Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Punreader]

it's a pity that

your own reasons

above for doubting ankamius are also not alignment indicative, to some extent.

Yes, which is why Ankamius has remained a townread of mine.

I am quite aware that my reasons for doubting Ankamius are, more than likely, paranoia.

It is why I haven't been sharing them until now. I do not share paranoia-based reads because if they are paranoia then it is probably worth ignoring.

But with the play in the last little while, from Ankamius prioritizing a finished game over this one to her stances once here, it was worth at least a mention of where I have been on her and why my townread isn't as strong as it once was.

She is still a townread.

She is not as strong of a townread as I had before, and thus, not as strong of a townread as I would prefer.

[Punreader]

i just want to see your slot flipped and dead! it'll also be really good, because, we're 6 at evens and it'll be MYLO which is worse than LYLO, unless I can a protective quest to work and also block a kill, which is tough too

Yeah the problem there is I am the singular source of a method to get off of mylo.

I am considering not announcing my hide and deliberately trying to target the nightkill, just to provide a 3p lylo if we don't lynch correctly today. (A change from my prior strategy of targeting players the pun would have to go out of their way to nightkill.)

[wilky]

Right these last few pages are screwing with me now.

@rmoj are you now saying that the quest was for a cop to a random player then?
@pun surely you finding the evidence that maria and projectmatt did fight your pushes does help find that last scum. Maybe not for you finding the last scum but it could help rmoj (and maybe others) clear you as town.

Ugh, I think the last scum is in pun/rmoj/dunn which is 1 more player than I came into the day suspecting.

[Punreader]

@pun surely you finding the evidence that maria and projectmatt did fight your pushes does help find that last scum. Maybe not for you finding the last scum but it could help rmoj (and maybe others) clear you as town.

The evidence exists with context not available by iso. That is why it is not worth doing now, and is something quite easy to do with a (re)read of the game. MariaR in particular is a scummer who fairly often does not utilize the quote tag, thus, making it particularly difficult to find full context for her given actions/statements, but even projectmatt's content is not readily obvious through an iso.

If it were, then I'd pull it up right now. It'd just take too much time for me to locate manually.

But I know for a fact it exists. I know it exists because I was there when it happened and I remember it happening and everyone should be able to remember similarly.

[Ankamius]

I would also like to emphasize that, were I pun here, I'd had to have double-bussed from the onset as projectmatt and MariaR were suspicions of mine since the moment I replaced in and I was advocating for their deaths since the moment I was a player. (You will not find a player who pushed projectmatt harder than I did; you will not find a player more adamant we lynch MariaR.) I place value on play in most situations and my play is strongly evident of me not being pun as I have a strong record of not bussing in most situations, if I am capable of avoiding it.

The things you hold suspicion of me on, of me not following through on a promise to provide more recent content, you also know to be not alignment indicative, or if indicative of alignment at all, indicative of me holding a town alignment as I am atrocious at providing followthrough to my promises.

I've taken both of these into account, Pun. I even stated before when I talked about your recent content that it's not actually indicative by itself, but I'm starting to see roughly what plan you'd have if you were scum this game.

I think it's entirely possible that you were scum this game for a few reasons:

1. On day two, the playerlist was still fairly high caliber. You needed to be able to fool not only myself who had a strong scumread on your slot, but Ouroboros/Impossibear (both of which had fairly strong reads and were strongly townread throughout the game), conftown/obvtown and active Kaede Akamatsu/OnTheMark, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, who is at least believably a higher tier player, and probably others that I'm not quite aware of your history with.
2. Your claim was entirely locked in when you replaced in. While I don't think it's the type of role you would want to have out there until you absolutely have to as town, it still provided a pretty convenient shield to hide behind so you could get as much towncred as possible. Without this shield, there's no way you could get away with still being alive all this way into the game.
3. This gamestate is starting to look like something you'd cook up to coast on your towncred with. All the competent correct players are dead, followed by the player with the strongest PR, then the player holding town together. The only thing that gives me pause here is that I think Alchemist21 isn't someone you'd exactly be chomping at the bit to kill night 6 (over myself and REALMEN at least, I know you are well aware I can completely solve the game out of nowhere in LyLo or the day before). So you have your shield intact along with your bussing towncred, most of the slots that could see through it are dead, and the slots that are left alive are the ones that were apathetic for most of the game and likely to go wherever the momentum of the day went, giving you options of where you want to push.
4. I've been doing my own VCA and I think your slot has the sketchiest day 1-3, along with Dunnstral. I can go into this more later, but the part that is really screwing with me regarding this is that wilky's placement via that is a massive question mark and just with raw information, he's the best lynch today. However, I don't trust that I'll still be alive tomorrow whether or not you're scum because if my deductions are mostly correct at that point, it's not that big of a stretch to come to the conclusion that I'll have the last scum caught on day 8 and the game will be harder to win for them as a result.

[Ankamius]

BTW I think the gambit strongly shows REALMEN as town, but that was already pretty close to clearly true already

I don't know what exactly he would expect to happen by throwing his neck out there like that as scum

[Ankamius]

ah jesus damnit, mastina if you're scum here you're good. i didn't actually consider alchemist dying yesterday when i gave the quest and my conftown going to waste so i have no result and no conftown today and that is sad

i retract the above, it's just a gambit, now I have doubts that punreader is scum.

however, he's still my top scumread

And you wonder why people want to lynch you.
I wish I could let them, but alas.

My goal is to lynch pun, not lynch the players who we wish were pun.

the best players aren't the ones that die early. the best players are the ones that can live till endgame without getting lynched or dying to nightkill and make a larger positive difference to the game

what's the point in being the most 'respected' and admired town player if you get n1'd every game and make a minimal impact?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The best town isn't the one with the best reads, the best town is the one that most furthers the town win condition, which is a lot more nuanced and easier to do the longer you stay alive. The town I would be most impressed with in a game is the one that correctly lynches scum over and over again, yet is also able to manipulate the gamestate in a way where killing them isn't the best idea until it's too late.

[Ankamius]

Ankamius

should

know all of this already.

That I wouldn't fakeclaim.
That I am town by play.
That the reasons she's suspicious for me aren't indicative of alignment because they happen literally every game. (Including in mhsmith's game; the number of promises I broke there is quite high.)

As a result, she's a candidate for being pun taking a more arbiter stance.

I should mention that I have a large bias here.

One of the main reasons Ankamius has, consistently, been the VT I've most townread is because of her play in a recent pungame, Minuet's Trio. I felt her comments there, found here and here, indicated that to be her main experience with being pun since returning from hiatus.

Additional reasoning for believing her to be town was how there was a point in the game where our reads were almost

precisely

linked, for similar and yet not identical reasoning. Her stances having been mirrors of my own was an indicator I believed pointed to her being town.

Counterbalancing this, however, is the aforementioned factors above, where she isn't treating me the way I feel she

should

be. Additionally, it did not escape my notice that near the end when projectmatt was at risk of death more seriously, she had what amounted to a flip-out and almost entire read-inversion, where she did essentially everything except advocate for his lynch in spite of previously having done so.

One of the main reasons I wish to get a (re)read of the game is to check that section out again to better define what it means.

This is my other scum game since returning from hiatus. Every other completed game is a town game. One thing I will point out is that I made a pretty elaborate case in LyLo that I don't think I've ever done before and probably never will do again. As either alignment.

[Ankamius]

But I will say this:

Additionally, it did not escape my notice that near the end when projectmatt was at risk of death more seriously, she had what amounted to a flip-out and almost entire read-inversion, where she did essentially everything except advocate for his lynch in spite of previously having done so.

You know very very well this is strong evidence for me being town this game and it's really really worrying that you think it's more scum-indicative.

[Ankamius]

But. Regarding how I've been treating you this game:

It's far more useful for me to let you do you own thing and judge it from afar without tainting your conclusions with my own thoughts. This is exactly how I eventually concluded that you were town, because in a gamestate where my reads were proven correct over and over again and where I was blindingly obvious town, you rallied around me and tried to work with me and keep me from apathying out, which is absolutely never what you would do if you were scum. Yet I gave you the freedom to make that choice yourself without pressure from me (except for when I was sheeping ETL, but that just made it more strongly town-indicative if anything.)

You know where my weaknesses are and what buttons to push to accentuate them. It's not difficult, the pieces for keeping that in place were already there. However, one thing I did misjudge is that I no longer believe that you necessarily need a plan to keep me from being a strong force in the game since the first two days without your influence was more than enough to do that itself. All you'd really need to do after getting rid of all the other strong slots that would catch you is to both engineer a gamestate where I'm unlikely to catch you and where I would be gunning for a slot that isn't you.

That's entirely doable for you.

[Ankamius]

it's a pity that

your own reasons

above for doubting ankamius are also not alignment indicative, to some extent.

Yes, which is why Ankamius has remained a townread of mine.

I am quite aware that my reasons for doubting Ankamius are, more than likely, paranoia.

It is why I haven't been sharing them until now. I do not share paranoia-based reads because if they are paranoia then it is probably worth ignoring.

But with the play in the last little while, from Ankamius prioritizing a finished game over this one to her stances once here, it was worth at least a mention of where I have been on her and why my townread isn't as strong as it once was.

She is still a townread.

She is not as strong of a townread as I had before, and thus, not as strong of a townread as I would prefer.

This isn't exactly fair; labyrinth was a game I poured a lot of time into and didn't really have an outlet to dump my thoughts into since there wasn't a dead thread. Plus I'm almost always very active in postgames of games I'm in, which you should be very well aware of.

[Ankamius]

My biggest struggle this game is that this gamestate is almost completely impossible for me to decipher between the awkwardly timed scum lynches (day one is unreadable for me, day four is useless to me, day two is mostly useless in general, and day three I was way off in my read).

This type of endgame is not exactly much to work off of since Ouroboros, Impossibear, OnTheMark, Kaede Akamatsu, and Alchemist21 are fairly universal kills that just about anyone would do. The rest of the alive slots are the ones that were in the background throughout most of the game or hardcore lurkers, in which suddenly being active and trying to lead isn't necessarily a good idea (outside of Pun, where it would be a pretty significant scumtell to actively stop, tbh). Normally I'd think my confidence throughout day 5 that I'd have this game solved would be warranted, but I kind of underestimated how broken this gamestate is, sadly.

I do strongly think that from what I remember combined with what the vote counts indicate, both REALMEN and Prof Fridays are strongly town. I really want to have wilky sorted either way because he has the weirdest locations both for where he is on the votecounts as well as the wagons on him looking like they can be indicative of either alignment.

Dunnstral had some worrying moments, but Tchill had the most moments where he made sense as the last scum, especially under a REALMEN/Fridays town scenario.

The main reason I'm still hesitating is because I don't think I'd live it down if I reasoned myself to a Punreader-scum theory and it turned out to be wrong, especially if I was killed tonight anyways.

[Dunnstral]

Who could it be besides me or Punreader, Ank?

[Ankamius]

If it's not either of you two, it's wilky

[Prof Fridays]

Oh boy, I missed a lot. Apologies. I'm trying to keep up this week while also moving.

Not sure I have anything all that meaningful to add, other than I would align myself strongly with Ankamius' positions, who has risen to my most confident town-read apart from RMOJ, which would place scum in one of Dunnstral/Punreader/wilky. I wish I could be of more use, but I'm a bit hamstrung with this being my first game in four years, so it's hard to scum-read based on experience, if that makes sense.

Brain says Dunnstral is a safer lynch today; gut says Punreader is the scarier scum prospect.

@Ankamius/RMOJ

Supposing we miss scum today to a Punreader or Dunnstral town-flip (the two that should be on the chopping block IMO if they're not already), I imagine NK is in one of your two - what would be your next steps/thoughts for tomorrow? I could use any help I can get. I'm afraid of being a prime duping candidate in mylo/lylo. Also, do things change significantly on a Punreader/Dunnstral town-flip? That could be something to consider regarding today's lynch choice.

[wilky]

If it's not either of you two, it's wilky

Albeit this is wifom but scum!me fake claiming a cop role would have at least outed an inno by now.

[wilky]

At some point today i'm going to have a look at pun/projectmatts interactions. I think maria's interactions with pun won't show to much because maria became caught scum b

[wilky]

ebwop: At some point today i'm going to have a look at pun/projectmatts interactions. I think maria's interactions with pun won't show to much because maria became caught scum but i'll have a look at interactions pre-caught scum maria and see what I find.

I still want to know what rmoj claims his quest yesterday was now before I go any further on that slot.

[wilky]

@dunn who do you think last scum is? And why did you risk the vote on pun before any discussion was had?

[Ankamius]

I'd honestly just go about the same process I've been doing both today and yesterday.

Look at VCs
Cross-reference what each slot is doing with the flipped scum
Find patterns
etc.
Cross-reference with what I remember having happened in the game to see if it makes sense as town or scum

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

The only thing that gives me pause here is that I think Alchemist21 isn't someone you'd exactly be chomping at the bit to kill night 6 (over myself and REALMEN at least, I know you are well aware I can completely solve the game out of nowhere in LyLo or the day before). So you have your shield intact along with your bussing towncred, most of the slots that could see through it are dead, and the slots that are left alive are the ones that were apathetic for most of the game and likely to go wherever the momentum of the day went, giving you options of where you want to push.

Alchemist was killed last night because he was going to become conftown due to successful activation of my quest (his alignment would be sent to a random player in the game) and mastina could not let that happen.

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

ebwop: At some point today i'm going to have a look at pun/projectmatts interactions. I think maria's interactions with pun won't show to much because maria became caught scum but i'll have a look at interactions pre-caught scum maria and see what I find.

I still want to know what rmoj claims his quest yesterday was now before I go any further on that slot.

i think knowing what my quest does today, i'm going to choose to not reveal the reward.

[Ankamius]

That's the thing, REALMEN. Does she think that's more dangerous than you or myself randomly solving the game?

[Prof Fridays]

I mean, it's easier to cast doubt on someone who's not conftown. I think RMOJ is right. Also, if scum!Punreader was trying to push the "Scum is VT" narrative, it wouldn't make sense to kill you, Ankamius.

[Ankamius]

Oh, trust me

Pun pushing me as scum is suicide