SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Krazy]

Like did you adjust your votes based on puns claim?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: DeasVail
I..... kinda think this is the mechanically correct lynch today.
we're probably in 6v2 right now. if this is a mislynch then tomorrow were either:
4v2 (pun doesn't kill)
3v2 (pun shoots town)
4v1 (pun shoots scum)

if we're in the middle bracket, and if DV is scum, it's an autolose.

in a vacuum I think he has less scum equity than guac and Krazy but he's still firmly in the scumpool. if I'm going to reconsider that one+ of my townreads are scum, I'm not going to do it in 8p when it feels like there's far more likely red flips on the table.

@Pun, I trust absolutely that you're on our side. I just think your reads on Shoshin and Espe are wrong. if we're wrong on 2 of {DV, guac} I absolutely promise I'll hash this out with you tomorrow. but we need to make sure there's actually a tomorrow. trust me back?

Fuck this. This is straight-up fearmongering and it's not how we should be deciding today's lynch, especially if you think guac and Krazy are scummier. The best way to win this game is to lynch scum, not to lynch people out of fear.

Worst-case scenario, DV is town and Krazy scum and Krazy wins tomorrow because of his voting mechanics.

Best-case scenario, DV is scum, in which case his partner is obviously guac, so you lynch guac after him. But then why not lynch guac today?

In virtually any scenario, the most likely scum is guac, so that's who we should be lynching. He's by far the scummiest player in this game, and he's the only player that plausibly makes sense as scum with any of the potential scum.

[Shoshin]

Like when was the last time you saw a bunch of d1 claims and were like yep 100% believe all that shit, better adjust my votes

I believe D1 claims most of the time. Like, if you look at this game alone, most of the D1 claims were legit. If you look at other games, D1 claims are usually legit. And if you analyze in a vacuum, D1 claims don't mean anything about a player's alignment but 75% of the time a player is town so it's probably town, and if you add in behavioral evidence, that likelihood goes up.

The fact that you don't ibelieve D1 claims s a reflection on your skill as a scumhunter, not a reflection on others.

[Shoshin]

Like did you adjust your votes based on puns claim?

My rankings were based entirely on behaviors, but others based their rankings on mechanics (e.g. Dunn). I'm not going to get into a discussion about which approach is more legitimate, but I know for a fact that it's not AI - it's just a reflection of that player's scumhunting framework.

[Shoshin]

The double 0 on vax is what bothers me even more. If im in a large theme, I do not believe the d1 claims. Pun was lying. That they believe it and act accordingly makes it seem like they know it is real, which is only possible if esp is scum. The 0s point to esp scum not to esp town.

This is absurd. You're conf biasing or you're scum. If you're scum in a large theme, why wouldn't you believe townie claims?

If scum have the chance to vig Dunn via Espe, they don't needlessly tank that opportunity by giving Vax two 0s. The reason they gave Vax two 0s is because Vax hinted at having a provable role plus he had been lurking in a way that made him likely to receive low scores from some townies, so scum were probably hoping to get rid of him before he could prove his role.

[Krazy]

I won't rule out the possibility that I am conf biasing, although I think we are looking at this point from different presuppositions about scum behavior. I am assuming a strategy of risk mitigation whereas you are assuming a strategy of opportunism and aggression. While you may disagree I think your disagreement hinges more on scum interpretations of day 1 claims. I think it is interesting that you totally believed the bet and not mason shenanigans or something else. That says a lot about how you are approaching this game.

The worst, did you believe the bet was as it was said to be?

[Shoshin]

Krazy, you're read on this game is wrong. For starters, I didn't "totally" believe the bet. If you look back, I was skeptical until Dunn flipped. Second, I'm talking about what's probable. There's massive risk for scum to guarantee that Dunn wins the bet, because Dunn could have shot Espe. There's also no risk for scum if Espe wins the bet, because Espe gets to choose how to use the role. Thus, whether you look at it from a perspective of "opportunism" or a perspective of "risk mitigation," the likely conclusion is that Espe isn't scum. Third, the way scum interpret claims on D1 is mostly irrelevant to the issue we're discussing, but even so, you're wrong about the idea that scum disbelieve town claims on D1, especially when those claims are made truthfully in the way Dunn/Espe claimed or in the way Penguin claimed. It's not hard for scum to see that those claims weren't lies.

[Shoshin]

Why are you defending Guac? If you're going to insist that Espe is scum over Guac, explain why Guac is town.

[Krazy]

lol I'm not defending guac, I'm trying to get a read on your slot, and this sense that you generally believe claims from the town is really interesting. I kinda don't even care about the Esp argument right now, I need to mull over that for a bit.

unvote

[Krazy]

Sho why did you give Dunn a 6 and Esp a 3?

[Shoshin]

I thought Dunn was more towny than Espe. I thought Espe was underwhelming as a player, whereas Dunn dropped a few towntells.

[Shoshin]

What's your read on Guac?

[Shoshin]

Why wouldn't scum believe claims from townies? Like, wtf? I understand if scum don't believe a townie who claims bulletproof, but even then, scum probably won't shoot them because "risk mitigation," your words. But when it comes to odd claims like Dunn's or Penguins, what reason do town have to lie about that, and why wouldn't scum believe them?

[Krazy]

I think it's safe to say that Guac's slot is objectively hard to read.

Mostly what you said pinged me because I am still alive while claiming in twilight that I was commuting DV. So you kind of explained:
a) why you, as scum, would direct FA and Shep to 0 Vax
b) why you, as scum, would kill Dunn over me last night
c) why you, as scum, would kill Dunn over DV last night

I think I get what Dunn meant by a lot of what you say pinging him. For someone who mostly seems very towny you say a lot of shit that makes sense from scum POV.

BTW, you had no passives or second abilities? The other ranking townie had a passive right? So you have the most vanilla role in the entire game?

[Krazy]

For someone who knows there are two ranking townies in the game, you seem to think the scum would be very confident in their ability to manipulate the bet

[Vaxkiller]

because fmpov Pun and Vaxk are both town and their reads have just flown out the window. I need Pun to have a look at my counter case on Espe and tell me if they're willing to reconsider. and I'd like it if Vaxk actually engaged with me again

PUNS town? cmon, your not even a little worried hes a 3rd party? I mean this non-sense makes me think maybe he offed his partner for cred. Shoshin is town and you have to be scum. Ill engage with you, but I really dont see the point, are we going to argue why you arent scum?

[Vaxkiller]

VOTE: DeasVail
I..... kinda think this is the mechanically correct lynch today.
we're probably in 6v2 right now. if this is a mislynch then tomorrow were either:
4v2 (pun doesn't kill)
3v2 (pun shoots town)
4v1 (pun shoots scum)

if we're in the middle bracket, and if DV is scum, it's an autolose.

in a vacuum I think he has less scum equity than guac and Krazy but he's still firmly in the scumpool. if I'm going to reconsider that one+ of my townreads are scum, I'm not going to do it in 8p when it feels like there's far more likely red flips on the table.

@Pun, I trust absolutely that you're on our side. I just think your reads on Shoshin and Espe are wrong. if we're wrong on 2 of {DV, guac} I absolutely promise I'll hash this out with you tomorrow. but we need to make sure there's actually a tomorrow. trust me back?

This right here is telling me theworst wants any lynch possible.

[Vaxkiller]

Mafia is among guac, the worst, Krazy, and DV.

this is where im at

[Vaxkiller]

Except I like krazy posts

[Vaxkiller]

and I think the worst looks the worst here. Look if someone else were scum (and no the worst) they would start AGREEING with my read because im basically confirmed town at this point

[Vaxkiller]

please, my people sheep me

[Krazy]

vote the worst

Compelling points for why I am wrong on esp, shoshin is plausibly the one being played, the main problem being that we need other people on board.

I think shoshin even explained why he is scum early in the dayphase before he started hard buddying her.

PoE and VCA both say the worst has a solid chance to flip scum. Hopefully I don't make the wagon uncool by being on board.

[Espeonage]

Krazy, why do you think that you should have been killed last night so badly.

We're I scum I would have probably shot Vax. Conf town and didn't come out about 1 shot until today, so that makes a brilliant kill for scum at that juncture. Second would have been Dunn the other mechanically confirmed town player. Everyone else on the playerlist is not confirmed town because mine fizzled when it was finally proven to be a fucked up fake result.

So I don't get where that narrative is coming from, and it feels like something cooked up that has fallen flat so you're going to try and beat a dead horse for all the confusion you can like shep did.

For the record I also agree with Sho's lynchpool assessment above. I would order it as probably Krazy, Guac, DV, worst at this point. Scum worst doesn't need to meta me like that, and scum DV also doesn't need to defend me like he has. Basically I've started giving cred to people who are resistant to town lynched.

Also Krazy, in what world does town take an automatic loss at 2/2/1 when they can take a stab with a lynch and if it hits, go to 4 man night, hope that both kills hit the same person go to 1/1/1, force a no lynch and hope to got that the SK is killable, forcing a cross kill.
If you are the SK and are bulletproof you also always win that because town has to take the only small chance of winning in trying to kill scum.

I am convinced that pun is SK, and that their reads are made opposite to further their ends, and thus are trying to lynch me or Sho.

[the worst]

What are you talking about Vaxk? I want a lynch in {guac, Krazy, DV}. if we're epically wrong and DV is alive in 3v2 it's an instant scum win.

look whatever I'll take a Krazy or guac flip if you all won't hear me out but DV's loved modifier has me anxious as hell.

[the worst]

I'm really not comfortable being lynched while I have a dichotomy with three players left in it. I actually think Krazy is more obvscum than guac right now.