In post 2547, Keyser Söze wrote:If TW is scum this is actually some impressive anti-distancing from Momrangel here.
I dont actually think this is... as far out of normal scumplay as you think it is?
In post 2559, skitter30 wrote:i also don't understand why you semi-claimed a result on ep today either; it feels more like you're announcing 'i did something claimable' than an actual result that you're sharing to clarify the gamestate
That's not what it is, and if worst is fakeclaiming a guilty on me then you can lynch me and then immediately lynch worst tomorrow (or, preferably, just lynch worst)
In post 2560, Nauci wrote:Okay my meta dive assessment of TW is that lots of fluffposting is NAI. Post count is NAI (he's racked up >300 as both alignments). Tends to be a bit more defensive/short tempered as scum, and contribute more sharp questions/observations as town (on top of fluff posts). I apologize for being unnecessarily rude to the duckling but I do not rescind my scumread (almost all non-scum-reads on TW are as a result of the claiming that he has clearly done as scum).
this all seems really really consistent with worst scum here
In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:@ErrantP, okay let's "connect." I agree that skitter30, Bernie, Gustavo are town although Gustavo for different reasons than you so we're actually on the same page here. But let's talk about your second tier townreads. All of the reasons you posted for them are pretty vague and stuff that could easily come from either alignment that you just seem to be choosing to interpret as town.
I really really chafe at your wording here. It seems like you're talking to me as a concession. If you're not actually that interested in what I have to say (and that's what it seems by how you start here, but you said that you did actually want to read what I said earlier), then just say that.
In any case, my "second tier townreads" are me choosing to interpret things that could come from either alignment as town, yes. You're exactly right. But I think those things are more plausibly town, or have the most cogent explanation as town, so that's why I'm saying they're town. The fact that they're second-tier townreads mean I'm evaluating and reevaluating from both sides and if you think I'm being disingenuous with those reads might mean that you think that I put more strength into those reads than I do.
In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:Nauci is town for early game reasons and your intuition. Can you explain that some more?
I think that there has consistently been nuance in Nauci's posting and she tends to focus on the most salient parts of the game and points out the things that I also think are important/alignment indicative and I think scum tends to be less focused/more reactive to the general posts at large because they're not singularly focused on formulating reads like Nauci is here
But I do understand that Nauci being slightly less engaged decreases that sample size which is why I'm saying I don't put the most stock in that read
In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:Irrelephant is town to you because he said he was sheeping Bernie on Momrangal. I can understand the argument of "why would scum say they are sheeping when they would want cred for a bus?" But it's not really a strong enough argument to outweigh an existing scumread. I could see scum using that as a reason to hop off because it's a weak reason to begin with. But I'll think this through more when I analyze him in depth.
When you mention that I do think that you're right, but I still don't really think that irrelephant is the likeliest scum in this situation, and i'll await your analysis
In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:Keyser-Soze - holding onto an early game townread. A lot has happened since early game though. I'd like to see you comment on what you think of his recent posts. Have they made you doubt that townread or mostly re-inforced them?
I think that people scumreading keyser dont have strong reasons behind those things
I think that he has made a lot less readable stances/actions in D2 because I think that a lot of his analysis has been fake-able and the reason that I haven't made a lot of specific responses to Keyser's posts is because I dont have anything to say about how they affected my read (if they did I would have already brought it up.)
I think that the most important part to reading keyser right NOW is the fact that he thinks worst is plausibly a genuine PR and I will wait to see worst claim his result and keyser act on it before I make a judgment in that part.
In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:I feel like you and Nauci are looking for a reason to townread Irrelephant rather than analyze his posts and objectively reach a conclusion.
I think this is an unreasonable expectation.
you trying to throw shade on that is just really really bad in my opinion. All the data that I took from irrelephant's posts I've already mentioned. I used it to make a read. That read is bound to change. I'm not going to take a hard stance because that's not how sorting people works most of the time. I've come out and said I'm conflicted on irrelephant. I've had irrelephant as strong town before, and if I had some ulterior motive to townread irrelephant i would have just maintained that.
I don't look at his posts and analyze every post (and by the way I dont even think there's that much analyzable data in every post anyway) and then say "okay, this is my strong, hard read." i'm going to keep evaluating using the things that I think are the most important.
We need time to chat about the claim / form a counter wagon.
). TW deserved to die D2. His ISO has lacked WIM since D1. The scum meta evidence that Nauci provided D2 wanted me to see his flip even more. But the possibility of him playing out a successful town gambit with a crucial GUILTY investigation has admittedly made me want to give him a second chance. Anything is possible. This doesn’t mean I think he’s towncleared. As I said, false information = insta-lynched.
?