Mini 2017: Encore Mafia - Now Without Cults [Endgame]

[implosion]

*twitch* I genuinely forgot about that.

This is why skimming hurriedly to provide content post-prod is a bad idea.

This is probably the one post he's made today that makes me inclined toward town.

[implosion]

Also mastina, I don't understand how you can put stock into this meta knowledge of Pine having an inclination against bussing meaning that he's town, in a game where if he is scum he hasn't bussed at all...

...and simultaneously call me scum for bussing, when I've demonstrated that I generally have a predilection against bussing and generally (not always, but generally) only do it when I think it's necessary for very specific reason, e.g. in the one game that you listed that you seem to be extrapolating my entire scum meta from (floral mafia).

Like I understand why you're reading Pine as town based on that meta knowledge you have on him, if that meta knowledge is accurate. I get that it's not just about the votes that he's made but the degree to which he's trying to sway wagons. But if you are town, and you're putting stock in this meta on him and putting stock in one of four games that I've played recently while refusing to put stock in the other scum games I've played recently... if you're putting stock in the ONE recent scum game out of those four that had factors in it that significantly differentiated it from this one, namely the one of those four scum games where I was under heavy suspicion and pressure for most of day one... then you seriously have some damn strong confirmation bias.

I guess the only thing you've said about that game was the part about voting a scumbuddy early, but I think I've demonstrated that among those games as a whole I have a pretty solid disinclination toward bussing as scum.

[implosion]

Okay actually. Looking at mara's iso.

Post 139:

Mmmmm..

Martina/mutant/????

Awoo probably town, koki town?, pine town

VOTE: Mastina

I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I partially caught one of mara's scumbuddies off of this tell in 2013...
in this post, Mara is posting and it's actually remarkably similar. What I said about that post in a later day in that game was:

It'd be mildly strange if, in a vaguely opening-post like this, PL neglected to mention either of their scumpartners. Guess what four people that they mentioned have all flipped town... there's also tammy sorta but we all know she's town.

The logic doesn't work in the same way; the logic there was that PL scum implies Fonz scum. But there's still some validity here, because Mara does make these "list of people" early posts as scum, and does sometimes make them containing exactly one scum. In fact, in both of these posts, there's a list of 2 people and a list of 3 people, together containing exactly one scum in the middle of the list of 3 people. There's a good chance there's a tendency for her to do something like this as scum. The implication doesn't completely work in the opposite direction, but there is a bayesian probability argument that they'd be correlated.

As for other things in her ISO that look sort of suspiciously scum->scum...
273, the phrasing of "I think koki is town and am sure that these other people are town" seems very sensible as a scum hedge. The next post she lists a big list of everyone else as a lynchpool, citing 3 top picks one of whom is espeonage. She 'hammers' espeonage later. Possibly a knowing fakehammer, possibly scum trying to gain towncred from what she saw as an inevitable hammer, or possibly town trying to quickhammer but I really see no reason at all for town to want to quickhammer a wagon that nearly entirely formed on that page. When push comes to shove she eventually switches to BNL after being convinced that the wagon might have momentum.

All of her d1 scum interactions seem really really viable as s->s, though she does get some credit for putting Koki at the bottom of her reads list immediately on d2... though she did say she was going to push EP instead before she got replaced.

[implosion]

And Gamma's lurking here really doesn't inspire any confidence whatsoever. My lingering Mara townread was the reason I didn't really want that slot but Gamma's been gone for 2 days after giving basically the easiest kind of analysis in the world to give as scum. The post that I'd been townreading Mara off of is pretty mediocre too.

Gamma, claim.

[implosion]

with regards to EP, I thought post 1200 was a pretty decent indicator of town.

And Mylo I really should audit my read of (I don't know why I'm using the word audit so much here and I am aware of it but I am not going to stop) but I really don't think I'm going to wind up with a conclusion other than town.

[Awoo]

YEah! im cool with pine town. I want to lynch gamma today. I think implosion still gets lynched at some point. Probably.

[Pine]

Okay, Mastina is Town.

I will fight anyone who disagrees.

[the worst]

fiNALLY

[Awoo]

TW = matchmaker

[Awoo]

first we fell in love then he set up pine and mastina

[the worst]

huh I didn't realise you felt the same. winning~!

[BNL]

Mastina so your Pine townread is that Espeonage and Kokichi don’t seem to have been coached by scum!Pune right?

[BNL]

And Gamma's lurking here really doesn't inspire any confidence whatsoever. My lingering Mara townread was the reason I didn't really want that slot but Gamma's been gone for 2 days after giving basically the easiest kind of analysis in the world to give as scum. The post that I'd been townreading Mara off of is pretty mediocre too.

Gamma, claim.

Actually this reminds me, I was once scum with Gamma in a game, and we reached a point where we were about to lose. Gamma began to flake out of that game and requested replacement.

Gamma hasn’t posted in more than two days, so I’d see a prod there and hopefully see more from him.

[Pine]

Mastina so your Pine townread is that Espeonage and Kokichi don’t seem to have been coached by scum!Pune right?

I don't think scumastina makes those inferences, and certainly doesn't share them.

[KittyMo]

Vote Count 3.06

[5] Gamma Emerald ~ Errantparabola, Awoo, the worst, Myloninja13, Pine
[1] implosion ~ mastina
[1] Pine ~ mutantdevle

[3] Not Voting ~ BulletNLynchproof, Gamma Emerald, implosion

With

10

alive, it's

6

to lynch!

Deadline is at (expired on 2018-07-26 16:00:00)

Gamma Emerald was prodded several hours ago.

[Gamma Emerald]

I forgot about the game sorry
I'll try to finish reading scum ISOs today

[Pine]

Don't bother

VOTE: Gamma

Hammer time!

[Gamma Emerald]

I kinda like Gamma though.

okay so while scrolling to pick up where I left off I found this
mutant talk with me about this? I'd expect you to at least demand a little more from me before you toss a townlean my way.

[Gamma Emerald]

btw about that espeonage wagon, I feel scum might be why it stalled

By this, do you mean, scum on it, or scum off it?

Not sure yet cos I'm still in "read scum ISOs" stage (check the scum's wagons will definitely be my next step) but A gut statement would be scum on it cos I know Kokichi was there
though tbh I'm not

entirely

sure what the question is asking. Is it whether scum were on or off?

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: bnl

I-I hope y-you don't have a g-guilty on me. N-Not that i-im mafia or a-anything

Well I was already townreading BnL from how KO was pushing him but I guess a guilty also help clear BnL

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: mutant

Blitz time

Gonna have to check further but this mutant push may be AI for mutant (not sure which way yet)

[mutantdevle]

I kinda like Gamma though.

okay so while scrolling to pick up where I left off I found this
mutant talk with me about this? I'd expect you to at least demand a little more from me before you toss a townlean my way.

Nah.

[mutantdevle]

@Myloninja13, yes.

[implosion]

Gamma, claim.

[Awoo]

Clamma, gaim