Micro 813 - Game Over

[Antihero]

listen
they both feel townie so im not going to immediately mark them down as scum
i would much rather change a scumread

but i feel im right there too

so im at a loss

so, to be 100% clear, you know exactly why what you're arguing is impossible but you're doing it anyway?

[Antihero]

@Otter : That makes me feel like Maf is definitely scum - and your slip signals that you didn't realize that acquiting the 4 of us AND inadvertently "confirming" both Manatee and Maf as town only leaves room for you as scum- it's you and one of Maf/Manatee for sure. Could be both, but you're there either way.

VOTE: Otter

ok wait a second what IS this all about...?

/looking....

Post 532 why are you giving up on sorting mafmen?

[GuiltyLion]

So my axiomatic read here is gonna be town Anti

MafMen voting him and also still doubling down on Otter and Manatee townreads is insane. Literally game-losing behavior if he's town.

That said, it makes me wonder, why does he feel the need to townread Otter here? If Otter is town is that meant to be a buddying play? Or is that WIFOM for his scumflip to messy associatives with Otter?

Oka I assume a quicklynch wouldn't be hard to coordinate because mafia have daytalk. If I were scum I'd be posting my availability/schedule in the thread and if all three of us were online I'd absolutely be coordinating an exact time to hammer

Oath calling MafMen lock scum and voting Otter is also ??? Oath why would you NOT vote MafMen?

[GuiltyLion]

Given MafMen scum, why does Manatee vote him right out the gate if they're paired together?

[Antihero]

MafMen voting him and also still doubling down on Otter and Manatee townreads is insane. Literally game-losing behavior if he's town.

well... yeah

but technically bad town is sadly a thing (and that's what i'm trying to suss out rn)

[GuiltyLion]

Like pre-emptive bus is the only explanation I can think of. But given how he's played this game and the fact that he himself said he doesn't care to try to look town, it seems less likely that he'd be playing for towncred by voting his partner first thing in LYLO. And MafMen is not trying at all to bus him back to further distance

[GuiltyLion]

bad town is definitely a thing but I'm almost at the point where I no longer care, because if he's town then there's definitely scum in Manatee or Otter and if he won't vote either slot ever then we can't win anyway

[OkaPoka]

Given MafMen scum, why does Manatee vote him right out the gate if they're paired together?

wifom? towncred?

manatee knows i hard scumread mafmen so maybe he thought he could get me on board?

if mafmen flips red manatee becomes obv town. if we lynch manatee first, he flips red, mafmen would also seem scum and town wins.

thus i think mafmen is the fall guy

[LuckyOtter]

Unless Oka is playing dumb I think his not thinking about daytalk aiding a quickhammer is a decent sign he's town.

[Antihero]

Given MafMen scum, why does Manatee vote him right out the gate if they're paired together?

wifom? towncred?

manatee knows i hard scumread mafmen so maybe he thought he could get me on board?

if mafmen flips red manatee becomes obv town. if we lynch manatee first, he flips red, mafmen would also seem scum and town wins.

thus i think mafmen is the fall guy

... so wait, do you still think mafmen is scum...?

[OkaPoka]

yes

[Antihero]

... so wait, do you still think mafmen is scum...?

oh wait i think i see what you're saying. so you're saying manatee's play is to bus mafmen and then ride the towncred... got it

pedit: lol

[Oath]

Breaking this up into two parts.

Oath, can you explain why I am confscum to you? I'm not following you.

Reads, PoE, and Probability.

There has to be at least two scum in

You
Maf
Manatee
Oka

This is false. There has to be at least one scum in this group. There could be two, but that does not have to be true.

Not false. PERSPECTIVE. That's the exact thing you're missing. I KNOW IM TOWN. You don't have to know that. I do.
So if there is only one scum in that group these are the only possible teams:

Manatee/GL/Anti
Maf/GL/Anti
Oka/GL/Anti - this is actually not possible as an entire scum team because that would make Man/Maf T/T. Back to the quicklynch thing.
You/GL/Anti

And you may not like my Anti read, but I have literally no reason to think Anti is scum- what you'd like if for me to now double back on reads and consider Anti and option and you're going a round about way of insisting upon that.

You were the only one offline in that extended period EXCEPT Manatee (who has already placed a vote on Maf).
In that period we had Manatee's vote on Maf, MafMan's vote on Oka, then Maf's vote on Anti
I think we're all confident at this point that the entire scum team cannot be GL, Anti, Oka, or myself ( it's more likely that only one of these is scum)

Within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath} there is certainly not 3 scum, but there could be two. What makes you so certain there are not 2 scum in that group and instead there

has

to be 2 scum in the other group?

All 3 of those teams with only 1 member of aforemention list of : You, Maf, Manatee, or Oka consistently leaves GL/Anti as the other 2/3 of that scum team. No way. YOU don't even believe that, but we'll get to that later.

Here, again, you're missing the key difference. Within You, Maf, Manatee, and Oka- AT LEAST 2 scum. Within GL, Anti, Oka - There could be 2 scum, largely dependent on Oka being scum, but it's unlikely
I never said there weren't 2 scum here- I just said it's more likely that it's only one which I believe. Notice that Oka is on both lists.

The problem is with the thought process- to acquit us as a team, you had to believe that a quicklynch had ANY chance of happening or else the reaction isn't genuine. Which means for a moment at least you thought of Manatee and Maf as both town - then decided oops nvm. It's always been one of Manatee and Maf as scum- the ONLY reason the idea of the quicklynch possibility was introduced is because GuiltyLion was speaking to MafMan, from Maf's impossible perspective. YOU GAVE IT ACTUAL WEIGHT. Anti came in a denounced it carrying weight immediately, but that's because they have a genuine perspective. It's probably the best unintentional bait I've seen someone lay down and actually have another person pick up.

tldr; a quicklynch was never possible- therefore acquitting us as a team was sheeping reads that don't align with townOtter pov - it actually makes no difference and was fluff, unnecessary unless to not actually contribute.

If Scum vs Town (either way) - it would leave 2 more scum in : Oka, GL, Anti, or You. Removing Anti sorryz ain't happening, gg if I'm wrong. So 2 scum in Oka, GL, Otter.
Possible teams:
Manatee or Maf/ Oka/GL
Manatee or Maf/Oka/Otter
Manatee or Maf/GL/Otter
So you're at 66% probability - same with GL and Oka, except they don't have the first scenario against them.

And Maf is at

100% probability

!

Also, removing Anti from the equation entirely with no justification is bad, especially in lylo, and especially when you're relying on possible combos to make your case. Strong case for Anti as 3rd partner here.

Neither Maf or Manatee is at 100%probability. What are you talking about? In SvT with Manatee or Maf- it's 50% either way. They have the exact same probability of being scum.
So just to be clear you think the scumteam is Maf, Anti, and myself? So you would agree that GL/Anti are not 2/3rds of any scum team. Yet you acquit GL? Which is important to me because I've maintain that you're scum if GL is, unfortunately GL won't be getting my vote at any point. I've said it before, if GL or Anti are scum it's irrelevant in voting because we only need to lynch two scum to win. So I'm comfortable pegging the team and lynching the other 2/3rds given GL/Anti together is close to impossible imo.

Maf voted Oka (for all of 30 minutes, but GL, Oka, and myself were online- this doesn't acquit anyone because Oka was the target of that vote and thus no quicklynch was possible)

The only thing this does is confirm that the scumteam is not {GL, Oka, Oath}. If that's what you're saying here I agree.

That was exactly what I was saying... what else could I have meant?

If Maf v Oka is Town v Town - it would leave scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - and we talked about this- Anti isn't scum, the only option here is GL/Manatee/You -

again 100% chance IMO of scum in this scenario

and it's reasonable that no quicklynch occured due to your activity.

Did we talk about this? The royal we, you mean, because not everyone is sold on Anti as town. So again, flawed premise, and looks like you're protecting Anti. Excluding Anti from the equation (again, with no justification), changes the probabilities

significantly

. You're removing a factor without justification, and also ignoring other results in your findings (i.e. in this scenario GL and Manatee are also 100% scum, so you should be concerned about them as well, especially Manatee) in order to support your narrative. The important point is no, this scenario does mean I am 100% scum.

If Scum vs Town - it would leave 2 more scum in : GL, Manatee, Anti, or You - you know where I'm going here...
Possible teams:
Maf or Oka/ Manatee/GL
Maf or Oka/Manatee/You
Maf or Oka/GL/You
The same 66%.

Again, leaving out Anti changes things significantly. Also puts Manatee and GL and 66%, so this doesn't make a better case against me than Manatee who is within the group of confirmed scum from your POV. That is, if you're deciding who among {Maf, Manatee, Otter} is scum, this scenario does literally nothing to help you conclude I am more likely scum than Manatee.

I'm sold on Anti as town- these are my reads, you literally asked ME why YOU are confirmed scum TO ME- did that part slip your mind conveniently???

You're acting like I initiated pushing a case against you all on my own, when in actuality YOU asked me to explain why I had you as scum? Now you're upset that I don't dive into everyone in response to your specific question about yourself and misrepping it as universal?

At this point, everyone's scum team possibilities are going to look different slightly because I don't know anyone's alignment but mine- give my alignment though I can make some assertions.
It seems like you're the only one unable to do that successfully and that makes me feel like you are having trouble keeping up with what a townOtter would mean for a scumteam because you're not town at all.

I am concerned with GL and Manatee- you being scum doesn't mean that they aren't scum in that scenario- again, you asked why YOU are confirmed scum, so I'm telling you.

Btw I literally said it doesn't make you more likely in that scenario- it's the fact that through multiple scenarios you have the higher chance of flipping red. Since it is lylo I am gonna go with who is most likely to flip red. Manatee is 50% at least.. while you and GL are both 66% at least to me. I'm not going to vote GL because I don't have an independent scum read of him. He's played well as scum and we only need to lynch 2 scum anyway. That can be you and Manatee or you and Maf- but you are in both of those options for me.

[Oath]

Deux.

THEN Maf v Anti (the current vote?) - we've all been online since, but activity does seem more staggered and less easy to orchestrate a quicklynch at this point and I can't clear anyone other than my reads

--
Even if a 3-person quickhammer would be difficult to coordinate, looking at timestamps, do we at least agree that no combination of {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam? All were posting pretty closely to each other.
--

Now in post #534 you acquit GL, Anti, Oka, and Myself from comprising the scum team - on quickhammer basis, which I agree with but that is largely dependent on Manatee being town, because quicklynch by scum on townMaf (since scum wouldn't quicklynch scum) would only be possible with townManatee as that 4th vote- you basically conftown Manatee and Maf but then said you needed to go back over your Maf reads??? which brings me back to scenario #1- MANATEE AND MAF AS TOWN V TOWN IS 100% OTTERSCUM

This is all kinds of terrible.
1. “you basically conftown Manatee and Maf” –

No

. Precisely the opposite. Because there was no quickhammer, the town!Maf + town!Manatee world does not exist. One of them is scum. You are grossly misrepresenting my statements to fit your narrative.
2. What this means is that the scumteam cannot be comprised

entirely

within {GL, Anti, Oka, Oath}, but could (and must) be comprised of at least one (maybe two) of you + one or both of Maf/Manatee.
3. I need to go back over my Maf reads because I need to decide between Maf and Manatee. It’s really not that hard to understand unless you are forcing a narrative in which I’m scum.

The only possibility you have of not being scum is with at least one of them as scum,but you were so quick to acquit us which reads like scum eager to sheep the tone of the thread and slip up because you can't see town POV.

Again, I am eliminating the possibility that the entire scumteam is within that group. Your “slip” is entirely fabricated (see previous point). Also, what do you mean I can’t see town POV? That makes no sense here.

1. See above - your acquittal of us as a team goes in line with a thought process that prior to the lack of a quicklynch you believed a quicklynch was possible - if you never believed it was possible the read of acquitting us was unnecessary to force fit the tone of the thread and provided no additional content. If you did think actually think of Maf/Manatee in relation to town (not possible), then you're likely attempting to townread one (or both) of your scum partners without outing them, but the slip is you outing yourself.
2. This is true, but your townPOV should have had that possibility settled because it's literally the only one that means you're not scum. You understand? You of all of us, NEVER should have considered a quicklynch a possibility to even recognize or give weight to if you were town. That thought process goes directly against Ottertown- this after clarification is where you should have been when you were asking if we all "at least agree no combination of {Gl, Anti, Oath, Oka} can be the scumteam"
3. You hesistated to even establish that at least one of Maf or Manatee HAVE to be scum - You literally said that Invis flipping town made you feel like Maf would be town, but you're "feeling" like Maf is confscum - you don't even bother sorting Manatee, which if you have a town read on him means FOR SURE Maf is scum from your POV, but you hesitate to throw that down- Post #534 reads like you're leaving possibilities open that are literally impossible for you as town. That was my read of it.

I'm pretty sure by now you get what I mean by not seeing townPOV - none of your posts regarding possible teams seem to come from a townOtter-mindframe/perspective. They seem to be filtered by what's happening around you.

Now we have this terrible post:

The entire scumteam cannot be within {GL, Anti, Oath, Oka} or else they'd have been able to all vote you and be done with the game, especially since Manatee wasn't really around to see any shenanigans and change his vote. Meaning either Manatee or me must be scum, and if you're TRing Manatee it must be me.

but you arent scum nor is manatee
so
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is practically a scumclaim

@ Maf Look at this list

Anti
GL
Oath
Oka

Otter
Manatee

- because they aren't scum right?
MafMan

IF YOU ARE TOWN you're saying the entire scum team is in Anti, GL, Oka, or me (Oath)... then why are you still alive? Who do you think is scum?

@Otter : That makes me feel like Maf is definitely scum - and your slip signals that you didn't realize that acquiting the 4 of us AND inadvertently "confirming" both Manatee and Maf as town only leaves room for you as scum- it's you and one of Maf/Manatee for sure. Could be both, but you're there either way.

VOTE: Otter

And again, you see this from Maf, call it a scumclaim, call maf “definitely scum,” but then revert to your flawed probabilities and slip narrative to vote me instead, presumably because you think it is not possible that Maf and Manatee are both scum with someone else. But why is that?

This is also based on the flawed premise that two of the three of us must be scum. But earlier you had Oka in this basket (your very first point in your post) as well. You were also entertaining the idea earlier that GL and Oka might be scum together, in which case there are still several possible worlds in which I am not scum. Given all of that, what makes me the better vote over Maf, who, in your own words, just scumclaimed?

Manatee/Maf scumteam is bad scum, terrible play. Seriously. I don't understand why that part is difficult to understand. Maybe I'm giving Manatee more credit? Sure. If MafMan had been the one to vote Manatee- I might be more on board with them both being scum- because I'm not sure Maf is completely understanding things. But it makes no sense, that is why I don't to that scum on scum -man/maf scenario with much weight- it is possible though, just unlikely.

I don't recall saying 2 of the three of any group MUST be scum... I explained exactly why 2 of the 4 of Maf, Manatee, Oka, and You are scum
- clarify what you're getting at here, because it feels like you're connecting dots I never made or confusing me talking to Maf with THEIR perspective in mind.

Maf wasn't my vote because there is a part of me that really feels like Maf is an idiot (sorry). The practically scumclaiming thing seems so wild. SO WILD. So yeah I am leaning scum hard on Maf, but it's not certain to me. Maf/Manatee scum/town is still by all other information at least 50/50. Your probability is at least 66% in all my scenarios.

yes... so is GL's, but if you recall I literally said I'm only thinking Otter is scum if Invis is town and GL is scum.

So my feeling on a scum team is Manatee or Maf/ GL/ Otter.


It's not that I wasn't including them (or anyone else for that matter) which is the tone you gave your post. I was focused on YOU because you asked me specifically about YOU.

[GuiltyLion]

yeah Oath is still town

[GuiltyLion]

the game is gonna come down to figuring out Maf/Manatee

I think it's either Maf/Otter/Oka, Manatee/Otter/Oka (this team is risk to quickhammer Anti, if they all show up at the same time we could rule them out), Maf/Man/Oka, or Maf/Man/Otter

[GuiltyLion]

whenever I stop just hip firing takes and actually really do a deep think for a couple hours, I'll figure out which of those teams is most/least likely and where I want to bet the game

[OkaPoka]

not even going to consider maf/manatee/anti?

[GuiltyLion]

a) why would I consider Anti
- nobody who is scumreading him is really making a convincing case on him at all

b) you think scum are only voting each other right now?

[OkaPoka]

a) PoE is my case

b) idk, reading into votes rn seems like cesspool of wifom, i think this is all a ploy because manateedude is doing an extremely lackluster job of pushing his lynch and mafmen is also doing an extremely lackluster push. i don't actually think they want to lynch each other completely.

[OkaPoka]

they are being lackluster cuz its not real and fake and they are scum (mafmen and manatee at least)

[MafMen]

listen
they both feel townie so im not going to immediately mark them down as scum
i would much rather change a scumread

but i feel im right there too

so im at a loss

so, to be 100% clear, you know exactly why what you're arguing is impossible but you're doing it anyway?

its hard when you feel you are right on both sides
with your scumreads and townreads


its confusing the shit out of me

[Oath]

listen
they both feel townie so im not going to immediately mark them down as scum
i would much rather change a scumread

but i feel im right there too

so im at a loss

so, to be 100% clear, you know exactly why what you're arguing is impossible but you're doing it anyway?

its hard when you feel you are right on both sides
with your scumreads and townreads


its confusing the shit out of me

Who do you think is scum Maf? I asked this a while ago and you've dodged.

[Antihero]

brainstorming: i can think of a couple reasons why maf is still holding onto this

>he's scum and otter is town: it's kind of an appeasement thing. he doesn't want to piss otter off too much/ give him impetus to omgus

>he's scum and otter is scum: manatee's vote and absense of a quickhammer painted maf into an unexpected corner. at that point, he can either turn on his manatee read (LOL, that's the only read he's insisted on this whole game) OR acknowledge otter is scum and bus (umfavorable). so he takes the third option and sticks with nonsensical reads

since he's acknowledging that it is an irrational position, i think one of the above two are infinitely more likely than just technical incompetence

VOTE: mafmen

[MafMen]

listen
they both feel townie so im not going to immediately mark them down as scum
i would much rather change a scumread

but i feel im right there too

so im at a loss

so, to be 100% clear, you know exactly why what you're arguing is impossible but you're doing it anyway?

its hard when you feel you are right on both sides
with your scumreads and townreads


its confusing the shit out of me

Who do you think is scum Maf? I asked this a while ago and you've dodged.

anti and oka
what