterwagon to me on the first half of d1 in 1859, the first drixx wagon was after my wagon died

[ruru]

actually I think all the games I've played as town had a pretty low resistance d1 scum lynch

all the games other than 721 I mean

[Skygazer]

I only have one completed game where I've started so far and to be fair there were like three counterwagons to the scum wagon before the scum wagon ended up going through. That's only a sample size of one though, and I imagine that particularly uncharismatic scum could be bad at getting counterwagons going. It's also possible that experienced scum could be averse to starting counterwagons to avoid association tells down the road. Basically I don't think the situation is that cut and dry but I guess I'll take it into consideration.

[skitter30]

like your eally think they're off-wagon and and like allowing a lynch on their partner go through without even getting the towncred of being on the wagon? i don't really think scum think that way and deliberately stay off wagon while letting their partner get lynched

i can't speak of 723 and 728 until/unless i actually go and check them out

iirc 1859 correctly there were no major wagons till the drixx thing; i don't remember there being a signifcant wagon on you before then; checking the vcs you got up to two votes for a while but like two votes on day 1 in a 9 player game is different from 6 votes day1 in a 14 player game

in my recent games:

-> jungle republic; wagon formed on scum and then on town!me and town!esp as a counter, ultimately esp's went through as a fairly low-resistance lurker lynch; i was like the only person protesting and i was the counterwagon

-> brass's open; end of day wagons were all three on scum and scum were basically lurkers and couldn't/didn't do anything about it

-> newbie 1872; math's lurker wagon was the main wagon of the day and ultimately went through; a newbie got coerced to lolhammer and there was no competing wagon iirc

i really really don't think this gamestate points to a scum!wagon tbh

it's too complacent; if it's on scum and scum didn't want it to happen i think there would have been a push somewhere else as a counterwagon and literally no other wagon has taken off; and if scum were bussing i feel like there would be more momentum on this wagon since i think scum would be trying to get the towncred of pushing a scumflip

like it's a 14 player game and we've had the same wagon for like 20 pages with like no counter and it doesn't really feel right to me

p-edit unless like the whole scumteam is lurker scum like i don't understand what scum are doing right now if this is a wagon on scum

[OkaPoka]

what if this was a scum push but because of the amount of lurkers and general lack of activity in this game, they realized that they cannot actually realistically get an enigma lynch so the wagon is going to dissipate until scum finds a new target.

[skitter30]

i mean i think that's basically what's happening; scum were chill with enigma but it's momentum kinda fell apart

if enigma's scum that strongly points to lurker scum, probably in like {vulcan, vizzy, maybe ap} or something

if enigma is town i think scum are just complacent and happy with the engima wagon and didn't care to do anything about it since it wasn't on one of their own

[ruru]

Maybe I see mafia theory differently from most scums

I think I reached L2 in 1859 and you were the L2 vote (but maybe it's bad example because my partner was afk)

I could also see oka as an enigma partner (although I'm kinda townreading oka lately) so it wouldn't have to be all lurkscum

[ruru]

and like I do see that lurker group as extremely likely to contain scum

[ruru]

If enigma can only be scum with lurkers then that makes flipping invis even more interesting I suppose

[skitter30]

idk; i tend to have a pretty good sense about this sort of thing; the only time i really remember being *wrong* about a wagon and/or gamestate based read is brass's game; i said i thought the draynth wagon didn't feel like a wagon on scum since there wasn't enough resistance to it and it turns out the competing wagons were all on scum and they were all lurkers

and that's why i'm noting the lurker possibility here, but even in brass's game there were in fact competing wagons, albeit on the rest of the scumteam

and even if you reached l2 that's kinda my point - it didn't stay that way long; not long enough for me to remember it or for it to even be reflected in the vcs

i can kinda see the oka/enigma thing given that oka was shading the wagon much earlier on, but i also think a lot of his recent posts are kinda townie; i also feel like 706 is weird to come from a partner tbh

[BuJaber]

I feel like it's too early to judge the gamestate.

I was going to comment on the wagon vs counterwagon situation but then I checked the deadline, and well a week is a lifetime.

[BuJaber]

What I'm trying to say is that I suspect some townies have ran out of things to say, scum cannot join the enigma wagon right now regardless of enigma's alignment because they'd have to find a reason to join now that would explain why they didn't earlier. And considering not much has happened that's not an 3asy thing to do.

So basically as people start scrambling about to get a wagon hammered before deadline we can analyze the gamestate more accurately than now.

[Skygazer]

Not feeling the invisibility wagon. Not really seeing anything town there, but that's because I'm not seeing anything there at all atm.

This Enigma wagon has died a slow and painful death, so I'm going with a yolo-vote here.

VOTE: orfhz

Early someone said something about orfhz playing rather safe/not wanting to get their hands dirty and I have to agree with that. I don't really see them doing much to try and advance the game state, just asking soft questions without really following up. They've kept their vote parked on Enigma without ever dropping in to comment on what's going on regarding Enigma or reflect on their read on Enigma that much. They're throwing out a lot of townreads without much reasoning behind them and when combined with their lack of scumhunting it looks like they're just kind of floating by through this game.

[Skygazer]

UNVOTE:
After rereading a few times I've:

1) realized that orfhz has already addressed my points
2) realized on a second reread that I'm pretty satisfied with their answers regarding what I've said
3) realized that it's entirely likely that they are trying to gamesolve and just don't have many strong reads at this point
4) realized that I shouldn't make a vote at 4am after skimming an iso

They still come across playing it safe/kinda floaty but I don't want my vote there at this point until I see more. So, orfhz, could you post a reads list?

[Skygazer]

I'll reread after I've gotten some sleep and see where I want my vote.

[Sando]

I'm back! Too many flights!

So I get what skitter is saying about the Enigma wagon, not sure I agree, but the principle is sound. Not sure why she doesn't follow through with the analysis and look into the people involved or not involved in the wagon. Strikes me as a very long and roundabout way to say "Enigma is town" rather than actually scumhunting. See her points about scum being happy with gamestate...doesn't progress the gamestate.

[BuJaber]

Has anyone actually given a reason why brass is town? Or is it just y'all feel enigma/whoever is scummier?

I think Invis is a lazy wagon for day 1. I'm starting to think he's harder to sort than Not_Mafia and that is no easy task by itself. Most of the time it's pure guess work and I'm saying this while considering myself moderately experienced in playing with NM.

[BuJaber]

Skitter just to avoid a misunderstanding: is vizzy invis or vulcan?