SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Krazy]

vax is cop checked
espe is cop checked
I'm cop checked

None of these are viable by mechanics right now - we wait a day and then we sort out the cops. This is why I want to lynch CommanderShepard

Not Voting (8): Punreader, Krazy, DeasVail, Espeonage, the worst, Shoshin, guacamole, Vaxkiller

DeasVail could not have done the scum nightkill because I roleblocked him last night.

Guac and the worst were off the bus, have no cop checks on them, and were not roleblocked last night.

Hey Dunn, what're your reads?

Espe Town, Punreader Town, Vaxkiller Town, guacamole likely town by role, krazy seems towny too

Maybe I should take another look at DeasVeil

Sheeping Dunn on TRs leaves me to conclude the worst is likely scum through PoE. What is the defense of the worst at the moment?

[Punreader]

Espeonage

(2): DeasVail,

Fire Assassin

Vaxkiller

(1): the worst

Fire Assassin

(4):

PenguinPower, Dunnstral

, the worst,

Taly

Espeonage

(2): DeasVail,

Fire Assassin

MariaR

(1): Shoshin

Espeonage

(6): DeasVail,

Fire Assassin

,

TehBrawlGuy

, the worst,

Taly, PenguinPower

Fire Assassin

(1):

Dunnstral

MariaR

(1): Shoshin

Espeonage

(6): DeasVail,

Fire Assassin

, the worst,

Taly, PenguinPower

, Shoshin

Fire Assassin

(2):

Dunnstral

, Espeonage

Not Voting

(7): Punreader, MariaR/Chara, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,

TehBrawlGuy

Fire Assassin

(3): Espeonage,

MariaR

/Chara

Dunnstral

(1):

Fire Assassin

Not Voting

(11): Punreader, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,

Taly, PenguinPower, Dunnstral

, DeasVail,

TehBrawlGuy

, the worst

PenguinPower

(2):

TehBrawlGuy

, Punreader

Dunnstral

(1):

Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Shoshin

(1):

PenguinPower

Not Voting

(10): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,

Taly, Dunnstral

, DeasVail, the worst,

MariaR

/Chara

PenguinPowe

r

(4):

TehBrawlGuy

, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin

Nahdia

(3):

MariaR

/Chara,

Dunnstral

Dunnstral

(1):

Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Shoshin

(1):

PenguinPower

Not Voting

(5): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,

Taly

, the worst

PenguinPower

(6):

TehBrawlGuy

, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin,

Vaxkiller

, ManWithNoName

Nahdia

(5):

MariaR

/Chara,

Dunnstral, PenguinPower, Taly

Dunnstral

(1):

Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Not Voting

(2): Nahdia, the worst

Commander Shepard

(5):

MariaR

/Chara,

Dunnstral, Taly

, Shoshin

PenguinPower

(5):

TehBrawlGuy

, Punreader, DeasVail,

Vaxkiller

,

Fire Assassin

Shoshin

(3):

PenguinPower

,

Commander Shepard

, the worst

Fire Assassin

(2): Espeonage, ManWithNoName

If I know Commander Shepherd, and I do, this sudden drastic shift in wagon composition is directly the result of his actions. Compare the VCs from 1575 (before his replace-in) to the VCs from 1820 (after his replace-in).

The strong contrast there is validating a theory of mine, wherein Shoshin is by far the best vote for today, and Espeonage is a fine candidate for the final pun.

PenguinPower

(8):

TehBrawlGuy

, Punreader, DeasVail,

Vaxkiller

,

Fire Assassin

, ManWithNoName, Shoshin,

Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard

(3):

MariaR

/Chara,

Dunnstral

Shoshin

(2):

PenguinPower

, the worst

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Commander Shepard

(3): Dunnstral,

Fire Assassin

, ManWithNoName

Shoshin

(2): Punreader, the worst

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Shoshin

(3): Punreader, the worst,

Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard

(2):

Fire Assassin

, ManWithNoName

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Commander Shepard

(2):

Fire Assassin

, ManWithNoName

Shoshin

(2): Punreader, the worst

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Vaxkiller

(1):

Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard

(5):

Fire Assassin

, ManWithNoName,

Dunnstral

, Shoshin,

Vaxkiller

Shoshin

(3): Punreader, the worst,

Commander Shepard

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Commander Shepard

(4):

Fire Assassin

,

Dunnstral

, Shoshin,

Vaxkiller

Fire Assassin

(4): Espeonage, ManWithNoName, the worst,

MariaR

Shoshin

(2): Punreader,

Commander Shepard

I'd like to point out at some point: it is possible, but unlikely, for guacamole to be pun.
Espeonage has a rather decent chance of being pun, but it is not assured.
Shoshin is as good as lock-scum from VCA at this point.
I will not entertain godfather paranoia for Vaxkiller, even though objectively by VCA he has terrible positioning. (His pattern matches what I would expect from pun and his shot remains unproven.)

Commander Shepard

(5):

Fire Assassin

, Shoshin,

Vaxkiller

,

MariaR

, DeasVail

Shoshin

(3): Punreader,

Commander Shepard

, the worst

Fire Assassin

(2): Espeonage, guacamole

DeasVail has a

chance

of being pun, a chance higher than that of guacamole, but would not be my first choice.

Commander Shepard

(4):

Dunnstral

, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail

Fire Assassin

(1): Punreader

Shoshin

(1):

Vaxkiller

Commander Shepard

(6):

Dunnstral

, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail,

Fire Assassin

,

Vaxkiller

Shoshin

(3):

Vaxkiller

,

Commander Shepard

, guacamole

Fire Assassin

(1): Punreader

Not Voting

(2): Espeonage, the worst

This just about confirms my conclusions.

I will be clearing Vaxkiller because I will ignore the possibility of a pun godfather as that is stupid to consider that a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to target a pun godfather. Commander Shepherd could redirect actions on punbuddies, but only to himself; if Vaxkiller were pun, he would still be a guilty result if the actual investigation were Commander Shepherd.

Commander Shepherd could not, say, redirect actions on punbuddies onto, say, Dunnstral. And if he could, then I refuse to entertain the idea a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to be redirected from pun onto town in the one and only way possible. So he is still cleared.

I have good reason to believe the worst is town.
I have reasonable evidence suggesting Chara/Krazy is town.
guacamole has a chance, but is unlikely, to be pun.
DeasVail has a decent chance at being pun.
Espeonage has a high chance at being pun.

Shoshin is basically confpun.

So from this, Shoshin is the clear lynch.

I may need to explain why this VCA is so damning for Shoshin even though it should be readily apparent to people.

[DeasVail]

I still need to review the Shepard and Fire Assassin slots more closely post-flip, but I have some questions to start off with.

Shoshin

- I would like to ask about a post you made yesterday, 2751. In this post you mention that I have "pocketed the shit" out of you this game, implied as being a point against me. I find this interesting given the following posts from you:

2117
2130
2574

If there were any pocketing then I think it'd be very much a two-way street, and the abrupt change in approach to me is odd.


I also find the following post interesting, given Shepard's flip:

2197

It is clear at this stage that I targeted Shepard night 1 and you night 2, and I've played in a way such that it should be obvious to anyone who I've targeted that it was I who targeted them. Looking back over the above post makes me wonder if you are partners with Shepard who obviously would have known that it was me, but because of your scum-connection with Shepard tried to pretend not to know? Not necessarily something I need a response to, but it interests me all the same.

Also, I'm probably not going to elaborate further on my role unless under duress or massclaim.

----

Krazy, I am also slightly confused by your approach to me over the last couple of game-days. Obviously you came into the game suspecting me, which is fair, yet seemed to be questioning that read from the beginning of Day 4. 2820 seems to imply that you think I am town? However then you revealed that you roleblocked me, which I find to be a strange choice given that I believe you had reason to think that I would not be performing the night kill as scum. This is also unconfirmed, but I actually don't believe I was successfully roleblocked last night? This will become more clear later.

---

Espeonage, Fire Assassin is dead. This is cool. What now?

[Shoshin]

Pun, you're a lot worse at this game thank you think you are, especially when it comes to analyzing Shepard.

Look at Krazy's rankings. Nahdia's ranked high, a 10. Fire's ranked 4, low but not too low. the worst, me, DV, Vax, and Nico are ranked exactly the same as Nahdia/Fire ranked us. There seems to be a coordinated effort here to get Vax/Nico killed while leaving the worst, me and DV alive.

That's about as close as you're going to find to scum rankings.

[Punreader]

What is the defense of the worst at the moment?

For a start, Shoshin is the better lynch, and Commander Shepherd would not be so confident in victory were the worst pun. He was free of suspicion earlier in the game, sure enough, but a prime suspect of nearly half the living players as of yesterday. He's someone who can't make endgame, especially not off of his handling of Commander Shepherd.

Also I have very good reason to believe that if the worst were one of the last pun, he would be doing one particular thing different than what he's doing. (I wish I had a way of hinting at this without giving it away, but alas.)

[Shoshin]

Pun, apply your defense of the worst to me because it actually applies with greater force. If I were scum, Shepard would have been even less confident in victory than if the worst is scum. Like, c'mon. You're push on me is just really bad. I was the main person pushing Shepard over Penguin on D2, and forcefully so (look at the way I try to convince MWNN to lynch Shepard, for example). There's no reaosnable argument that I'm scum here, and suggesting otherwise isn't helpful.

[Krazy]

Krazy, I am also slightly confused by your approach to me over the last couple of game-days. Obviously you came into the game suspecting me, which is fair, yet seemed to be questioning that read from the beginning of Day 4. 2820 seems to imply that you think I am town? However then you revealed that you roleblocked me, which I find to be a strange choice given that I believe you had reason to think that I would not be performing the night kill as scum. This is also unconfirmed, but I actually don't believe I was successfully roleblocked last night? This will become more clear later.

Although I'm not sure how much you understood what happened, I was thinking you were basically locktown when you did not fight me on C.Shep vote or try to get things going on Shoshin. But it is possible you didn't even know you could control the vote? I honestly have no idea how clear the mod explanation was, because I was pretty fucking confused the first time I read it. I would not have targeted you if I had understood how the role worked LOL. Thankfully my replace-in reads were bad enough that it worked out by accident.

[Krazy]

Did anyone get a cat last night?

[Punreader]

Pun, you're a lot worse at this game thank you think you are, especially when it comes to analyzing Shepard.

To the contrary, Commander Shepherd himself indicated that I was almost exactly right on him. He had to play in a

very specific way

in order to fool me. That very specific way has its drawbacks; with his death, it exposes information he did not want revealed, especially coupled with Fire Assassin's death overnight.

Commander Shepherd said he was trying to get himself lynched.

Evidence suggests he was not lying in that claim.

When Commander Shepherd tries to get himself lynched, there is a very specific pattern he must follow in order to achieve that goal.

It involves heavy amounts of bussing, both of his punbuddies on him, and him of his punbuddies.

The players who most frequently voted one another were Commander Shepherd, Espeonage, Fire Assassin, and yourself. All four have votes almost always parked on another within the grouping. This pattern exists most strongly

after

Commander Shepherd replaced in and was almost entirely absent prior to Commander Shepherd replacing in.

I repeat. 1575 shows no pun voting Commander Shepherd, and all town flipped save for Krazy (who is likely town). Your vote was on the alternative wagon to the slot, PenguinPower. Come 1820, after Commander Shepherd's in the game, suddenly you're voting him.

For most of the game, red has been voting red.

So I know that you're pun because I know the pattern used. It fooled me at the time, true enough, but it had to come from a very specific gamestate in order to do so.

[Punreader]

Pun, apply your defense of the worst to me because it actually applies with greater force.

To the contrary.
As the counterwagon to flipped pun, players would be likely to altogether clear you.

This would explain confidence in victory; if Commander Shepherd was confident that his flip would make people treat you as conftown when you're his punbuddy, his strategy would indeed be sensible.

[Shoshin]

Pun, you need to stop relying on what Shepard said after he was lynched. Like, it's absurd that you imagine yourself so capable of understanding Shepard when you thought he was town...

D2 should clear me:

PenguinPower

(6):

TehBrawlGuy

, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin,

Vaxkiller

, ManWithNoName

Nahdia

(5):

MariaR

/Chara,

Dunnstral, PenguinPower, Taly

Dunnstral

(1):

Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin

(1): Espeonage

Not Voting

(2): Nahdia, the worst

Commander Shepard

(5):

MariaR

/Chara,

Dunnstral, Taly

, Shoshin

PenguinPower

(5):

TehBrawlGuy

, Punreader, DeasVail,

Vaxkiller

,

Fire Assassin

Shoshin

(3):

PenguinPower

,

Commander Shepard

, the worst

Fire Assassin

(2): Espeonage, ManWithNoName

Look at what happens between 1518 and 1820. I switch my vote from Penguin to Shepard at a time when there's no reason to do so as scum. Penguin's lynch was all but assured at that point. But instead, I switch my vote onto Shepard and start forcefully lobbying for more votes on him. Like, if you understand the difference between town & scum, you'd understand that scum don't do that because scum need mislynches to win. And note, I didn't just vote him. I cased him and lobbied for more votes on him, at a time when I could have just settled for a lynch on Penguin.

[Shoshin]

Shepard wasn't trying to get himself lynched.

[Punreader]

Shoshin, what do you think of Nahdia?

I don't remember anything she's done today. My thoughts on D1 were initially townie - she made some points about town PP that made sense to me, and I liked something else about her that I can't remember now - but when I reread to finalize my rankings I started to doubt whether she was town. I felt pretty strongly that PP was scum so I didn't like her defense anymore, and the rest of her posting wasn't very good, she wanted to end the day without much interest in scumhunting.

I think if you suspect Nahdia you should take a closer look at Maria, because Maria's basically a much scummier version of Nahdia as far as I can tell. I haven't made a case on Maria yet but when I do I'll make a point of comparing to Nahdia so you can see the parallels that I'm thinking about.

To reiterate, at this point, Shoshin was pushing for the lynch of PenguinPower. This is the first hint of any real comment on Nahdia's alignment and it isn't even a case; it's a "if PenguinPower is scum, Nahdia could be scum by associatives"...which relies on something we know is an impossibility, PenguinPower flipping town.

Because the whole logic train was reliant on an impossible flip, upon the actual flip there was nothing stopping Shoshin from reconsidering the thought and concluding the slot was town.

Alright, picked a random town Penguin game to see if he scumhunts by looking at the players who townread him.

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=75471

I skimmed his iso and he did no such thing. I'm assuming he just doesn't actually do that unless he pulls up some games proving otherwise. So he's scum here, and he's scum for exactly the reasons I've said.

Example of what Shoshin was focusing on.

VOTE: Shoshin

And pray tell why did you unvote PP?

Even in the worst case scenario where I read and hammer before you got to the thread in your opinion I would be hammering scum.

And don’t say the “quickhammer” possibility because your unvote came posts before.

I unvoted because the game he linked shows him questioning townreads so I want to reevaluate without him getting lynched.

If you're scum, your goals entering the thread wouldn't have been hammering PP (that assumes PP is town), they would have been faking town-tells and securing a mislynch.

The first thing you did is try getting Chara to townread you through your "I didn't quickhammer" logic. Except we both know that you're better than that as scum and you wouldn't have hammered PP regardless of his alignment.

Your reasoning assumes PP is town. If you're both scum, you don't hammer in that situation because it doesn't matter if he's lynched or you're lynched, what matters is trying to change town's thinking towards mislynching.

And now you're voting town. Is there any reason I shouldn't scumread you for this?

Yet the moment Commander Shepherd comes in, Shoshin suddenly has a change of tune and pushes the slot.

That change in read is artificial. And it matches the timeline.

Shoshin will flip pun.

[DeasVail]

Krazy, I am also slightly confused by your approach to me over the last couple of game-days. Obviously you came into the game suspecting me, which is fair, yet seemed to be questioning that read from the beginning of Day 4. 2820 seems to imply that you think I am town? However then you revealed that you roleblocked me, which I find to be a strange choice given that I believe you had reason to think that I would not be performing the night kill as scum. This is also unconfirmed, but I actually don't believe I was successfully roleblocked last night? This will become more clear later.

Although I'm not sure how much you understood what happened, I was thinking you were basically locktown when you did not fight me on C.Shep vote or try to get things going on Shoshin. But it is possible you didn't even know you could control the vote? I honestly have no idea how clear the mod explanation was, because I was pretty fucking confused the first time I read it. I would not have targeted you if I had understood how the role worked LOL. Thankfully my replace-in reads were bad enough that it worked out by accident.

I knew that I could have moved it if I wanted to? But I also was fine with Shepard being lynched. My main reason for questioning the roleblock choice was because me making a scumkill would have just been a pretty bad idea. It's pretty suspicious if I target people every night, and then suddenly no one gets a cat. Sure, there are ways to get around it, such as claiming to have targeted a scum partner or pretending to be roleblocked. But I don't know, it seems less likely that I would be making the kill to me?

Did anyone get a cat last night?

Spoiler: Cats!

[Shoshin]

It's be a travesy if I'm lynched this game. I have towntelled in extraoardinary ways throughout the game if you actually read my posts.

[Shoshin]

Pun just can't believe I'm good enough to read Shepard, which is a bad reason to lynch me. I have a perfect record at reading Shepard as both town & scum, and that now includes this game.

[Krazy]

lol I didn't even know that you were confirmed visiting role.

Listen, I had no idea what the fuck was going on in this game. I looked at a town that hadn't flipped anything good and was like, "well that wagon is probably scum, so DV is scum, ez." So my plan was to deny your vote (because I thought we both had to agree, rather than both controlling each other's), and also roleblock you. Let's not overestimate my sense of the game state before Maria flipped and I realized Chara had a waaaay better read of the game than I did.

Who did you give a cat to last night?

@Shoshin, if you don't want to get mislynched please explain why the worst is better than you atm.

[Punreader]

I switch my vote from Penguin to Shepard at a time when there's no reason to do so as scum. Penguin's lynch was all but assured at that point.

That is precisely why it was the time to switch votes as pun. Being on a mislynch would negatively impact how players viewed your slot; bussing a punbuddy, on the other hand, would give lategame town credit.

Shepard wasn't trying to get himself lynched.

Except he was. His wagon and eventual lynch support this quite strongly. When pun are trying to get pun lynched, they can face strong resistance from town who feel the wagon is pun-driven...because it is in fact pun-driven. Thus the no lynch in spite of trying to get lynched. But past a certain point, town rally behind the pun and give them what they want.

The proof is in Fire Assassin.

We know for a fact he, 100%, was bussing.

We know for a fact that Commander Shepherd, 100%, was bussing Fire Assassin.

We know for a fact that cross-bus happened.

Do you deny it?

Of course not. It's evidence readily available for all.

So then there is a logical train to follow from that.

If the pun were heavily cross-bussing, what was the end plan of the cross-bussing?

All evidence points to deliberately trying to lynch a pun player.

And if he were deliberately trying to lynch a pun player (in this case, himself), it follows that there would be players who should be cleared from it.

We know it wasn't meant to clear Fire Assassin, because I stated I was going to shoot him upon a Commander Shepherd lynch and I wouldn't magically change my mind upon seeing his flip. I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin, and he knew I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin.

So if Fire Assassin wasn't the player meant to be cleared from the cross-bussing...

...Who was?

There are only a select few number of candidates.

[Shoshin]

Why the worst is a better lynch than me?

[Shoshin]

I'm going to ignore Pun for the moment because I actually need to figure this out first. If none of the living townies want to town case me, I'll do it myself after I figure the scum out. But really, somoene (Vax?) should reread my play on D2 because there's no way it comes from scum.

[Shoshin]

I don't think the worst is scum.

Last scum is among Krazy, Guac, or DV. I need to figure out who it is, though.

[Krazy]

I don't think the worst is scum.

Last scum is among Krazy, Guac, or DV. I need to figure out who it is, though.

OK, I'm only interested in your case on Guac in that case.

[Errantparabola]

That is, if Fire Assassin voted a player during the day but switched his vote elsewhere, and the player he switched off of died during the night, would it count?

End of day votecount only.

Votecount 5.1

Krazy

(1): Shoshin

Not Voting

(7): Punreader, Krazy, DeasVail, Espeonage, the worst, guacamole, Vaxkiller

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-08-17 09:55:00)

[Shoshin]

Krazy, why are you suddenly convinced that DV is town?

[Krazy]

I'm convinced DV is not the scum that made the nightkill last night because I roleblocked him last night. While this doesn't make him locktown, it makes him not a viable lynch option for today.