Heroes Wanted! (Game Over)


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Post Post #4450 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:55 am

Post by Frozen Angel »

In post 4442, Shiro wrote:@fa from Cerb, almost copy paste. Hopefully I won't be mod killed

He think the super mechanical discussion isn't valuable now. We lack crucial info to make conclusions and stuff. Repeat the Sando thing, he is uncertain what you mean.

He says you are displaying a contradiction by calling my decision to not choose a protective power a really bad one, while also expressing certainty that scum wouldnt go for an "uncertain" kill in someone who was likely to be given the ability to have a protective. Doesn't seem to jive with him. And the talks about power negation. He needs to think about that more.
it should satrt from this post or maybe a little earlier in my iso viewtopic.php?p=10341217#p10341217

I agree with uncertaintly about mechanical talks.

tell cerb that I understand the wifom he tried to pull there and that it didn't work obviously. The two points are actually seprtaed: for you the optimal play was saving your slot and redirceting the kill on another scum imo. scum didn't know you were chosen by me that night did they? there is nothing more to it tbh just my opinion that universal town reads should have tried saving themself the less slots with less credits should have gone with things like medium.
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Post Post #4451 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:57 am

Post by Frozen Angel »

In post 4443, Titus wrote:What if...

We collect all the what ifs...

???

Profit


On a more serious note, I did a tentative visual eyeball vca Cerb for d1. Thoughts on just that?
yeah talking about these what if solves the game not just random guesses. so what if you all do your own things and allow me to do mine instead of just mocking my methods all the time.
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Post Post #4452 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:59 am

Post by Shiro »

In post 4440, Frozen Angel wrote:I really need a town ufo in this game before going crazy with all these not concentrated things in my mind. :whenlifegetsatyou:
Where is he anyway?
To me:
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I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #4453 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:00 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 4448, Shiro wrote:
In post 4440, Frozen Angel wrote:I really need a town ufo in this game before going crazy with all these not concentrated things in my mind. :whenlifegetsatyou:
Where is he anyway?
Yeah, I really hope he is more active because he currently is #1 choice for D4 leader rn.
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Post Post #4454 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:00 am

Post by Frozen Angel »

In post 4444, Titus wrote:
In post 4441, Frozen Angel wrote:one crazy idea I just got. what if cerb decided to not confirm through shiro cause shiro lied about something cerb said before - like his leader vote or his ability pick?
Why would Shiro lie on leader pick unless to frame me to convince me I am townier than I was to rehash? Basically whiteknight while stirring paranoia.

Also, why lie about Cerb's pick unless Cerb was BP and there had to be scum in FA's pool?
lieing about first is to justify you being picked as leader based on votes. now we have 2-3 players with 2 votes max so you could have been chosen randomly

lieing about second could be for hiding a factional strongman or something.
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Post Post #4455 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:01 am

Post by Frozen Angel »

In post 4448, Shiro wrote:
In post 4440, Frozen Angel wrote:I really need a town ufo in this game before going crazy with all these not concentrated things in my mind. :whenlifegetsatyou:
Where is he anyway?
I don't know.
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Post Post #4456 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:02 am

Post by stungun0404 »

i feel i am most accurate when i assess every player based on their towniness first, because i don't tend to townread scum. so let's have at it - a rating system based on everyone's posts striking me as town or not. will include reasons!
ftr: i feel this game is moving at a blistering pace right now; i think we would benefit most by not posting unless we absolutely have to


Creature --> didn't initially catch that he replaced in for human sequencer, so let me look into their posts first. just did a quick meta dive on human sequencer, and they have a serious tendency to a). vote in their first post as scum (found 2 recent instances --> see micro 717, micro 798), b). replace out of scum games (found 2 recent instances --> see micro 717, micro 798). tendencies is what lead me (along with a little insight on nico robin's gameplay) to feel confident in my slot being a town slot, so it is trustable to an extent. i also found a tendency that he does not vote in his first post as town (see minuet's trio, newbie 1797 where he replaced in for a town slot (where he even says glad i rolled town tbh in his first post), micro 673, and mini 1878 where it seems like everyone else and their mothers voted right away in their first post; but i did find an exception in micro 663 notably --> but he was town mason so perhaps more informed than usual, and in micro 667 where he voted himself (and was actually a chosen townie interestingly)). so in quick review, 4 vs. 2 as town in terms of not voting in first post. and 2/4 = 1/2 of scum games relative to town where he voted in his first post. further, the replacement tendencies is clearly stacked in favor of scum tendencies for human sequencer (2 as scum vs. 0 i could find as town).

i also happened to find a creature scum game in this quick tendency analysis. human sequencer —-> town lost this game to scum creature.

i suggest that everyone takes a look at newbie 1752. this is what creature is capable of doing as scum.


viewtopic.php?f=50&t=68849&user_select%5B%5D=27374

now i'll read every post in their iso's and see if anything sticks out to me as coming from town.

i'm definitely not townreading human sequencer's , wherein he attacks toranaga over "fence-sittery"; "fence-sittery" behavior in rvs doesn't necessarily imply scum, but is something easy scum could attack.

in a quick scan of minuet's trio (where he was town), didn't see any posts like human sequencer like bits of , , and where he uses "this"/"and also this" as his supposed substance provided for posting --> initially struck me as kinda odd. if anything, he didn't seem to agree with a lot of things in a quick iso, so first impression is this might be scum trying to look helpful but not indeed being that helpful. but, on the contrary, he didn't seem to do that in a quick scum game i investigated either, so moot point here i guess.

definitely don't like human sequencer's : asserting "i don't really like the idea of keeping who gets prs private" - because obviously scum wants to know where PR's are at. i as town am definitely
NOT
in favor of outing power roles. We should never do this, even if we happen to choose scum as a leader on a particular day, unless we have reasonable confidence that the leader is indeed scum. but i will say i'm fine with his stance on "i do like the idea of keeping what those prs are private" --> as this could reasonably be a town stance. and i definitely like that human sequencer took an active part in this discussion, as if he's scum he wouldn't have to, so consider the scale overall as leaning towards scum here, to be disproven if there's anything that looks like definite town to me. the good news for his slot is that this might be theory that scum might avoid taking an active approach in talking about, so we'll see.

is post [760] really worth commenting on. i see this as a thread spamming type of post; it's unnecessary.

i sincerely don't understand human sequencer's probtown read on bbmolla -- i was thinking there was about a 55% chance that slot was town when replacing in, whereas about a 91% chance my slot would be town, and so this kinda looks bad to me at first glimpse.

nicorobin is classic lynchbait as town fwiw, but not as scum. so it's easy to include him in a list like . however, this list is very long, and is pro-scum in being such --> so this kinda content is not hard for scum to be desirous of producing; especially if their scum buddies aren't in very much danger.

OK i like that hs was specific enough in giving a reads list . he didn't give a reads list in either of his other 2 scum replace-out games that i just reinvestigated before replacing out. so, maybe his effort is town-invested? still null on the slot overall.

the issue with the theory of is that scum can distort who they voted for, otherwise maybe this theory would be sound.

myloninja is a good townplayer from my experience with him, so i'll be open about not liking creature's avid support of his lynch, especially seeing that mylo flipped town.

human sequencer in his two scum game replace-outs did not vote his partner in either (but then again he only had 1 in each of them). i haven't located any completed scum games from human sequencer, so that on the surface bothers me.

@gammaemerald, seeing you modded a game where human sequencer was scum and replaced out, what are your thoughts on his play before replacing out in this game?


confidence that creature is town: a relatively weak
64.6%


i've had to fix the links in the post because they won't link 3 times now before being able to post, ugh!
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Post Post #4457 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:31 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 4221, Drixx wrote:
In post 4209, Sando wrote:
In post 4195, Drixx wrote:Like ... if the world we're in has a town!Shiro who is a medium who is really talking to Cerb ... then scum either can or cannot do anything about it. Cerb confirming it doesn't impact that in any way.

And Cerb is way beyond smart enough to know that.

QED: Cerb isn't talking to Shiro.
Or he's talking to Cerb who is pretty sure Shiro is scum. But then Cerb can't have any more info on Shiro than we do?
Even if Cerb believes that Shiro is scum, he STILL answers my questions. That still means Shiro absolutely has medium, stops this pages long debate from going on for days, and adds to the known info we can work from. There's also no downside because: IF Shiro is town and telling the truth then a scum team with the ability to power negate Shiro will do it ASAP to shut down any communication from Cerb to the game. Doing that would also make Shiro look really bad. So if scum CAN shut it down, they will do so the moment the person who can do it shows up.

Cerb would have realized this before I even showed up to the thread.

This means that confirming Shiro as medium by answering my two questions has no negative utility.

It also means we have an elegant test to ensure that Shiro passes along what Cerberus wants to communicate to us. I simply ask another set of questions and the correct answer to said questions means Shiro relayed the info accurately. Wrong answers means not.


Trying to handwave and say "Shiro wouldn't have lied about this as scum" is absolutely meaningless. Shiro has a wide range as scum. Titus is basically universally scumread and this kind of thing is right up her alley.
AND SHE TRIED TO GET ME TO MAKE MY QUESTION ONE SHE CAN ANSWER
. Like ... it's plausible that this is a gambit.

It's very implausible that Cerb refuses to give us concrete info to stop us going round and round about this.
In post 4220, Shiro wrote:@Drixx


Cerb says that maybe he wants everyone to suspect me so he can create associatives like he would do if he was alive by acting scummy/arrogant.

Or maybe he doesn't trust me enough to confirm me so I dont start saying shit he isn't telling me after I confirm the link
.
In post 4219, Sakura Hana wrote:Actually I believe now that Shiro's talking with Cerb.
I think so too. I think Drixx is pushing yet another bad lynch here because it totally makes sense for Cerb to do that. He is very skeptical and cautious. His not fully trusting Shiro makes perfect sense to me and I don’t want town to risk cannibalizing itself when A) we don’t know if anyone else picked SM. B) Since Shiro’s claim seems legit, what exactly is the scum motivation in choosing SM? C) Keepong a legit SM in the game is clearly to town’s benefit. So, I very much doubt I’ll be voting Shiro anytime soon.
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Post Post #4458 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:36 am

Post by Frozen Angel »

ugh no it doesn't make any sense in seven hells combined for cerb to not prove themselves here.
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Post Post #4459 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:37 am

Post by Creature »

lol I'm sorta proud about my Newbie 1752 performance rn even though I wasn't at the time.
Sigh
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Post Post #4460 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:38 am

Post by Creature »

Did you make a giant huge post just to talk about my slot?
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Post Post #4461 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:44 am

Post by Drixx »

In post 4442, Shiro wrote:@fa from Cerb, almost copy paste. Hopefully I won't be mod killed

He think the super mechanical discussion isn't valuable now. We lack crucial info to make conclusions and stuff. Repeat the Sando thing, he is uncertain what you mean.

He says you are displaying a contradiction by calling my decision to not choose a protective power a really bad one, while also expressing certainty that scum wouldnt go for an "uncertain" kill in someone who was likely to be given the ability to have a protective. Doesn't seem to jive with him. And the talks about power negation. He needs to think about that more.
This is bullshit. Cerberus trusts me to think through things as thoroughly as him. When we hydra we're both constantly pushing each other and thinking of things the other hasn't. There's no world where Cerb doesn't confirm by now. He would want me to have the known info because both He and I work from concrete known information. He also wouldn't just assume that if he didn't see a way to draw some conclusion he's trying to figure out that I would also be unable. He would want us both working on it.

QED: Shiro is lying and running a super ballsy gambit that didn't work because I thought to ask questions only he and I know the answers to when it could have been reasonably expected I might try to confirm it was him in a way similar to how Mathblade tried. Just the fact that Math's attempt at confirmation was info that could be found on site reinforces the fact that it would have been reasonable for someone to believe such a gambit could work. All it would have taken was for me to think to confirm the way Math did and the gambit may in fact have actually worked.

So all this bullshit about how there's no way Shiro would do this gambit is literally handwaving bullshit. It nearly worked.
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Post Post #4462 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:45 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

Hi I have no time for this rn, site fucking crashed on me for most of my internet time
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Post Post #4463 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:06 am

Post by Sakura Hana »

In post 6, The Dream Weaver wrote:Spiritual Mediumship: Target a player that
has died within the previous Day or Night Phase.
You will have a neighborhood with that player for the following Day and Night Phase.
We can't link Cerb anymore after today, just saying.
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Post Post #4464 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:06 am

Post by Shiro »

@Drixx buddy hear me out here, crazy idea I know but, you are 100% wrong.
To me:
shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
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I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #4465 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:06 am

Post by Sakura Hana »

Pretty sure I mentioend this before, but someone said no, so i went to find it.
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Post Post #4466 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:11 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 4458, Frozen Angel wrote:ugh no it doesn't make any sense in seven hells combined for cerb to not prove themselves here.
But doesn’t it make sense, that he doesn’t trust Shiro?
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We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
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Post Post #4467 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:11 am

Post by Shiro »

Like if it was purely my judgment I would think you are scum trying way too hard to lynch me buuuuuut I will trust Cerb over myself any day about your alignment.

And by that I mean my fake inner monologues faking Cerb *wink* *wink*
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I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #4468 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:13 am

Post by Shiro »

In post 4152, zMuffinMan wrote:scum PT last night:

"hey shiro, pretend you got the medium N1 and that you used it on cerb lol"
"but i don't see a point in doing that..."
"nah dw it's a good idea, trust me, it's not going to make people think you're town but do it anyway!"
"but won't it be too obvious? what if they try to verify it?"
"lol dw just say he won't do it! everyone will let you off the hook! it's a flawless strategy"
"ok, i will do just that! i also believe this is a flawless strategy!"
Still cracks me up xD Made my today. XD
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Post Post #4469 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:15 am

Post by Shiro »

@Titus let's voice over this, it will be hilarious xS
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shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
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I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #4470 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:15 am

Post by Kokichi Oma »

In post 4456, stungun0404 wrote:confidence that creature is town: a relatively weak 64.6%
Lol
How do you expect to find the culprit when you're all worried about each other's feelings? If you're planning to expose a liar, then you have to corner them psychologically.
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Post Post #4471 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:16 am

Post by Sakura Hana »

Funnily enough, Master fake claimer scum muffin would be the only one I would imagine would pull off some crazy strategy like that.
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Post Post #4472 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:16 am

Post by Frozen Angel »

In post 4466, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 4458, Frozen Angel wrote:ugh no it doesn't make any sense in seven hells combined for cerb to not prove themselves here.
But doesn’t it make sense, that he doesn’t trust Shiro?
not giving us the information for "not trusting" shiro makes no sense because we should all have this information about shiro's action usage and this information denial is pretty anti town and caused this foggy game state about last night actions/shiro action use.

But not giving us information makes sense if cerb has a "guilty" on shiro makes some sense. That can happen if shiro lied to us about stuff cerb said to him before we started asking shiro questions to prove he has contact with cerb.

or shiro is just lieing for w/e reason. or that cerb was hit by a brick or something and decided to holster this info.

its one of the last 3.
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Post Post #4473 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:17 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 4461, Drixx wrote:
In post 4442, Shiro wrote:@fa from Cerb, almost copy paste. Hopefully I won't be mod killed

He think the super mechanical discussion isn't valuable now. We lack crucial info to make conclusions and stuff. Repeat the Sando thing, he is uncertain what you mean.

He says you are displaying a contradiction by calling my decision to not choose a protective power a really bad one, while also expressing certainty that scum wouldnt go for an "uncertain" kill in someone who was likely to be given the ability to have a protective. Doesn't seem to jive with him. And the talks about power negation. He needs to think about that more.
This is bullshit. Cerberus trusts me to think through things as thoroughly as him. When we hydra we're both constantly pushing each other and thinking of things the other hasn't. There's no world where Cerb doesn't confirm by now. He would want me to have the known info because both He and I work from concrete known information. He also wouldn't just assume that if he didn't see a way to draw some conclusion he's trying to figure out that I would also be unable. He would want us both working on it.

QED: Shiro is lying and running a super ballsy gambit that didn't work because I thought to ask questions only he and I know the answers to when it could have been reasonably expected I might try to confirm it was him in a way similar to how Mathblade tried. Just the fact that Math's attempt at confirmation was info that could be found on site reinforces the fact that it would have been reasonable for someone to believe such a gambit could work. All it would have taken was for me to think to confirm the way Math did and the gambit may in fact have actually worked.

So all this bullshit about how there's no way Shiro would do this gambit is literally handwaving bullshit. It nearly worked.
Well, after your terribad push on Sakura the other day, I hope you will understand my reluctance to let you lead town.
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~the worst
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Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
~CheekyTeeky
*******
Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
~Taly
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Frozen Angel
Frozen Angel
She
Queen Shifty
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Frozen Angel
She
Queen Shifty
Queen Shifty
Posts: 18753
Joined: October 26, 2015
Pronoun: She

Post Post #4474 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:18 am

Post by Frozen Angel »

In post 4472, Frozen Angel wrote:or shiro is just lieing for w/e reason.
This can't be the case very likely cause it means scum made a very stupid gambit yet still this whole thing makes no sense.
False tears bring pain to those around you
False smile brings pain to one's self


"Frozen Like Your Heart." -Ginngie

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