Heroes Wanted! (Game Over)

[MathBlade]

I also don’t like how you adamantly townread FA and then go “don’t make town leader”

Why?

[Sando]

Take Shiro for example. I can think of reasons scum!Shiro would take FA I can think of all sorts of things scum could do to fuck with me and the rest of town. It feels like you’re starting from “this is how I expect things to be played” instead of “this is reality” what is it telling me.

I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at here. What am I saying is expected vs reality?

I also don’t like how you adamantly townread FA and then go “don’t make town leader”

Why?

Risk reduction mostly, if you've ever worked in risk, there's a pretty common matrix (OSHA uses it) of likelihood & outcome. High likelihood and catastrophic outcome are your worst case risks, low likelihood and low outcome are safe to ignore. As much as the likelihood is low, the more eggs you put in one basket the more the outcome becomes more and more catastrophic.

I also think it's a reasonable bet that scum have power negation and let FA live/become leader a second time, that gives me significant pause about the effectiveness of an FA leader, even though I don't think it's scum-indicative.

[MathBlade]

Take Shiro for example. I can think of reasons scum!Shiro would take FA I can think of all sorts of things scum could do to fuck with me and the rest of town. It feels like you’re starting from “this is how I expect things to be played” instead of “this is reality” what is it telling me.

I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at here. What am I saying is expected vs reality?

I also don’t like how you adamantly townread FA and then go “don’t make town leader”

Why?

Risk reduction mostly, if you've ever worked in risk, there's a pretty common matrix (OSHA uses it) of likelihood & outcome. High likelihood and catastrophic outcome are your worst case risks, low likelihood and low outcome are safe to ignore. As much as the likelihood is low, the more eggs you put in one basket the more the outcome becomes more and more catastrophic.

I also think it's a reasonable bet that scum have power negation and let FA live/become leader a second time, that gives me significant pause about the effectiveness of an FA leader, even though I don't think it's scum-indicative.

It’s like the scene from Princess Bride and the poisoning. You’ve made an assumption as to which goblet is poisoned and then started reads from there. When the reality in that scene is both were.

Secondly I almost became an actuary. Take of that what you will.

Thirdly even if I accepted your other two premises the third doesn’t follow.

Assume scum have power negation.
This means that they can stop a power from acting.
This doesn’t all of a sudden make FA a bad leader choice if she is town. It means they may be able to kill her if she is town.

Now if you assume that scum could kill anyone replace FA with Sando. You’d be arguing you’re own ineffectiveness as leader. Unless there is a unique quality that applies to FA there is no point in that post.

[Sakura Hana]

Btw Math you used premonition today right?

[Sando]

It’s like the scene from Princess Bride and the poisoning. You’ve made an assumption as to which goblet is poisoned and then started reads from there. When the reality in that scene is both were.

Yeah I get your premise, I'm struggling for what it's in relation to, is it all the FA discussion?

Assume scum have power negation.
This means that they can stop a power from acting.
This doesn’t all of a sudden make FA a bad leader choice if she is town. It means they may be able to kill her if she is town.

Now if you assume that scum could kill anyone replace FA with Sando. You’d be arguing you’re own ineffectiveness as leader. Unless there is a unique quality that applies to FA there is no point in that post.

You're missing a very, very crucial detail here: FA was listed, along with Ank, as one of the two leader options last night. Scum decided to kill one of those and presumably could only kill one of those. Both FA and Ank would have 2 powers, equal chance of having BP etc (ignoring the idea that Ank crumbed use of medium). So it's not unreasonable to assume scum used power negation to ensure the kill went through.

If that's true (and I think it's the most likely option, but by no means guaranteed), they decided it was better to leave FA alive than Ank as leader. That tells me they cared enough about the leader to kill one of the options, and they preferred FA to Ank.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Take Shiro for example. I can think of reasons scum!Shiro would take FA I can think of all sorts of things scum could do to fuck with me and the rest of town. It feels like you’re starting from “this is how I expect things to be played” instead of “this is reality” what is it telling me.

I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at here. What am I saying is expected vs reality?

I also don’t like how you adamantly townread FA and then go “don’t make town leader”

Why?

Risk reduction mostly, if you've ever worked in risk, there's a pretty common matrix (OSHA uses it) of likelihood & outcome. High likelihood and catastrophic outcome are your worst case risks, low likelihood and low outcome are safe to ignore. As much as the likelihood is low, the more eggs you put in one basket the more the outcome becomes more and more catastrophic.

I also think it's a reasonable bet that scum have power negation and let FA live/become leader a second time, that gives me significant pause about the effectiveness of an FA leader, even though I don't think it's scum-indicative.

Possible but unlikely because if they had it, why wouldn’t they have used it on FA instead of Ank? The only person whom I’m getting any possible scum vibes off of is Titus and she can’t have both PN and precog, so I think it’s more likely than not scum didn’t want to risk FA kill blowing up in their face, which could only happen if they didn’t have PN, so nah.

[Sando]

Possible but unlikely because if they had it, why wouldn’t they have used it on FA instead of Ank? The only person whom I’m getting any possible scum vibes off of is Titus and she can’t have both PN and precog, so I think it’s more likely than not scum didn’t want to risk FA kill blowing up in their face, which could only happen if they didn’t have PN, so nah.

Possible, but if you're killing outside of your negate, why FA? I dunno how many unique heroes we had between N1 and N2 (8 I think from glance at my notes), but apart from being unkillable once leader, why is stopping power usage from FA better than anyone else? Maybe even less given FA was heavily incentivised to use a protection ability (which she did).

I'm not saying FA being alive is scum indicative, I'm saying it's indicative that scum are more ok with FA leader than Ank leader, and they cared at least a bit about it since they killed inside the choices. I can't say I'm a huge fan of giving scum what they want, even if I can't discern a motive.

[MathBlade]

Btw Math you used premonition today right?

Precog yeah

[MathBlade]

It’s like the scene from Princess Bride and the poisoning. You’ve made an assumption as to which goblet is poisoned and then started reads from there. When the reality in that scene is both were.

Yeah I get your premise, I'm struggling for what it's in relation to, is it all the FA discussion?

Assume scum have power negation.
This means that they can stop a power from acting.
This doesn’t all of a sudden make FA a bad leader choice if she is town. It means they may be able to kill her if she is town.

Now if you assume that scum could kill anyone replace FA with Sando. You’d be arguing you’re own ineffectiveness as leader. Unless there is a unique quality that applies to FA there is no point in that post.

You're missing a very, very crucial detail here: FA was listed, along with Ank, as one of the two leader options last night. Scum decided to kill one of those and presumably could only kill one of those. Both FA and Ank would have 2 powers, equal chance of having BP etc (ignoring the idea that Ank crumbed use of medium). So it's not unreasonable to assume scum used power negation to ensure the kill went through.

If that's true (and I think it's the most likely option, but by no means guaranteed), they decided it was better to leave FA alive than Ank as leader. That tells me they cared enough about the leader to kill one of the options, and they preferred FA to Ank.

You’re saying it’s likely scum did <action> so Player Y is <alignment>

This just isn’t a thing. Taking advantage of that is what makes me deadly as scum so I have been spending a majority of the day arguing and pointing out where people do that so scum can’t do what I do.

Everything in that “missing a crucial detail” is irrelevant. I am aware of those details. I agree it’s not unreasonable that it is possible. I am arguing that there isn’t evidence one way or another. Assuming either option and basing reads off of it I find disingenuous.

[Sakura Hana]

Btw Math you used premonition today right?

Precog yeah

Fuck...
That's bad...

[MathBlade]

The entire reason I took precognition was so that way we couldn’t fall into this trap. Titus probably took it for scum to see just how to analyze the battle field and knew I would probably take it.

That and I am almost never nightkilled like ever.

[MathBlade]

Btw Math you used premonition today right?

Precog yeah

Fuck...
That's bad...

Why do you say that is bad?

[Sando]

You’re saying it’s likely scum did X-action so Player Y is Z-alignment

No, I've VERY specifically said I'm NOT saying that (putting things in <> brackets breaks quotes btw so I've rewritten it).

I'm not saying FA being alive is scum indicative, I'm saying it's indicative that scum are more ok with FA leader than Ank leader

My readlist says I see basically zero percent chance FA is scum, why do you insist that I'm SRing her here?

[Sakura Hana]

Why do you say that is bad?

Because that means that even if you get a power (like BP) tonight, you cant use a power tonight coz you already used precog.

[MathBlade]

Why do you say that is bad?

Because that means that even if you get a power (like BP) tonight, you cant use a power tonight coz you already used precog.

That is a good thing.

If scum kill me then it is for a specific reason.

Instead of preventing kills which is kind of imho a fruitless endeavor we should look at WHY the person died. Scum have a nightkill trying to prevent a situation when I don’t have all the cards is folly.

[MathBlade]

You’re saying it’s likely scum did X-action so Player Y is Z-alignment

No, I've VERY specifically said I'm NOT saying that (putting things in <> brackets breaks quotes btw so I've rewritten it).

I'm not saying FA being alive is scum indicative, I'm saying it's indicative that scum are more ok with FA leader than Ank leader

My readlist says I see basically zero percent chance FA is scum, why do you insist that I'm SRing her here?

All of your reads seem formulated in that nature will type more after dinner.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Possible but unlikely because if they had it, why wouldn’t they have used it on FA instead of Ank? The only person whom I’m getting any possible scum vibes off of is Titus and she can’t have both PN and precog, so I think it’s more likely than not scum didn’t want to risk FA kill blowing up in their face, which could only happen if they didn’t have PN, so nah.

Possible, but if you're killing outside of your negate, why FA? I dunno how many unique heroes we had between N1 and N2 (8 I think from glance at my notes), but apart from being unkillable once leader, why is stopping power usage from FA better than anyone else? Maybe even less given FA was heavily incentivised to use a protection ability (which she did).

I'm not saying FA being alive is scum indicative, I'm saying it's indicative that scum are more ok with FA leader than Ank leader, and they cared at least a bit about it since they killed inside the choices. I can't say I'm a huge fan of giving scum what they want, even if I can't discern a motive.

Why not FA? If you weren’t necessarily scumreading the worst, you’d see he made some very good points leading to - what I think is an unlikely conclusion. He understands that it makes absolutely no sense for scum to have killed Ank over FA. His likely mistake is in assuming that FA must be scum because of it. I think scum would have absolutely used Power Negate on FA if they had it. Ank being the kill only makes sense if they didn’t have it.

[zMuffinMan]

oh yeah that reminds me

going to reiterate this every day until this day phase ends

fa should not pick anyone for the superhero team tonight with these shit powers on board

because man those powers largely suck in terms of town utility vs scum utility (outside of healing touch and arguably impenetrable skin) and im pretty sure fa will put scum in her team

at most it should be a relatively small team (2, at most 3) so that any shitty power picks become more obvious

[Sakura Hana]

Speaking of today's abilities im really mad about the inclusion of something like petrification.
But that's something to talk with the mod post-game.

[zMuffinMan]

that's exactly why she shouldnt pick a large team and limit it to like 2 (if picking a team at all)

too little accountability in a larger team (even if there are

potentially

ways to figure out people who misuse their picks, it's still not worth the risk)

[zMuffinMan]

like if i were scum in a large superhero team tonight, i'd pick petrification, not use it immediately (avoid echos and shit catching me out), say i picked impenetrable skin (good reason for still being alive later), save petrification for use in late game

at least limiting the team size greatly reduces the risk of this becoming an issue later on

[stungun0404]

wait guys, i just investigated the powers available during the last day phase. is it possible someone took the double voting power and could use it potentially to hammer just by messaging the mod? that could be dangerous, if so. i’ve seen double votes that work that way, so i want to err on the side of caution.

[Sakura Hana]

Well the only people that could have that are Nancy or FA, Math, Titus, Shiro have confirmed abilities and Ank is dead.

[Sakura Hana]

Well the only people that could have that are Nancy or FA; Math, Titus, Shiro have confirmed abilities and Ank is dead.

Dammit, me and my punctuation.

[Nosferatu]

Nos - I've outlined repeatedly why this is scum, but I think using a tunnel on me for three days to avoid doing anything means that some-point soon you're gonna have to sort it.

whatever helps you sleep at night my dude