Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]

[Irrelephant11]

I think you're wrong there

aside from his posts regarding you is there anything you scumread?

[ofrhz]

prod dodge

i'm still here, i'll be able to get to this game tonight

[Irrelephant11]

Last will:
So, I think teacher and Guilty are towny, but I also think they are both more than capable of faking town for awhile, and I haven't seen the towntell I expected from GuiltyLion. That might just be because this setup is unique, but regardless don't let those two completely coast. Don't get distracted by them, though, if they're consistently pro-town in their play. Other than that, my reads match everything I have said in thread. I have not been notified at this time that I am fortunate (I'm assuming I'd be notified before giving my last will), so don't worry about that. This is too early for this last will thing to be worth much, so good luck all

I'm a little lost on who might be scum honestly. Is anyone around to talk to?

[northsidegal]

hellooooooo!

I'm a little lost on who might be scum honestly. Is anyone around to talk to?

i'm here! i still think ofrhz has a pretty good chance at being scum so i think i'll still be voting there and i recommend everyone do the same, but as for others i think i'm going to start reviewing the ISOs of the people in my "surface towny" group, i.e. enigma and feysal come to mind immediately. any thoughts there?

or, how about we both do the same thing and see what thoughts we both come up with?

[northsidegal]

by the way, has anyone given any thought to my "deadline" idea?

like, what if i just put this out there?

(expired on 2018-08-16 12:52:59)

[Irrelephant11]

by the way, has anyone given any thought to my "deadline" idea?

like, what if i just put this out there?

(expired on 2018-08-16 12:52:59)

+1

also sure, that sounds good.

[Pine]

I think you're wrong there

aside from his posts regarding you is there anything you scumread?

His whole demeanor is sketchy, though I'll grant you his behavior regarding me is especially suspicious, and I'll further grant you a bit of implicit bias on my part.

GL's approach to the game has been to be big, loud, and in charge. When others have offered alternative views, he has essentially flooded them out or shouted them down. He's taken care not to be especially contrary, but he's been trying to take control of the majority narrative. There's also the problem that he's far too confident. Town don't have inside information, and are inherently unsure of themselves. Good Town are always second-guessing and checking themselves for confirmation bias. True, there's a lot of bad Town out there, and even decent, experienced players can fall into that trap, but I see none of that. He backed down off of me not because of my behavior, but when general opinion was turning against his attacks on me and when I turned out to be not a lot harder target than he anticipated.

Frankly, pretty much everything GL has done is the classic "scum mayor" approach. High-key activity, squelch dissent while pissing off as few people as possible, and push your own MLs. He attacked two of the three people who fumbled the count on D1, though he oddly defended Kokichi and instead drove the ML on NK15. If GL flips scum like I think, imo Kokichi should get turbolynched D3.

[Irrelephant11]

282

I'm really not liking GuiltyLion at this point. He's throwing everything he can at the wall to see what sticks, and moving to dismiss or discredit anyone who disagrees with him. I really dislike the bullshit cases and the attempts to stifle dissent. I feel like he's pissy that the case on Chickadee doesn't have more traction, like his plan was to jump on any mistake and push it as hostile action.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

Dude I so do not have time in my life for this. I run a children's summer camp set to serve almost 1500 kids this year, and I barely have time to play this game once. I do NOT have time to relitigate every post or hold your hand through every point.

Examples using just your last post (PE-898): I have never suggested we lynch everyone who is a burden to the Town, it was a single point not a doctrine. Exaggeration and putting words in my mouth. "All you've contributed is snark" is discrediting, as is suggesting that I'm providing no evidence and not reading the game. As for misrepresentation, you have somehow taken my legitimate suspicion of you for your attack on Chickadee and tried to present it as some kind of character assassination.

Let's add a new one: Whataboutism. Instead of engaging my fairly detailed explanations and points in the body paragraphs of 896, you deflected attention away from my riposte and towards a different topic you wanted to press.

Seriously. I am not going to do this every time, especially with someone who has gone out of his way to single me out, particularly when I feel they're very likely scum.

noting these reasons to scumread Guilty before I re-read Guilty.

@Pine aside from a townread on chickadee you've basically tunneled on Guilty all game. Can you please provide other reads?

[Irrelephant11]

oops didn't see your post there. And yes I know it's a lot to say "explain your scumread on Guilty" and also "please provide OTHER reads" so sorry but also not sorry

I'll keep all that in mind when I re-read lion. Not sure I see it, but I agree he's in a dangerous spot for town if he's scum

[northsidegal]

i don't think GL is -unlikely- to be scum but i don't really have any specific reasons to think he's scum over him being town. i don't think that's a distinction i can make without doing some serious reviewing.

[Pine]

Well that's another problem with the strategy GL is using. Spew as many long posts as you can, with much IIOA as you can, and see what sticks. It's easy to bury missteps in a large ISO, and easy to latch onto what works.

[Pine]

Further, with regards to GL's "throw everything and see what sticks" tactic, he's had nearly everyone at or near the top of his scum list at some point or another. As far as I can tell, the only people he hasn't pushed cases on are Kokichi Oma, Irrelephant, and teacher. Feysal doesn't get a case, but barely gets mentioned at all, then drops from a top TR to middle of the pack with no fanfare whatsoever. If GL and Kokichi both flip red, Feysal is where my next vote goes.

Spoiler: Evidence bolded

26

townreads [though at this stage still entirely subject to being revoked swiftly and with little warning]: Irrelephant, Feysal, ofrhz

i would vote you, change my mind:

Enigma, Not Known 15, Chickadee

199

414 is a great post, solidifying ofrhz townread. I was getting town vibes from my back and forth with teacher as well and pitching it as a TvT unprompted at this stage feels real town. Contrast to Pine and WhyMafia, who both tried to stir further shit up on the basis of my back and forth with teacher.

Townies: {Irrelephant, ofrhz, teacher, Feysal, Kokichi}
not really scummy but wouldn't cry if they flipped: {random, Mylo, Enigma}
scummy: {NK15,

Pine, WhyMafia

, Chickadee}

WhyMafia

- do you remember the last game we played together? I don't see how I'm being any more tryhard in this one than that one.

Pine

- why the TR on Chickadee?

if people aren't feeling the NK15 vote I'm down to vote Chickadee tonight since there's interest there amongst my townreads

253

I'm totally fine with voting any of {NK/Chickadee/Pine/

Mylo

} but would prefer NK/Chickadee as I think they are the most actively scummy whereas Mylo just hasn't really played yet and Pine is always kinda standoffish and scummy. Chickadee's "hey you're a lurker where is your content" question to Mylo looks to me like it could be either SvS or SvT, but either way it looks worse on Chickadee than Mylo. But if you all hard commit to Mylo then I'll vote him instead, most of all I want a decent 4/5 person consensus on a wagon to reduce the odds of someone else randomly getting lynched. If we fail to come up with a plan and we have a smattering of votes across the board, higher odds for town to get flipped and it's easier for scum to be able to explain away tactical votes

VOTE: ofrhz

I'd probably start here.

new and improved reads
{Irrelephant, NSG, Mylo, Kokichi}
{Pine, Feysal, Prof Fridays}
{Enigma,

ofhrz

, Chickadee}

[GuiltyLion]

GL's approach to the game has been to be big, loud, and in charge. When others have offered alternative views, he has essentially flooded them out or shouted them down. He's taken care not to be especially contrary, but he's been trying to take control of the majority narrative. There's also the problem that he's far too confident. Town don't have inside information, and are inherently unsure of themselves. Good Town are always second-guessing and checking themselves for confirmation bias. True, there's a lot of bad Town out there, and even decent, experienced players can fall into that trap, but I see none of that. He backed down off of me not because of my behavior, but when general opinion was turning against his attacks on me and when I turned out to be not a lot harder target than he anticipated.

Frankly, pretty much everything GL has done is the classic "scum mayor" approach. High-key activity, squelch dissent while pissing off as few people as possible, and push your own MLs. He attacked two of the three people who fumbled the count on D1, though he oddly defended Kokichi and instead drove the ML on NK15. If GL flips scum like I think, imo Kokichi should get turbolynched D3.

so I disagree on a few points here about Pine's assessment of my play but I don't foresee anything productive coming out of arguing about those

instead I'll make this larger point: none of the points in Pine's post here are actually scum-indicative, none of them have anything to do with my content but rather simply my playstyle

is there any reason to think that I'm more likely to be scum playing "mayor" or "big, loud, and in charge" rather than town playing the same way? Or are you just assuming that I'm scum first and then writing a narrative about how my playstyle benefits me as scum?

I also don't think I've been especially "confident" - like I said D1 to teacher, I try to be forceful because there's no pressure on people otherwise - again, ESPECIALLY without active wagons and votes - but that doesn't actually track to confidence in my reads. The very fact that I backed down on you instead of trying to push through a 1v1 death tunnel should indicate to you that I'm not as confident about anything as you're suggesting I am.

and one last point: you are absolutely wrong about me attacking people for fumbling the count and I'm getting sick of this misrep without you acknowledging my response and the fact that you're too stubborn / out of your element to admit that you're just simply wrong about it.

I have literally never attacked anyone on the basis of fumbling the count.

Not Chickadee, not you, not teacher, not Kokichi. If you disagree, quote the post where I did that. Otherwise quit saying it because it's objectively not true.

[GuiltyLion]

like how you can you accuse me of both:

a) being too confident
b) shuffling my reads around and "throwing everything at the wall"

if I were confident I'd be tunneled on one thing and not bouncing around between reads/suspects

[Pine]

like how you can you accuse me of both:

a) being too confident
b) shuffling my reads around and "throwing everything at the wall"

if I were confident I'd be tunneled on one thing and not bouncing around between reads/suspects

Those things are not contradictory. Confidence is internally-focused, shuffling reads is external. One is how you think, the other is how you present your thoughts. Very different.

[Pine]

and one last point: you are absolutely wrong about me attacking people for fumbling the count and I'm getting sick of this misrep without you acknowledging my response and the fact that you're too stubborn / out of your element to admit that you're just simply wrong about it.

I have literally never attacked anyone on the basis of fumbling the count.

Not Chickadee, not you, not teacher, not Kokichi. If you disagree, quote the post where I did that. Otherwise quit saying it because it's objectively not true.

No, you were very careful not to invoke the fumbles in your attacks, though you repeatedly argued that Kokichi's fumble shouldn't count against him when you defended the ever-loving shit out of him. In fact, the very fact that you didn't mention the fumbles in your attacks is weird and suspicious - it's a valid point, but you seemed afraid to use it against people you allegedly thought were scummy, as if you didn't want to establish precedent in case it got used against you.

What's actually suspicious is the

timing

. Someone fumbled, and you pounced. Chickadee messed up, and you immediately attacked her. I made a mistake, you attacked me. The fumble was implicitly, but carefully not explicitly, the subject of your attacks. Kind of clever, actually. I was all ready to quote it, but you were super careful to have an alibi.

[GuiltyLion]

But everything I post is external? You don't have a window into how I think, you only have the words I choose to present to you.

You're accusing me of being scum because I'm not unsure of myself and second-guessing myself. I would say that the evidence that I'm unsure and second-guessing myself is out there for all to see in how I reassess my reads. If you're looking for evidence of me being unsure in the form of my posts saying "well Pine could be scum but gosh guys I just don't know", sorry, that's not how I've chosen to play this game or write most of my posts.

p-edit: that last post is again just assuming the agenda first and then writing the narrative to support it. I had Chickadee as a suspect as early as 139, prior to any mistake, and only pushed on you when I started suspecting whether your Chickadee read was genuine and you started writing bullshit to support a case on me. You can't say I'm attacking people on the basis of mistakes, then when I call you on that, switch it to attacking people after they've made mistakes. There are two players who made mistakes that I never attacked and players I attacked who never made a mistake.

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like he's pissy that the case on Chickadee doesn't have more traction, like his plan was to jump on any mistake and push it as hostile action.

you were very careful not to invoke the fumbles in your attacks, though you repeatedly argued that Kokichi's fumble shouldn't count against him when you defended the ever-loving shit out of him. In fact, the very fact that you didn't mention the fumbles in your attacks is weird and suspicious - it's a valid point, but you seemed afraid to use it against people you allegedly thought were scummy, as if you didn't want to establish precedent in case it got used against you.

What's actually suspicious is the timing. Someone fumbled, and you pounced. Chickadee messed up, and you immediately attacked her. I made a mistake, you attacked me. The fumble was implicitly, but carefully not explicitly, the subject of your attacks. Kind of clever, actually. I was all ready to quote it, but you were super careful to have an alibi.

like, the transition between these two posts is what's frustrating, Pine would rather assume that I'm scum first and then use it to explain my play, rather than genuinely open to re-considering his read on me. First he says my plan was to push any mistake as hostile action, then when confronted with new evidence that I've never done this, he says the mistake is implicitly the subject of my attacks and the fact that I never actually pushed a mistake is me being "careful to have an alibi".

I laid out my actual reasons for scumreading Chickadee in 738 and 812. I still think those hold (to some degree - but just for you Pine I'll note that I'm not 100% confident) and it's why I've been poking at her repeatedly today.

[GuiltyLion]

I agree he's in a dangerous spot for town if he's scum

also this might be true

but let me just tell you that I'm in a dangerous spot for scum because I'm town

@NSG and @Irrelephant, what do you guys think of Enigma? attacking Chickadee here is what I would expect scum in his position to do if he doesn't want to go after more active/difficult mislynch targets. He's a scumread I feel better about as I reread his ISO. and NSG if you're on the scum!ofrhz train then I see an associative there as Enigma has never commented on ofrhz and ofrhz has responded to a few of Enigma's NAI posts (D1 is boring, plan for the challenge) and then gave him a casual townread in 414.

[northsidegal]

@NSG and @Irrelephant, what do you guys think of Enigma? attacking Chickadee here is what I would expect scum in his position to do if he doesn't want to go after more active/difficult mislynch targets. He's a scumread I feel better about as I reread his ISO. and NSG if you're on the scum!ofrhz train then I see an associative there as Enigma has never commented on ofrhz and ofrhz has responded to a few of Enigma's NAI posts (D1 is boring, plan for the challenge) and then gave him a casual townread in 414.

i don't really think it's all that unlikely. one thing that stood out to me in his iso was this:

242

-snip-

This will probably dig my grave a bit, but if I was scum I would want to coast through this game (as I'm currently doing now ). They have very little pressure of death and can easily slip under the radar by just counting and not really contributing.

243

And because of that, my lynch pool would be one of those who have counted but haven't really added any content (so there are probably 3ish of them atm).

the argument could be made that the thing he does where he points out his own play as scummy is scum-indicative in itself, but what i'm mainly interested in is the second point. if enigma knows that he's town and also knows that he's coasting through the game, shouldn't it give him some pause as to saying that the other people coasting through the game are his lynchpool? i'm not exactly sure how to describe this best, but it could be revealing of his mindset: that is, he knows that he's scum and he knows what he's doing, so he takes behavior that he knows is coming from scum and uses that to form a lynchpool of others.

i guess something else that could be scummy would be the lack of a mention of pine in the end of day vote thing that we all did. he said that both pine and nk15 were in his lynchpool, so i guess i might expect at least something about that.


despite all that, i still feel more confident in ofrhz being scum, and as such i would still (still plan to, that is) vote there before i would vote enigma.

[northsidegal]

i guess in short: as an associative read i think it makes sense, and even if ofrhz were to be town i would still say that he might have a decent shot of being scum; all that being said, i would still flip ofrhz before him.

[Irrelephant11]

I think it's still probably true that Guilty is town, upon re-read. If he keeps weirdly surviving every night for the whole game or his actions in later challenges is notably anti-town I'll get more suspicious (part of why I have not liked any challenge so far - neither of them have much room to learn who the traitors are by their challenge play).

So. nsg and lion are town. I'll sheep nsg on mylo like others do until there's more reason to not (from either of them). I'm liking Prof Fridays for his active sorting since replacing in and to a lesser extent I like Pine, too. I think his push back against Guilty isn't necessary as scum, since he could just NK him and brush him off for now. I also have been feeling a little paranoid of Guilty's positioning, so I get that, too. It's possible this is me overthinking an otherwise not very towny slot, though.

That leaves me with Kokichi/chickadee (for reasons stated yesterday I would be surprised if both of these were scum, though not if both were town), Feysal, Enigma, ofrhz. I thought I was townreading enigma last game day, hm. WOW re-read and nsg's points above are actually pretty condemning - except now that I re-read his D2 stuff it's not so bad. I think my scumreads are something like...

{kokichi oma}
{chickadee, enigma}
{feysal, ofrhz}

All of this said, the first challenge and many players' lack of activity has me paranoid of one or more players deepwolfing. I don't think it'd be particularly hard, and I'm concerned we're too focused on generally lurky players. I hope this will get clearer over D2, when ISO's aren't so cluttered

[Irrelephant11]

The more I stare at my stated scumreads' ISOs the less I see scum play in it. You know that wiki article about towntelling/having good townreads/having good scumreads/being charismatic and about how you should know which ones are your strengths? I think my strengths might be just the first and last

[Myloninja13]

prod dodge

i'm still here, i'll be able to get to this game tonight

Literally this lol

[Kokichi Oma]

I think you're wrong there

Why