Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[BlackVoid]

I'm not so confident though. I think he's most likely town yeah and I don't want him lynched. But it's a small data point that I'm reading a lot into and I'm aware of that. He's not the same level townread as the other three.

As for Momrangal and Invisibility sitting on each other, Invisibility's was an RVS vote so I don't have anything to read into it. As for Momrangal's push on him, I haven't ruled out the possibility of her pushing a partner but I think it's the less reasonable explanation than her just pushing a townie that felt like lynchbait that she was trying to take advantage of and backed off when Shoshin gave her a hard time for it.

I have to leave now but I'll get back to you on your VCA later today.

[Irrelephant11]

...hm. That all sounds reasonable.

I still think Mom's approach to your slot was s/s indicative, though, and I really don't like that you tried to insert yourself into an unrequited townbloc.

Really hoping tw doesn't wait for the weekend. I'm trying to make things happen without him sharing, but it feels like 1/2-2/3 of the playerlist is mostly waiting for tw before we *really* play D3

[BlackVoid]

Quick post before I go, I haven't "inserted myself" into a townblock. I'm forming a townblock now with my strongest townreads so we can POE the game.

Momrangal's having my slot as leaning town when my pred was just rapping is kinda weird actually. Maybe she just didn't want to push him because she knows he can look pretty town when town.

[BlackVoid]

@Irrelephant, outside of me, who else are you scumreading?

[Irrelephant11]

tw and nm, and keyser is null for now

[Errantparabola]

On TheWorst, I actually think there are some things that point away from him being scum. Like the last sentence of 1297. It seems like Momra caught a crumb from TheWorst and used that as a reason to divert away from him knowing he has a claim up his sleeve to prevent his mislynch. 794 on Bernie - feels like she's trying to set up Bernie for a TheWorst townflip. 2261 is another post where Momra picks up on TheWorst's soft claim and it feels genuine enough as not a scum-scum interaction.

I do agree that it seems that Mom genuinely thinks that worst is a PR. But keep in mind that they have daytalk at this point.

Errant, do you read TW as town for anything other than the breadloafing?

Is breadloafing a fun way to say "breadcrumbing, but stronger" because if so, I love it.
But I don't even townread him for that.
The full gist of my read on worst is probably roughly like:

Scummy stuff (all of which I've brought up before):
I don't think he's being genuine with his reads
In general I don't think that how strong his reads claim to be is cohesive with how hard he actually pushes them
I don't think he's being genuine with his claim, which is the big thing today
The way he approaches the Mom wagon D2 (like he joined it but never pushed it hard, and it seemed like he expected Mom to flip scum so he focused his effort onto setting up a next step lynch on either Nauci or Skitter by pushing pre-flip associations)

Conflict stuff (some of which I might have brought up before):
I know this argument chafes with a lot of people but I think that "too scummy to be scum" did make me doubt a little bit, like if scum is simply this laser-focused with their reads and parts of the game that they interact with (I would at least expect scum to make an attempt to branch out)
Acknowledge that Mom generally saying stuff like "I have a secret reason to townread worst" seems town on its face but see my point about scum having daytalk

I think you should present your reads using that graph Errant designed

If you're gonna make other people do this then I want to patent it and name it after me. Let's call it the Parabolaxis.

[Keyser Söze]

Bernie's D2 tour de force annihilation of momrangel:

"I think mom-TW then probably N_M, if not then BV/math slot. Mom tw have to die though."
"Actually should probably do mom anyways."
"You can live today if you vote momrangal."
"Momrangals first focus here on a townread somewhat betraying(?) her rather than on who is scum or analyzing anything given gamma flipped is no bueno."
"But this reaction is kind of evasive and somewhat talking around the point or of making judgment"
"VOTE: momrangal"
"This is weak"
"there's no take or interpretation on her take in regard to what I wrote around it in thread."
"Everyone should probably either vote momrangal or at minimum respond to my points on her."
"I literally don't know what momrangal is doing because she's not engaging me but also isn't trying to wagon me."
"can you respond to my mom points and tell me why you have a TW preference."
"@Nauci I agree with you on TW for the most part but in spite of everything I think he's a bit more risky compared to mom lynch"
"I guess people can cross reference this but this is like really really bizarre to me"
"Gustavo my concern of why wagoning momrangal might have been risky EOD d1 doesn't exist today."
"I guess mom can claim if she wants but tbh I really don't think I'd believe any PR claim that comes out of her to begin with."

[I thought Bernie and mom were scum partners D1 (I didn't believe their suspicion of eachother was sincere... and didn't like Bernie ending up on Gamma's wagon instead of Mom's... but perhaps I was looking too much into Mom's side though..), but now on D3 I've just gotta put my hands up and accept that Bernie could just be a townie who nailed Mom as scum as early as D1 and crucified Mom on D2, taking ownership of her wagon. I kinda like how Bernie even gave me room to suspect him, linking him with scum, but not OMGUS'ing me... he gently told me I was suffering from 'tin foil hat from hell'. Perhaps scum-Bernie would have become more nervous, aggressive or unsettled with me linking him with his scum partner D1, but that wasn't the case. I'm finally happy to bury my paranoia of the Bernie slot.]

[Keyser Söze]

UNVOTE: Not_mafia

[Keyser Söze]

OoOooOOoooOoOOOOO

who else had a good night?

Now, if I was scum and read this at the start of D3 (and feared ‘town’-TW had likely got a guilty on my scum partner)

what would I do?

I would probably start to

bus my teammate

, pre-empting TW’s result reveal.



Now if I were to re-read D3, which player could fit this narrative...?





New scum team theory incoming....!

[Nauci]

DID YOU SAY BREAD?!

this may come as a shock to you Nauci but I like pts as well

Can confirm this; picked up daychat in stack the deck

But don't think it's as major as Irrelephant =P

[the worst]

The only time I've been scum in Stack the Deck was with Beef and Maria who picked recruit + rolecop.

but yeah I'm on record for saying numerous times that daychat OR recruit are the only useful picks in stack the deck (depending on playerlist / original duo) :3

[Nauci]

@brassherald: I'm v/la through Monday because my thermometer says 103.2

Sorry guys thought I could still catch up but the brain fog is overwhelming. At least my cat likes me when I'm warm

[the worst]

aw noo hope you feel better soon Nauci say meow to your cat from me (and make sure it doesn't catch your fever!!)

[Nauci]

Brief skim I don't know if I agree with Irrelephant but I like the push and didn't like bvs responses

VOTE: bv

Sorry I'll be back to more analysis when o can think straight

[the worst]

so basically I have a guilty but it might b soft, and I have greatly enjoyed watching people's reactions

can anyone who believes they might have been soft guiltied please discreetly alert me to this fact?

[BlackVoid]

Brief skim I don't know if I agree with Irrelephant but I like the push and didn't like bvs responses

VOTE: bv

Sorry I'll be back to more analysis when o can think straight

This is not a town post. My most genuine gamesolving attempts actually happened in the most recent pages. I don't believe town says this.

I think I'm fairly sure I want to lynch either Nauci or Irrelephant today but I'm going to double check the others too.

[BlackVoid]

so basically I have a guilty but it might b soft, and I have greatly enjoyed watching people's reactions

can anyone who believes they might have been soft guiltied please discreetly alert me to this fact?

Since you're implying that you investigated me, there's literally one role I can think if that might get you a result that doesn't necessarily clear me. In most other scenarios, you wouldn't.

[brassherald]

Al Smith, the first Catholic to run for President, supposedly was building a tunnel to the Vatican to get advice from the Pope.

Votecount 3.04

BlackVoid (2)

~ Irrelephant11, Nauci

Not_Mafia (1)

~ Bernie Sanders

the worst (1)

~ Gustavo

Bernie Sanders (1)

~ Not_Mafia

Irrelephant11 (1)

~ skitter30

Not Voting (3): BlackVoid, Errantparabola, the worst, Keyser Soze

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-27 15:30:00)

Modnotes

Nauci is hereby ordered by the mod to get well soon, but will be VLA until July 23.

[BlackVoid]

So, I looked over Errantparabola's posting. There are some things I liked. I think the claim and neighborizing TheWorst felt pretty town because I feel like mafia's go-to option as a neighborizer would be to neighborize a "townread" and fool them in the neighborhood. That has an astounding success rate. I also think his play around TheWorst claim was genuine. The delayed part of the neighborhood also feels like a town modifier which makes it weaker.

What I don't like about his posting are the mysterious townreads on Nauci (claiming that Nauci is making good points and focused on getting reads is flat-out wrong. The townread on Irrelephant is also not understandable). Mysteriously having me at the bottom of his readslist is weird too.

His progression on Momrangal is a bit too one-dimensional. He consistently suspects Momrangal for reasons that aren't very strong, hops on mid-wagon and stays there, pointing out pre-flip associatives. I couldn't help thinking that if I were scum, this is how I would bus.

So, I'm pretty conflicted here.

[Gustavo]

Al Smith, the first Catholic to run for President, supposedly was building a tunnel to the Vatican to get advice from the Pope.

Across the ocean?

Yeah, it was the 20s, and it may have been a joke, but some people took it seriously. Historians place Herbert Hoover's win in that election solely on the anti-Catholic sentiment in America at the time. -brass

[BlackVoid]

It's also interesting that Nauci claims that Irrelephant's MO as scum is to attack strong town players to keep lynch options open and that's exactly what they're both doing here by attacking me. Because they're caught and have to push back.

Irrelephant's scumread on skitter is actually even less believable because skitter was not only obvious town but a major pusher behind the Momrangal wagon. The latter point should convince even people who don't know her that she's town. It almost feels like he needs to discredit both of us to stop us from collaborating and lynching one of him or Nauci.

Nauci on the other hand hard-townreads skitter but I found it really curious that she never asks skitter why she's townreading me or scumreading Irrelephant. She's just going along with her convenient reads of me-scum and Irrelephant-town while continuing to go on about how mind-meld she and skitter have been. If Nauci was town, there would at least be a "why are you townreading BV?" I don't feel like she's listening to both viewpoints to make a decision but just sheeping Irrelephant because that's the convenient read.

Based purely on who is more scummy, I'd actually say Nauci edges out Irrelephant as the scummiest.

I'll look at both of their interactions with Momrangal when I get back from work and put a vote down.

[BlackVoid]

I also think my slot may have been shot N1. I didn't really consider it a real possibility before because I hadn't replaced in by then and the only thing my pred did was rap and I thought that was a pretty bad way to play 1-shot BP. But he also softed having a PR at some points by claiming that he was laying low and that might have been what drew the kill.

Nauci making such a big deal about it and pointedly asking me about it feels like inside info.

[BlackVoid]

It also makes sense. My pred suspected Nauci and Nauci later said she thought he was good or something.

[BlackVoid]

@Irrelephant, if you wanted me to comment on 2458, 2459 and 2461, you actually say that Not_Mafia is less likely scum and you don't make any strong conclusions there? Can you specify what you want me to talk about?

[skitter30]

hi i am around now

@brass:

i'm going to be v/la tomorrow till monday

might be back earlier, prob won't be