Micro 813 - Game Over

LuckyOtter · Post Post #600 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:47 am

Oath the short response to your responses is I know I asked you to explain your read, but I think your explanation is not good. It relies heavily on probabilities that start with flawed premises and do no better at pointing to me as scum than Maf or Manatee (I did misread one of them, but it still puts me at equal footing with the others), so your vote on me over Maf continues to confuse me. You also continue to assert that I have made some kind of slip based on my agreeing with things that have already been said. Agreeing with said things does not automatically make me scum.

From my POV, not all 3 scum are in {Oka, Oath, Anti, GL} as has been established (it seemed like there was still a question here when I first mentioned it, and Maf continues to not get it, so it felt redundant but perhaps not unuseful to support the statement). You are assuming I genuinely gave weight to a town!Maf/town!Manatee scenario when what I was doing was explaining how such a scenario could not be so. It's the twisting of my thought process into something scummy that bothers me the most about you right now.

I am going to consider your Oka case, because I have been getting the feeling lately he might be buddying me, but unless the scum are making horrible use of their daychat, after your vote on me and now on Oka with no reactions, you're looking more suspicious. Then again, given that Maf and Manatee appear not to be frequent visitors, a quicklynch probably would be difficult to coordinate anyway.
--
I might be ruling out a Oka/Oath team, though. I don't see Oath changing her vote to bus here.

Kublai Khan · Post Post #601 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:11 am

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Vote Count

MafMen - 2 - ManateeDude, OkaPoka
OkaPoka - 1 - Oath

Not Voting - LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion, Antihero, MafMen

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2018-07-27 14:44:59)

Oath · Post Post #602 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:32 am

Listen I'm trying to get you guys to realize this set up plays in our favor. We only need 2/3rds of the team so even if you think I'm scummy we can still successfully lynch 2/3rds and win.

Everyone is dropping off and not sorting. Which doesn't help because there are only 7 of us. 3 of those are scum. If they deadlock we need every member of town to agree on the lynch which is why I believe each of my votes has stayed solo. I would concede I work a lot in probability but we have a great deal of information!

Even you Otter would have to concede that (If you're town) oka and one or both of,maf/manatee is in the scum team at this point given that the team can't be anti, gl, and myself . I run the scenarios to make this clear to you guys we're close to winning and ignoring the obvious.

OkaPoka · Post Post #603 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:53 am

mafmen -> manatee -> anti

scumteam

sheep me to victory

LuckyOtter · Post Post #604 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:41 am

I want to be super clear about something: I agree with Oath that we have lots of information and that it should serve the sorting process. Looking at all possible scenarios and sorting based on likelihood and what makes sense within interactions is something that is very useful if done carefully. My problem with Oath is the execution and not the process itself.

Oka being outright dismissive of the process itself is bothering me because it's a bad argument and feeds into my fear that he's buddying me.

Promise to Oath: When I get the time, I'm going to run scenarios myself and see if I can come to the same conclusions as you. At the top of my head I cannot outright exclude the possibility of town!Oka because I can imagine several plausible combos of one of maf/manatee + 2 within {GL, Anti, Oath} or both maf+manatee + one of {GL, Anti, Oath}.

If I were to preclude Anti from possibly being scum as you do, then that blows up several possible combos and does significantly increase the likelihood of Oka being scum. But I'm not comfortable just writing off Anti as town until I run through the scenarios and interactions. You eliminate factors after testing them, not before. It's like, basic science. Even if you never want to vote Anti, writing him off has significant consequences for the rest of your scenarios, so it's causing you to vote recklessly (on me, then Oka who is possibly also town).

GL writing off Anti entirely is bothering me as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it's Oath+GL+Maf and Oath and GL have been buddying Anti all game. I mean,

somebody

is getting played and I'm suspicious of the people who don't want to admit they might be getting played (because they're probably the ones doing the playing).

Anyway, we have 7 days before deadline so can we stop throwing votes around willy-nilly?

Antihero · Post Post #605 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:28 am

In post 603, OkaPoka wrote:mafmen -> manatee -> anti

scumteam

sheep me to victory

what is this for...?

Antihero · Post Post #606 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:56 am

got a couple more hours today of repetitive stuff to mull this over, but where i'm at:

i'll bet the game on GL-town at this point. if i messed up on that, then just fucking lol

same w oath. and while i'm not rly on her otter train for the reason she's saying, i think he might be scum anyway

oka has yet to do anything town to me (add empty bluster that's obviously not going to convince anyone of anything to the list of scummy things oka's done over the course of this game)

mafmen hasn't swayed me, i still think he's squirming in an awkward position bc actually voting otter is suboptimal for him

manatee's the slot we should've PLed day 1 but didn't :\ i guess i tend to think i see "pocketing" paranoia more from town? f idk

LuckyOtter · Post Post #607 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:03 am

Now I'm annoyed and can't focus on my other work so I started working on scenarios. This is literally just POE based on the following events:
Manatee votes Maf
Anti votes Maf
Oka votes Maf
Oath votes me
Oath votes Oka

If you'd like to know which combos I eliminated at which stage and why, I'll provide that upon request instead of flooding you with a wall of all the steps.

There are 20 total combinations of 3 choices among 6 people, and I've narrowed it down to 8 possibilities including:
Maf + Manatee + Anti
Maf + Manatee + Oath
Maf + Manatee + Oka
Maf + Manatee + GL
Maf + Oath + Anti
Maf + Oath + GL
Maf + Oath + Oka
Manatee + Oka + Anti

The only scenario in which Maf isn't scum is the one where all 3 scum are sitting on town!Maf waiting for a townie to hammer. This is the dumbest scenario and will make me cry if it turns out to be the right one. So unless someone can convince me that that's not the dumbest scenario, or if there's any other scenario where Maf is town and I messed up in my PoE, that leaves Maf in every other possible combination, meaning I am 100% voting Maf today.

Manatee and Oath are both left in 4/7 combos, including one shared one. Oka, Anti, and GL appear in 2/7 combos each.

Again, I haven't reread to check associatives, but gut says Oath more likely than Manatee tomorrow.

Pedit: Well let's hope it's a Maf + Manatee + Oka team because otherwise someone in the {Anti, Oath, GL} love triangle is about to get their heart broken. Except that means Oka is literally asking us to lynch both his partners. Though, it might actually be plausible given the history of this setup, I think.

ManateeDude · Post Post #608 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:04 am

You can PL me now iyw. That would make the town lose.

im the king of AtE

OkaPoka · Post Post #609 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:10 am

"im the king of AtE" thats what the small text says btw

ManateeDude · Post Post #610 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:36 am

Lynch mafmen ok done.

OkaPoka · Post Post #611 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:40 am

i concur lets do this

GuiltyLion · Post Post #612 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:52 am

sorry I've been putting this game off and I don't have much time today or tomorrow

current thing I want to really solve is how I feel about Oath's freakout and Otter/Oka votes instead of Maf. I'm like 80% on it being genuine, but still a little paranoid that it could be an AtE-laden attempt to outright win and avoid a lynch on partner!Maf? I need to review the interactions between her and MafMen and see if an Oath/Maf/[x-who-is-not-Manatee] team would make sense here. Then again the only thirds that would fit into such a team would be Otter/Oka, which feels a little unlikely given their interactions with Oath (though Otter v Oath could be drawn out theater). I'm mostly leaning this is not the case but I want to feel

good

about ruling it out before I decide not to vote Maf today

also I still think Oka's vote may have been an attempt at a coordinated quickhammer w/ Otter. Oka's gamestate view and play has substantially dropped off in effort/quality immediately before and after that vote as well

OkaPoka · Post Post #613 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:55 am

Me think, why waste time say lot word when few word do trick?

Oath · Post Post #614 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:05 pm

Can we do an objective listing - meaning I will list not accounting for my own known alignment or anyone else's first. No town reads. No scum reads. Just probability.

Player list :
Anti
GL
Oath
Otter
Manatee
Maf
Oka

These are all the possible scum teams : 35 ? You can double check I sorted them myself so I may have made an error

Spoiler: All Possible Scum Teams

Now... Let's remove the highly improbable scum teams:

Every team in which the ENTIRE team is Anti, GL, Oath, or Oka has been removed- because a lynch could have already been achieved.
Every team containing GL or Oath WITHOUT Maf has been removed - Maf was at L-1 with Oath, GL not voting Maf and achieving a lynch,- ScumGL/ScumOath would have hammered a Town Maf, these are linked so that neither Oath or GL can be scum opposite a TownMaf (however ScumMaf could have several different partners)
*Anti UNVOTED Maf which I find to be towny because given Oka's vote that put Maf at L-1, I see no scum unvoting if they were going for a quicklynch but since this isn't as agreed upon by everyone I left scenarios with Anti as scum with or without Maf.
GL/Otter/Manatee has been removed because Maf voted Anti and there was a period in which they could have already achieved a lynch.

Spoiler: Probably Scum Teams

The great thing about this is we all know our alignments SOOOOOOO

Town Anti would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Town GL would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Town Oath would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Town Otter would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Town Manatee would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Town Oka would see the possible scum teams as:

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Town Maf would see the possible scum teams as: (whether he understand this or not)

Spoiler: Scum Teams

Both - Manatee and Maf as Scum leave literally ANYONE as the third option - flipping either one of them isn't useful because of this. We aren't certain it's just one. We only know it's AT LEAST one and yeah statistically it's Maf, but that won't clear Manatee. We need a scum flip that will solidify multiple townies if possible or else we'll be right back here tomorrow. A town Maf would solidify TownOath and TownGL BUT WE DONT HAVE THAT LUXURY ANYMORE.

Spoiler: Manatee w/Maf 3rd Pairings - It's everyone

Now for the reads - this will be biased because duh they're MY reads... so keep in mind I'm removing myself from these because I know I'm town and you should account for your own alignment if you are town.

Oath's PoV Once again

Spoiler: Oath's Scum Team List

As I stated earlier, I'm removing all instances of Anti being scum WITHOUT Maf because a scumAnti vs townMaf had no reason to UNVOTE (honestly I could remove all Anti related groupings, but we'll wait until the end for that)

Result:

Spoiler: Remaining Scum Team

The wagon was
Manatee, Anti, Oka - now the entire scum team waiting for a townie to hammer? I don't think so, but I've already removed this grouping for the fact that Anti UNVOTED Maf earlier.

Day 1 Lynch
Korina - 5 - Oath, Invisibility, Antihero, OkaPoka, MafMen
MafMen - 2 - LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion
Invisibility - 1 - Korina
LuckyOtter - 1 - ManateeDude

I don't believe the entire scum team was on Korina's lynch, but if they were it would have to be Anti/Oka/Maf. - so I'm removing this team as a possibility.
What I find odd upon re-reading is that GL was on Korina and then UNVOTED here: viewtopic.php?p=10314649#p10314649 - for no specific reason
That being said I'm not convinced- Lucky Otter also parked his vote on Maf and ManateeDude's SR have all been gut reads- the entire game and he votes for Otter here: viewtopic.php?p=10309796#p10309796 - not bothering engaging.
If all the scum were OFF Korina's lynch the only option for scum team is GL/Otter/Manatee - I've already removed this option as GL cannot be scum without Maf.

So the likelihood is that the entire scum team was NOT on Korina's lynch.

Let's split the group and say there is AT LEAST one scum on the lynch and AT LEAST one scum off
Group A
Antihero, OkaPoka, MafMen

Group B
LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion,Manatee

Result after Day 1 analysis: *Unchanged*

Spoiler: Same Scum List As Above

Day 2 Lynch
Invisiblity - 5 - GuiltyLion, OkaPoka, Oath, LuckyOtter, Antihero
OkaPoka - 2 - Invisibility, MafMen
MafMen - 1 - ManateeDude

The entire scum team could only be parked on Invisibility in the following teams:
*No Maf teams included as Maf isn't on Invis
*No GL teams included as Maf would have to be scum and is not on Invis
*No Manatee teams included as Manatee was not on Invis

The only possible scum team that could be ENTIRELY on Invisibility is:
Anti/Otter/Oka - I already cancelled this team out because of the fact that Anti cannot be scum without scum Maf.

So the likelihood is that the entire scum team was NOT on Invisibility's lynch.

Let's split the group and say there is AT LEAST one scum on the lynch and AT LEAST one scum off
Group A
GuiltyLion, OkaPoka, LuckyOtter, Antihero

Group B
MafMan, Manatee

Result after Day 2 analysis: *unchanged*

Spoiler: Same Scum List As Above

Vote count analysis was largely unhelpful to me but I'm still posting my thoughts because maybe it'll help one of y'all. Same for the lists- use them it took me long enough to sort them lol

Now Day 3-

Excluding Maf/Manatee because I don't find their flips beneficial unless we are at deadline and need to lynch because of the reasoning stated above I would say Oka is the scummiest person.
Why would town vote up to L-1 in a lylo situation? Why was Oka's L-1 placing vote so quickly behind Anti? There is no way to be sure that person is scum - there was no reasoning, and since Oka has been nonchalant
As I stated before this makes Oka scum to ME regardless of Maf's alignment. Maf could very well still be scum which is why Oka was comfortable voting them up to L-1 or Maf could be town and Oka was going for a failed quickie.

If Oka was town and thought Maf was scum, why then? Oka had a scum read BEFORE Anti placed his vote- Oka could have voted Maf without issue at ANY time.
I am confident that an Oka lynch flips scum. Town have ZERO motivation to act as Oka did. Voting is one thing. Voting to L-1 in lylo is another. Voting to L-1 in lylo RIGHT AFTER someone else places a vote?! Suspect.

Results after Oka ONLY scum teams:

GL/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Oka/Manatee
Maf/Oka/Manatee

The only option for townMaf is Otter/Oka/Manatee, but scumMaf is 3/4 with Oka's remaining scenarios. What scares me is that Although Maf has the highest probability of being scum- he was also easily put at L-1 in what looked like an attempted quicklynch.

My fear is Maf lynchbait which leads me to believe that the scumteam is in fact Otter/Oka/Manatee and that Otter was late to hammer - if you look at the posts:

Post #581 (ISO) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:07 pm - Oka votes Maf to L-1
Post #585 (ISO) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:08 pm - Anti unvotes Maf - Maf no longer at L-1
Post Post #593 (ISO) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:23 pm - Otter appears in thread with a post saying "This is me not voting anyone. Maf is scum tho"

The threat of hammer was well over by the time Otter posted in thread seemingly trying to clear themselves, yet it's close enough that perhaps this was a missed opportunity? It feels odd. I even tried to clear Otter at the time by checking activity and you can find my explanation of why that did not work here: viewtopic.php?p=10329277#p10329277

I also am hung up on Maf being town as a gut thing - I've never understood the scumreads on Maf AND Maf isn't playing to any wincon right now. I have said it before and I continue to apologize but he's being less than smart as town or scum. This set up allows scum day talk - the entire team is horrible and not helping him OR he's alone here and stupid town. That's just how I feel and given the player list I don't think anyone here aside from ManateeDude (because of activity) would hang their scum buddy out to dry like what is happening to Maf. It's too easy.

Special acknowledgement:

***The team of Anti/Oka/Maf fits all requriements for Anti scum (as Anti couldn't be scum without Maf and Maf is in this team as well)
I removed this team based on the fact that: 1. I have a hard town read on Anti 2. I don't believe the entire scum team was on the day 1 lynch. 3. MafMan is likely confused town.
If you disagree with any of those things you may want to account for this. As goes with anything in the MY reads section.***

OkaPoka · Post Post #615 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:12 pm

probability of mafmen being scum is 99.99%

probability of manatee being scum is 99.98%

probability of antihero being scum is 99.97%

also ill read the rest of your post later lol

Oath · Post Post #616 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:31 pm

Statistics mean nothing to the individual. It's just nice to have them laid out in front of you to make it easier for everyone to sort them down by their own reads.

MafMen · Post Post #617 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:22 pm

oath
Anti/Otter/Oka
thats what im thinking

Oath · Post Post #618 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:45 pm

In post 617, MafMen wrote:oath
Anti/Otter/Oka
thats what im thinking

... I guess Hell froze over, either way I'm here for it.

ATTENTION ALL TOWN MEMBERS WHO HAVE OTTER/OKA SCUM TEAMS AS PROBABLE

We do not need to agree on the 3rd member- doing so is useless. The best course of action is to lynch Oka today. If we lynch 2 out of 3 scum we win. So as long as we agree it's OKA/OTTER we're clear for the win.

For instance. I don't buy Anti as scum- doesn't matter if you do or don't. We'll never have to vote Anti to win even if by some slim chance he is scum.

MafMen · Post Post #619 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:27 pm

if anti aint happening ill go for the next best thing
VOTE: luckyotter

OkaPoka · Post Post #620 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:31 pm

vote mafmen please

Oath · Post Post #621 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:37 pm

UNVOTE:

*sigh*

Oath · Post Post #622 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:38 pm

Okay guys... let's get on one page.

OkaPoka · Post Post #623 (ISO) » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:39 pm

mafmen is always scum

manatee is probable buddy

anti may be the third wheel doesnt matter two lynches is all we need

Antihero · Post Post #624 (ISO) » Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:00 am

VOTE: oka