Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]

[Irrelephant11]

Alternatively we just play regular mafia this game day, then when we're ready to end the day we pick one or two towny players to make random guesses

[Enigma]

Oh hi, night has finally ended....
Yes, this challenge is quite stacked against town. We are already statistically disadvantaged (by a considerable amount).
And this is not including scum knowing the number. Scum are statistically likely to just win without doing anything, so not sure ..............
No early ideas on strategy here ...

My N1 will was a meme, so not much interesting there

[Prof Fridays]

Real quick as I am about to go into work:

@Irrelephant11: My not-NK15 was an intentional vote as I think consensus lynch is bad and tells us nothing.

Also, mutantdevle did say, "Now is the time to ask questions about the challenge if you do not understand it." I wonder what questions he'll answer?

[Pine]

I don’t really grok the strategy of this challenge.

I misunderstood that the “How do you feel about being trapped” question was meant as a will, so I replied:

Hmmm. Assuming you're asking about being trapped in RL, I'd have real concerns for my mental health. I already suffer from claustrophobia, and the notion of being confined or trapped is frankly terrifying. My chest tightened a bit just thinking about it.

[Irrelephant11]

@Irrelephant11: My not-NK15 was an intentional vote as I think consensus lynch is bad and tells us nothing.

Do you agree with the following:

-Had we not planned something EOD1, scum would have had outsize influence on the lynch
-You have learned nothing from voting outside consensus
-Your slot just got WIFOMier

?

[GuiltyLion]

More content later when I get to a computer but couple quick thoughts on the challenge:
- I don't see a strategy here other than nominating people we think are most likely to be town to take the guess
- unilaterally guessing without a vote/approval to be the guesser should be seen as a scumclain
- while the odds are against us, I think the benefit of this challenge is that we gain some small alignment indicative evidence if someone guesses a number correctly. I think scum would be heavily incentivized to choose wrong, especially if they are the third guess (bc I don't think the towncred from guessing right would be enough at this stage to carry through to endgame victory, so not sure it would be worth it to them to allow another fortunate townie to control the votes/act as named town), so if someone gets a number right they should be seen as more likely town

Other quick takes are NSG looks townie from the readslist and I'm resetting my ofrhz townread after last night. Also will have questions for people based on their votes in a bit when I get to computer

[Kokichi Oma]

Dont like this challenge and dont even really understand it. NSG town, Pine scum

[Irrelephant11]

What do you think of his recent post?

[Irrelephant11]

Sorry, @Kokichi what do you think of Pine's recent post?

[Enigma]

More content later when I get to a computer but couple quick thoughts on the challenge:
- I don't see a strategy here other than nominating people we think are most likely to be town to take the guess
- unilaterally guessing without a vote/approval to be the guesser should be seen as a scumclain
- while the odds are against us, I think the benefit of this challenge is that we gain some small alignment indicative evidence if someone guesses a number correctly. I think scum would be heavily incentivized to choose wrong, especially if they are the third guess (bc I don't think the towncred from guessing right would be enough at this stage to carry through to endgame victory, so not sure it would be worth it to them to allow another fortunate townie to control the votes/act as named town), so if someone gets a number right they should be seen as more likely town

Other quick takes are NSG looks townie from the readslist and I'm resetting my ofrhz townread after last night. Also will have questions for people based on their votes in a bit when I get to computer

Another way we could potentially do it is to vote for numbers to guess, then try to use it as weak-ass future VCA (maybe more useful late game)? Town will effectively be guessing, whereas scum would subconsciously know what they are trying to avoid.

[Irrelephant11]

Mmm I also thought of that, but I think it's too wifom to help. Scum will randomize their own answers to avoid giving info, or have two scum give one wrong answer while the other gives the right one, or neither of these because I've now said them. I think we just play mafia and come back to the game later, and the lion is correct that making a guess without majority approval is a scumclaim

[Irrelephant11]

I'm guessing I'm still alive over teacher because I was similarly widely townread but I did the weird commanding-the-vote thing that will earn me scrutiny. Unfortunately (pun intended) this was the obvious nightkill and I would have scumread teach a bit for surviving the night

Honestly night was so long I forget half my reads

[Enigma]

Mmm I also thought of that, but I think it's too wifom to help. Scum will randomize their own answers to avoid giving info, or have two scum give one wrong answer while the other gives the right one, or neither of these because I've now said them. I think we just play mafia and come back to the game later, and the lion is correct that making a guess without majority approval is a scumclaim

Yeh tbh I was also thinking perhaps we just play mafia and vote on who to lynch (and submit accordingly) then figure out a way to guess the numbers or something.

I forgot NSG was even in the game with this week long night phase .. and I couldn't see him on the ISO and I was like wtf are u guys smoking

[Chickadee]

I think the optimal strategy here is to control who we want choosing the number. I don't see any real strategy on actually picking the good number. I suppose we could talk about what number is calling out to us the most? We have 1/3 shot at getting it right. At least those are pretty good odds.

[GuiltyLion]

@Irrelephant11: My not-NK15 was an intentional vote as I think consensus lynch is bad and tells us nothing.

right so I disagree with this because I think I learned a fair amount from consensus lynch, including the fact that that you decided to vote elsewhere despite what Irrelephant pointed out in 879 - that this vote provides you personally with no additional info. What did you learn by voting elsewhere?

I also saw a couple other votes that I want to press on:

I think NK15 is a saboteur, and will compromise there because I don't think I can get GL lynched.

If you thought NK15 was a saboteur, why didn't you mention him at all in your ISO yesterday even once? Why would my interactions with him have made any sense as SvS? Why was NK15 specifically more likely to be a saboteur for "low contribution" when there are plenty of other slots with as much or less contribution?

I may be already biased on Pine but I really didn't like how he suggested he thought NK15 was a saboteur here, it feels like scum bluffing a scumread because they knew it was a mislynch.

"I want to consolidate on something I think has a chance of going through."

Similarly, you also did not mention NK15 at all yesterday. If you wanted to consolidate on something, why did you let everyone else pick the target during day phase yesterday? It seems like you had no preferences of your own whatsoever for who you personally thought was scum or wanted to lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

Here was my last will:

If I'm trapped, give my love to the townies.

If we get a NK15 scumflip then I was probably killed for being obvtown by pushing on him, wouldn't put too much stock in my other reads. Probably look for people who avoided commenting on NK at all yet voted for him, as I bet scum would want to distance vote if they think he's going down.

If we get a NK15 townflip and I'm killed, it might mean scum was in my periphery - look at WhyMafia and Chickadee? Definitely push on NSG because she is easily capable of putting in a ton of work and obv-towning if she needs to. I sorta doubt scum!Pine would agree to kill me here as I think that would look poorly on him and he'd probably think he could 1v1 me.

If someone else (Pine?) is lynched, I'd look at the voters on that wagon as regardless of NK's alignment (town mislynch or maf), scum probably chose the other lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

and while I agree sharing wills is not a bad idea, why did you ask first without posting yours?

[GuiltyLion]

also I have some ~ thoughts ~ about 878 but since Irrelephant wants Kokichi's opinion, I'll hold on to those until Kokichi replies first

[Irrelephant11]

and while I agree sharing wills is not a bad idea, why did you ask first without posting yours?

If it's helpful, part of why it's helpful is that, ideally, scum would be among the first to share, so they can't edit what they wrote to match other players' wills. I should have said this earlier, but oh well. The earnestness on the part of some to share wills comes across as towny, since I didn't say this.

If you'd like I'll share mine though

[GuiltyLion]

also, I'm not sure I full on scumread ofrhz yet, but I agree with NSG that they are a lot less townie than I originally thought when I reviewed their ISO. And I would look hard at them on a Pine scumflip because I think this post:

316

I think I prefer VOTE: not known 15 right now.

I will be here for the next two hours

was fairly instrumental in solidifying a NK15 lynch instead of Pine (yes, I know Irrelephant asked explicitly for it, but at the time he was the only person to support NK15 over other targets in the conversation in Pine/Chickadee, I see ofrhz as the first follower). And this preference wasn't really substantiated - ofrhz what's your current stance on Pine and Chickadee?

[Chickadee]

I want to double check that what we submit as last will does not count as copy/pasting info from the mod before sharing. Just to be on the safe side. I've been in a game where something like that happened.

Similarly, you also did not mention NK15 at all yesterday. If you wanted to consolidate on something, why did you let everyone else pick the target during day phase yesterday? It seems like you had no preferences of your own whatsoever for who you personally thought was scum or wanted to lynch.

I had town reads yesterday, not so much scum reads. But what I did was the exact definition of consolidating. I went with who I thought would be lynched. That seems to be what you're questioning here. Before it seemed like a semi-solid plan was forming, I was up for lynching within the lurkers/empty posters.

[Pine]

GL distorts what I said again. Shocker.

I didn't mention NK15 yesterday because I didn't mention much of anything. The last week or so were rough for my activity site-wide. I also misunderstood the ruleset, and didn't realize it would be a closed, vote-by-PM setup. Then I didn't realize that our votes (and reasons) would become public.

Yeah, there was a bit of a self-serving angle to my NK15 vote. Obviously. I thought I'd have a chance after the challenge was complete to argue against you, and then when I didn't, I didn't think you'd get lynched out of nowhere. So I compromised for the most likely alternative to myself, which I knew was a bad idea. Reviewing the cases made on NK15, I came to a conclusion that I was comfortable voting there, and added my own thoughts.

If you could do us all a favor and not distort, exaggerate, or misrepresent others' opinions, I'd appreciate it. Don't presume to speak for me.

[Pine]

C/Ping your last will can't me privileged mod communication because it isn't information the mod gave you; it's info you gave the mod.

[GuiltyLion]

GL distorts what I said again. Shocker.

I didn't mention NK15 yesterday because I didn't mention much of anything. The last week or so were rough for my activity site-wide. I also misunderstood the ruleset, and didn't realize it would be a closed, vote-by-PM setup. Then I didn't realize that our votes (and reasons) would become public.

Yeah, there was a bit of a self-serving angle to my NK15 vote. Obviously. I thought I'd have a chance after the challenge was complete to argue against you, and then when I didn't, I didn't think you'd get lynched out of nowhere. So I compromised for the most likely alternative to myself, which I knew was a bad idea. Reviewing the cases made on NK15, I came to a conclusion that I was comfortable voting there, and added my own thoughts.

If you could do us all a favor and not distort, exaggerate, or misrepresent others' opinions, I'd appreciate it. Don't presume to speak for me.

Where did I distort what you said the first time? You've literally never adequately addressed this

Where did I distort what you said a second time? Like I asked you questions, where am I "speaking" for you?! Seriously,

point this out.

also for someone who suggested we should lynch people who are "burdens to town" for not understanding the count challenge, you seem to be not understanding a ton about this entire set-up (voting mechanics, last will, etc). All you've contributed in this post is snark and accusations of being misrepped which you've failed to explain clearly or substantiate in any serious way. And if you want to talk misreps, explain that point you made yesterday about me "jumping on" Chickadee on the basis of her mistake?

I can't take you seriously unless you give any evidence whatsoever that you're reading the game and playing with good intentions, I'm seeing absolutely none so far and as a result I'm also having a hard time seeing myself being able to vote anyone else at this point.

[GuiltyLion]

259

so to align here, you're saying it could be fake, but you don't think it is, therefore you're townreading her

and I'm saying the fact that it could easily be fake (in my opinion) gives me little reason to townread it. hell she could even be scum who honestly messed up and is pissed at an unintentional mistake making her look worse

so therefore I don't really get why you want to give her a townread based on that and therefore I could see it as a scum-motivated townread. I still don't really see where I've blown anything out of proportion or context

to be 100% clear, here is where I addressed your first accusation of distorting what you said

if you disagree with any of this as a fair account of what happened then the burden is on you to show us where I distorted anything.

The most charitable read I can give you here is you were confused and misinterpreted my post here:

it's hard for me to put a ton of stock either way in Chickadee's mistake, but it by no means looks unfakeably genuine to me - having a hard time understanding Pine's townread there, it feels forced

to somehow mean that I said that

you

said it was unfakeably genuine. But if you attempted a serious reread of this sentence without wanting to get in a fight with me, you'd realize and understand that that's

not

what I said.