SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE


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Post Post #3500 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:35 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 3495, DeasVail wrote:Nonetheless, he seemed confident about lynching guac, yet very easily joins Shoshin in voting me, despite reportedly not having a strong scumread on me.
the worst wanted to lynch you over Guac, or at least that was my impression. But I agree with your points about Partition mafia.
Shoshin, I believe you're putting more emphasis on "dodging questions" than you should be. I also don't remember how I went from townreading Shepard to scumreading them, except that I was never strongly townreading the Shepard slot (which you have interpreted as distancing) and in the end decided that my reasons for doubting they were scum just didn't hold up anymore. I've also already answered why I thought their reaction to me visiting them might have been a town tell. Sure, I was wrong, but I don't get the repeated questioning of it.
I didn't interpret "townreading" as distancing. You didn't really explain why town would be more likely to openly suspect you after visiting them than scum? Like, your role isn't AI so that interpretation doesn't make sense to me. You've said it's a town-tell but I don't know why you'd think that.
In regards to the "possible" vs. "probable" argument, the fact that we disagree on reads or even what should constitute reasons for reads, is not something that I believe will be helpful in you working out a read on me.
How are we supposed to make a decision if all you're doing is speculating about possibilities? We can talk all you want about how scum might have fudged the rankings, or how they might have bussed, or whatever, but that doesn't get us any close to making a decision. Like, you give lots of commentary about what's possible but why is that relevant? We need to make a decision, and to do that we need to evaluate what's likely.
I'm not saying that scum fudged the rankings. I'm keeping it in mind as a possibility since the difference between one person giving someone a 4 and giving them a 0 is not going to make a huge difference to the overall score. And I was under the impression that while estimated averages were close, they also weren't quite right, but if I am wrong about this I am happy to be pointed to the evidence that you mention.
Look at Pun's posts on rankings.
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Post Post #3501 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:06 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 3496, DeasVail wrote:Shoshin, I feel that you are including in your read of me an attack on how I am approaching this game and I think the fact that I don't agree with you shouldn't be seen as something that is indicative of scum.
My points aren't an attack on how you approach the game, except to the extent that your play here is underwhelming compared with your town play. These are the facts:

1. You pushed Penguin over Shepard on D2 for reasons that don't make a lot of sense to me. Given two wagons, one on town, the other on scum, I think scum are more likely to push the mislynch over a lynch on their partner. I gave you an opportunity to explain your reasoning more in-depth to help me understand your thought process, but instead you're attacking my questioning.

2. You went from townreading Shepard to scumreading Shepard on D3 but you don't know why. I think scum are more likely than town to say something like this because townies usually have a reason for changing their reads, whereas scum often change them as part of an agenda they can't openly talk about.

3. You suspected Shepard throughout D3 but when other options presented themselves (e.g. Maria) you immediately jumped on those instead, which makes me think you didn't actually want to lynch Shepard.

4. Your play has been underwhelming compared to your town play, which you admit.

5. The rankings suggest that Guac's town if you're town, so there's a strong reason to lynch you before Guac. The evidence also suggests that Guac's scum via behaviors, which adds more reason to lynch you via assocations.

6. There aren't any negative associations between you and Fire/Shepard, so there's no reason to clear you on that basis. There's also no clear evidence of town anywhere in your posting. I've asked you for that evidence because maybe I'm missing something, but you haven't pointed to anything.

That's the facts. Yes, I'm interpreting these facts as scummy, but I don't think that means I'm attacking how you approach the game, it means I'm analyzing probability of alignment based on your behaviors. If you're town, you know that I'm wrong, but I don't know that, so from my perspective, this isn't an attack on your approach and just vaguely saying that without actually addressing what I'm saying isn't helpful to sorting you.
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Post Post #3502 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:36 am

Post by Errantparabola »

Votecount 5.7


DeasVail
(2): Shoshin, the worst
Espeonage
(2): Punreader, guacamole
the worst
(2): Vaxkiller, Krazy
Krazy
(1): Espeonage

Not Voting
(1): DeasVail

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-08-17 09:55:00)
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
--implosion
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Post Post #3503 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:06 am

Post by Krazy »

Atm thinking sho v dv is tvt and feeling good about the worst+guac tbh
vote conspiracy
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Post Post #3504 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:09 am

Post by Shoshin »

You think scum gave their partner two 0s?
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Post Post #3505 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:41 am

Post by the worst »

In post 3503, Krazy wrote:Atm thinking sho v dv is tvt
talk to me about this because I'm not totally sure I hard read this
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Post Post #3506 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3504, Shoshin wrote:You think scum gave their partner two 0s?

the worst did not get 2 0s fam.

At this point I think I'm more likely to be wrong on guac than the worst. Hence my current vote location.

This wagon is giving me the exact same vibes as C.Shep wagon.
vote conspiracy
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Post Post #3507 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:36 pm

Post by the worst »

*eyeroll*
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Post Post #3508 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Guac received 0s from the worst AND Shepard...
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Post Post #3509 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by Krazy »

Yep, you could be right. If you prioritize rankings over all else, DV looks better as a buddy for the worst.

I can see a the worst + DV scum team. It's not impossible. I give you that.

But that does not make DV a better lynch for today.

I mean, Sho, FMPOV, the worst has three potential buddies: Guac, DV, and you.
You think tw's a little scummy and want to case DV. You seem likely town based on play.
DV wants to case you but accepts tw's a little scummy. DV seems likely town based on my feeling of the slot during day 4 but I could plausibly be wrong.
Guac thinks tw's a little scummy and wants to stay on Espeonage. The only reason right now to think Guac is town is because of some lowkey bussing during ranking phase.

Literally anyone right now works as his partner. The buddy wants to distance but not bus, the town can find no reason to explain why he's town but want to pursue their own leads. Town do town things.

Which is exactly how things were on day three, except the roles are all switched. Now you are Espeonage, and I'm Dunn, I guess. Kinda. Maybe the analogy doesn't work but it makes sense to me.

No one can explain why the worst is town because he's not. No one is defending because the partner has no value in buddying someone already on their side and the town can't find any evidence because there is none. They just want to finish sorting other players and be the dope carry that found the best scum.

This is what day 4 felt like for me. It's the same vibes. The scumbuddy just wants it to go away but can't make it.
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Post Post #3510 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:01 pm

Post by Shoshin »

@Krazy

If the worst is town, who are the scum?

If the worst is scum, who is his partner?
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Post Post #3511 (ISO) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

If DV is town, I promise to lynch the worst tomorrow.
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Post Post #3512 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:02 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 3501, Shoshin wrote:That's the facts. Yes, I'm interpreting these facts as scummy, but I don't think that means I'm attacking how you approach the game, it means I'm analyzing probability of alignment based on your behaviors. If you're town, you know that I'm wrong, but I don't know that, so from my perspective, this isn't an attack on your approach and just vaguely saying that without actually addressing what I'm saying isn't helpful to sorting you.
Honestly I'm not especially interested in reading each of your points and finding ways to counter them. A lot of what you are saying is true, after all. This is an underwhelming town game for me. I'll take your word for it that there's not much about my play that makes me an unlikely partner for Fire/Shepard. You're right that I wasn't that keen on the idea of a Shepard lynch. My "excuse" for lynching PP over Shepard was that I thought PP was more likely to be scum at the time, but it's true that I don't have more detailed thoughts than that to give you.

Your observations are often correct, but a lot of what I've said in the last few posts is not an attack of you by any means. It is me commenting on the fact that despite your observations being correct, your inferences are obviously wrong, and I'm commenting on what I believe may be the flawed thought processes that have led to those incorrect inferences.

Since your first reply to the post where I was suspecting you, I've actually totally lost motivation for scumreading you. I disagree with you on a lot of things, but I get the sense that you are probably town.

I will also say though, that you seem to be taking the game a lot more seriously than I would be able to, which is cool. I love it when people get super into games. I love it when I get super into games. But that's not a place that I can be in right now.

Nonetheless, I am going to go with this:

VOTE: the worst
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Post Post #3513 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:05 am

Post by DeasVail »

And I invite you, Shoshin, to join me.

Wouldn't it be ridiculously beautiful if after all this we led a wagon on scum together.

In some ways it would be even more beautiful if we were both town, the worst is town, and our moment of reuniting resulted in a town lynch!

But I'm also a bit messed up and see beauty in messed up things.

Maybe you're scum and this post will be even more ridiculous.

That would be kind of great
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Post Post #3514 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:06 am

Post by DeasVail »

now I'm trying to work out whether I would make that post as scum or not.

Hmm, I probably would.

But it's hard to know really
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Post Post #3515 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:06 am

Post by DeasVail »

I'm not high, I promise.
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Post Post #3516 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:08 am

Post by DeasVail »

Spoiler:
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Post Post #3517 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:32 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 3513, DeasVail wrote:And I invite you, Shoshin, to join me.

Wouldn't it be ridiculously beautiful if after all this we led a wagon on scum together.

In some ways it would be even more beautiful if we were both town, the worst is town, and our moment of reuniting resulted in a town lynch!

But I'm also a bit messed up and see beauty in messed up things.

Maybe you're scum and this post will be even more ridiculous.

That would be kind of great
This made me laugh.
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Post Post #3518 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:33 am

Post by Shoshin »

Hmm.. Maybe DV is town. Maybe he's manipulating me. I dunno. Can't tell.
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Post Post #3519 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:42 am

Post by Krazy »

Together!

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Post Post #3520 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:34 am

Post by the worst »

tfw there is exactly one town on my wagon :facepalm:
I keep wanting to ask people why they're eating this shit up but {Krazy, DV} is prolly just s/s
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Post Post #3521 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:39 am

Post by guacamole »

Nice pic.

Still working hard. Still following along. Still not seeing much movement.
Chunky and a little spicy.
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Post Post #3522 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:33 am

Post by DeasVail »

In post 3519, Krazy wrote:Together!

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Exactly!
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Post Post #3523 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:04 am

Post by Shoshin »

It'd be nice if anyone who isn't voting the worst or DV could weigh in on those lynches...
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Post Post #3524 (ISO) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:05 am

Post by Shoshin »

Pun, Guac, and Espe all need to weigh in...

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