SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Krazy]

You know what else

Look at everyone in this thread going into this game day.

Literally everyone was lost and confused. The worst, you, me, and shoshon have been flipping reads on and off. Dv has no idea. Guac has no idea. Vax has no idea.

Pun has a really strong idea, but pun is like on some other planet. Whatever.

Only esp comes in and is comfortable voting me and calling it a day. No second guessing. No analysis. No puzzling over what all these flips mean

Esp cant fake being confused and he cant fake second guessing because the setup is so confusing he doesnt know how to get into detail without slipping.

His reads are fake. His certainty is fake. His role is fake. His lack of confusion is unbelievable in that I literally see no explanation other than that he is scum.

[the worst]

bro have you read a game Espe has ever been in?

[Shoshin]

Could Espe be scum? Yes. Is Espe scum? Unlikely.

To believe he's scum, you'd have to believe that he intentionally lost the bet (unlikely because scum wouldn't have so easily given up the opportunity to vig Dunn), that he ranked his partner Fire a 0 (unlikely because scum wouldn't have put themselves in position to potentially be killed via rankings), that Fire intentionally faked a guilty on his partner for no reason on D2 (unlikely because even if we had lynched Espe, scum Fire would have had to survive multiple day phases as well as a likely SK in game where scum should have assumed another cop role that would eventually flip town).

[Shoshin]

Contrary to what Krazy is saying, none of the things I'm pointing about Espe are "WIFOM bullshit" - it objectively hurts scum if they can't vig a townie, it objectively hurts scum if they fake a guilty to bus with no clear benefit, and it objectively hurts scum if they die in the ranking phase.

Espe is town unless he's a very anti-scum scum, and it's just very unlikely that scum would play this anti-scum.

[Shoshin]

If Pun isn't going to shoot guac, we should lynch Pun. I don't see the point of keeping Pun around if she's not going to cooperate with us on guac.

[the worst]

I really can't advocate for lynching probtown. I need Pun to check in here and confirm they'll work with us though...

[the worst]

it's like literally their wincon to hear us out :/

[Shoshin]

Pun isn't playing towny at all, so I don't see any reason to believe she's town other than your speculation that your role somehow confirms her (it doens't, your role is what it is and has no necessary connection to anyone else's - if anything, it just helps us figure out if scum lied and if they did we can catch them and if they didn't we can trust the rankings, which is valuable in and of itself).

[Shoshin]

I started reading through DV's games. His play here feels really underwhelming compared with his play as town. His play as scum is really strong, but it's also underwhelming in the same way his play here feels.

[the worst]

do you think they're likely groupscum? I think I need a lot of sleep and some Berocca to attempt to get an accurate read Pun based off play. I might be skewed by the fact I think I know who they are and have read plenty of that person's games.

pedit: I'm pretty surprised how absent DV has been--do you think him active lurking is AI?

[Shoshin]

viewtopic.php?f=54&t=76227

Like, read D1 of that game. The level of thought and engagement from DV just feels different from here.

[Shoshin]

I don't think lurking is AI for him, no. But the depth of thought, and the waffling on Shepard, that stuff is. Like, think about how I went about reading BV - depth of thought was the key thing where I saw a big difference - and that's what I'm seeing as well on DV - just a very differnet depth to his thinking in that other game. There just feels like lot more questioning of every detail of evidence as compared with here.

[the worst]

the thing that's throwing me is he doesn't feel like scum who's like anywhere near winning this

[Shoshin]

What do you mean?

[the worst]

if he's scum with FireAss + CShep it basically means he took the back seat and let both of them do their crazy shit when like neither of them ever fully left the lynch pool? and it kinda doesn't feel like he's reached 8p and gone "o boi better effort again"

idk I don't think gamestate totally spews him as town but (the thing I didn't wanna outright say earlier) if he's scum with a partner here I actually can't pick his partner right now

[the worst]

I'm gonna need to sober up to compare Partition!DV to SUPP2017!DV.

[the worst]

ngl though first impressions his knee-deep early leap into this game and how fucking good his reads were insanely early are spooking me.

[Shoshin]

Like, he starts this game off with an early townread on Fire for terrible reasons (a read that I questioned early, mind you, because it was actually a really bad read, I just didn't realize DV was really good as town so I didn't hold him to much of a standard).

[Shoshin]

In Partition, he's immediately onto Kokichi. Just good instincts compared with here.

[Shoshin]

And then look at the team mafia game where DV is scum. I'm curious what you'd think of that.

[the worst]

His bottom 3 brackets in partition had like {t/s} each. And his instant zMuff call-out was like....really really nice.

okay I'm gonna compare the pair vs. this game with a finer comb probably tomorrow. I could potentially be off the mark with DV. my current feeling is just that I feel like there's more likely partnered scum in {Krazy, guac}.

[Shoshin]

The one thing that throws me off about DV is that guac gave him a 0, so it's unlikely they're partnered.

[the worst]

I haven't really looked into the semantics of a Krazy/DV team ngl

[the worst]

Probably the next things I need to do here are work out how likely I am to be wrong about DV being town/soloscum and I'd I am, who his partner is. the Krazy/DV thing is just weird because there's a very good chance Krazy claimed a correct delayed roleblock on DV last night. like there's a chance they did it for the theatre and to free Krazy up to NK last night with all the drama I guess..

[the worst]

I think I'm running low on think, and I might pass out pretty soon. :/