Micro 814: Geriatric Trio (Mafia Victory!!!)

[Not_Mafia]

Lynch nonny ffs

[Aristophanes]

That's a hammer!

Twilight until I get a chance to do this.

[Invisibility]

btw

@mod VLA until the 19th

[Music Box]

So what does musicbox have to say on Oath? There's post 118, where she asks Oath not to self vote but doesn't give an opinion on Oath's alignment. There's post 146, where upon being explicitly asked her opinion of Oath, she gives an answer that doesn't go strongly either way, but kind of implies that she doesn't really believe Oath's selfvoting is a scumgambit. And that's it really.

Prior to 118, I commented on Oath's posting at least three times, including in 117, immediately before 118. Why did you ignore that? I know I didn't actually use the word town, but I think the implication was pretty clear. In 146 I was replying to a specific question about the claim and self-vote.

So, who does she express suspicion of during day 1? She mentions Komala in post 118, saying that she'll explain more later that evening or the next morning. Where does she come back to that? In post 213, well into day 2, where she remembers that she never followed up on her promise to explain why she was scumreading Komala... And then proceeds not to explain why she was scumreading Komala.

Real life got in the way and later on it seemed less relevant, especially since Komala had been replaced so couldn't reply to it. My comment about it in 213 is me saying I disagreed with nonny about 48, not that I was going to follow up on it right then. Although I would've done if anyone asked me to.

As for NM, he's perfectly capable of being more cooperative than this. He was choosing not to. I can see scum motivation in that but I can't see any town motivation.

[hitogoroshi]

going through the playerlist and wow if not_mafia is scum michel is far and away the most sensible buddy. Hard to think of who hito's ghost wants in a lylo where not_mafia redflips but then michel greenflips. Maybe...KMD? But I still think his method of extreme deference on n_m (as opposed to michel trying to proactively clear on wagonflow) doesn't seem like what you'd do for a scumbuddy.

If n_m is town, I guess it's a question of whether this really was an n_m icebox (ie the wagons were town-town) or if nonny is scum. If nonny is scum, invis is probably who I look at as the partner. Actually thinking about the playerlist more, it's invis by a pretty big margin even, hard to think of someone else you put on a nonny scum team. If it's town-town it gets tricky because kmd/michel make sense in that world as well and that leaves us a pretty big list.

Music Box I think is pretty likely town for threatening both hammers today. if it's one town and one scum you wouldn't think music box would be threatening both ways, and if they're town/town it's still a good sign because that's a lot of putting yourself out there to influence an outcome scum don't actually care that much about.

so the tl;dr is that music box is about the only unconditional town read I got. I think it almost has to be michel as not_mafia's scumbuddy. if not_mafia is town, there's sort of two distinct paths to go down. if nonny is scum invis is far and away the most likely buddy. but there's also a good chance that n_m town still means nonny town also and it's michel +...I haven't dug TOO much into this thought yet but I think KMD is what would work out here. So my scumteams I'm looking at are {n_m, michel}, {nonny, invis}, or {michel, KMD}, this flip knocks 2 or 1.

maybe more twilight thoughts but breaking this out in case thread lock comes

[Not_Mafia]

I'm town

[hitogoroshi]

oh yes I am also

V/LA aug 19 - aug 20

and then after that I will be posting some but probably not as much. also will be in EEST time zone, I am visiting estonia.

not to keep piling on michel but it seems weird that he mentioned "without even considering that my arguments might come from a town perspective". Because umm, if I was scum I would know who was coming from what perspective on account of the moderator telling me at the beginning of the game. He didn't address my actual *thoughts* on his argument:

I mean...if he's scum, he only has a single scumbuddy. It's totally possible that he has a scumbuddy who thinks he needs to be bussed as an inevitability, or is just too lazy to defend, or too scared of being anchored to him. The game is too small to use wagonflow as a general argument, you have to cough up specific names.

It's implying, I guess, that if I had believed him as town I would have also sheeped his read and ignored the above? and that since I didn't do that, I must be scum? But the language of intent - that this is a calamity that will befall me for not believing in him - is a real real bad look on n_m greenflip

pedit hey n_m who's nonnys scumbuddy then

[hitogoroshi]

HMM I thought invis was most probable nonny partner thinking about todays posts but when I looked back at nonny iso I found this

I'm not keen on any of the other wagons but if it comes down to choosing between them then I'd be voting RC.

Why RC? Why not Invisibility?

Those voting RC (oath and hito) can you say more about why you're voting him? Went back and read the vote posts because I really couldn't recall clearly why.

also i'm voting oath because she is the most scumme
i'm going to iso people tomorrow and try to get more reads

How's this going?

NOW - that's that. I'm town- go back and reevaluate all your reads and stop pushing up on weak shit.

Do you have a read to share that isn't "pushing up on weak shit"? How do you feel about the posts since your claim?

VOTE: Invisibility

and that "Why RC? Why not invisibility?" doesn't really look like partner posting to me

whereas KMD <-> ceejay seems real real plausible. KMD talked to Komala in one exchange at the begining, but after his ISO 8 where he mentions everyone he never talks about him again. And he never says anything about OR to ceejay, except once saying he'd rather lynch nonny (but never addressing me re: ceejay). whereas komala had "suspicion" but voted Oath, and ceejay had a town read where he lumped KMD in with me for the same reason of basically TR for posting, which seems like the way you'd TR a scumbuddy (make sure you TRing a townie for the exact same reason, how can anyone trace it to you being scum with them, hoho).

So yeah, if if n_m flips red lynch michel, if he flips green I think michel/KMD is my most likely scumteam. thems the hito death reads and if not I'll see you in the morning

[Aristophanes]

VC 2.LYNCH!

Not_Mafia

(4): Invisibility 234, Music Box 236, hitogiroshi 294, nonny 296

-- LYNCH!!!

nonny

(3): Not_Mafia 202, Kmd4390 256, MichelSableheart 283

Not Voting

(0): Nobody!

Posts reset in (expired on 2018-08-17 17:00:00).
D2 will end when a majority is reached or on August 16/18 at 10:00pm EST in (expired on 2018-08-17 17:00:00).
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Mod Notes:

Woooooo!

[Aristophanes]

Oh poor Not_Mafia!

He was, in fact,

Spoiler: Not Mafia?

Correct, he was a

VT

!

N2 begins now! Thanks for the patience!
It will end Sunday Aug 19/18 at 10pm EST or in (expired on 2018-08-19 22:00:00)

Get your shit in! XD

[Aristophanes]

Sorry everyone!

Hitogoroshi died overnight!

Spoiler: Were they special?

Yup!

Town Jailkeeper

D3 starts now and deadline is 10 days, not 14! I'll make this fancy later. With 5 alive, 3 to lunch.

[Kmd4390]

*sigh*

So I don't really have strong town reads left. Michel is probably the closest thing to one. I still think it's Nonny/Invisibility. If one of them is town, Music Box is my next pick.

[Invisibility]

I don’t know who’s scum

[Kmd4390]

So...what are you planning on doing to figure it out?

[Invisibility]

Iso and/or sheep hito

[MichelSableheart]

This nightkill is worrying. Hito was heavily tunneling me yesterday, and he expressed suspicion of me even on an NM townflip. Given that he's town, the obvious thing for scum to do would have been to keep both me and him alive, and ride our suspicions of each other to a mislynch.

From the point of view of the other players, the most obvious explanation for why that didn't happen would be that I'm scum who took out someone who was suspicious of me. Which means that I should be under heavy suspicion here. Instead I'm greeted with "Michel's the closest thing to a townread I've got" from kmd, which is extremely disconcerting given the situation.

Still, it seems better to me to respond to the accusations hito made. Now that I'm still alive after the night is over, you deserve an explanation from me, both on why I didn't respond immediately, and on why hito was mistaken in his accusations. Everything that follows has been written during the night, before I knew that Hito was nightkilled.

---

The reason I didn't respond to Hito's accusations yesterday, is that I felt it was extremely likely that NM would flip green, and that given an NM greenflip, there was a pretty good chance I would be nightkilled. If I was nightkilled, I wanted the other players to have a crystal clear idea of where my suspicions were. I feared that writing a response to his accusations would only muddle the waters in case of a nightkill.

The first point Hito makes is the following:

I mean...if he's scum, he only has a single scumbuddy. It's totally possible that he has a scumbuddy who thinks he needs to be bussed as an inevitability, or is just too lazy to defend, or too scared of being anchored to him. The game is too small to use wagonflow as a general argument, you have to cough up specific names.

The odd thing is, though, that hito came to the exact same conclusion I did:

going through the playerlist and wow if not_mafia is scum michel is far and away the most sensible buddy. Hard to think of who hito's ghost wants in a lylo where not_mafia redflips but then michel greenflips.[...]

I knew I was town, so I knew that NM could only be scum if someone else was his buddy. However, as I mentioned in the post hito originally quoted, there was noone who I could see being his buddy. Could I have explained why each player individually didn't fit the mold of a buddy? Sure, but that would have taken time I didn't have when I was writing my original post. So I decided to make the general statement that there was noone I could see as a scumbuddy, and expand if requested.

I don't like how much Michel's post seems to be focused on on-decking the next two lynches, instead of actually sussing out the alignments. Like he says "Now admittedly, day two is better..." re: Music Box like he's disappointed by it (even though it's not his vote!). But y'know, FOR SURE at least one of those three names is town, so shouldn't you be interested in puzzling that out. But the post seems to be solely focused on digging up dirt, not more sorting. Seems like he took the remit of "this is my town read box, this is my scum read box, and this is why" really strictly and artificially.

The thing you must realize is that I didn't go into my analysis of my 3 scumreads blind. That post wasn't written as "let's see who I suspect out of these 3 players", it was written as "this is why I suspect these 3 players." After I'd read the entire thread twice, I had 3 townreads, and 3 scumreads. I explained my townreads first, as knowing those would explain who I was willing to vote yesterday. But that meant I still needed to explain my scumreads. I would still need to figure out which of my initial scumreads was wrong, but the place to do so would be in the discussion that followed my initial post, and even in subsequent days. What I did not want to do was presenting my initial suspicions weaker then they actually were.

Regarding post #295, I believe that in order to scumhunt, you analyse behaviour as "this player is doing A, is that player more likely to do so as scum or as town?". In the case of NM, I felt his lack of reasoning for his suspicions was NAI. As far as I could see from his meta, NM always writes short posts with little reasoning, regardless of alignment. By contrast, based on his attacks against NM, Invisibility feels that it's beneficial for scum to give little explanation for their opinions. That opinion makes it more likely for scum invis to give little reasoning then for town invis to do so. Which means that the active lurking by invis becomes a scumtell.

[MichelSableheart]

Also, given that we're in Lylo now, I think it's a good idea to hold a massclaim regarding the presence of a friendly neighbour. We really could use the information. If everyone agrees, I'm willing to start such a massclaim.

[Kmd4390]

I figure Hito was probably killed for being widely town read or scum figured out he was a power role. I did consider that you'd kill him as scum to take that target off your back, but there are just too many other reasons for Hito to be killed for that to be a solid point and I haven't seen very many reasons to scum read your slot at this point. I do also kind of like that you're the one to bring up hitos suspicions of you. Scum-you could hope that gets forgotten after killing Hito.

I agree we should massclaim. Is there a reason you want to go first? Yes/no is fine as an answer if you don't want to reveal more. Also, do we popcorn, set an order, or just go at it? I think the only benefit to organizing it is to catch scum off guard. Basically I just don't want scum going last. So I'd like Invisibility and nonny to claim as early as possible.

[Invisibility]

ok im a vt

[MichelSableheart]

The main reason I was willing to go first was that I felt I should be under suspicion.

A massclaim should include an answer to the question whether you received a message from a friendly neighbour. Invisibility?

Popcorn generally seems best to me.

[Invisibility]

oh sorry whoops nope

[MichelSableheart]

VT, no message here.

Music Box?

[Music Box]

VT, no message either.

Nonny next.

[nonny]

No message

[nonny]

No message

Oh and I claimed yesterday but VT.

KMD?