Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Sesq - 5 - lane0168, innocentvillager, GuiltyLion, FA_Q2, Almost50
Almost50 - 4 - Eragon, Nero Cain, RockyHorror, Sesq
Nero Cain - 1 - Thor665
GuiltyLion - 1 - Fink

Not Voting - Aristophanes, Jingle

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline is Sunday September 2 at 10pm EST

[Thor665]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

I think the possibility I'm currently seeing is you're arguing the point from emptiness just to try to beat it down. Bringing up counterpoints youc can't support is not an interesting or pro-town conversation.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere.

So basically the town read is mostly predicated on the value of your A50 read?
That's a silly stance.

Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.

It certainly is in size and support...for...some reason.

@Sesq

- hi, I think A50 is town and you're a Mime.
I'm stating Mjolnir intent on you.
Please claim.
I'm also willing to take non-presence as a scum claim, so keep that in mind.

[Eragon]

You think sesq is a mime but just stated hammer intent?

(I understand not worrying about the mimes until we actually lynch one, but still hammering someone you think is mime is weird

[lane0168]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

I think the possibility I'm currently seeing is you're arguing the point from emptiness just to try to beat it down. Bringing up counterpoints youc can't support is not an interesting or pro-town conversation.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere.

So basically the town read is mostly predicated on the value of your A50 read?
That's a silly stance.

Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.

It certainly is in size and support...for...some reason.

@Sesq

- hi, I think A50 is town and you're a Mime.
I'm stating Mjolnir intent on you.
Please claim.
I'm also willing to take non-presence as a scum claim, so keep that in mind.

What's my counterpoint? I simply asked what is suspect, and you keep not answering it. Twice in fact. Now you're just throwing shade for no reason.

[RockyHorror]

You think sesq is a mime but just stated hammer intent?

(I understand not worrying about the mimes until we actually lynch one, but still hammering someone you think is mime is weird

If thor has a mimeread vs a townread at deadline, who would you rather he hammer?

[Sesq]

vanilla townie my man

[Fink]

I would also rather lynch Sesq than A50 at this point, and I also think Sesq is reasonably likely to be a Mime. Really don't like either wagon.

I'll be around off and on all day, definitely around for deadline.

[Fink]

Jingle and Nero both lean Mafia to me

What's your reasoning for this?

[lane0168]

VOTE: almost50 L-1

Mimes will hammer themselves

[Eragon]

VOTE: almost50 L-1

Mimes will hammer themselves

L-2

[Eragon]

You think sesq is a mime but just stated hammer intent?

(I understand not worrying about the mimes until we actually lynch one, but still hammering someone you think is mime is weird

If thor has a mimeread vs a townread at deadline, who would you rather he hammer?

oh, i didnt get that he had a TR on A50 when he posted that.

nvm

[Eragon]

Sesq - 4 - innocentvillager, GuiltyLion, FA_Q2, Almost50
Almost50 - 5 - Eragon, Nero Cain, RockyHorror, Sesq, Lane0168
Nero Cain - 1 - Thor665
GuiltyLion - 1 - Fink

Not Voting - Aristophanes, Jingle

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[Almost50]

Jingle and Nero both lean Mafia to me

What's your reasoning for this?

It was explained within the same post. Basically I think the pressure on me is to get a claim, and this comes from both Mimes and Mafia alike (for different reasons though). DR (Nero) was under serious pressure, yet he sunned out, and Nero (his replacement) also fought against his wagon hard, so he's definitely not Mime. Knowing Nero though I would give him a reasonable chance being Town (based on his own play and disregarding DT's) because Nero is OMGUS'y by nature.

What I can't understand is why Jingle pushed me this hard asserting I was scum when (a) He knows me well enough, and (b) He said he was all caught up, so definitely did read my posts.

Furthermore, Jingle is very good at setup spec, and his plans seem more pro-Mafia to me than anything. "Let's not worry about the Mimes until we've lynched one" basically gives the MAFIA an easier route to lynching anyone that's not them. Then "If we lynch a Mime we stop lynching altogether" deprives the Town from it's

main

weapon in any given Mafia game: The lynch. In this game we have 2 kills and the Mafia have only one. Forfeiting the lynch is giving away 50% of our kills.

The Vig shoots "blindly" while the Mafia know who's not Mafia, so chances are the Vig might be hitting Town (or Mime) while they can concentrate on shooting TOWN.

There was also this little gambit I had set (albeit it being of a small chance of succeeding) which is assigning the Mafia target. It was in hopes the Mafia duo are both inexperienced or not paying enough attention and would somehow forget about the Watcher when they think of the NK. The Watcher would have automatically been on the Mafia target to catch one Mafioso if that's the case.

Jingle has not only shown awareness of this, but has explained why the Mafia shooting an outed Vig was a bad idea (I maintain I would totally sacrifice myself in exchange of both TPRs if I was Mafia and my p was still alive though), and while being aware of the mechanics isn't scummy in itself it's the way he explained it to the masses that makes me iffy. I mean, WHY draw the Mafia's attention to it even if there was as little as a 5% chance of them not realizing it already? I mean, it could be argued that Jingle was talking precisely of the Vig, but saying it like that even the least competitive Mafioso would realize it applies to any "known" target of theirs.

If someone wants to boil it all down to BoP then I won't mind calling it just that. There's a certain way you would expect Jingle to think and play (regardless of the accuracy of his reads) and when his play seems way below par it probably is scum driven.

[Jingle]

Jingle has not only shown awareness of this, but has explained why the Mafia shooting an outed Vig was a bad idea (I maintain I would totally sacrifice myself in exchange of both TPRs if I was Mafia and my p was still alive though), and while being aware of the mechanics isn't scummy in itself it's the way he explained it to the masses that makes me iffy. I mean, WHY draw the Mafia's attention to it even if there was as little as a 5% chance of them not realizing it already? I mean, it could be argued that Jingle was talking precisely of the Vig, but saying it like that even the least competitive Mafioso would realize it applies to any "known" target of theirs.

First. Yes. I did see that post. It's a scum post.

Second, selective meta.

The game A50 knows me from we were both scum. And I made it very clear to him in that game that my scum strategy is to argue correct play.

As far as why I drew the attention to them targeting the town's choice of Night Kill target being a terrible idea (Which, yes, I did), it was because of one thing. A 5% chance of catching incompetent scum is not worth a 95% chance of not being able to use our PRs effectively. Aiming the watcher (and to a lesser extent, the vig) is a terrible idea, because publicly aiming a watcher means scum know exactly who not to shoot and the mimes know exactly who not to roleblock.

[Jingle]

Sober me agrees with drunk me regarding not wanting either wagon to go through, btw.

[Fink]

Okay, let's try this
VOTE: Lane

[Jingle]

VOTE: Lane

We presumably also have support from both A50 and Thor, so this is already a better wagon than Sesq.

[Thor665]

You think sesq is a mime but just stated hammer intent?

(I understand not worrying about the mimes until we actually lynch one, but still hammering someone you think is mime is weird

Considering I straight up said in the hammer intent post that I townread A50...

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

I think the possibility I'm currently seeing is you're arguing the point from emptiness just to try to beat it down. Bringing up counterpoints youc can't support is not an interesting or pro-town conversation.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere.

So basically the town read is mostly predicated on the value of your A50 read?
That's a silly stance.

Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.

It certainly is in size and support...for...some reason.

@Sesq

- hi, I think A50 is town and you're a Mime.
I'm stating Mjolnir intent on you.
Please claim.
I'm also willing to take non-presence as a scum claim, so keep that in mind.

What's my counterpoint? I simply asked what is suspect, and you keep not answering it. Twice in fact. Now you're just throwing shade for no reason.

You're literally quoting posts that contain me explaining why I think it's scummy.
To restate it for the third time for you - I think running up one person for 'Case A' while ignoring another person that 'Case A' exemplifies is very questionable for both parties involved.

What *did* happen was you tried multiple times to try to handwave my suspicion by making up cases that *YOU* didn't back up.

I'm very happy there's wagon interest in you now though, so I can do this;

Vote: Lane

Feel free to quote me avoiding answering your questions.
I'll wait

[Thor665]

I most certainly am noticing that. But what's not amazing to me, is people not jumping from a leading wagon to a non wagon for essentially the same case.

Yeah, but that they chose Sesq over you is a thing.

Here's me "avoiding explaining my issue" to Lane.

[Thor665]

Is is strange that ppl want to lynch scum over Lane? Also, you seem content sitting on a not scum wagon so your whine that we aren't lynching Lane seems odd.

It is not strange that people want ot lynch scum over Lane and I never said anything of the sort - what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is). Want to debate my actual statements instead of a straw man?

You haven't done mch to convince me you're not a scum slot - your predecessor was scummy and this has been very lacksidasical Nero play thus far. Are you claiming I should have a town read on your slot for some reason? Why?

Here I am explaining it to Nero when he asked.
Gosh, I am working so hard to avoid explaining my thought here.

[Thor665]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

Here's Lane hard dodging me questioning his defense of himself - for anyone not keeping track.

Lane then claimed that I'm not explaining my case and that he isn't trying to make a point against it?
Seriously now.

[Jingle]

So basically the town read is mostly predicated on the value of your A50 read?
That's a silly stance.

Oh, btw, this is incorrect. It would be more accurate to say that because he is hearing hoofbeats and thinking horse and I'm hearing hoofbeats and thinking horse that we're based in more or less the same cultural and geological setting.

His thoughts mirror mine, therefore his intentions likely also mirror mine. Mine are from a town perspective, therefore his are likely to be from a town perspective. And yeah, it is admittedly fairly weak.

[Eragon]

hot damn late day CFD

[Thor665]

@Jingle - That tell is as valid as saying 'people that agree with me are town and people that disagree are scum'.
It's a stance, sure, but I don't think it's less silly than the above.

[Eragon]

thing is, i could probably dig it, but i havent really formed a good read on lane.

ill do an ISO skim probably