Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[Wisdom]

No need to rush, let jingle catch up and lets talk about who pine's buddies are

[Jingle]

Sup yall. First, I intended to quote every post that could be argued to have broken the spirit of the rules and make comments totaling exactly 500 words, just because I'm an asshole. I gave up on doing this because I'm very lazy.

Second, half of the reason for me to replace into this game was to lynch Pine. If you deny me that chance I will light the forum on fire. Do not doubt my ability to do things that are literally physically impossible.

Third, mastina is a meanie because she refused to "cheat" by "literally breaking the site's rules" and sending a PM to all living players before daystart telling them that I would be policy lynching anyone who got on Pine's wagon before me.

3a. I demand everyone currently voting Pine unvote so that I can be the first vote on Pine. Otherwise, I'm going to policy lynch you. For realsies.

4. My notes from Day one say Pine obvscum, Wis obvtown, Fuzzy obvtown. I need to reread to make sure that's still how I feel, but that's where I'm at as of where I last was reading this game.

5. Lycanfire is very clearly scum.

6. Tomorrow is RPG day and I need to prep an adventure, so I'll be a minimal presence at least.

7. One of my friends offered to buy me all I can drink Mimosas Sunday. The last time such an offer was made the bar had to send the manager for more champagne twice over the course of two and a half hours, so I'll probably be very busy until about 3 in the afternoon PST, at which point I will be very drunk and willing to answer questions. Any hammers or attempts to put Pine to L-1 to let him hammer himself before then will be taken as scumclaims and purged with fire accordingly.

8. Any attempts to say that a 48 hour stay of execution for my fir-y friend is unreasonable will be met with scornful laughter and derision.

Now is the portion of the evening when I begin taking ass and kicking names. You may begin showering me with adoration and small denomination currency at your earliest convenience.

[Wisdom]

Umlaut believed its Pine/Hiraki/Mafmen
I havent looked at associations but based on poe i can see this being the case

[Wisdom]

5. Lycanfire is very clearly scum.

This is the only interesting thing in your post, which otherwise looks like you are powerbussing caught scum
Talk to me about this and about who else is scum with Pine

[Jingle]

Talk to me about this and about who else is scum with Pine

Sure. Pine knows me from one of the best towngames I ever had, where we were masons. He most certainly would have wanted me dead sooner than later, but I am still alive. This tells me A. I'm lynchbait slot or B. Umlaut was scary to scum in a big way. Lycanfire's reaction to Math's request to let me catch up suggests that he is afraid of me getting the time to get my feet underneath me, hence Pine told him about my towngame and he wants the day over before I have a chance to analyse the game and put my reads out there.

Therefore, Lycan is scum.

Loosely, this suggests Mathtown- given that in this sequence of events Math is going directly counter to Pine's plan (Pine's forte as scum).

Analysis as to the third will wait until I've finished reading, done a Wistown case, and done a Pinescum case (yes, trust me the last is important.)

[Wisdom]

thats bs and makes me feel better about you being scum

[Jingle]

If you'll point out what specifically is BS, I'll add provide evidence that it isn't to my to do list.

Of course, you will have to wait 24 hours to do so, because you've already used 4 posts this page, but I can wait. I'm patient.

[MathBlade]

@Jingle Pine Wis Lyc is where I am at.

I don’t agree with the Hiraki read Umlaut had.

Your slot was a troll slot before replacing out but your entrance has me feel moderately okay about you. Mainly I wanna see if you do what I think is your evidence scum tell before pinning a needle in that team.

Where is your head at Jingle?

[Pine]

Guys

I'm not scum

The Doc claim was an elaborate gambit

Scum is obv Jingle Math and Mastina

[LuckyOtter]

Happy Birthday, Umlaut! lol
--
For reference, EOD VCs:
D1:
TheFuzzylogic99 - 7 (LuckyOtter, MathBlade,

SirCakez

TrinityNZ, Pine, Dunnstral,

Kokichi Oma Mafmen

Jingle, Wisdom)
havingfitz - 4 (Momrangal,

ArcAngel9

Lycanfire, Hiraki, TheFuzzylogic99)
EeveeLution Army - 1 (havingfitz)
Pine - 1 (EeveeLution Army)

D2:
EeveeLution Army - 6 (

MafMen

Jingle, Pine, Hiraki, TrinityNZ, Dunnstral, Umlaut)
Pine - 2 (EeveeLution Army, Wisdom)

Not Voting - 3 (Lycanfire, MathBlade, LuckyOtter)
--
Pine of course is on both lynches, as are Dunnstral, Jingleslot, and Trinityslot.
I wouldn't usually expect all 3 scum to vote together all the time, but having the opportunity to take out PRs is enticing. Plus, Fuzzy and Eevee were both easy mislynches. I'd expect at least one of these three to be scum. Jingleslot was in Umlaut's named scumteam, so that would be the obvious place to look, but I still think Maf's "Pine is town without a doubt" would be super bold for a scumbuddy.

On Hiraki: I don't like his vote on Eevee following the counterclaim, but his earlier vote on Pine doesn't make sense to me if they are buddies. Eevee was at 3 votes, Pine was at 1, then Umlaut and Wisdom voted Pine. Hiraki's vote puts Pine at 4, saying "this game needs something to get it to move and this might as well be something." He could just as easily have said this about Eevee and voted there. I don't think it was so obvious Pine's wagon would build so that he felt like he'd have to bus here. Unless the plan was to run up a Pine wagon until he claimed, then back off. In such a plan, though, there will be a counterclaim and Pine should be the obvious lynch, which would essentially mean sacrificing Pine. I don't think that makes sense given the state of the game.

Trinity, on the other hand, now sees Pine's wagon building and says that she could vote Pine, and eventually puts him at L-1. Once the fire dies down, Trinity goes over to the Math wagon. Later on, votes Eevee after the counterclaim. The reasoning for the vote and keeping it there is Eevee's apparent contradictory statements, which are easily explainable (as pointed out by Wisdom and myself). I think everything lines up for Trinity!scum here. I'm inclined to think this makes Math very likely town.

As for Dunn, Umlaut clears him based on this:

It was 1013, thanks for noticing. You asked Pine who he protected after he had already said in his claim. Especially where you yourself placed intent on him, if it were all an act I'd expect that you'd have worked out that detail of the claim in the PT and you wouldn't forget it.

I'm really not following Umlaut here. Scum!Dunn could very easily say these things. He ignores the fact that Pine already says who he protected and goes about pretending to sort the claims. Scum!Dunn is still plausible to me, but I don't have any more time right now to sort him out.

As it stands, Trinity is my best guess for scum with Pine. Jingle and Dunn are decent bets as a shot in the dark, but I want to look at the timing of their votes more carefully. I don't think Hiraki makes sense as Pine's buddy. More later.

[LuckyOtter]

My thoughts exactly.

VOTE: Pine

Plus this just screams fake to me. Like, the Pine vote is so obvious why bother with the "my thoughts exactly?"

[Jingle]

Haven't had time to finish reading, but 24 hours will have passed by the time I can post again, so I'm going to make this post to try and get the turnover towards the next page and game the system for a better conversation with Wisdom.

LO, your read on the D1 wagon is pretty much the opposite of mine. Any particular reason you expect scum were keen to push specifically that lynch through?

[Hiraki]

I'm with Lucky here. Still have no regrets against Eevee. If you don't defend yourself and just keep making excuses, I'm not gonna stop.

[MathBlade]

Haven't had time to finish reading, but 24 hours will have passed by the time I can post again, so I'm going to make this post to try and get the turnover towards the next page and game the system for a better conversation with Wisdom.

LO, your read on the D1 wagon is pretty much the opposite of mine. Any particular reason you expect scum were keen to push specifically that lynch through?

I eagerly await your thoughts.

[Pine]

I surrender to you personally, Lucky, O Wise Otterly One.

[TrinityNZ]

My thoughts exactly.

VOTE: Pine

Plus this just screams fake to me. Like, the Pine vote is so obvious why bother with the "my thoughts exactly?"

I don’t know why that seems fake. I had just been about to make a similar post, but saw I was beaten to it. I don’t see what’s wrong with saying that? Doesn’t make me scum (because I’m not).

[Lycanfire]

it's too damn hot to play mafia

i think jingle and mathblade are struggling to have a real conversation here

also please scumread me so i don't die tonight, god bless

[Jingle]

LO, your read on the D1 wagon is pretty much the opposite of mine. Any particular reason you expect scum were keen to push specifically that lynch through?

Still quite interested in this response, don't particularly want to talk about Pinescum case until I get an answer. Still do want to talk about Pine scumcase.



@Trinity:

Who are your other scumreads and why?

Your slot was a troll slot before replacing out but your entrance has me feel moderately okay about you.

I kinda got that from D2, actually, which means I was never going to be the nightkill last night and the lycan bit is less damning than I previously thought, but still worth noting. His continued posting makes me more and more certain I'm correct.

Spoiler: Wistown Case Quotes

i dont like fitz
his scumleans are based on nai things

i like hiraki and arc
hiraki's articulated read on arc felt good even though I disagree
arc omgusing me is natural for town-her as she's a reactive person mainly based on emotions

<<<

INFRACTION

: Fifth post on a page in under 24 hours; user has been warned. >>>

What NAI things are my scumleans based on wrt you and Eevee?

These:

@Eevee, wrt 77...as much as you value your vote if you WERE to vote it would be me, the person who's possibly posted the least? You've no suspicions up to this point from what content there is from others?

@Wis, wrt 82...do you ever say you're town when you're scum? If fluffing is NAI why the Koki vote?

You having posted the least doesn't mean Eevee is not allowed to scumread you more than people who have posted more. This is no basis for a scumlean.

Me saying I am town is meaningless and thus nai. Me voting Kokichi can be for any number of reasons regardless of what I think of his fluff. This is no basis for a scumlean.

VOTE: fitz

dont post again, Wisdom, fourth post.

There is a pattern here that is established and continued that leads me to believe Wisdom is town. The pages where Wisdom has trouble with hitting his limit early are also those pages where Wisdom is pushing a read. He's not using his posts to strongman the thread and get people to follow him, but to prod and illuminate. Admittedly, I remembered him as actually getting more infractions, but the posts that were close and thus posts in which he reminds himself not to continue posting follow this pattern.

This tells me Wisdom is likely having trouble not continuing to post not because he's spammy scum who wants to control the thread but because he's spammy town who wants to comment/poke for content.

Additionally, he gets major credit for being a voice of reason on both of the bad-theory lynches.

I'll be back to do more reading later, in case anyone has questions.

[Dunnstral]

I'm ready to go to the next day,

LuckyOtter what do you think of Umlaut dying?

[Hiraki]

Dunn/Jingle/Trinity tbh. There are a few things that can change that tonight but I'll let you know tomorrow if any of those occur.

I re-read Dunn's ISO and I don't like some of his phrasings. I don't think this ever ends in a TL though.

[LuckyOtter]

LO, your read on the D1 wagon is pretty much the opposite of mine. Any particular reason you expect scum were keen to push specifically that lynch through?

Because having the chance to get rid of the cop D1 without having to worry about the protective role getting in the way is probably worth the risk of voting together.

Why do you have the opposite read?

LuckyOtter what do you think of Umlaut dying?

Umlaut was a threat to scum regardless of how good his reads were yesterday. He was putting the most effort into the game. At the moment I can't read much more into it without getting into wifom territory.

Doing some more rereading now.

[MathBlade]

LO, your read on the D1 wagon is pretty much the opposite of mine. Any particular reason you expect scum were keen to push specifically that lynch through?

Still quite interested in this response, don't particularly want to talk about Pinescum case until I get an answer. Still do want to talk about Pine scumcase.



@Trinity:

Who are your other scumreads and why?

Your slot was a troll slot before replacing out but your entrance has me feel moderately okay about you.

I kinda got that from D2, actually, which means I was never going to be the nightkill last night and the lycan bit is less damning than I previously thought, but still worth noting. His continued posting makes me more and more certain I'm correct.

Spoiler: Wistown Case Quotes

i dont like fitz
his scumleans are based on nai things

i like hiraki and arc
hiraki's articulated read on arc felt good even though I disagree
arc omgusing me is natural for town-her as she's a reactive person mainly based on emotions

<<<

INFRACTION

: Fifth post on a page in under 24 hours; user has been warned. >>>

What NAI things are my scumleans based on wrt you and Eevee?

These:

@Eevee, wrt 77...as much as you value your vote if you WERE to vote it would be me, the person who's possibly posted the least? You've no suspicions up to this point from what content there is from others?

@Wis, wrt 82...do you ever say you're town when you're scum? If fluffing is NAI why the Koki vote?

You having posted the least doesn't mean Eevee is not allowed to scumread you more than people who have posted more. This is no basis for a scumlean.

Me saying I am town is meaningless and thus nai. Me voting Kokichi can be for any number of reasons regardless of what I think of his fluff. This is no basis for a scumlean.

VOTE: fitz

dont post again, Wisdom, fourth post.

There is a pattern here that is established and continued that leads me to believe Wisdom is town. The pages where Wisdom has trouble with hitting his limit early are also those pages where Wisdom is pushing a read. He's not using his posts to strongman the thread and get people to follow him, but to prod and illuminate. Admittedly, I remembered him as actually getting more infractions, but the posts that were close and thus posts in which he reminds himself not to continue posting follow this pattern.

This tells me Wisdom is likely having trouble not continuing to post not because he's spammy scum who wants to control the thread but because he's spammy town who wants to comment/poke for content.

Additionally, he gets major credit for being a voice of reason on both of the bad-theory lynches.

I'll be back to do more reading later, in case anyone has questions.

How would you respond if I said your scumtell was here and I planned on pushing you tomorrow?

[Lycanfire]

this post is reserved for future grandstanding

[LuckyOtter]

My thoughts exactly.

VOTE: Pine

Plus this just screams fake to me. Like, the Pine vote is so obvious why bother with the "my thoughts exactly?"

I don’t know why that seems fake. I had just been about to make a similar post, but saw I was beaten to it. I don’t see what’s wrong with saying that? Doesn’t make me scum (because I’m not).

It just feels like too much, like it's forced. It's really not the most important detail here, though.

Who do you think Pine's buddies are?

Same question to Dunn.

[Jingle]

Because having the chance to get rid of the cop D1 without having to worry about the protective role getting in the way is probably worth the risk of voting together.

Why do you have the opposite read?

The way the wagon formed is precisely why I thought Pine was scum in the first place.

The game was stalled out, Pine wasn't really trying for the lynch, and he wasn't really pushing. Pine, both as town and scum is more than capable of pushing a lynch, which means he didn't really care. Thus, scum was probably not in a position where they needed to be concerned at all on day one

Pine voted for fuzzy in 35 for a weak reason, then stayed there for the entire day phase. He pretended to be hardscumreading it but spent no time pushing the lynch. The only reason the wagon even went through was because of a deadline with absentee players. BoP, but Pine town and Pine scum are better at getting their lynch through than that. If he'd actually cared about lynching fuzzy, it wouldn't be a deadline affair, it would have been done long before that. Conclusion? Pine didn't give a shit and both leading wagons are town, meaning Fitzslot can be trusted.

Your analysis is suspect because of the votes on Fuzzy, two came post cop claim. My slot's vote and Wisdom's deadline hammer. My slot is necessarily town by my own information, and Wisdom's slot spent the end of the phase trying to get a different wagon to take off.

How would you respond if I said your scumtell was here and I planned on pushing you tomorrow?

I'd wonder why you were waiting if you thought I actually was scum. TBF, I did realize that I 100% need to be lynched before LYLO anyway though, from a mechanical standpoint, because my slot fake softclaimed D1 and thus we can't bring me to LYLO.