Transformers Mafia - Dinobots STRONGEST!


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Post Post #1200 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:15 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 1189, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 1179, the worst wrote:I literally thought I was a mafia traitor until last night sooooo anyone who's townreading me probably needs to do a quick hard reset :lol:
is this a scumclaim? i was already starting to think you might be scum, so official
FoS
on the worst.

@ft, you have some interesting points, however i felt you went to an exhausting level of detail for your calculations as if you’d bet everything in this game that this game is multiball —> which again concerns me. it’s totally possible we have a multiball setup, it’s just i have not reached that conclusion myself.

is there a possibility that one single scum team killed dgb day 1 and killed rc night 1, but someone who is relatively inexperienced with fate vigged him n1?
There is a chance that Fate was vigged, just an extremely low one imo.

People who I am almost certain would not vig Fate:
Antihero
Fundamental Theorem (because I wouldn't do it in this game as I already stated---much better vig targets imo)
Lady Lambdadelta
Papa Zito
Spiffeh
Rb (I'm sure they've played with Fate before)

People who I am very confident would not vig Fate (based on join date):
BlueBloodedToffee
Brian Skies
Creature
Gammagooey
Garmr
MariaR
Porkens
Princess Celestia (Seems like an alt imo--if not, I would be wrong about this.)
Prof Fridays
Toogeloo
Dramonic

People who might vig Fate (based on join date):
Gamma Emerald (???)
Skygazer
UnrealSeal
Vecna (???)
Stungun0404
the worst (They haven't really played a lot until recently I believe (as in about a year or so ago))
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Post Post #1201 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:17 pm

Post by the worst »

I know Fate by reputation and reading old games and am happy to say I would NOT lolvig Fate d1
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Post Post #1202 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:18 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 1198, stungun0404 wrote:
In post 1191, the worst wrote:how do you figure that's a scumclaim?0
well, i have an idea of your gameplay, having overseen a scum game of yours and played in a marathon game where you were scum, and i think this is something you’d pull as it seems within your scumrange to make a statement like that. you have a tendency to make statements as scum from my memory that intend to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes precisely like the one you made there, so i can only assume you might be scum :lol:
Yeah, except this really does seem a genuine mistake.

(In particular, I misread the win condition as originally meaning Decepticons were scum.)
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Post Post #1203 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:22 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 1110, Fundamental Theorem wrote:
In post 1067, Spiffeh wrote:If people are going to keep voting in favor of killing the obvious town player I'm probably just gonna stop posting and pray that I get night killed

It would be one thing if Porkens did this and Anti was contributing in a way I expect town!him to be contributing, but Anti has done next to nothing and Porkens has basically claimed a power role and again, would DEFINITELY not have dueled in this manner as scum.
Spiffeh, aside from the audacity of the duel, why do you think Porkens is town here?
(Spiffeh still needs to answer this.)
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Post Post #1204 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:23 pm

Post by stungun0404 »

^ fair enough. but the worst can be pretty hard to nab when he is scum, because it’s one thing being convinced he’s scum, but it’s another deal getting him lynched as scum. i learned that the hard way in my marathon game with him, where i was a doublevoter (surely, you remember this ircher, as you were the mod)! his play in the scum game of his i overseen just happened to further my stance about him being a pretty good scumplayer. he can make almost anything look genuine as scum

but i’ll digress on him for now. i really have not seen his townplay.


and also ft, your theory also assumes someone didn’t genuinely find fate scummy.
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Post Post #1205 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:28 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 1050, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 1036, UnrealSeal wrote:
In post 1031, Spiffeh wrote:@UnrealSeal I don't see why you're not really considering the possibility that they are dumb!town?

I'd also think that Ircher would have one of Porkens' scum buddies in mind to duel if Porkens were to sacrifice himself in order to prevent Ircher's ability from activating. Who do you think that would be?

I feel like you're reaching to paint Porkens' move in a scummy light and ignoring the easier conclusion to draw: that they are town, weren't really paying attention, and just wanted to use the role that they've been hinting at
I have considered that possibility which is why I originally voted Neither.
But combined with Porkens refusing to role claim, I think the possibility he's scum is also really good.

in my mind both players are scummy but I know that they can't both be scum (unless theres a Traitor or it's scum v. sk which I doubt) so I'm really weighing up who I has the higher chance to flip scum and that's Porkens

but the real answer is I refuse to live in a reality where any one town player is this stupid
WHAT

SOMEONE READ THIS AND TELL ME IF THIS MAKES ZERO SENSE LIKE I THOUGHT
(Eh, this comes pretty close to zero sense imo. I would think that a great degree of rewording or clarifying would help out a lot here.)
The Fundamental Theorem of Arithmetic states that every integer greater than one can be expressed as a unique (up to ordering) product of primes.
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Post Post #1206 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by the worst »

just don't fall victim to confirmation bias Stungun, players who've played with me a lot would have had their skin crawling by my play in that marathon game. there's a few players here who know my play well and a few actual friends of mine in this list so I need to tread carefully. :>

I actually think you're town for this tho
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Post Post #1207 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:32 pm

Post by rb »

im at work for the next 5 days and im working like 11 hour days

can someone just tell me who to vote, and next day phase can we not fucking duel in the first 24hrs

ive barely read and i dont have any real opinion on antihero/porkens beyond theyve both barely posted and i dont care which one lives, and i dont see myself having time in the near future to figure that out, so ill defer to a townread on this one
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Post Post #1208 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:33 pm

Post by the worst »

I stand by my neither vote TBH.
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Post Post #1209 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:35 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 1204, stungun0404 wrote:^ fair enough. but the worst can be pretty hard to nab when he is scum, because it’s one thing being convinced he’s scum, but it’s another deal getting him lynched as scum. i learned that the hard way in my marathon game with him, where i was a doublevoter (surely, you remember this ircher, as you were the mod)! his play in the scum game of his i overseen just happened to further my stance about him being a pretty good scumplayer. he can make almost anything look genuine as scum

but i’ll digress on him for now. i really have not seen his townplay.


and also ft, your theory also assumes someone didn’t genuinely find fate scummy.
(That's why I'm not giving the worst a free pass here.)

As for the theory, I find it really hard to believe someone would vig Fate for any reason besides policy-shoots on lurkers. Fate didn't really post much at all, and someone would have to really explain to me why they thought Fate's posts were scummy enough to deserve to be vigged.
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Post Post #1210 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:36 pm

Post by rb »

ok i read some posts and i dont like tw's self-meta defence

all i have time for
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Post Post #1211 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:36 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 1207, rb wrote:im at work for the next 5 days and im working like 11 hour days

can someone just tell me who to vote, and next day phase can we not fucking duel in the first 24hrs

ive barely read and i dont have any real opinion on antihero/porkens beyond theyve both barely posted and i dont care which one lives, and i dont see myself having time in the near future to figure that out, so ill defer to a townread on this one
Antihero or neither. I really don't care, but some other people do.

As for tomorrow, UnrealSeal needs rope. Their D1 ISO wasn't good imo, and their D2 ISO is zero improvement from Day 1.
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Post Post #1212 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:37 pm

Post by stungun0404 »

In post 1207, rb wrote:im at work for the next 5 days and im working like 11 hour days

can someone just tell me who to vote, and next day phase can we not fucking duel in the first 24hrs

ive barely read and i dont have any real opinion on antihero/porkens beyond theyve both barely posted and i dont care which one lives, and i dont see myself having time in the near future to figure that out, so ill defer to a townread on this one
what about anti? if you’re inclined to think i’m town, that’d be the right move imo.
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Post Post #1213 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:37 pm

Post by rb »

im actually not a fan of a neither vote here bc unlike fb/katsuki who i thought both had a decent chance of flipping scum, i dont have an opinion on either of these yet

ill vote one or the other, unless someone can convince me that they're both likely scum

k srsly gtg
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Post Post #1214 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:38 pm

Post by the worst »

they're never scum together fwiw

maybe I'm a dick? I'm voting both unless someone convinces me one is town
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Post Post #1215 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by rb »

if u can just @rb me and ill try just read all the posts addressing me and make a decision and vote asap before deadline
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Post Post #1216 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:41 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 960, Gammagooey wrote:I'm gonna be going off of mostly memory for probably the entire game b/c it's pretty much already too big to go back and find shit I want to bring up easily

So I remember several people mentioning a scumread on UnrealSeal - why? he's not ULTRA-TOWN but seems like he's being pretty transparent with how he's feeling about the game and that feels pretty good to me

I'd agree that Antihero's posting doesn't feel great yet

Something to note is that it seems like we've got a lot of repeating roles from Dynasty Warriors, but some of the alignments are going to be shuffled around - MariaR's "I just win when someone duels me" ability was from a 3rd party multi-lyncher, Fundamental's was mine (town), there was a dayvig (though Vi-town's was public that game), and there was a scum role that redirected all actions including duels away from them that would HAVE to be lynched normally instead of using the duel mechanic. That last one is reeeal important to remember in case it's on scum/3rd party again.

I'm not super thrilled with Fundamental's posts aside from his readslist but I also don't think he should die today so shrugs. I do want him to get a claim from whoever he's seriously considering dueling before the duel starts though.

Last thing is I don't remember if I mentioned this earlier but Skygazer feels really town for how she went about claiming
Is it just me, or does this post have give off scum!vibes?
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Post Post #1217 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:44 pm

Post by the worst »

I'm uhhhhhh certainly not townreading gammagooey here
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Post Post #1218 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:47 pm

Post by stungun0404 »

@ft: meh, i’m null on that post. the claim part could hypothetically be trying to protect a scum partner, though, if he is scum.
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Post Post #1219 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:54 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

In post 1116, Prof Fridays wrote:
In post 1111, Fundamental Theorem wrote:
In post 1076, Prof Fridays wrote:Examining the motivations for dueling seems like it leads you invariably toward a town read on Porkens.
But isn’t that a WIFOM argument?
Not a true WIFOM, no (a true WIFOM being 50/50). You could say it's 70/30 WIFOM in favor of town. I mean, many arguments are WIFOM with varying probabilities. In this case we're dealing with more than just two men and two glasses of wine.
I'd say it's more like 60/40 WIFOM in favor of town (at best and just based on the probability being greater that someone is town than scum) which I don't consider high enough odds to not be in favor of just policy-lynching Porkens.
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Post Post #1220 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:56 pm

Post by Garmr »

In post 997, stungun0404 wrote:p-edit: and... another crapshoot

but still, some questions i came up with that i’d like answers to (each has a clear purpose):
@spiffeh, is there any particular purpose for you stating you have quite a few townleans/townreads, but are primarily withholding who they are on?
@garmr, where do you stand regarding mariar at the moment and why?

@mariar, where do you stand regarding garmr at the moment and why?
@princess celestia, do you have any current gamereads? i see only your rvs vote against gammagooey so far.
@creature, other than your townread of toogeloo in (yay we both agree!), do you have any other townleans/townreads?


and now that i see this duel
VOTE: Neither, the problem i have with porkens duel is he seems to be up-to-date with the thread enough to know it was proper time to duel, and in spite of clear majority opposition to duelling that doesn’t involve it being initiated by fundamental theorem or skygazer this day phase, he does it anyway. first impression is that this has a scummy feel to me
She's as town as DGB was and I thought that since day 1 she just looks scummy to the average player.
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Post Post #1221 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:59 pm

Post by Fundamental Theorem »

Spoiler: Reads
Confirmed Town
(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Fundamental Theorem (100%) : Role PM

DrippingGoofball (100%) : Laserbeak, Decepticon Mini-Cassette Reconnaissance (Shot day 1).

Firebringer (100%) : Onslaught, Combaticon Strategist (Lost duel day 1).

Katsuki (100%) : Dirge, Seeker Doppleganger (Lost duel day 1).

Fate (100%) : Swindle, Combaticon Profiteer (Killed night 1).

RadiantCowbells (100%) : Bombshell, Insecticon Neutralizer (Killed night 1).


Likely Town
(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town
(60%-84% Confidence)
Creature (+61%) : He is engaged in the game, and he really feels like town in general.

Null
(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Antihero (+15%) : I like (from an alignment-determining standpoint.)

Dramonic (+5%) : Haven't really done much this game, but I agree with their Seal scumread (as in the scumread itself, not the reasons which weren't really given except an associative tell.)

The Worst (+3%) : I can believe they originally thought they were a mafia traitor at first, but I'm not 100% convinced this is town yet.

Gamma Emerald (+2%) : The 180 in is pretty bad imo, but the rest of the ISO seems pretty nullish/semi-decent.

Papa Zito (-15%) : I don't really like , and I find a little suspicious, but I'm not convinced either is alignment-indicative.

Neutral
(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Skygazer (+49%) : They left a pretty good early impression. That said, I'm not sure what to think about and . seems bad, but I'm actually kinda inclined to lean towards town for that particular post. is just bad as it tries to assign motivation to the ordering when said motivation likely doesn't exist. I did like their posts at the start of day 2.

Lady Lambdadelta (+44%) : Despite being completely absent day 1, I've liked their contributions for day 2 in terms of their alignment. For instance, registers as a town post to me (though I know that Lambdadelta is known for using a great degree of AtE.) and have a town!vibe as well.

Spiffeh (+40%) : Eh, they seem town for the time being. I'm inclined to townread them somewhat for their argument that Porkens is town because scum wouldn't duel, even if I don't really agree with the logic 100%.

Garmr (+35%) : Their posts in general have been pretty good.

Brian Skies (-31%) : I really dislike their where they ask us to ignore a vote of theirs because it was simply done to be aggravating. really pings, but I'm not sure why. Their comment in (and a similar comment or two later on) also didn't really sound like town. There was also the fact that they were really pressing to be a sacrifice in a duel with me at the start of day 2--it's odd to say the least, but makes me lean towards town (with respects to that). I'm still getting an overall scum-feel here.

rb (-35%) : Their posts in general just ping me, though it may just be me disagreeing with their initial reads (and then tunneling them to an extent).

Porkens (-38%) : I don't like how they spend a bunch of their first few posts just quoting stuff and calling it scum, but that may just be a playstyle issue. Also, how does my make me scum? I'm also really annoyed by the sheer anti-town nature of their duel day 2, but I'm not naive enough to assume it *must* come from scum.

Stungun0404 (-43%) : There seems to be quite a few IIoA posts in this ISO. For instance, (about being familiar with Creature's meta) and (setup spec about the number of scum) are examples of IIoA. I also have a serious issue with their reads in . And I dislike as well... (Their day 2 posts seem a bit better, but meh...)

MariaR (-44%) : I really dislike . While I don't want to resurrect that argument, MariaR's behavior on page 18 or so pinged me as well. The fact that MariaR in says Katsuki's behavior is not scum-indicative doesn't really say much about Katsuki's alignment. In particular, with the way MariaR is defending Katsuki, I would think they would (as town) point out how Katsuki is town this game, not how they aren't necessarily scum. Their day 2 posts don't really seem that much better.

Prof Fridays (-45%) : really rubs me the wrong way. does as well--I think it's the apathetic feel to the comment that gives me scum!feels. really sounds like scum that *knows* Porkens is town.

Toogeloo (-47%) : Their posts in general strike a scum!chord to me. The thing that seems to stick out about their posts is that they seem to be LAMIST in nature. For instance, has that LAMIST feel. has that feel as well. (Note: While nothing has really changed my mind about this slot, the confidence rating dropped significantly because I think I may have been biasing myself too much against them.)

Gammagooey (-49%) : Their day 1 contributions were minimal. feels off in a way. I'm also not sure what to think about the continued reference to Dynasty Warriors, but I have to admit, I'd probably lean towards town on that aspect. gives scum!vibes as well. is objectively bad play. I also don't see what about Porken's claim makes Gammagooey 180 in .

Leaning Scum
(60%-75% Confidence)
UnrealSeal (-70%) : I have many issues with this ISO. For instance, is an objectively bad post and feels like scum!Seal trying to pocket and/or buddy Creature. (This is regardless of the fact that it was an exaggeration.) pings me as well. I don't really like because saying someone pings due to asking for a speedlynch sounds much more like a policy reason than a legitimate scumping. Apparently, it doesn't take long for their pings to turn into a full-fledged scumread in , but that doesn't mean the reasoning really got any better. Their defense of Katsuki in posts like strikes me as being too forceful/aggressive. is really bad when you consider other posts they have made (like ). Then we also have posts like (bad logic; get the feeling that Unreal is purposely trying to paint this a certain way) and (where they admit they aren't interested in sorting...) As far as day 2 goes, their ISO really hasn't improved that much. Lady Lamdadelta brought up some decent points against them.
​​
Likely Scum
(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist
Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player.
Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.


Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

(Updated reads--a good portion is the same from my previous reads, but I did update a large portion of it as well.)
The Fundamental Theorem of Arithmetic states that every integer greater than one can be expressed as a unique (up to ordering) product of primes.
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Post Post #1222 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:03 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

I don't play on Sundays, that's family day. I decided to give the topic a gander though before bed, and I really don't know what I want to add right now, but know that we are literally on the verge of making the exact same mistake we did on Day 1.

Porkens has been playing Mafia long enough to know exactly what he's doing... as any alignment. Psychologically, he could be gambling on the idea that town would read a town motivation in his actions, regardless of whether he is town, scum, third party, or alien overlord. His duel is selfish and anti-town.

Vote: Antihero


---

I'd like to propose that we do duels against lynch leaders from now on, not whimsical tantrum duels. Duels should be someone who hasn't dueled before against a plurality lynch target, before they are hammered, preferably against foregone conclusions, or at least as close as we people are willing to wait.

Two days have now been lost to discussion in a 28 player game and have been drawn to the focus of maybe less than 10 people in total. There are no associations to find, no stances being made, and town bodies continue to pile up.
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Post Post #1223 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:05 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

If we continue to play in the manner we have been, we'll need town powers to game solve at this rate.
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Post Post #1224 (ISO) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:06 pm

Post by Skygazer »

andddddd my toog townread is gone

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