In post 672, LuckyOtter wrote:1. How do you feel about voting Manatee?
2. Can you explain to me why you are so sure Oath is town and not scum pushing a mislynch here?
3. Can you explain to me what you think Oka's endgame strategy is? (Oath, I'd like you to answer that one as well)
1. Not that good about it. I don't really have a good reason to think Manatee is town, he very well could be scum, but it feels like a crapshoot choosing between him and MafMen and it's easy to imagine worlds where he is town against scum!Maf.
the problem is we may have to decide about him or Maf one way or the other tomorrow even if we lynch some other scum successfully today, but at least collectively we would have gained slightly more information since then.
2. Well, for starters, Oath has posted a ton of things that match up exactly with how I have been viewing the game, I've never smelled a whiff of disingenuous reasoning. Next, she's gone above and beyond to game-solve today and I don't think any of her effort has felt explicitly agenda-driven - like here's my question, why does scum!Oath with scum!MafMen go this hard to defend her buddy when she could probably take a much easier path by bussing him today and getting a mislynch on whoever's town in {GL/Otter/Oka/Manatee} tomorrow? Why does she instead go for that now when it would be much harder to fake and create so many more opportunities for her to get caught out with scummy reasoning? Why should I think her near instantaneous freakout when Oka placed an L-1 vote is because her partner was at L-1 when that would not even be a game losing lynch?
I'm never
sure
she's town but I'm never
sure
about anyone being town. She still fits a town profile better than almost every other player and I'd have to jump through far more hoops to feel good about making a towncase on virtually anyone else to take her spot instead. LikeI doubt you're gonna sell me on being more confident that someone like Manatee or Oka is town, but feel free to try?
3. I see two potential end game strategies for scum!Oka here:
1) Maf is town and the game winning mislynch, he's going for the win today on the easiest mislynch remaining - which to me is much riskier and more plausible than scum!Oath!
2) Maf is a buddy, Oka figured he was inevitably going down and is trying to bus for towncred to push town in Manatee/Otter/Anti tomorrow. Also not something I can rule out.
In post 672, LuckyOtter wrote:What I see as a very real possibility is that Oath is in a scumteam with the most lynchbaity players left, and has to work super hard to win the game right now. Especially given that one of them is never around to be able to pull off a quicklynch. Even if you don't believe this is the most likely scenario, I want you to explain to me how this could not be a plausible one.
see this is like a loosely plausible scenario but it feels so much less plausible than one where Oka is scum. Whoever is scum here (outside of Maf/Manatee) is playing a solid-to-great game, I don't see why you want me to indulge in paranoia about Oath specifically when I have more reasons to be paranoid about most everyone else. Like instead of scum!casing Oath, you're just saying "but what if she's scum?" and it feels very agenda driven. Like you think the team is Maf/Manatee/Oath? Why that team specifically instead of Maf/Manatee/Anti or Maf/Manatee/Oka?
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
