Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

Nauci · Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:08 am

I still have a hard time seeing why Gus over Skitter. I thought Skitter or Shoshin would have been the most likely targets.

Nauci · Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:25 am

In post 2377, Irrelephant11 wrote:I thought Bernie's turn on Gamma could only come from town, it was too dangerously attention-grabbing to come from scum (re:bernie bro)

He asked us who are less-experienced to trust him. idk, this setup could include information I don't have that he does. I townread him, I only marginally want the worst dead over mom, and he asked us to BoP him if it doesn't work out. I'm not like giving my vote to Bernie, I'm just not voting the worst this game day because I somewhat trust Bernie.

I think that in the light of recent events (read: claim) and Math-Worst evaluation, I am

extremely

interested in prodding TW to explain what he meant by the NK target comment and potentially claiming if so. I think that it's a major update from when Bernie made the plea.

That, and I'm not seeing a hard scum read on Mom like everyone else seems to. Scummy? Sure. Circumstantially/game state scummy? Also yes. Super ultra gross scum posting? Eh. Seems more like depression apathy (how well I know thee...) + tunneling. I think that after my catch up, even with as much "TW is kind of always like this" anti-bias as I can muster, I just think it's an outright scummier slot.

Nauci · Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:30 am

In post 2380, Shoshin wrote:
In post 2361, Nauci wrote:@Shoshin I think that *everything* Scumrelephant did was calculated, and his votes especially. He was opportunistic, but never blatantly so, and will try to run a wagon up on a player he considers threatening to scum if given the opportunity, as well as fall in line with a popular wagon without the greatest of reasons if necessary, including flip flopping. So don't let Irrelephant sheep without providing perspective, ever. I don't think Scumrrelephant would dare to start any wagons, but I'm not sure if Townrrelephant would either and will need to go read his town game. I do think Scumrrelephant is fairly reluctant to succumb to momentous town reads on formerly easy mislynches though, once he has declared a scum read on someone, unless it's his partner.
Opportunistic, yes. He's jumped around to a lot of popular wagons. But is that calculated? I'm not sure. I could be wrong but I feel like scum don't flop their reads around this much. But you and BV might be right, I'm not that confident in my read by any means. Sort of null for me at this point.

If you want to know why I think he's extremely calculating about literally everything he posts, just skim our scum thread:

viewtopic.php?f=94&t=75864

In that game, he managed to come up with reasons for flip flopping on a number of people and always kept track of keeping certain players viable as lynches for both game state and his POV, and went through quite a number of candidates on Day 3.

Just trust me that regardless of alignment, Irrelephant is tryhard AF, whether out loud in game thread or <elsewhere>. (That's as a compliment, Irrelephant!)

I would have expected Townrrelephant to have drowned us in a small deluge of analysis on your claim and the possible connotations by now.

...but maybe he did it in the scum PT, if there is day chat.

Nauci · Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:19 pm

In post 2383, Irrelephant11 wrote:lol PR speculation was teacher's MO, not mine. I guess my initial feeling is that PR speculation helps scum more than town? But maybe post-full-reveal it would be more helpful to think about...

In the thread, sure

But in our thread, I'm pretty sure you looked through every possibility of fake claiming and other evaluations

I'm not sure why you wouldn't do that as town here because I'm damn sure your mind thought through the possibilities!

Nauci · Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:21 pm

In post 2385, Irrelephant11 wrote:But @nauci I'm just busy this week, I barely have time to keep up with the thread. I'd love to be much more tryhard. I could copy/paste all the wagon analysis I did on my own at the start of D2 if you want proof that I continue to be tryhardrelephant (lol the elephant portmanteaus are my fav), but like you say my effort is NAI. I'm trying my hardest, promise

Effort is AI if it provides insight to your thought process

The asking everyone questions and arbitrary statements are not

Nauci · Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:23 pm

In post 2389, BlackVoid wrote:It might actually be a good idea for TheWorst/Momrangal to claim. If we're going to wait all the way until intent is given, we're probably going to scramble towards deadline and it seems pretty obvious that those are our likely options.

In post 2394, Shoshin wrote:Nothing wrong with getting two claims imo.

If Shoshin isn't the nk

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:24 am

Haven't read Day 3 posts yet but here's my analysis after Night 2:

Skitter is town. Skitter is soooooooooo town.
Day 2 Momrangal basically gave up, so it's very likely that scum bussed her and are on wagon (at least 1, if not both). Especially busworthy if Scum PT was inactive.
IMO, this would be slightly alignment indicative for sorting the rest of the game. People who are on wagon and would like daychat look better, and people who are off wagon and would love daychat look worse (only applicable to people I think would have a clear opinion on the matter, e.g. I'm fairly certain that Irrelephant would
hate
to give up Daychat and been less eager to bus when TW was a viable target unless Irrelephant/TW were the other two scum. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure N_M couldn't give fewer fucks?)
The Worst played within his scum meta, and not terribly like his town meta. Don't have time to link stuff about his town meta at the moment though; hella behind in class because of illness.
I went and skimmed some BV games. Didn't really manage to glean alignment indicators. Was leaning town due to post content but 0 votes on Day 2 pings me badly.
Read Irrelephant's town replace-in game. Feeling better about him (in addition to above note).
Bernie's end of day 1 is much more questionable now.
I'm not sure why Momrangal would tunnel Bernie the way she did if they were scum together. Would that be likely to make him look town, or make him look more suspicious? Not sure how to feel about that.
I guess that's a very, very high chance that Gustavo is town, unless scumGus pulled a night 1 No Kill in hopes there was a JK or Doctor to confuse?
Errant needs to post a lot more. I haven't seen much of anything AI.

Current Reads:

Shoshin - Odd Night Town Doctor
Gamma Emerald - Vanilla Town
Nauci
Skitter
Gustavo
Irrelephant11
Keyser Soze
Bernie Sanders
ErrantParabola
BlackVoid
Not_Mafia
The Worst
Momrangal - Mafia Encrytor

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:25 am

Now that we have several more flips, VCA should be much more telling.

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 1

Gamma Emerald

(7) -

,

#734[/size],

,

#1162[/size],

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #1163

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #1189

,

stungun0404/Gustavo

#1199[/size],

GeminiTwin12/the worst #1300

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst

#1472[/size],

Irrelephant11

#1484[/size],

Invisibility/Not_Mafia

#1485[/size],

Bernie Sanders

#1620[/size]

Momrangal

(3) -

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #5

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola #97

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #315

,

skitter30 #427

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #428

,

#1070[/size],

,

,

#1468[/size],

#1573[/size]

Bernie Sanders (1) -

MathDino/BlackVoid #7

,

,

,

,

#1270[/size]

Shoshin

(1) -

skitter30 #15

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #970

,

Gamma Emerald

#1503[/size]

Invisibility/Not_Mafia -

,

,

,

Keyser Soze -

GeminiTwin12/the worst #227

,

Irrelephant11 #421

Nauci -

MathDino/BlackVoid #189

,

Shoshin #191

,

Irrelephant11 #473

,

Momrangal #799

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #801

northsidegal/Errantparabola -

stungun0404/Gustavo #170

GeminiTwin12/the worst -

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #169

,

,

,

,

stungun0404/Gustavo -

,

,

,

,

skitter30 -

,

,

,

,

MathDino/BlackVoid

-

[/color]

stungun0404/Gustavo #12

,

,

Irrelephant11 -

,

,

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #788

UNVOTE (1) -

stungun0404/Gustavo #136

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #569

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #828

,

Keyser Soze #851

,

Irrelephant11 #900

,

Shoshin #999

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #1191

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola

#1193[/size],

GeminiTwin12/the worst #1303

,

,

,

,

VOTE RECORD BY PLAYER DAY 1

Spoiler:

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 2

Momrangal

(7) -

,

,

,

#1893[/size],

#1947[/size],

northsidegal/Errantparabola

#1953[/size],

GeminiTwin12/the worst

#2073[/size],

,

,

#2368[/size],

#2415[/size],

Invisibility/Not_Mafia

#2426[/size]

GeminiTwin12/the worst (2) -

skitter30 #1627

,

Nauci #1768

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola #1770

,

,

,

,

#2109[/size],

#2175[/size],

Keyser Soze (1) -

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #1674

,

Shoshin

#1928[/size],

Irrelephant11 #2100

Invisibility/Not_Mafia -

Irrelephant11 #1692

Bernie Sanders (0) -

None

Nauci -

GeminiTwin12/the worst #1826

northsidegal/Errantparabola -

None

stungun0404/Gustavo -

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #2010

skitter30 -

Shoshin #1784

,

Irrelephant11 #1910

Shoshin -

stungun0404/Gustavo #1695

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #1783

MathDino/BlackVoid -

Nauci #1638

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #2404

Irrelephant11 -

None

UNVOTE/Not Voting -

Shoshin #1927

,

Nauci #2055

,

Irrelephant11 #2213

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #2320

Vote Record By Player Day 2

Spoiler:

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:52 pm

Unless another PR claims today (which would be very dumb), I guess TW's alignment shakes out tonight on its own now that our doctor is dead.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:59 pm

"

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 2

Invisibility/Not_Mafia (3) -

Irrelephant11

#2505[/size],

Keyser Soze

#2519[/size],

Nauci

#2545[/size]

GeminiTwin12/the worst (1) -

skitter30 #2445

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola #2482

,

Irrelephant11 #2499

,

Invisibility/Not_Mafia

#2536[/size]

skitter30 (1) -

stungun0404/Gustavo

#2508[/size]

Bernie Sanders (0) -

None

Keyser Soze -

stungun0404/Gustavo #2438

Nauci -

None

northsidegal/Errantparabola -

None

stungun0404/Gustavo -

None

MathDino/BlackVoid -

Irrelephant11 #2442

Irrelephant11 -

None

UNVOTE/Not Voting (5) -

MathDino/BlackVoid

#2432[/size],

GeminiTwin12/the worst

#2432[/size],

Bernie Sanders

#2432[/size],

skitter30

#2502[/size],

northsidegal/Errantparabola

#2511[/size]

Vote Record By Player Day 2

Spoiler:

"

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:41 pm

In post 2442, Irrelephant11 wrote:So, I'm treating Gustavo as 85%+ confirmed town, vca says it's very unlikely that Bernie, errantparabola, or Keyser are scum (if anyone wants this in more detail let me know), somewhat unlikely that it's Not_Mafia or the worst, and... that's most of it I think.

That leaves me with BV, skitter, and Nauci. skitter and Nauci are never a team so let's park this votemobile on VOTE: blackvoid, who has yet to vote since replacing in \o/

Also Shoshin said at one point that she was burnt out on mafia and I hope she sees this and decides to keep playing mafia because she was v fun imo

Agreed,

@Irrelephant

.

@Shoshin

, you were awesome.

Also agreed WRT Gus and BV. The rest, not so much. However, the number of town reads you have would be pretty strange if you were scum so +1 pt for House Townrrelephant. Oh and

2458

is interesting, though the formatting of the > >> line was tough to parse. However, I think Skitter started pushing for a momrangal lynch like, halfway into Day 1, which feels pretty absurd.

___

In post 2453, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2447, Gustavo wrote:I don’t think VCA clears Keyser.

Yes I had my EoD1 vote on Mom...

This was ++points for House Town Soze and a large part of my townlean read. It was the vote that made the strugglewagon viable for a moment. If TW were to flip red Keyser would look really good, IMO.

___

In post 2474, skitter30 wrote:i'm kinda waiting to see where tw is going to push today

i'm low-key thinking that he was pushing mom/me/nauci knowing that mom would flip red so that he could then push me/nauci today

i'm still *very* interested in having tw explain how he thinks that makes sense

or how he went from

In post 2075, the worst wrote:
gamestate is highly highly consistent with Nauci and skitter being scum with Mom
. in retrospect vesides recognising that I shouldn't be lynched she hasn't done a lot. I think I was being stupid yday.
to the following when pushed

In post 2416, the worst wrote:
@Bernie you may be overestimating how much I've put into this. it's independent scumreads with the gamestate softly supporting them as partners sometimes.
I'll re-read their ISOs when I have time later though.

Hall of fame post right here. People seem to have been extremely distracted by the bizarro "pr" breadloafing meta, but TW's refusal to answer questions, bullshitting joke posting, and inconsistent, unexplained reads are why I scumread him.

@The Worst

will you respond to Skitter's point? It's an objective point irrelevant to our alignments.

___

In post 2490, Keyser Söze wrote:Take a look at the scummeta Nauci dug up on TW on D2

If TW is town here it is genius play. What a gambit. Play out your scum meta to perfection, but actually be the town PR to save the game

___

In post 2528, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2526, Nauci wrote:Skitter is town. Skitter is soooooooooo town.
Based off what?

You think it's plausible that Scum!Skitter would, beginning at page 18, push for a lynch on Momrangal, who was providing Day Chat to the scum PT, when Skitter is a pretty talkative person who would likely make great use of Daychat?

___

Scum Worst fake claimed gooncop in Open 719

Fake claim of some sort of copping role in a weird role madness game? TW planning his fake claiming

"We're not lynching me today" type shit like 5 times Oh hey in that same game he aggressively scumread a town who had his number and called votes on him gross and bussed the hell out of his teammate

Hilarious comment from meta discussion thread: "takes input well enough as town. walking noise machine as scum."

Okay my meta dive assessment of TW is that lots of fluffposting is NAI. Post count is NAI (he's racked up >300 as both alignments). Tends to be a bit more defensive/short tempered as scum, and contribute more sharp questions/observations as town (on top of fluff posts). I apologize for being unnecessarily rude to the duckling but I do not rescind my scumread (almost all non-scum-reads on TW are as a result of the claiming that he has clearly done as scum).

However, in light of current events, I think we have room to spend D3 hunting for Scum #3 unless something happens w/ TW's claim that isn't just noise.

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:46 pm

Oh and I didn't see crumbing of PR in his TPR games (didn't look at Jungle because Skitter has already mentioned/analyzed it) while skimming his many hundreds of posts.

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:46 pm

(However, he got murdered night 1 at JK and didn't have a chance in one of them. Sorry I need to stop forgetting these notes.)

Nauci · Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:11 pm

In post 2569, skitter30 wrote:
In post 2430, brassherald wrote:momrangal (6)~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11, Gustavo,Not_Mafia
i think bussing votes are something like

tw > irrelephant > nm = errant > bernie > gustavo

in that order

i don't think bv's lack of vote yesterday is really that problematic tbh

I'll agree here.

I missed his explanation post at the time but it seems plausible now.

Hmm you've given me new sources of paranoia on Keyser I guess, but I still lean town there. How do you feel about Irrelephant today? After reading his town game and skimming our scum game again, I think that while all of the individual posts he has made are within his scumrange, his overall progression of reads has been fairly town now that Mom has flipped, so I moved him into green.

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:36 am

In post 2590, Gustavo wrote:who has analyzed mom's posts? who is most likely scum from them? I want to do it myself but again no time.

I like keyser as scum because he wasn't on the lynch but asked for a claim. You ask for a claim when someone is at L-1 and intent is given, you don't ask at l-2. i don't really see him pushing hard for that lynch either. like he didn't want to bus which makes sense as they would lose day talk.

Siiiiiigh.

Not taking NM into account is dumb

Also I've seen nm be far less "useless" as town

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:38 am

In post 2592, Gustavo wrote:just off memory skitter and keyser but somebody said skitter was not mom's partner and I am not sure why that was said. I can't do this off memory anymore, I need to refresh my mind by reading

Didn't you just respond to my post about how Skitter had been trying to lynch mom with singular perseverance since page 18

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:40 am

In post 2576, Keyser Söze wrote:@skittles

Do you think scum-TW has given up today? (he’s decided for D3 to be about him, with the potential of it being 9 town vs 1 Mafia going into N3) Is he
that
confident that his scum partner is that well town read / hidden?

Is there ANYTHING from his D1/D2 play that backs up this trying-to-look-scummy-but-really-a-town-pr narrative?

In our stack the deck game, I Vigged scum N1. TW basically outed himself D2 while their 3rd was one of the more scumread slots in the game.

So I'm not sure if it means he feels confident about their 3rd?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:48 am

In post 2600, skitter30 wrote:
In post 2578, the worst wrote:I'll read thru that l8r if I'm in the mood. anyone able to tell me if any of it was directed @ me?
Yes, basically every single post of mine on the previous page was either directed at you or about you

I'm trying really hard to reach out to you here to figure this out and I'm kinda feeling like you're avoiding responding to what I have to say by hiding behind 'lol walls that I dont want to read', which is honestly not a response that I'm used to you having to me and to my posts

24 hours without elaborating on his claim (likely because he didn't find anything to help him make something plausible up?).

These delay tactics. Ugh.

I might have more on Irrelephant later today, but my read is mostly based on his relatively confident high number of town reads without "but I'm paranoid about X" type caveats. He'd be playing significantly against his wincon to do this when there are juicy targets like Keyser that people are trying to scumread, and there are more than one of these so it's not just covering for a partner.

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:13 am

Wait what

I'm "less engaged"?

Because I'm pretty sure I skimmed 6-8 TW games as scum or TPR yesterday and tl;dr'ed for y'all

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:30 am

It was a snippet of the bv-errant interactions

I'm not opposed to this BV investigation

But it's like nearly impossible to hold all of BV's posts in my head at once and determine my impression of him

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:34 am

Hey @BV can you explain in detail your scum read of Errant?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:05 am

Is it really a defense if I just think it's absurd to think anyone would bus a teammate so hard starting as early as page 18?

I mean it's not even personal at that point

If someone wants me to spend half an hour dragging up all of the times Skitter and I have reacted to stuff the same way I will but it seems like such a waste of time because it's not scum hunting. I'd rather be rereading bv/errant

PEdit: how am I pushing for a TW townflip when I said that I would wait for the night to see his alignment because presumably if he's a PR he'd be shot? Seems dumb for scum to try to reverse psychology us instead of take out 2 TPR when one scum is down. I announced that I'd be looking for other scum today.

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:07 am

In post 2642, Irrelephant11 wrote:

I just discovered that 2156 is NOt another votecount thingy, but instead full of words! Wowwwww hahaha and so much of it includes meeee this is
something

pedit: @skitter I think you're possible-scum this time just from my vca and how BV talks about you. If the worst and Not_Mafia are both town, I think BV is the next most likely scum, and you would be his msot likely partner. If enough things happen today to make me think that tw and NM are both town, I'll ISO you again and let you know more thoughts. For now, it was just a thing I noticed while reading BV. I don't scumread you in isolation right now

pedit2: I'm making pushes on you because you've played in real time the least out of anyone in the player list and because I can't *do* anything to sort NM or the worst right now. I'll obviously drop it if the worst is like "Guilty on NM", or even better, "Guilty on Irrelephant"

QQQQQ

This is what I get for spoilering my giant wall posts to make the game more readable

No one reads them at all

:bawl:

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:49 am

In post 2655, Errantparabola wrote:
In post 2622, Keyser Söze wrote:@EP - why do you think TW chose you? (It’d been easier to stir up a wagon/fake a guilty on me or Not Nafia).
He almost certainly didnt. I thought about it and i want to claim now because i'm basically a VT at this point. I neighborized worst.
I told him that he was obviously softing PR. I asked where his reads were and said that he was pushing nauci and skitter hard yesterday and setting them up as partners with mom while trying to push mom and that was suspicious to me

He implied heavily that he was an investigative and said he would be "looking" at BV. thinking about it now i dont think worst ever hard townread me so idk why he claimed, but it seemed like worst was pretty much gearing up to claim eventually with how hard he was hinting at it in thread

i asked him why he didn't investigate one of his scumreads.

He said its better to focus on the top of the lynchpool and justified that bv was a nullread who wasnt going to be nk'd.

i asked if he had a N1 result and he said that maybe i'd find out eventually.

I asked him, only semi-jokingly, to investigate me, and he refused.

I'm having a really hard time passing this post

Sorry but could you post explicitly the order of actions you know took place and when (d1, n1, etc.)?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:50 am

I'm mostly unclear on what you're saying tw claimed to you and what actions he claimed

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:53 am

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Neighborizer

They are explicitly any alignment, but frequently pro town

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:39 am

In post 2676, Errantparabola wrote:
In post 2665, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2658, Errantparabola wrote:cause i thought he was town d1 and we're friends and i like him
What was the stupid reason you had for the town read? Did you ever explain it?
I dont even remember but it was something to do with the replace in i think, I wasnt taking the game nearly as seriously as i did on D2 and D3 and thought it didnt really matter who i targeted

Okay:

N1: I neighborized worst
D2: The thread was made.
N2: The thread was unlocked.

Post order (we joked around a lot, those things are omitted. and posts are heavily paraphrased for obv reasons)

EP: I know youre a PR
EP: What are your reads, do you still scumread Nauci & Skitter
TW: Nauci & Skitter are probably partners with mom, i'm not surprised at the flip
TW: I'm probably going to be looking at BV tonight
EP: So you're a cop? why don't you investigate one of your scumreads
TW: It makes more sense to investigate at the top of the lynchpool <-- (basically claiming cop or something simiilar??)
TW: BV is a nullread and most likely wont be night killed
EP: I still dont think it makes sense not to investigate a scumread
TW: I'd always choose someone like this regardless of who i scumread
EP: did you have a result on N1
TW: maybe you'll find out eventually
EP: Why not investigate me instead of BV
TW: no thanks

Well that's an incredibly gross sequence of interactions from TW if he were a cop (or most other investigative roles)

But I'll wait to hear wtf happened with BV I guess

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:54 am

In post 2674, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2479, the worst wrote:thank you. I kept trying to discreetly tell people that keeping me alive was good. >:/

for the record EP plays a part in why I had such a lovely night.
Sounds like TW got a guilty, and EP didn’t roleblock/NK TW, knowing that’d he’d target (BV?).

@the worst?

Wat

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:05 am

In post 2687, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2671, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2669, Keyser Söze wrote:Neigbourizer.. is that usually town aligned in these type of games on mafiascum?
I’ll check later.
About 25% of the time it’s scum.

Thanks!

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:18 am

In post 2690, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2685, Nauci wrote:
In post 2674, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2479, the worst wrote:thank you. I kept trying to discreetly tell people that keeping me alive was good. >:/

for the record EP plays a part in why I had such a lovely night.
Sounds like TW got a guilty, and EP didn’t roleblock/NK TW, knowing that’d he’d target (BV?).

@the worst?
Wat
Let’s wait to hear from TW

How about you explain what you even meant here though

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:10 pm

Why would scum errant so sure of TW being a PR recruit instead of NK him, and request for TW investigate him?

TW is what Errant claims happened in the neighborhood true?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:40 pm

I think scumEP+townTW is not possible

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:36 pm

In post 2717, Bernie Sanders wrote:maybe EP and TW just claimed their scum pt as a neighbourhood in the ultimate gambit strat

I mean that would be hilariously suicidal

theoretically with at least 1 mafia PR (I mean, encryptor is a pretty powerful PR for 13 player, right?), there's at least 1 TPR who could CC if BOTH of them claim to be TPR

because there's no way there are 4 TPR in a 13p normal I think? I would glare at Brass forever if there were

which I suppose means

no matter what TW's role claim is, if someone CC's TPR at all, then *at least* TW is scum, if not both

and if TW is scum but Errant is town, then TW is probably doing this in hopes that the remaining TPR CC's so scum can NK them even if TW gets lynched tomorrow worst case because there was almost no chance that TW would make it through D4 in any case because half the town is happy to lynch him today (and yesterday), which would make this a great play for Scum Worst

I'm having trouble with how his actions make sense as a TPR however, especially if he and Errant round out the TPR cast for this game.

tl;dr

If there's another town PR in this game do not claim today even as a CC unless you're -1; there's no reason to when at worst, the worst will be lynched tomorrow for lying

(except in the seemingly extremely unlikely scenario of a scum Errant thinking TW is a Town PR and neighborizing him for crazy 11th dimensional chess town credit instead of killing a 2nd TPR on N3)

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:42 pm

I haven't had time to really get into it but someone mentioned earlier that I looked like I was too eager to sheep irrelephant about scumreading BV or something

You'll notice that I've been paranoid and unable to read BV for most of the game because I don't think his analysis has been super AI, and that I've been wanting to case him the whole time, so when someone started talking about it, I was excited about it.

Especially because that someone is a player that I am now townreading (another thing that I will explain later when I have more moments to write a stupid wall)

For now we're all waiting for TW to stop fucking with us, ya?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:56 pm

A whole lot of shit this game is contingent on TW revealing shit.

-What were your results N1 and N2?
-Why did you choose those targets?
-Why did you say you were probably the NK target for N1 on D2?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:58 pm

In post 2721, Bernie Sanders wrote:Would never ordinarily recommend cutting someone doing what TW is this game this much slack but there is a fairly big power shortage here that makes me somewhat wary. doctor wasn't even full but oddnight

Also logically TW should know on some level the risk associated with softing if he is scum but doing it when mom the encryptor was the clear other lynch to him would be just kind of dumb I think (though maybe he's just bad at scum)

neighbouriser is almost negligible in any power sense if town and one that gives neighbourhoods that delayed and nightonly feels like it sucks even compared to neighbourisers im used to
if EP felt scummier here I'd completely ignore the claim altogether WRT pushing or lynching him BTW but he doesn't really stick out besides being kind of unengaged (although maybe that's why it's hard to tell)

Are you saying either there's a 3rd TPR with all of the power or that a 4th is plausible?

I mean if the other 2 mafia are only goons, then 3 seems plausible.

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:59 pm

In post 2724, Bernie Sanders wrote:btw I remembered from one of the times reading mom iso but
mom-invisibility thing on the surface might seem anti-tell on most surface level but is pretty common to how noobscum and sometimes badscum distance
rvs partnervote is almost infamous as is votepark on partner but dont really push him and sleep off most of other game happenings

So you disagree with my speculation about scumErrant+townTW?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:18 pm

In post 2758, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2501, the worst wrote:
In post 2500, Keyser Söze wrote:Are you waiting for reactions/players to post TW?
yes, transparently
Whose reaction are you waiting for? Which player are you waiting to post? Are you waiting for me to counter claim?

You?

Or someone?

Huh?

Nauci · Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:37 pm

In post 2757, skitter30 wrote:actually skimming through nauci's iso again idk if she makes much sense with mom; she'd have to have bussed her nearly as long as i was pushing her

I spent so much of day 1 pushing gamma and got cold feet when his wagon looked weird and he was being active

But momrangal was in my scum pile the whole day

Day 1 I spent a ton of time telling people that all the things Irrelephant was being town read for were in his scum range and he shouldn't get credit for them, but Shoshin was right: they weren't out of his townrange.

But the point of them was that you can't read Irrelephant by effort, or thoughtful sounding questions, or seemingly complex tryhard analysis. You have to read him by his progression: is there a narrative of actions that benefits scum by getting the more active/threatening players lynched? Is he fighting back on clearing those players as town? Or giving some players less attention than others, or using a lot of "this feels weird" language? I think that as the game has progressed his reads have felt more like frustrated town trying to solve the game instead of scum manipulating game state and sow doubt, and like the posts are less immaculately prepared than in our scum game and more like his posts in the town one (taking into account his intentional spelling errors as scum to look more casual).

My biggest thing is that I know he loves scumchat as much as I do and even if he was scum with TW, he would have voted there instead of to take out scum day chat when both were very viable wagons short of TW being some sort of very broken scum role.

It's not the hardest town read but it's a town read. I put it on par with my Keyser read.

I think Gus is letting the soft clear on him make him complacent :<

And the longer TW delays like that the more I'm convinced he's full of shit because this feels like a classic TW pulling shenanigans when his back is up against the wall, or scum trying to bait a town CC. Ugh.

Errant, do you read TW as town for anything other than the breadloafing?

PEdit: BV why on Earth would Momrangal think TW is a PR struggling enough to divert the wagon off of him,

and then shoot at Gustavo

? Unless you have an explanation for why the lack of NK had nothing to do with the doctor and is because of something TW is capable of when he has a supposedly investigative role...

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:11 pm

In post 2768, the worst wrote:DID YOU SAY BREAD?!

this may come as a shock to you Nauci but I like pts as well

Can confirm this; picked up daychat in stack the deck

But don't think it's as major as Irrelephant =P

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:21 pm

@brassherald: I'm v/la through Monday because my thermometer says 103.2

Sorry guys thought I could still catch up but the brain fog is overwhelming. At least my cat likes me when I'm warm

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:31 pm

Brief skim I don't know if I agree with Irrelephant but I like the push and didn't like bvs responses

VOTE: bv

Sorry I'll be back to more analysis when o can think straight

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:41 pm

UNVOTE:

Many thoughts

I wish I was in a better place to think and explain them

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:41 pm

Bv what's your read on TW

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:01 pm

In post 2837, skitter30 wrote:
In post 2835, Bernie Sanders wrote:Out the result duck

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:40 pm

The really really weird thing is that I can't rule out tw/bv both being scum lol

But math's posting made me feel like he was definitely not vt, but not sure if scum or pr

1sbp wouldn't make sense to play like that except in the case of math, who would do it to try to draw the NK attempt

Haven't read most posts except the claims and whatever and thus far I'm confused about the game setup

Wait BS what

Man I'm so lost

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:40 pm

It feels like it's been unintentional RCOC

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:44 pm

In post 2887, the worst wrote:inb4 Nauci fakeclaims voyeur who saw an investigative on me

Don't you drag me into this horseshit

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:45 pm

In post 2894, skitter30 wrote:i'm kinda inclined to believe bernie here given that he gets auto-lynched on a tw townflip; and he had enough towncred to like ... not need to do that

Currently feeling bv-tw for scum tbh

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:46 pm

In post 2895, Bernie Sanders wrote:
@Mod
have there been any mod errors?

I doubt brass would fuck it up that badly

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:16 pm

We have a lynch all liars pool of tw, bv, bs, and errant at the moment, right

I need all 4 to state exactly what has happened thus far day1/n1/d2/n2 thanks

Oh and odd night doctor protected Gus n1

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:17 pm

In post 2943, skitter30 wrote:Is there a reason why tw cant be the rb again

Rb results in "no result" for tracker I think

Assuming you believe BS

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:21 pm

After d2 I'm very slightly willing to sheep Bernie here

I'mma go make the boyfriend take care of me and check back if the mess hasn't been sorted in a few days of fever sleeping thanks

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:26 pm

VOTE: the worst

Skitter if tw is scum do you think I might still be scum

Because I take that as a compliment on the scum range I supposedly have

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:28 pm

In post 2960, Bernie Sanders wrote:TW why pick BV

He basically said so d2 when he demanded bv get copped

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:31 pm

I don't think scum tw rules out scum bv, Skitter

In fact a bv flip might be at least as informative on the off chance tw is telling the truth hmmmm

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:36 pm

I think bv > tw lynch order is game theory better at the moment? Because tw flip doesn't clear bv but I think bv flip might clear to and both informative on BS

But I think we have some disagreement on whether or not bv and tw can be scum together so I'll hold off until I get a better understanding of that

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:38 pm

How many investigative roles does town usually get? Do tracker and gunsmith both count as investigative?

I thought it was at max 1 so tw I'm not sure what your read of BS is if you were somehow telling the truth

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:59 pm

In post 2991, skitter30 wrote:@brass: I dont know if this was said anywhere but is it known if scum can kill and use a role/ability on the same night?

This is usually the case

Also, scum having a JOAT isn't out of the question

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:06 pm

I have had a gut feeling most of d3 that TW is scum JOAT or role cop or something

Scum!TW would totally take a shot at MathDino after d1 because quiet Math super felt like a PR (which would make sense for Math to do: try to sound like a PR to draw scum's wasted shot, and see what the reactions were)

And when it didn't work, would RC the slot instead because the doctor protected Gustavo so it must have had special sauce, and try to frame him instead

But if TW is town, the whole BV NEEDS TO BE COPPED thing makes more sense (unless he's traitor)

Either way, I don't really give BS points for the push on Mom day 2 because it felt nearly inevitable from the start, so I can imagine most scum would be willing to hard bus there. He gets points for other things he has done, but not that.

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:27 pm

BS who did you target n1

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:29 pm

In post 2996, Irrelephant11 wrote:Wait before we lynch anyone are there any realistic scum PRs that could be messing with our preconceptions here? Like I know gunnerizer isn’t a thing but,

?

Redirection roles like redirector/lightning rod/bus driver/etc. are explicitly non-normal

The weirdest thing we could have had was loyal/disloyal modifiers unless Brass is a huge liar about "as close to normal as possible" or whatever he said

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:49 pm

Things I'm ruling out:

BV

/

BS

/

TW

(there probably aren't 4 scum)

BV

/

BS

/

TW

(they wouldn't seppuku like this)

BV

/

BS

/

TW

(someone somewhere is lying)

Unlikely:

BV

/

BS

/

TW

(BS wouldn't seppuku unless 3rd scum was unbelievably safe like Gustavo or something which seems unlikely and even then whyyyyyy)

BV

/

BS

/

TW

(TW gambiting fake claimingas VT whyyyyyyy?)

Possible:

BV

/

BS

/

TW

(BS trying to bus TW for maximum credit here because it's so unbelievable he'd bus both partners?)

BV

/

BS

/

TW

BV

/

BS

/

TW

(leaning towards this)

Ugh why did you guys have to make it exciting when I tried to sleep

BS, are you making the setup spec remarks based on experience or is there a resource we could all read for help deciphering this?

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:57 pm

In post 3001, the worst wrote:
In post 3000, Nauci wrote:BV/BS/TW (TW gambiting fake claimingas VT whyyyyyyy?)
this is actually my read rn but I think bernie is fakeclaiming

y tho

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:01 pm

In post 2995, Bernie Sanders wrote:VOTE: blackvoid

this might sound insane, but tracker alone isnt nearly enough invest power especially if there's either a roleblocker or joat for scum as well
ordinarily I wouldn't setup spec at this point but I don't really think there's a big unclaimed town investigative here but balance wise there really really should be

u fockin' wot m8

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:51 pm

In post 3007, Bernie Sanders wrote:but even that would require scum have a redirect of some form and probably not the case in a vaccuum

Who did you try to target n1

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:18 pm

In post 3010, Errantparabola wrote:Nauci what's your justification for BS/TW being possible

I'm not sure if I see a reason to totally rule it out I guess?

It might belong in unlikely, but I don't know if there's a logical reason to rule it out

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:48 pm

In post 3006, Bernie Sanders wrote:worst case scenario is duck flips town but then that still confirms BVscum at least

Woke up out of fever sleep because my brain was yelling WHY IS BS SAYING TW MIGHT BE TOWN IF HE LIED

UNVOTE:

Ok gn

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:51 pm

TIL BV was scumreading/pushing me

I must have skipped those posts?

Nauci · Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:55 pm

Tw still hasn't answered why he said he was probably the nk for n1

I need BS to explain the paranoia though

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:46 am

Oh darn there goes my crazy theory. But also, YAY I'M ALIVE WOOOOOOO.

I wrote this yesterday and stayed up way past my bed time to post it at start of today and now I'm going the fuck to bed after posting my vote record kthxbai.

Game critical info bolded.

Rest you'll want to read too though.

Spoiler: I had the craziest theory:

Anyhoo...

If TW's partner is clever and shot me then I'm pasting this into the dead thread, hoping that our hero Bernie Sanders saves the democratic republic. Otherwise...

I'm the formerly unclaimed town investigative role (

Town Neapolitan

, to be specific)

who has been dying to spew but managed to keep it mostly in my pants thus far. I'm pretty sure I'm pasting into the dead thread though, because my 360 on Irrelephant D3, focus on TW's crumbing, and mostly inexplicable paranoia about BV beginning freshly on day 2, have made it very obvious to scum that I know things.

My president is Taft, who was Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States after being POTUS. So I get to determine vanilla/not vanilla, which is kinda weaksauce for a chief SCOTUS Justice, but meh.

Night 1:

MathDino (BlackVoid)

-

Not Vanilla Town

Night 2:

Irrelephant

-

Vanilla Town

Night 3:

Keyser Soze

-

Vanilla Town

MathDino because he was weirdly quiet, so I thought he was either dropping PR tells or scummy as hell. I prayed and prayed for him to be a VT but alas, Not VT. Since I didn't want to unintentionally out a Town PR, I just pressed it but not super hard. BV's reactions weren't super scummy compared to mom/tw so I let it go for the time being to see if he'd do anything PR-like. He didn't.

BV is right though that my "BV's analysis hasn't been AI" wasn't genuine. That was largely because I got a Not VT check. BV your words were vvv good during your catchup and I otherwise would very well have fallen for it! But pressured you anyway because we must flip all the rocks.

Then I read that Neapolitan should really be green checking VTs and avoiding potential PRs. Oops.

Irrelephant because A: he was not well sorted yet, B: he's a very strong player who can contribute a ton if green checked, and C: even though I was town reading him, he's so good of a scum player I had to be sure.

Keyser Soze because he's also confusing the shit out of half of the game but I thought I'd get a VT clear here, and that he'd also be a very smart player with a green check. I don't have analysis here because I'm typing this up before I got my N3 result.

Oh and I crumbed it a bunch of times (and every subsequent VC), but no one had a chance of noticing the microscopic crumbs I threw in my vote count walls. I probably edited what font size and color I used there 30 times, paranoid I'd make it too obvious and get noticed before I wanted it noticed. #8686868 is too light! #111111 might be too dark, 105% font size is too obvious, 102 is to subtle!

The last scum is probably BV because

:

He claimed 1-shot BP. In the context of this game, that's the least falsifiable claim: we can't be sure who scum shot at N1, and we can't ask him for results on anything. Funny that of all the different possibilities, he claimed one of the very few things that aren't falsifiable directly, except by process of elimination on how many scum there are.
My one potential read of the slot being a town 1SBP was if MathDino was baiting a shot to waste a scum NK, but none of the "Math got shot at N1" perspective seemed to have leaked into BV's posts if you reread his catch up. No sign of that perspective until 2821. This should have been a pervasive piece of information through which to view the game,
and conflicted with the hard town read of Gustavo
.
After all that talk about being so careful about laying down his vote, he "accidentally" hammers TW 7 minutes after Keyser laid down his vote.
TW and BV both delay for a long time before addressing the claims/pressure. TW was very clearly doing it to fish for reactions to "investigative role" and result on BV (or weird interaction with EP) to figure out the available claimspace. BV gave him way more potential credibility than made sense for his read of the worst/the game state/the English language.
If he's scum, then this was scum theater to tell TW that he thinks there's a Neapolitan in the game. I suspected him for very little explained reason but didn't dunk him, so it shouldn't have been hard to figure out (I am terrible at playing TPR).
Oh and I guess this is where he described basically exactly what he did to TW, without scum day chat.
Okay, this post and maybe even this one looks even more strange post TW/Mom flips (now that scum don't have daychat while trying to coordinate a fake claim). And of course, TW would have told his partner about the neighborhood w/ EP on N2...
He pushes me as a scum read when he thinks TW is scum. This is suuuuuuch a reach. Not only have I pushed/pressured TW since the beginning of d2 and skimmed like 70% of TW's games to case the hell out of him him and pinned his scum play down since like post 666.
He scum reads me for not explaining my town reads on Irrelephant/Skitter when he has basically done the same level of explanation for the same town reads, after town reading me for most of the day, with an aggressiveness that felt like panic about having their gambit ruined. Some of it was predicated on me-irrelephant being scum together, but doubled down on scum reading me despite thinking TW was definitely scum.
As mentioned in my case, TW hard bussed a teammate one of his games (and won for it, IIRC). Especially if they thought they'd get the last TPR for this gambit.
His strongest scum reads for most of the previous days were basically the consensus ones (momrangal and tw, who already bussed each other). His strongest town reads (skitter, shoshin, bernie, gus) were consensus ones too. Starts off content posting[ Day 3 by throwing shade onto the rest. At some point he hard swings into only wanting me/irrelephant dead D3, but swings back onto TW without addressing this conflict.
I found it funny he said I'm capable of my full town range as scum (which I haven't managed to accomplish yet). BV is very capable of that feat.
You know full well that not using your vote as a scumhunting tool is anti-town. There's no town reason to not put it on TW if you're torn between the two when he wasn't close to risk of lolhammer.
Defending N_M despite his low activity is actively better for scum.
I would have expected Town!Math to normally interact with Anything!The Worst quite a bit, even if it's banter.

If I got a Not Vanilla on Keyser, then I guess we gladiator the two of them. If I was roleblocked, still lean town on Keyser. Otherwise, I'm confident that Irrelephant/Keyser/Me/BS are conftown, Skitter is super town lean, Gustavo is very likely town but it's slightly predicated on BV being scum, and we lynch NM or Errant if BV pops town somehow. If I'm wrong about BV, well, so long and thanks for all the fish but at least you have 2 smart conftown on your side.

VOTE: BlackVoid

P.S. I swear I keep providing reasons I do stuff and getting dismissed as not providing them just because people don't necessarily see it my way. Am I just expected to do this kind of wall post for every opinion I have or something? I have like, a life to get on with, you know.

I spent the so much of the game (esp. d1) endeavoring to transparently comment on all of the times I grokked Skitter's reactions/thoughts specifically as the explanation for my town read. Understanding perspectives is key to my twon reads and agreeing with them is not. And I was very explicit that my D1 case was to prevent people from town reading Irrelephant for actions within his scum range, while saying which metrics I think irrelephant CAN be town read on, which I later DO townread him for.

The amount of effort I've put into this game is probably more than the rest of my games combined at this point, and I've basically ruined my ability to play scum. The shit I do for y'all!

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:47 am

Okay I have hella anxiety about whether that was a dumb decision or not but it's too late now!

P.S. I'm kinda bummed out my crazy theory wasn't true. Oh wells.

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:55 am

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 1

Spoiler:

Vote Record By Day 1

Spoiler:

__

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 2

Spoiler:

Vote Record By Day 2

Spoiler:

__

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 3

Spoiler:

Vote Record By Day 3

Spoiler:

__

Configuring this in a google sheet was the most cathartic and miserable thing I have ever not needed to do

Spoiler: wat m i doin wid my lyf

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:32 am

omg how did it copy the wrong color code

BERNIE'S NOT SCUM

sorry for the previous wall of inaccurate shit (and 1 dumb meme)

UNOFFICIAL Vote Count Day 1

Gamma Emerald

(7) -

MathDino/BlackVoid #734

,

Shoshin #1162

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #1199

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #1472

,

Irrelephant11 #1484

,

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #1485

,

Bernie Sanders #1620

Momrangal

(3) -

skitter30 #1070

,

Nauci #1468

,

Keyser Soze #1573

Bernie Sanders

(1) -

Momrangal #1270

Shoshin

(1) -

Gamma Emerald #1503

UNVOTE/Not Voting (1) -

northsidegal/Errantparabola #1193

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 1

Spoiler:

Vote Record By Day 1

Spoiler:

___

UNOFFICIAL Vote Count Day 1

Momrangal

(7) -

Bernie Sanders #1893

,

skitter30 #1947

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola #1953

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #2073

,

Irrelephant11 #2368

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #2415

,

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #2426

GeminiTwin12/the worst

(2) -

Keyser Soze #2109

,

Nauci #2175

Keyser Soze

(1) -

Shoshin #1928

UNVOTE/Not Voting (1) -

MathDino/BlackVoid #1624

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 2

Spoiler:

Vote Record By Day 2

Spoiler:

___

UNOFFICIAL Vote Count Day 1

GeminiTwin12/the worst

(6) -

stungun0404/Gustavo #2790

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola #2926

,

Nauci #2959

,

Bernie Sanders #3005

,

Keyser Soze #3012

,

MathDino/BlackVoid #3013

MathDino/BlackVoid

(3) -

Irrelephant11 #2773

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #2865

,

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #2938

Irrelephant11

(1) -

skitter30 #2753

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record Day 3

Spoiler:

Vote Record By Day 3

Spoiler:

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:58 am

In post 3033, Gustavo wrote:Scum can’t win so I’m fine with a bv vote

And here I was hoping people would actually read/like my case! Or at least my glorious tribute to MathDino meme

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:08 am

In post 3037, BlackVoid wrote:Can people stop being dumb and voting someone who should be essentially clear after yesterday?

Okay, so Irrelephant and Keyser are basically confirmed town regardless of Nauci's alignment because there's only one scum left.

There are two people you should never be lynching - me and skitter. Skitter is obviously town. My interactions with TheWorst, my play in general and my meta pretty much all clear me. I need to go to work early today but when I come back, I'll delineate exactly why. Removing myself from the POE pool pretty much ensures town win.

Scum are between {Nauci, Gustavo, Not_Mafia, errantparabola}. I kind of like this new development because I'm townreading errant and Gustavo. So, this pretty much leaves Nauci and Not_Mafia as the only potentially likely scum.

Initial instinct is that Nauci probably wouldn't fake-claim Neapolitan at this point. I'm not sure how much to believe this so I'll look through her posts again. But I feel pretty sure Not_Mafia has to be the final scum.

I think you should engage with my list of 15 Reasons Why You Are Scum for fun and games

How does this "essentially clear" mechanic work, eh? By the way, this post is much, MUCH funnier in context.

Why did I put this behind a spoiler originally? Math I hope you're reading this thread. This one's for you. And insomnia.

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:09 am

In post 3037, BlackVoid wrote:Can people stop being dumb and voting someone who should be essentially clear after yesterday?

Okay, so Irrelephant and Keyser are basically confirmed town regardless of Nauci's alignment because there's only one scum left.

There are two people you should never be lynching - me and skitter. Skitter is obviously town. My interactions with TheWorst, my play in general and my meta pretty much all clear me. I need to go to work early today but when I come back, I'll delineate exactly why. Removing myself from the POE pool pretty much ensures town win.

Scum are between {Nauci, Gustavo, Not_Mafia, errantparabola}. I kind of like this new development because I'm townreading errant and Gustavo. So, this pretty much leaves Nauci and Not_Mafia as the only potentially likely scum.

Initial instinct is that Nauci probably wouldn't fake-claim Neapolitan at this point. I'm not sure how much to believe this so I'll look through her posts again. But I feel pretty sure Not_Mafia has to be the final scum.

I'd like to append this post as a 16th reason why BV is scum

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:22 am

Wasn't NM the only one you were townreading out of nm/me/irrelephant/keyser/errant yesterday?

Oh that's right 4 of those have been basically ruled out

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:30 am

In post 3041, BlackVoid wrote:I'm going to engage with your multiple reasons after I come back from work tonight. I don't have time to write a super long wall right now. TheWorst knew he was likely going down and he needed to take out a threatening townie who wasn't being as widely townread as he should be before he went down to put scum in a better place. Guiltying a partner at that point is essentially throwing the game. He was never going to survive by himself. But delaying his lynch for a day to set his partner up is much better scenario for scum.

I didn't think my slot would have been shot N1 based on play because all my pred did was rap. But later I saw him claiming he wanted to lay low and figured he might have been because scum thought he was a PR. Occam's razor, more likely my slot was shot because they thought he was a PR than that Gustavo's slot was shot.

I think Not_Mafia is more likely scum than you at this point. I think my interpretation of his posts was wrong. That's probably where we should be lynching today.

If you're 1SBP then do you still clear Gus?

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:44 am

UNVOTE:

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:48 am

Scum NM is plausible, yeah, but soooomebody read my post <3

If we lose this game Skitter is probably the most skilled scum of all time or something

(I mostly did the vote stuff for myself so I can have an easier time reading the game and practice some software design stuff but shared it here because it might be useful to see all vote history at a glance. I'll likely be using a simplified and modified form to moderate games, but I'm sure as hell not trying this hard again regardless of alignment)

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:50 am

Scum EP isn't ruled out because TW flipped red, btw. Check there as well if I'm wrong.

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:19 am

I mean

We're literally talking about the line of conftown vs not conftown here, not the scummy/not scummy.

Nauci · Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:02 pm

Oops I somehow missed that he started NM n1. That's big

I think the only "no result" ones would be roleblocker or jailer? Ninja would give "no visit"

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:58 am

In post 3062, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 3060, Nauci wrote:Oops I somehow missed that he started NM n1. That's big

I think the only "no result" ones would be roleblocker or jailer? Ninja would give "no visit"
So we’re dealing with a Mafia ninja then..?

I did wonder why Mafia didn’t just roleblock BS (create some WIFOM for that slot, you weren’t even 100% sold on the town tracker claim) and NK Skitters, another mass town read player / possible TPR?

?

He specifically said that on night 1 he tried to track NM and got "no result." Night 2 he tracked TW and got "no visit."

Indicating there's a roleblocker or he was jailed (and I'm guessing there's no jailer).

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:08 am

In post 3064, Keyser Söze wrote:Is Nauci in theory t/cleared here?

I.e
- scum-Nauci wouldn’t t/clear two townies
- scum-Nauci wouldn’t dare fakeclaim the investigative TPR we’ve been expecting in the setup?
- scum-Nauci wouldn’t expect town to keep her in the game if she survives subsequent night phases?

-I don't expect to be alive tomorrow; that would just be silly
-do you think I've been crumbing BV in my vote counts since there middle of day 2 and Irrelephant+bv day 3 because.....?
-seriously if you think there's even a slight possibility I'm lying here I'm going to ragecry buckets and never come back

Irrelephant/Keyser/I are conftown (ffs if bv isn't scum I'll be dead tomorrow)
Skitter is Towny af
Errant is almost definitely town, or deserves a daytime Emmy at the least
Gustavo is almost definitely town, or deserves a night time Emmy for outstanding Gambitting

We have 3 tries and a pool of 2 potential scum

Don't fuck this up

Someone read my post and interact with it ffs

I'm never putting this much effort in a game again

Anyone who said I don't explain my reads but didn't read my very large posts should tell me so I can

be salty at you forever

learn which parts of my efforts were worth the repetitive stress injuries kthxbai

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:10 am

In post 3067, Keyser Söze wrote:Do you wanna see something funny? Remember Invisibility...? Before she replaced out she nailed two of the three scum...

Invisibility's (Not_Mafia slot) D1 posts on
Momrangal
and
GeminiTwin12
before replacing out:

"
VOTE: Momrangal

your name makes me feel unpleasant"

"i'm feeling most nervous about this

VOTE: GeminiTwin12

3/4 of her posts are rehashes/easy to make
i would like to see more from her"

"i guess i can see mom's reason for suspicion but like it still isn't a good read, especially after now because mom should have more thoughts than just me seeming tryhardy"

"i want to scumread mom but it feels wrong to scumread mom right now"

The two players she expressed the most suspicion on were the momrangel and the worst slots. Invisibility also expressed town reads on: Shoshin, stungun, Keyser, skitter...

Now was this town-Invisibility having an excellent game, solving the game in under 10 posts...?
Or was this scum-Invisibility making an uncomfortable/awkward/timid start to the game, and throwing shade/suspicion on her two scum teammates? Momrangal's early D1 infatuation/tunnel of the invisibility slot makes this series of interactions that even more so suspicious

Well bussing is still a fad here and it was not one of nm's obvtown games by a very long shot

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:11 am

Invis's pronoun is listed as he btw

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:14 am

In post 3087, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 3079, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3077, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 3076, Not_Mafia wrote:I'm town let's lynch someone else
Who?
Irrelephant maybe

Someone put a vote on NM so I can do the lolhammer

Actually though the reason I want to lynch BV before NM is because if BV flips bulletproof, Gustavo is no longer mechanically mostly-cleared. Lynching BV and being wrong is more helpful/informative than lynching NM and being wrong.

I also want to add to the case against BV that he was really certain that EITHER Mom OR the worst was scum, and spent a while deciding which one D2. This could be coming from the third partner trying to clear the better-playing scum by lynching the worst (pun intended).

We have 3 nights worth of conftown but yes I agree with this

However it's not a case for why bv is scum lol

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:17 am

Catch up reading makes me regret outing today instead of tomorrow

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:19 am

In post 3115, Irrelephant11 wrote:I mean, if Nauci is scum (which is really just not the case, aside from my strong townread on her this would be an incredibly bizarre long-game play for scum that makes it harder for her to win), that still would clear me and Keyser because there's only one scum left.

pedit: pretty sure NM's gonna be stubborn and stick with Gustavo, so I think we can just decide who to lynch.

I'm thinking BV > NM > Gustavo

I assume nightkills would be Nauci > Me/Keyser > Town loss

pedit2: I'm gonna start by looking at mom/tw/gustavo interactions

Gotta sort between Gus and errant if bv flips green, basically

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:21 am

In post 3125, Gustavo wrote:
In post 3124, Irrelephant11 wrote:Mechanically, that could no longer be true. If he flips 1sbp, he becomes ~equally likely to have been the N1 target, except by virtue of flipping green he'd be
more
likely in retrospect than you to have been the target.
Him flipping green doesn’t make him more likely the target though. Like why would scum shoot that slot?

Because Mathdino is so good at nailing the worst to the wall he did it here as a ghost from a past game

Tw definitely shoots math if math was town

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:24 am

@brass

>mwnn’s alt

Wat

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:30 am

In post 3135, Irrelephant11 wrote:Also sorry for scumreading you for so long Keyser, in retrospect it was ~75% playstyle, and hopefully it won't happen again!

In post 3139, Keyser Söze wrote:Yeah the way I express myself sometimes isn’t clear or helpful but once you figure out I’m town I become obvious town.

Re: Errant, since the neighborizor claim (which is 75% town ) I’ve admittedly taken my eye off him, but warmed up to him before then. Will re-read his posts next in connection with the two lynches on scum.

Stun's replacing wish was for y'all to tr Keyser, who seemed to have as much a town perspective as Skitter

I'm clearing Gus based on that

Ffs no one end the damn day unless Skitter and bv have responded in full

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:37 am

In post 3165, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 1698, Irrelephant11 wrote:So my head says scum are Not_Mafia, Mom, and the worst, but my heart says it's Gustavo, Nauci, and mathdino.
nice

So we've learned to not follow your heart

(Don't tell Mrs Irrelephant I said that)

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:38 am

In post 3166, skitter30 wrote:ok i'm basically caught up

i think i want

nm >> bv = gus >> ep >> nauci

where i'm assuming me/irrelephant, keyser are town

keyser/irrelephant are only not necessarily town if nauci is town fake-claiming here, which would just be like idiotic; if she's scum and lying they're still town; also the setup seems to indicate she's telling the truth; and either way she's going to get resolved by dying before lylo presumably and on the off chance she doesn't we can figure it out then

townread ep

and i townread bv + gus too but less than everyone else

so i think nm is my preferred lynch today

Skitter you're breaking my spirit

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:39 am

In post 3171, skitter30 wrote:
In post 3163, BlackVoid wrote:Also, N_M just gave up so why haven't we ended the game?
like this is pinging me - i feel like you're urging people towards a lynch which is ..... not like you at all

Extremely this

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:43 am

In post 3181, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 3178, skitter30 wrote:bv i'm really just getting the vibe that you want to push this lynch through?
Yeah, I want to push N_M through. Maybe I'm not playing completely optimally by not going through an extensive analysis of clearing Gustavo before I do it. I think it's ridiculous people are actually voting me over him and I'd hate to give this scumteam a free mislynch on me even if they wind up losing.

I haven't read the game closely enough to see what the context is. But N_M's posts here just gave me the impression that he knows he's caught and the game is done so might as well get lynched and move onto the next one.

Is there anyone I should be seriously considering outside of N_M?

After all that effort for 2 days and talking up your "don't vote until sure" act, you're going to throw out this anti town garbage?

We have 3 chances to nail scum yet your first priority seems to be keeping you alive with even vanity pleas like this

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:51 am

Bv the 1sbp perspective would have involved a "why would scum shoot at Gustavo OR me" data point, which *has not at all happened* and I reread your catch ups.

It's a far bigger issue than not crumbing it.

Also as 1sbp you extremely want to be NKed and there's no way you don't know that

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:59 am

In post 3221, skitter30 wrote:hi i'm a she

i feel like there's enough lynches left that we're basically guaranteed to get to 4way, and depending on how exactly the flips go and if i'm alive i probably get hammer. i can't project exactly what i'll do there because it'll depend on future flips but this prob won't be the worst xylo i've been in

(aside: i'm eternally surprised that i make it anywhere near xylo)

basically my point is that the order doesn't matter *too* much since there's enough cleared slots that we can basically lynch through the unclears and win, although it would be nice to win today, so i'm going to try for that

bv i'm going to read your response but i need to do stuff irl now, but i'll be back later this afternoon at some point

Lol you can ask poor brass how many times I've spammed him with livejournaling about how I was terrified of being NKed

But since day 2 there's been a never ending supply of PRs or conftown to NK

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:01 am

In post 3231, Gustavo wrote:
In post 3230, Nauci wrote:Because Mathdino is so good at nailing the worst to the wall he did it here as a ghost from a past game

Tw definitely shoots math if math was town
Until I see evidence from multiple past games, you can’t really use that as an argument.

2 of just the games I linked on TW in my case had Math build his wagon from scratch. Don't remember if there are more.

They work together well as town so math is just really good at sorting tw

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:02 am

In post 3242, BlackVoid wrote:There's literally no chance of town losing as long as I don't get lynched. I know theoretically skitter isn't clear but I've played enough with her to know that her flipping scum is not a possibility.

It seems you are pissed and you're omgus'ing because I pushed you this game. Maybe don't be intentionally scummy next time you draw a PR if that annoys you so much. I've been fairly dead on this game outside of Irrelephant and I was even backing off of Irrelephant before your results.

This is extremely not the case and I am pretty pissed off at this post

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:04 am

Okay fully caught up

NM > BV > who knows what happens from here onwards

Pretty satisfied with BV's responses to my case so leaning towards NM

Are we ready for a hammer

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:06 am

BV/Gus you'll see that a lot of the actions in this game make more sense if you accept that several of us are in the Church of MathDino because as town he's basically a force of nature and we respect his capabilities a lot.

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:12 am

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:12 am

Rosebud

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:14 am

I mean you don't have to agree with the perspective to take it in as a data point

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:16 am

Our

actions make sense in the context of

our

beliefs.

Skitter/tw/myself all respect Mathdino and he's earned it several times over

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:19 am

In TW's meet a scummer thread, he mentioned one of Math's many clutch game saves from the brink of destruction as one of his favorite moments on here, so it's safe to say I think he's in the church

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:46 am

In post 3261, BlackVoid wrote:Idk, I played with him once and followed some of his games and I thought he was pretty average. But if TW really thought he was amazing, he might have just wanted to shoot him. *shrug*

I suppose it also makes sense that your TW case was basically you quoting Mathdino. I never felt like sheeping someone else is a good way to play the game but you do you I guess.

Hopefully the game is over but if it is somehow not, don't quicklynch me tomorrow or anything silly like that. I'll need to use the time to figure out Errant and Gustavo in-depth and bounce ideas back and forth with skitter. I'll probably be at work 48 hours from now.

My TW case was using Math quotes as part of my evidence of TW's meta.

I also linked and described examples from like 6 of his games and my analysis of him from the game we were in together.

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:55 am

In post 3260, Not_Mafia wrote:Poor

Gustavo next then EP

but why not BV

Nauci · Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:35 am

Irrelephant/Keyser: just to be safe (and extra paranoid), read over/evaluate Skitter's ISO if NM flips green. I trust y'all both on alignment and judgment to town a victory (which is why I cleared you two and claimed today instead of tomorrow).

If Skitter is scum though she deserves this victory hand over fist.

Nauci · Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:04 am

This game was absolutely spectacular and I can't believe I read every post in a 160 pager

I might run a reunion game with a Romance of the Three Kingdoms theme some time in the future, with brass playing in my spot

Everyone played absolutely brilliantly, especially Skitter and BV (bv you'll want to read my posts about you in the dead thread lol)

Errant, you're just brilliant

Nauci · Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:14 am

Shoshin I learned a ton about scumhunting from you! I'm not just posting reactions and wall posts now, but asking the kinds of questions that help sort people's mindsets <3

I was itching to claim SO hard lol (I mean, I did write up that giant wall post during the night), but was so scared that I had done it 1 day too early. I thought that if I could just clear the 2 slots that Skitter would be most paranoid about, we'd be golden. Sorry for sussing you so hard, BV! You caught my inexplicable extra knowledge SO hard. Brilliant

Brass, yeah. Romance of the Three Kingdoms and Journey to the West probably inspired more media/games/etc. than Lord of the Rings and the Roman Empire did in the west. Red Cliff is an absolutely incredible epic movie (like an only 4 hour long Lord of the Rings trilogy, with Chinese people and dope ass fight scenes).

Nauci · Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:14 am

In post 4052, Lycanfire wrote:Killary eating duck was the best part of this game

I'm glad my 20-30 minutes in Photoshop were not wasted

Nauci · Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:25 am

In post 4031, Gustavo wrote:I need to seriously readjust what I find scummy but idk how

Mastina/MHSmith/etc. post some very good threads discussing how to be pro town and scum hunt and what are signs of scumminess and even a great VCA practice somewhere on the site; I think they helped me quite a lot.

Nauci · Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:34 am

In post 4057, brassherald wrote:Did they do a western version of it? I know Yojimbo is considered a classic movie, but I've only watched A Fistful of Dollars and figured I have it pretty much covered.

Or like a Crime Drama? I have seen The Departed, but not Infernal Affairs.

What I'm basically saying is, I'm kind of really white.

It's so rooted in Chinese history and culture that it'd be difficult to do, unlike the dynamic of The Departed (or Hamlet; even the Chinese have movies that are basically Hamlet). Only Chinese/Japanese/Korean adaptations thus far.

Journey to the West is eeeeeverywhere though. Every MOBA has a Sun Wu Kong character lol. Sun Wu Kong is more familiar to Chinese kids than Snow White/Cinderella/Lion King/Spongebob combined out here.

Nauci · Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:35 am

T_T I put in soooooooooooooooooooo much effort in this game that I'm burned out too except I signed up for more games so that's bad

Oh well gotta roll up my sleeves and solve those

Nauci · Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:33 pm

Subject: American Presidents, the War Room Mafia PT

the worst wrote:Dino n1
Every time I leave him alive he eats me

Lmao Dino still vicariously ated duckling

Poor TW

Nauci · Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:13 am

I think I'm at the part where I think I'm burned out and need to stop efforting so hard but I actually can't so I keep effortposting super hard but like, now with more resentment and nihism

ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ nothing ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ matters ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ

Nauci · Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:40 pm

Lol I signed up for multiple games

Then realized I'm in the middle of a coding boot camp, am rebuilding my PC and desk, washing all of my carpets, reorganizing my whole apartment, etc. I has to replace an electrical socket and a light switch today

What have I done T_T

Nauci · Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:14 am

Sign ups have opened for my mini normal in the normal queue if any of y'all are interested

It's just a pre-designed setup; I'll make something custom in the future

Nauci · Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:18 am

Yaaaassss I am SO down for 5e

Nauci · Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:21 pm

Hahaha

No worries guys this isn't meant to be the reunion game or anything; I just wanted to mod a pre-designed to get practice modding while I'm feeling overgamed myself

Nauci · Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:45 am

Warning

I'm kinda extra in the commentary hahahaha

You can ask any poor mod who's had to put up with my livejournaling PMs

Nauci · Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:46 pm

In post 4112, Raskolnikov wrote:well you know it's not over yet, im sure there are plenty of conceivable ways to still turn it around. maybe aliens invade in 2020 and the "space force" saves humanity

I'd just assume it was a coordinated plot to spike his approval ratings and get him re-elected like 9/11 did for Bush, except intentional collusion and poorly executed.

Or, the aliens assume he's representative of all of us and decide to raze the planet for everyone's sake.

Nauci · Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:11 am

In post 4117, Gamma Emerald wrote:A sign of how much I’ve changed
Subject: Micro 699: Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright [Game Over]

Gamma Emerald wrote:Also I'm never settling for my lynch again, I always lose when that happens
I did this again this game and it worked out

Nice