SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Shoshin]

the worst, do you agree that Vax is town?

[Shoshin]

I should be town as fuck to the worst, to be honest. He's actually seen my play as town more than anyone else in this game, as well as my play as scum, and should know by now this is town.

[the worst]

Yeah Vaxk is almost certainly town here. and we're not lynching another novice 1 shot vig who tried to bait the NK via sketchy claiming.

[Shoshin]

Mafia is among guac, the worst, Krazy, and DV. Two of those are mafia. From the worst's perspective, this game should be easy. What's there to discuss?

[the worst]

the only thing that pinged me in the last 24 hours about you is the fact you haven't really been playing the way I would expect someone with your role to play (i.e. try and tank d1 to keep the number of flips tidy--especially since you later called me our for giving Nico a 0). But ngl I think this would have played out differently if you'd had other players in your ear and post bodyguard shenanigans I know for a fact that if left to your own devices you'll weigh up the benefit of your role vs. the boons of conventional scumhunting and towncred before actually making any moves

so I'm pretty comfortable that this is town indicative as well

[the worst]

because fmpov Pun and Vaxk are both town and their reads have just flown out the window. I need Pun to have a look at my counter case on Espe and tell me if they're willing to reconsider. and I'd like it if Vaxk actually engaged with me again

[the worst]

ugghhh having said that if we lynch today and there's 2 NKs we hit 5p LyLo tomorrow which means we should almost certainly lynch DV today. like killing both of his potential partners first is very very prudent but I don't want to risk the game on being wrong about one of my townreads rn.

[Shoshin]

I didn't want to interfere with a natural scumhunting process so I played this game as if I was vanilla.

[the worst]

which is like on point with your bg consideration of whether conftown whose reads you thought (correctly) were shit was worth saving at the cost of your own life

[Shoshin]

We should lynch the person most likely to be scum and that's guac.

[Shoshin]

Guac's given up, too. Like, he knows he's going to die at this point so he's not even bothering trying to fake any semblance of interest in the game.

[Shoshin]

You won't like this comparison but Pun's another player like Nancy - cluelessly manipulated, demonstrably incorrect, yet still unquestioningly confident in themselves to the detriment of town.

[the worst]

in context I agree with that comparison.

in a broader context we'll probably both be in another game with Pun someday in the future and I'll give you a much more detailed read....but there's no real value going into it here...

[Krazy]

Honestly I'm starting to think Shoshin is either playing the worst or the worst is playing Shoshin but I'm not sure which is which at the moment.

You two need to take a step back and stop playing around your shitty previous game as the sole basis of meta. Unless you both are going to agree 100% it's DV+guac. In which case you need to start explaining why you reach that conclusion.

[the worst]

VOTE: DeasVail
I..... kinda think this is the mechanically correct lynch today.
we're probably in 6v2 right now. if this is a mislynch then tomorrow were either:
4v2 (pun doesn't kill)
3v2 (pun shoots town)
4v1 (pun shoots scum)

if we're in the middle bracket, and if DV is scum, it's an autolose.

in a vacuum I think he has less scum equity than guac and Krazy but he's still firmly in the scumpool. if I'm going to reconsider that one+ of my townreads are scum, I'm not going to do it in 8p when it feels like there's far more likely red flips on the table.

@Pun, I trust absolutely that you're on our side. I just think your reads on Shoshin and Espe are wrong. if we're wrong on 2 of {DV, guac} I absolutely promise I'll hash this out with you tomorrow. but we need to make sure there's actually a tomorrow. trust me back?

[the worst]

we're at this point where one of us is basically confirmed to be pants on head wrong with our reads, but I actually feel insanely calibrated right now. and I think this lynch wins it for us mechanically.

[Krazy]

So I did start this day with the assumption it was best to find the scum who killed dunn.

And none of you... NONE OF YOU FUCKS POINTED OUT THE OBVIOUS

Fire killed dunn.

So yeah effectively my roleblock on dv did nothing for helping us find scum today.

I did previously rule out the worst + dv as a scum team.

The other problem I have with dv being scum is that he was on cshep for two days. Thats a lot of commitment to that bus.

Especially when he had my vote and could have lynched sho instead.

Like you can say esp is unlikely because esp was nearly lynched by fa, but then you are ignoring the ACTUAL LYNCH of cshep when it comes to dv.

[the worst]

how much towncred are you giving for being on the CShep lynch?

[Krazy]

Considering there was a no lynch the previous day?

More than zero. More than a not-actual-lynch between fa and esp thats for sure.

[the worst]

I'll pay that. ngl if I was scum with CShep and aware of how hard he was pushing a gambit claim that was also bullshit while basically going down in flames, I like to think I would've bussed his ass. and I don't even like bussing.

[Krazy]

Also, I want to say every time I have seen someone claim their role is a "red herring" in a large theme it has flipped scum. This vanillaize shit really bothers me.

[Shoshin]

So scum is
Deasvail
The worst
Dan/Shoshin

Sounds good.

Ok. New scum team.
Espe
Pp
Maria.

Low points
DV
The Worst
Nico
Action

Everyone else is a little higher.

Also, just going to go with Screen's reads and vote his lowest ranked person, for the moment.

VOTE: PenguinPower

I have no issues sharing his rankings if someone asks.

10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP

10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP

punreader probably would have been moved down a little, Fire Assassin, based on today, also would move down. Maybe Dunn, too, MariaR I'd probably put around where Nahdia is and it would mostly be because that's about as town as I'd ever put MariaR.

Espeonage would move up just based on Fire Assassin's claims.

I would rank deasvail a little higher, but only because I don't remember reading anything by them, probably the 1 point slot.

Also, I am wondering whether I should say who spoke to each other last night, what do you think, ducky?

I think that if Fire Assassin faked a guilty on someone, it is a pretty good excuse to pick someone who might be ranked in the same area as him and then talk about his role later and how "Oh, I guess he was ranked higher than me"

I don't think a scum does that to scum, so Fire Assassin scum read means Espeonage is town.

I don't like the claim of a straight guilty when Fire Assassin should have known from the beginning that his role could come with a fake guilty.

I'm always confused by this, how is PP an "easy lynch" if it's taken over a week to get him to L-2?

Like, what is a hard lynch in people's books, then?

Fair take. I'm at a loss for whether that comes from town PP or scum PP though.

this is actually looking more coherent than expected. I'm more concerned about certain players than others in that pool right now but I think rn more content will help me a lot.

Where your scumreads at right now if you aren't reading PP as scum?

Welcome Commander Shepard.

VOTE: Fire Assassin

You kn ow what?

VOTE: Shoshin

@Krazy

This is why you vote Guac:

1. Screen lurked most of D1, ranked Nahdia/Fire a 5, and then replaced out of the slot, all of which is more likely to come from scum Screen than town Screen.

2. Chara, who you should know was town, suspected MWNN more than anyone else before replacing. Look at her reasoning. It's good.

3. MWNN came into the game refusing to vote for Shepard, even after both me and Maria lobbied him for votes there. For some unknown reason, he was opposed to voting Shepard, instead choosing to vote me on D2, before eventually circling back to a lynch on Penguin before allowing the Shepard wagon to gain steam.

4. Guac also refused to vote for Shepard, instead voting for me. He never gave any reason to townread Shepard, insisted that he didn't townread Shepard, yet his actions clearly demonstrate a belief that Shepard is town. That's a scum-tell, a massive one. Scum often defend their partners while insisting that they're not townreading their partner. I can point you to countless examples of scum doing this, yet you'd strain to find townies doing this.

5. He says he didn't connect the worst and Pun even though the two are probably connected (unless Pun & the worst are the last mafia, which is possible but unlikely). While it's possible that scum have the exact same role as Guac, the most likely explanation is that Guac in fact connected them, then when I questioned why he connected them, he couldn't come up with an answer so he decided to say he didn't connect them. This sort of lie is consistent with the way scum play the game.

6. He's making no effort to scumhunt or figure the game out. The moment he sees some support for a wagon on Espe, he joins it.

[Shoshin]

Also, I want to say every time I have seen someone claim their role is a "red herring" in a large theme it has flipped scum. This vanillaize shit really bothers me.

I'm sure there's people who would say the opposite: "every time I've seen someone claim their role is a 'red herring' in a large theme, it flipped town." I can certainly point to many examples of "red herring" town roles, and by that, what I mean is roles designed to give scum mislynches.

Espe's role is proven via Dunn... the vanillaize shit is proven via Dunn... and the fact is that two scum gave Vax a 0, guaranteeing that Espe wouldn't be able to shoot Dunn.... not to mention that Espe gave Fire a 0, which is risky for scum... plus the way that Espe played around Dunn was extremely townish, insisting that Dunn was town despite nobody else being able to see it... plus the fact that Fire nearly got him lynched in a situation where there was no need for scum to bus their own like that...

Your entire case on Espe reduces to a possibility. But mafia isn't a game about what's possible, and if you make your decisions on that basis, you're going to mislynch more often than not. You win by evaluating what's probable, and there's just too much evidence showing that Espe is town, especially when compared to other players like Guac.

[Krazy]

The double 0 on vax is what bothers me even more. If im in a large theme, I do not believe the d1 claims. Pun was lying. That they believe it and act accordingly makes it seem like they know it is real, which is only possible if esp is scum. The 0s point to esp scum not to esp town.

[Krazy]

Like when was the last time you saw a bunch of d1 claims and were like yep 100% believe all that shit, better adjust my votes