Mini Normal 2021: Game Over

[Oath]

I doubt I can get a tchill lynch tomorrow by myself but I'd begrudgingly agree to this plan of attack if we just can't get tchill lynched today.

You're not alone- it's just a weird hour, hopefully Lalendra and others will come in with fresh perspective and do the right thing. I'm only agreeing to the self hammer if that majority agrees that me being town CONFIRMS TChill, anyone who backs off of that after I'm lynched is likely scum.

[Tchill13]

I doubt I can get a tchill lynch tomorrow by myself but I'd begrudgingly agree to this plan of attack if we just can't get tchill lynched today.

Where's my case? Are you just gonna deflect all game?

You said you could come up with a fake case. I haven't even seen that yet.

[Nero Cain]

I want everyone to weigh in on my proposal- I'm dead serious. I want TChill gone because we'll never win if you guys aren't interested in lynching him. He's scum, it's obvious.

IF I WAS SCUM IT'S NOT OBVIOUS. YOU COULDN'T EVEN GET THREE VOTES ON ME DAY 1.

You're full of it. You have been the whole game.

Oath thinks you are super-obvious scum. Just b/c others don't agree doesn't mean her POV is incorrect.

These are the reactionary ravings of flailing scum that's desperately trying to throw things against the wall and hope they stick.

[Tchill13]

I don't understand? Don't want to be a liability for town in endgame because of our back and forth? Where did you think this would lead after d1? In what world do you not become an endgame liability after that?

You're scum. Refusing to sort, claiming in anti town manners and refusing to work with scum IS AI.

IT MEANS YOU'RE SCUM. I DID NONE OF THAT.

I didn't refuse to sort- I take notes on all my games. I didn't share them in thread because you are the scum that needs to go. You are most active scum. You are the most vocal scum. You are the hardest scum lynch because of that and you need to be gone from this game so the rest of the town can sort without you fogging up the works.

I knew I was always an endgame liability. The weird thing is you not acknowledging that you are too. If you were town you would want this cleared up one way or another. You won't even agree that me flipping town should result in your lynch,.

No it shouldn't. I'M TOWN. YOU'RE SCUM. I will never lynch a townie ik is town. I KNOW I'M TOWN.

You're scum. I'm the most vocal TOWN. I'm the most active TOWN. Scum want me gone but had to kill the masons.

[Oath]

I'm going to bed TChill - honestly I was attracted to you because you're smart, so this is obviously carefully orchestrated. You know it's me or you. In fact, I don't even think you think you'll survive the day. You're probably just doing this until your scum buddies come in to bus you which is why I offered myself up- we don't need anymore WIFOM. I can and am willing to die today if you die tomorrow. I don't want you confusing the town any more than need be and my flip will serve that purpose.

Night yall.

[Tchill13]

I want everyone to weigh in on my proposal- I'm dead serious. I want TChill gone because we'll never win if you guys aren't interested in lynching him. He's scum, it's obvious.

IF I WAS SCUM IT'S NOT OBVIOUS. YOU COULDN'T EVEN GET THREE VOTES ON ME DAY 1.

You're full of it. You have been the whole game.

Oath thinks you are super-obvious scum. Just b/c others don't agree doesn't mean her POV is incorrect.

These are the reactionary ravings of flailing scum that's desperately trying to throw things against the wall and hope they stick.

You caught me. I'm basic af scum... Such an ignorant read Nero Cain. So lazy....

Just because others don't agree doesn't mean I AM scum. Such a weak case. I thought you'd do better than that garbage when you said you could make a fake case.

[Tchill13]

Oath is scum. Oath is scum. She keeps pushing she doesn't care about her survival. She keeps giving reasons why she doesn't. That's what she want everyone to see first and foremost. She even pointed out scum care about survival.

She is scum and she knows exactly what she's doing. She's scum that claimed VT on day 1 to avoid any night actions on her and to explain why she was never NK'D.

[Nero Cain]

honestly I was attracted to you because you're smart,

better get dem digits chill.

[Tchill13]

I don't want to have anything to do with scum.

Oath is scum.

[Nero Cain]

I'm a broken record-Tchill 2018

[Tchill13]

I can make cases on cases but blah blah blah-nero Cain 2018

[Nero Cain]

I want everyone to weigh in on my proposal- I'm dead serious. I want TChill gone because we'll never win if you guys aren't interested in lynching him. He's scum, it's obvious.

IF I WAS SCUM IT'S NOT OBVIOUS. YOU COULDN'T EVEN GET THREE VOTES ON ME DAY 1.

You're full of it. You have been the whole game.

Oath thinks you are super-obvious scum. Just b/c others don't agree doesn't mean her POV is incorrect.

These are the reactionary ravings of flailing scum that's desperately trying to throw things against the wall and hope they stick.

You caught me. I'm basic af scum... Such an ignorant read Nero Cain. So lazy....

Just because others don't agree doesn't mean I AM scum. Such a weak case. I thought you'd do better than that garbage when you said you could make a fake case.

I mean this isn't really a "case" and I never said it was. Sure, I *could* take this reason and hang my hat on it b/c it

DOES

reinforce my belief that you are scum but I mean, come on....you're so panicked after two votes on you that you feel the need to react and discredit. It's disgusting.

[Krazy]

What happened to osuka? "I'm back!" ... never posts again

Impossible to read a slot with no posts.

Working my way through, Mumble looks bad. I really don't like the worst's fake dayvig but I have mixed feelings on whether its scum. Need to reread Yuu tomorrow. Think I have like 15 more pages or something.

Not really on board with the Tchill/Oath thing so far. Neither is in my top 2 for scumreads.

Tchill's avatar makes me want to put Light of the Seven on loop. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS-gbqbVd8c

That last season was so all over the place... I can't say I dislike it turning into a more typical fantasy adventure show but it definitely doesn't have the edge of the first three seasons.

On a side note, I left the site before because I started to feel like mafia as a game just isn't a 'healthy' game... it is hard to really feel like you're making friends when so much of the interaction is tinged with hostility or uncertainty, so I'm just going to keep talking about fluff while we're playing if you don't mind.

Probably not making it through 15 more pages tonight, and I need to reread Yuu in iso before I vote anyway.

[Nero Cain]

ppl get REALLY offended when you call them scum-regardless of alignment. Its a maturity thing and depends on the playerlist I guess.

[Krazy]

Sure, I *could* take this reason and hang my hat on it b/c

it

DOES

reinforce my belief that you are scum

but I mean, come on....you're so panicked after two votes on you that you feel the need to react and discredit.

ppl get REALLY offended when you call them scum

-regardless of alignment. Its a maturity thing and depends on the playerlist I guess.

?????

[Nero Cain]

Why are you taking two unrealated posts and ???? @ me?

[Krazy]

You called him scum and then in literally your next post insisted it's rude to call people scum. Just seemed weird man.

[Lalendra]

You called him scum and then in literally your next post insisted it's rude to call people scum. Just seemed weird man.

He didn't say it's rude to call people scum. That's part of the game. He said people get offended when you call them that, which is silly because again, it's part of the game.

Honestly skipped half of the back and forth between Tchill and Oath because they're both getting toxic and I don't want to deal.

VOTE: Tchill

If this flips town, we lynch Oath with fire tomorrow.

[Oath]

Lalendra, what have I done that's toxic? I want us to win. I'm not being mean. We're still people and the idea that I'm toxic is hurtful. I get it from TChill because he's scumflailing but why You? I might be annoying but toxic? :/

[Tchill13]

Why do I have to be lynched first? I have a better, unbiased, case on oath today than oath on me d1. She was clearly biased in her push anyway. I'm not biased. She is.

[Tchill13]

Nero I'm not offended. I'm not a child. I hardly ever get offended.

Why am I scum? I'm scum because I'm offended I was called scum? You just said both alignments get offended at being called scum so that should be NAI.

I'd say that's another weak case but your case is simply missing. It's not there.

[Tchill13]

how can i be biased? I sorted multiple ppl. I took notes that I shared with town in hopes town would be in a bteer position. I did not withhold info in the form of reads and notes for myself only, I shared in hopes it would help town.

Oath refuses to share her thoughts, refuses to sort, expects us to believe she's a genius that caught scum her first try without revealing her thoughts on anyone else, expects us to believe there's no reason for scum to claim vt pg 1 (there clearly is). She stated she knew she would be a liability endgame by starting her tunnel, which shows she's not willing to work with town.

She's biased in the sense she hasn't looked at the other players. I've looked at everyone i'm capable of. Had discussions about them.

i am not biased here.

[Krazy]

Ok, still re-reading stuff, but I wanted to address this tchill/oath thing, since my reaction to that has to deal more with general principle than specific evidence.

1. I feel like the only useful information to be gained from their interaction is that between the two, one is definitely town.
2. I feel like the likelihood it is two town tunneling on each other is 8-10% more likely that one is mafia and one is town.
3. Therefore, I think that lynching between the pair of them is statistically the worst decision we could make today.

Oath began tunneling tchill day 1, and at that time, Oath had pretty much no real information. Oath's chances of randomly tunneling on mafia at that point was 1/4. Therefore, let's just say for the sake of argument, the chance of tchill being mafia was objectively speaking 25%.

So, let's consider:
tchill: Initially 25%

And between tchill and oath, I would say the chances of both being mafia is 0%.

This may sound strange, but to me this says that the chances of tchill being maf today is actually 12.5%. I might come back to this number because it seems low but I believe that's what my premises have left me with.

Now, from there, if you are a regular player, you are looking at three populations:

Known town:
Lalendra
"Krazy" [replace "myself" for you]

The tchill/oath pair, of which one is definitely town, one of which was initially 25% chance to be maf:
Tchill13 -- 12.5% mafia chance (because we are using oath's initial chances rather than today's, and then dividing by 2 since among the 2 at least one is town)
Oath -- 3/8 --> / 2 = 18.7% mafia chance (because we are using today's chances divided by 2)

The rest of the population: 37.5% chance
Sergtacos
Mumble
Yuurei
Nero Cain
ofrhz
Boris
osuka

When I get back from work, I will begin working on my case against Mumble. But in the meantime, I would like you guys to seriously consider the possibility that lynching between Tchill and Oath is the worst possible idea for today.

In summary, I'd like to repeat my main points:
-The strongest conclusion from the tchill/oath interaction is that at least one is town
-As a sub-population of the town, this means both are statistically less likely to be mafia than anyone else
-The chance that they are both town remains quite possible
-Therefore, we should focus on someone else today

Thank you for your time.

[Nero Cain]

That's some really bad discrediting. So Oath didn't have a guilty on tchill d1 she (and I) can still scum read his scummy play.

[osuka]

ive lost all hope of actually analyzing everything i havent so i'm picking it up 5 pages prior to hammer and moving it from there