SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Krazy]

Then fucking vote him. Vax is assuming you are scum because you are voting people THAT CANNOT BE FUCKING SCUM

Your vote on DV is bad

Your vote on me is bad

If you get lynched, and you are town, it is totally, 100%, on you

[the worst]

I really don't understand your logic aboht yourself and DV being locktown

[the worst]

whatever. guac flips red.

VOTE: guacamole

[Krazy]

Actually, Sho's logic is significantly worse than yours, the worst. I apologize for rage capsing.

But you are not presenting the plausible scenario from your point of view. For me or DV to be scum, you would have to be pairing us with Sho. But this is important--Sho HAS to be scum, for you to even consider me or DV as a possibility.

For you the question is not whether Sho is scum, the question for Town!TheWorst is who is Sho's partner.

Town!TheWorst worries about a DV+Sho scum team in addition to a Sho+Guac scumteam. (as well as Krazy+Sho scumteam)

I did not have to deal with that scenario since from Sho's POV she knows she is town.

This game actually is significantly more complicated for a town!theworst than a town!sho because the worst was not at l-3 yesterday.

[the worst]

I kinda don't get your reasoning right now. I've been reading players off how I'm interpreting their play, and like it doesn't feel like I'm wrong about my reads.

but I'm also pretty exhausted and distracted. I want to lynch guac regardless. I think it'll be easier to parse all of this later because there's probably something you and vaxk are seeing which I'm just not parsing right now.

[the worst]

sorry if I was rude there by the way. I don't think you're a dick in a general sense, I think I'm just vexed.

[Vaxkiller]

Hey Pun, who CAN you shoot tonight, im sure you have a list of the rankings.

[Vaxkiller]

Shoshin is town. Vax is town. Pun is whatever the fuck pun is. Esp is TOWN (this part is important). DV is town. Krazy is town.

Why is espy TOWN in caps? Like yeah probs... not sure why DV is town and I think your town because of your posting, but not locked.

[the worst]

pun can shoot guac or you tonight and that's all

[the worst]

and it sounds like they're shooting GUAC only (if they shot you I'd be pissed) and only on the proviso that we lynch Shoshin or Espe

[Shoshin]

Being at L-3 is irrelevant because it wasn't LYLO...

[Shoshin]

Vax, why'd you shoot Shepard?

[Vaxkiller]

Vax, why'd you shoot Shepard?

I sheep'd someones elses read because I didn't feel like I was doing to well in this game at that point.

[Shoshin]

Who did you sheep and why?

[Shoshin]

Why would you shoot someone if you didn't feel like you were doing well?

[Vaxkiller]

I really dont know off the top of my head, is it important? If your trying to make sure im not scum, let me remind you im cop' inno'd (by the real cop) on top of everything else that makes me scream town.

[Vaxkiller]

Why would you shoot someone if you didn't feel like you were doing well?

1 shot and I wanted to use it.

[Vaxkiller]

Hmmmm, I think I remember thinking the flip would give us valuable info, maybe it is worth looking into. I'll do that later.

[Errantparabola]

Votecount 5.4

Espeonage

(2): Punreader, guacamole

the worst

(2): Vaxkiller, Krazy

guacamole

(1): the worst

Krazy

(1): Espeonage

Not Voting

(2): DeasVail, Shoshin

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-08-17 09:55:00)

[Krazy]

My comments last night were mostly focused on a FYPOV for Shoshin, extrapolating on The Theory of Espeonage.

Shoshin's Theory of Espeonage:
When evaluating scum behavior, you must consider both the opportunity cost and the loss-risk of an action.

So, in the case of scum rankings for vaxkiller with the possibility of Espeonage as a scumbuddy, we need to look at the opportunity cost (losing Dunn as a free nightkill) and the loss-risk.
While tanking Vax's score with Esp as a scum buddy might work as buddying, scum would still not do this, because the opportunity cost (losing Dunn as a free nightkill) would be too high.

This is a solid metric, but what I have not understood throughout any part of this day, is why Shoshin applies the Theory of Espeonage to that slot but not to any other part of the game.

We can very easily apply the Theory of Espeonage to the Day 4 Vote

In the Day 4 Vote, there is the apparent value in a bus and distancing, but there is also the missed lynch on Shoshin.
In considering Day 4 vote, for Krazy or DV to be scum, and for Shoshin to be town, you would have to accept:
-That scum would take the value of a bus distancing over a guaranteed kill on a night immune townie
-That scum would take the value of a bus over a denied town lynch on scum
-That scum would take a voluntary loss to their numbers on the same game day that they know one of their team is going to be vigged

If you are even willing to entertain the notion that Espeonage is likely town because of the ranking votes on Vaxkiller, it becomes demonstrably absurd to consider that scum would give up a guaranteed lynch on a night immune townie.
Opportunity cost -- the costs are too high.

Again, this does not make my slot lock town to other people, unless you a) accept Espeonage is town, and b) know that Shoshin is town. If you do not maintain either of those positions, then you can entertain a suspicion of my slot.

However, if you believe my slot is scum, then your optimal play would be to lynch Shoshin, because while either me or DV could be scum, Shoshin definitely has to be scum for her not to get lynched yesterday.

Whether it was lylo or mylo is totally irrelevant. This is a two body swing--a lynch kill on Shepherd AND a denied kill on Shoshin.

[Shoshin]

To be clear, those are your metrics, not mine. I consider a lot more than just "opportunism" and "risk" when deciding who's scum.

D4 wasn't LYLO, so a "guaranteed mislynch" doesn't matter if it exposes all the scum. Scum don't always mislynch town when given the opportunity because they're thinking about survival more than mislynching, and that means evaluating how town will respond to the flip (a flip that scum already know).

[Krazy]

At this point, simply looking at VCA, you can at this point see clearly why Fire Assassin even put C.Shep to L-1. He believed C.Shep was actually going to finally go down, and he wanted there to be uncertainty as to whether Espeonage was or was not part of the scum team. If he does not bus, he risks the hammer on C.Shep coming from Vax + Espeonage, which makes the entire scum team off the wagon. At that point, you just look at the votes and you can see clearly that it is the worst + guac.

This is all assuming of course that you do not think Pun is actually scum and shot his own buddy. But I rule this out more because I find it unlikely that the scum have 2 night kills each night rather than 1, rather than because of anything from pun's play or reasoning.

I think Espeonage is actually right as well. I was wrong about Punreader. He really does want to lynch town today, and through VCA he is totally confident the worst + guac is the obvious scum team, but is trying to come up with convoluted reasons that we should lynch town today instead.

This game is actually much more simple than it seems. If you look at VCA, you simply say, scum is probably among Espeonage, the worst, and guac. If you can rule out Espeonage, it's the worst and guac. The game basically solves itself.

This explains why guac denies connecting the worst and pun, because they need distancing. There is no other secret mechanic. Guac just lied to distance himself from the worst.

This explains why Pun is trying to get a lynch on Sho or Esp.

I feel good about this.

Sho you can keep going around in circles if you want.

[Shoshin]

OK, you want a trip into "Krazy has just entered his first large theme in half a decade" fantasy land?

Point of evidence: Town has lynched nothing but town for the entire game and I just replaced-in to a townslot that for all I knew gave up hope on figuring out this game. This led me to suspect most of the town had no idea what was going on in this game.
Possible conclusion: The leading wagon is probably scum-led at this point

Point of evidence: There is a wagon on CS.
Question: Why is there a wagon on CS?

Point of evidence: There is a missing SK nightkill.
Possible conclusion: Scum have found the SK?

Point of Evidence 2 : There is a missing shot on CS
Possibility 2: The scum think the SK is NI so they have to kill it through lynch for gamewin

1-Hour of Large Theme Conclusion: CS is the SK, has NI, was roleblocked, and therefore this wagon is a mafia-led wagon lynching the SK so they can use their roleblocks elsewhere

Premise 2: Town needs SK alive, since this might be lylo, or very close to lylo. At this point, SK aims for scum. At the very least, SK continues to be roleblocked and votes with town.

Wild guess: The GF is the person who doesn't have many/any votes on him

If town was so shitty, wouldn't scum just let the town implode on itself? Like, why would you assume the leading wagon was led by scum on an SK? Scum usually sit back to let the town mislynch itself so I don't see why you'd make that assumption.

Why'd you assume there's an SK?

Why'd you assume that scum think there's an SK?

Why'd you assume that scum think the SK is NI?

Why'd you assume that Vax is GF instead of town?

None of this makes any sense.

[Shoshin]

If scum bussed, why didn't the worst or guac bus?

[Shoshin]

How are the worst & guac aligned if the worst ranked guac a 0?