Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over

[Irrelephant11]

I mean I'm a little surprised you're townreading me, honestly. but I have never claimed that every word I post is completely intentional and I don't post things by accident. I do post things I shouldn't sometimes, as both alignments.

I just find a contradiction between your "I only do things completely purposefully, so I

could not scumslip

" and "Iunno I didn't think about it too hard"

Also re: "it seemed like everyone else who was alive on D4, including you, was in agreement that you should be the next lynch."
- if you townread me it's super weird to suggest that "yeah you'll be the next lynch, oh well"
- why expect that lylo will happen with you/dunn/flub, rather than suggest you're likely to try to keep me alive?

[Dunnstral]

Alright so I was townreading Flubber on day 1, and then he gladiated scum - I feel if that were a scum move he'd ride the credit harder rather than fading into the background
At the same time I said Something_Smart was scummy at one point (I believe was an unlikely lynch too) and I got gladiated which I've said points to Something_Smart as town

Irrelephant can you give a situation where either or both of these people could be scum

[Irrelephant11]

The one where I'm this lynch and the game keeps going

[Something_Smart]

Here's the thing.

I'm used to people getting lynched despite me townreading them. It happens all the time, and sometimes they flip scum.

So I don't put a ton of stock in my reads. That was why I imagined that my reads wouldn't actually affect what happened in the game, even though the game mechanics make it otherwise.

Me posting that was me starting to reverse my read on you. Before ceejay flipped I was mostly in agreement with the "kill everyone but Dunn/Flubber/S_S" plan. My reads are not as clear-cut as I often act, and this setup benefits not being completely clear about your reads, either.

If I'm being honest, I was being overly pessimistic by assuming both that you would be lynched and that you would flip town. Probably part of the reason that I said that was that the only way this game would get difficult-- or more importantly, get STRESSFUL, which is my biggest concern-- is if we reached that LYLO.

[Dunnstral]

Though at the same time it could be SS because I was chosen after making it v obvious I'd choose flub

This feels kind of weird at the start of the day, you could have gladiated SS during the night with this logic

I was thinking about why you get chosen as gladiator and what it means but I think it looked like everyone else was gladiating you (sounds like SS may have gladiated flubber but never hinted at that)

The one where I'm this lynch and the game keeps going

If that happens then the gladiator tonight has to get the right person or we lose (unless scum is gladiator of course)

a.k.a we're at the point where we probably benefit more from talking about all our current reads

[Irrelephant11]

Like honestly if I'm the lylo lynch vs ss or if you (dunnstral) are going to gladiate me for lylo and leave it up to ss then lynch me now, probably? I haven't thought this alllll the way through? but I'm pretty sure it'd be better to lynch me now if you're sure you'd want me dead in lylo (if flubber is town)

I have 0 interest in staying alive if it makes it harder for town to win
In the meantime I'm going to try to out scum

Since you want to lynch me, which of the other two do you think is scum? You're the one who will have to sort them next game day.

pedit: SS is super contradictory here. "Everything I say is intentional." "I wasn't thinking about it." "I was sorta thinking about it, but my reads are bad so who knew if you were town." "I thought you were town but also thought you'd probably just die idk."

[Dunnstral]

Irrelephant can I ask you who you gladiated each day before this

[Irrelephant11]

mm I agree the logic is iffy but I was hoping my "completely transparent reads" would be read with some WIFOM by scum because we just talked about how you shouldn't share reads

pedit: mylo, ceej, flub

[Dunnstral]

Since you want to lynch me, which of the other two do you think is scum?

Right now neither of them

And it's not just tomorrow, if game goes on and I get picked gladiator and gladiate town we lose so I need to have something in mind

[Irrelephant11]

I know, I meant "which if you had to choose"? So we could talk about that

[Irrelephant11]

I'm actually sort of pissed because I think I recommended the "let's narrow things down to flub/dunn/ss" plan and now it's confirmed fmpov that that was a mistake

[Something_Smart]

pedit: SS is super contradictory here. "Everything I say is intentional." "I wasn't thinking about it." "I was sorta thinking about it, but my reads are bad so who knew if you were town." "I thought you were town but also thought you'd probably just die idk."

There is no contradiction in any of this.

I didn't think about the number of votes today. I thought about the fact that my statement implied I thought you were town. It was overly pessimistic as I was not as convinced you were town as I acted.

I thought you were possibly town, but I don't trust my reads extensively, and I also thought there was a decent chance the game would just be over that day.

I don't write down my thoughts, and they've clearly been changing more than a bit. (Maybe not clearly as I have been generally keeping my thoughts close to my chest, but they have.) If my thoughts seem jumbled, it's because they are.

[Dunnstral]

I know, I meant "which if you had to choose"? So we could talk about that

I need to think about which is more likely in this case, flubbernugget gladiating his scum buddy or something_smart picking me as gladiator when it looked like I was going for him

[Dunnstral]

If a lynch is not achieved before the deadline, plurality will take place, and the player with more votes will be lynched. If both players in the Arena have an equal number of votes,

the one who most recently had more votes will be lynched.

If none were voted at all in the entirety of that Day, neither will be lynched, but the Mafia will get a factional nightkill the next Night.

This is a weird rule btw

I'm trying to imagine me and ss voting and unvoting at deadline

[Irrelephant11]

gtg till tomorrow

I should probably be today's lynch to remove wifom

@all Leave me some questions for tomorrow regarding each other so I can help find the scum

This situation is v annoying, sorry for the ways I've participated in bringing us to this point

flub is conspicuously quiet

[Irrelephant11]

@all Leave me some questions for tomorrow regarding each other so I can help find the scum

Or don't, I guess.

ftr the reason I think it still might be flub is I think it's more likely that scum!flub gladiated scum than scum!SS aimed twice in a row to get gladiated by townies

I'll be around more later. I also realized last night that I should probably stop trying to influence the lynch either way - lynch whoever y'all think is scummier, even if that's me, but don't let me dictate the lynch.

[BNL]

VC 6.1

Irrelephant11 (0) -
Flubbernugget (0) -
Not Voting (2) - Something_Smart, Dunnstral

Mod notes:
With 2 votes in play it takes 2 to lynch
The deadline is 31 July 10am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-07-31 10:00:00)

[Irrelephant11]

SS and Dunn are you two going to talk about your vote? I find it weird you're not really talking about your disagreement over who to vote (obv not in an associational way, but still weird)

Flubber come also play this game, please. Pretty sure I asked you a question last page, and I'm not gonna let you lurk your way into lylo as scum

[Flubbernugget]

Not fully caught up

It's really weird that you gladiated me and are pressuring ss as scum

[Irrelephant11]

It was mostly because he was around. I am split between the two of you.

[Irrelephant11]

Not fully caught up

It's really weird that you gladiated me and are pressuring ss as scum

Caught up yet? Two pages to read

Where y'all at? There's no consensus on the lynch here so it's not like you can just sit back while elephant makes noise. Like some amount of work has to be done here regardless of which player you are reading this. I'd love to discuss who is most likely scum (probably for after my own flip), but no one seems to want to talk much?

[Something_Smart]

Why do you townread Dunn so hard?

[Irrelephant11]

Someone has to be town. Here are the AI moments from Dunn:

Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.

I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.

And then I decided to challenge him

Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scioness

VOTE: not_mafia

A weird distancing attempt if s/s

Weird wagon movement going on right now, I'd think if both of these guys are town mafia are more likely to want Scioness Sajj voted out today allowing them to pick NM in the future or for wifom.

I'll keep the specifics of my reads close to my chest until the next gladiator is chosen at least

Keeping reads hidden is towny, and this is a really subtle distancing attempt if scum.

I think scum picking himself N1 is unlikely

Why?

@everyone. Answer me. If you were scum, would you pick your teammate or yourself for d1 gladiator? Honestly

I probably wouldn't pick myself, I might pick my partner though

You realise that involves your partner picking themselves right?

The scummiest of associations, actually, but the only thing I would scumread Dunn for.

VOTE: Not Mafia

Votes NM when he didn't need to

just realized this was hammer D2. Frick am I reading Dunn wrong

Came into today thinking S_S was a good pick for scum, but I didn't pick him because I didn't think I'd be gladiator if he was scum, if that makes sense. There's actually a good chance that he's town since I got gladiated here
ZZZX also looks like scum from associations with the N_M wagons on day 1 and 2

Unique logic that seems hard to think of as scum
Or a smart way to avoid going up against someone who might win a challenge hmmm

UNVOTE:
Gonna research something

More likely to come from town imo

who to lynch today for starters.

What do you think?

A towny response to a lurky slot
Although... no follow up. wOW I didn't see myself scumreading Dunn here but it really is making sense

Alright so I was townreading Flubber on day 1, and then he gladiated scum - I feel if that were a scum move he'd ride the credit harder rather than fading into the background
At the same time I said Something_Smart was scummy at one point (I believe was an unlikely lynch too) and I got gladiated which I've said points to Something_Smart as town

Irrelephant can you give a situation where either or both of these people could be scum

I think I thought this was towny but I don't remember why

It's actually now a great illustration of why Dunn/me make the most sense as scum, assuming Occam's razor hasn't been out-WIFOM'd at this point (which is not a given).
Interesting that scum!Dunn doesn't just join SS on finding a way to scumread Flub, though. I'd be great lynchbait for lylo probably

[Irrelephant11]

On balance I'm not finding any specific thing from Dunnstral THAT scummy, but it does require the fewest leaps of logic. I'm unsure what to do with this information.

[BNL]

bump