Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Light Ethos]

About Naomi-Tan's read list:

I agree with your assessment of Crimson, Flavor Leaf, Frank, Parrot, Manatee, and saudade.

I have more questions for you:

Why do you find me more suspicious than Crimson if your gripe with me is being "safe" and being connected to Crimson? It seems that your gripe with Crimson is that he's being safe in pushing and tunneling on someone who hasn't posted in a few days. Shouldn't you logically then go after the source of the problem?

Why do you think that Doughboy is bad town? I can see him being town. What makes him bad to you?
What is your take on the worst: Are you leaning toward frustrated town just like saudade? How do you reconcile his lack of interest in the game? I ask these things because that's where my vote is, and that's where your frustrated town saudade's vote is.

You express disdain for votes you deem safe. If you don't want a safe vote, what are you looking for instead? Separately, how do you propose to put pressure on players who aren't contributing?

[Naomi-Tan]

As for PL, I'm generally against it there are more reds than greens so a shot in the dark isn't great. if we have to lynch though I'd rather go for someone who is at least trying to look active while not contributing much over someone who is literally doing nothing.

[Light Ethos]

@Naomi: Thank you for the read list.

I would like you to answer my pushback. Please substantiate your claim that my Post 41 and Post 418 support Crimson. I don't trust Crimson any more than you do, and I believe that your case against me falls apart if you can't substantiate it.

Also a question for you since many people have you down as town: how do you feel about a Day 1 policy lynch? Your comments seem like you're against it, but I'd like to hear what you have to say about it. I'm still leaning toward you being town, but your quickness to cast a vote before you even finished rereading the thread does not feel town motivated. If I'm wrong about leaning town on you, it's because I put too much weight on my perception of your interaction with Flavor Leaf as being town vs. town.

41 Light Ethos: Mentions crimson but asks no questions or anything (this is the post that Profili called the worst post)

I say nothing about supporting on 41.

Crimson was trying to get some pressure on a player he knew. You asked him why. He gives a veiled answer about him being difficult to read. This should be enough back and forth until manatee responds. Instead, Frank comes in and wants more detail in finding out why manatee is being pressured.

My post 41 asserts that Frank's question defeats Crimson's purpose. I don't think there is anything wrong with Manatee receiving pressure at that point, and I think page 2 is a bit too early for players to have reason to undermine other players' pressure.

In this post (in the section highlighted) you defend his position saying there was nothing wrong with the pressure he was giving at that time in the game.

Thank you for the response. My contention is that I would have said these things regardless of which player was in Crimson's position or Manatee's position. In general, I do not believe that undermining another player's pressure on Page 2 is good for town. The reason why I said that you said that 41 supports Crimson is because the subject of 418 is the mindset behind 41. Thank you also for your position on PLs.

[Krazy]

Active lurking and hard lurking can both be scummy. The question is what is scummier for the particular player in question.

Naomi, I've cased him below. Let me know whether you think he is self-destructing, which would be consistent with his general approach to scum, or whether he is doing a weird reaction test as in "Town Game 1"

Spoiler:

OK so so far Manatee has been self-voting for 4 days, called 20 scummy (it's not), and then seemed to weirdly parrot my case on Frank in 339. And that's basically his entire iso?

Comparisons:

Scum games:
"Scum Game 1"
You can see that he seems to have no idea how to play scum here -- viewtopic.php?t=76985&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

(he basically immediately replaces out because he got red in his role pm)

"Scum Game 2"
and here -- viewtopic.php?t=76171&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

(he again basically immediately replaces out because he got red in his role pm)

"Scum Game 3"
And it takes him days to vote someone for a reason that doesn't sound like complete garbage as scum here -- viewtopic.php?t=76641&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

(he basically does nothing except buzzwords and fluffposting for like a solid week until he can decide who to try to push)

vs. Town games:
"Town Game 1"
if this was manatee doing a reaction test, he would have already, you know, reacted, as here:
viewtopic.php?t=76784&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

"Town Game 2"
and if town he would probably just be doing more as he did here: viewtopic.php?t=76645&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

"Town Game 3"
or actually be able to write literally anything sensible as here: viewtopic.php?t=75961&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

so this could plausibly be scum, and if he's town he's pretty much just dead weight for us. I don't think we need to pretend this is just a policy lynch at the moment, he generally self-destructs as scum and he seems to basically be self-destructing here.

Concerns:
>He does seem to at least pretend to be pro-town and vote people early as scum, so this level of self-destructiveness is unusual even for him
>Scum probably already want to bus so even if he's red we won't get much info

Despite these concerns I would still say he is plausibly scum this game, and easily in my bottom 4. So far this looks more like scum games 1 and 2 to me than town game 1, which would be the closest town analogue.

[Light Ethos]

Props to Krazy for doing the work. Thank you. Like Naomi-Tan, I hope Manatee comes back and explains what's going on. I don't have an objection about voting him out. The problem with just letting people who leave the thread for several days be is that scum can also safely leave these people be, and they don't help us solve the game. I'm content with where my vote is for now though, as Manatee should get prodded soon, and there is plenty of time left in the day.

[Sashaddin]

Sashaddin: definitely get a lost vibe from them, but thats okay given there still learning. hope that they find there place and work things out before there lack of experience catches up to them. most likely to be a D3 push by red (if they are not red).

Grade: A+
Too many people with too many interactions, I find it hard to follow and spot the hidden links like Naomi just did in the spoiler. I'll get better as more people get killed.

[Sashaddin]

The spoiler is from Krazy, not Naomi sorry.

[Sashaddin]

Not the spoiler but the post from Naomi 554. There. I'm drunk, see you guys tomorrow.

[Light Ethos]

I realized that I missed one of Naomi-Tan's most important posts. Don't worry about answering the question about the worst, but please do answer the others when you get the chance.

[Naomi-Tan]

Why do you find me more suspicious than Crimson if your gripe with me is being "safe" and being connected to Crimson? It seems that your gripe with Crimson is that he's being safe in pushing and tunneling on someone who hasn't posted in a few days. Shouldn't you logically then go after the source of the problem?

eh its about 50-50 I'm mostly freaked out with the votes and pressure trending nearly identically from the start of the game and I started from looking up you and theres the time thing where it looks like you retroactively applied a reason for voting, so... your kinda trending just for the frank post.

You express disdain for votes you deem safe. If you don't want a safe vote, what are you looking for instead? Separately, how do you propose to put pressure on players who aren't contributing?

Votes that are gonna contribution, start a discussion or a back and froth like I had early game. good reactions, back and frothing liking to get others to react to create a situation where peoples responses are going to better help us build a picture of who alignments are what. Safe alignments are all well and good but ones that are on the more vocal players that get reactions really help place people imo.

As for lurkers... well we can always hope they get prod/replaced so we can have active contributors but I'd rather focus on people who we can determine the alignment of more soundly and then use PoE to get rid of the lurkers based on what little they have done. thing it with active lurkers there isn't much to read back on in an iso and you can retrospec really easy

[Naomi-Tan]

Just for clarity I have no issue with the content of the pressure. It was merely displaying the relation.

Also now Krazy has some solid meta info, im more respective to lynching them if things don't turn around before the end of the day.

[Naomi-Tan]

Right heading bed, don't think i'll be very active tomorrow as its a busy day.

[Light Ethos]

I'll post some thoughts since there seems to be a break in the action.

This is my first game outside Newbie queue, so I don't know how what number of scum members to start guessing from. To start out, I'll just take it as a logical extension of Newbie queue, adding a mafia player for each town player I add. If Newbie is 2 vs. 7, then I'll start by guessing that this is 4 vs. 9. In that context, if the Neighborhood has 3 people in it, assuming random assortment of players, the probability of at least one mafia member being in the Neighborhood is roughly 75%. Note that I calculated this with the additional information that I'm town and not in the neighborhood, so that 75% only holds from the perspective of any individual town member who is not a Neighbor. It is possible that none of the Neighbors are mafia, but that's unlikely. This is probably not news to anyone, but I think it's worth saying. About 25% of the time, all of them are town, 25% of the time, more than one is mafia, and about 50% of the time, exactly one is mafia. Again, this is all assuming that the setup doesn't assign members of the Neighborhood in a way that isn't random.

Shame on anyone if they have Naomi and me as a scum team.
Parrot and Manatee need to come back.
Flavor Leaf and Naomi look like an unlikely scum team.
Same with saudade and Doughboy.
Frank and Flavor Leaf don't seem likely to be together.
Neither do Crimson and Manatee despite their history.
It isn't easy to get a sense of connections between profii and others due to his low word count.

At the moment, my best guess after a brief review of the game is that the worst is scum with at least someone in { Manatee, Crimson, Parrot, Frank }. If I say that the worst is scum, which my vote indicates, and if I maintain that I am town, then at least one of those players is in that set is scum is roughly 78% of the time. Exactly one of them is scum about 50% of the time. More than one is scum about 28% of the time. I agree with Krazy's point about the difference between active lurking and hard lurking. My current vote, and the four players in that set have pinged me for one of those two things. They also don't show much conflict with the worst.

[Light Ethos]

Why do you find me more suspicious than Crimson if your gripe with me is being "safe" and being connected to Crimson? It seems that your gripe with Crimson is that he's being safe in pushing and tunneling on someone who hasn't posted in a few days. Shouldn't you logically then go after the source of the problem?

eh its about 50-50 I'm mostly freaked out with the votes and pressure trending nearly identically from the start of the game and I started from looking up you and theres the time thing where it looks like you retroactively applied a reason for voting, so... your kinda trending just for the frank post.

You express disdain for votes you deem safe. If you don't want a safe vote, what are you looking for instead? Separately, how do you propose to put pressure on players who aren't contributing?

Votes that are gonna contribution, start a discussion or a back and froth like I had early game. good reactions, back and frothing liking to get others to react to create a situation where peoples responses are going to better help us build a picture of who alignments are what. Safe alignments are all well and good but ones that are on the more vocal players that get reactions really help place people imo.

As for lurkers... well we can always hope they get prod/replaced so we can have active contributors but I'd rather focus on people who we can determine the alignment of more soundly and then use PoE to get rid of the lurkers based on what little they have done. thing it with active lurkers there isn't much to read back on in an iso and you can retrospec really easy

Thank you for the clear and transparent answers. Back to the town camp you go for me.

[Krazy]

If Newbie is 2 vs. 7, then I'll start by guessing that this is 4 vs. 9.

3 vs. 10 is more common. If it was 4v9 it would be 3 goons + traitor and even then town would have to have a hilarious amount of power for it to get passed on this site meta. 2v11 is possible if it's another mountainous, but two mountainous games just completed so I see that as pretty unlikely. Unless you have a good reason to think otherwise, 3v10 is most likely.

[Light Ethos]

Thank you. Then everyone disregard the numbers in Post 587.

[Krazy]

Here are some recently completed games to get a better sense of how this site balances games this size:

2024 (fairly typical): viewtopic.php?f=90&t=76992

2016 (also typical): viewtopic.php?p=10329292#p10329292

2013 (also typical): viewtopic.php?p=10208374#p10208374

There's a mountainous that completed recently but I can't find the mod thread with the full setup so w/e, it was 2 masons and 9 VTs vs 2 goons. I feel like that was on the unusual side tho so it probably doesn't help anyway

[Light Ethos]

I'll post some thoughts since there seems to be a break in the action.

This is my first game outside Newbie queue, so I don't know how what number of scum members to start guessing from. To start out, I'll just take it as a logical extension of Newbie queue, adding a mafia player for each town player I add. If Newbie is 2 vs. 7, then I'll start by guessing that this is 4 vs. 9. In that context, if the Neighborhood has 3 people in it, assuming random assortment of players, the probability of at least one mafia member being in the Neighborhood is roughly 75%. Note that I calculated this with the additional information that I'm town and not in the neighborhood, so that 75% only holds from the perspective of any individual town member who is not a Neighbor. It is possible that none of the Neighbors are mafia, but that's unlikely. This is probably not news to anyone, but I think it's worth saying. About 25% of the time, all of them are town, 25% of the time, more than one is mafia, and about 50% of the time, exactly one is mafia. Again, this is all assuming that the setup doesn't assign members of the Neighborhood in a way that isn't random.

Shame on anyone if they have Naomi and me as a scum team.
Parrot and Manatee need to come back.
Flavor Leaf and Naomi look like an unlikely scum team.
Same with saudade and Doughboy.
Frank and Flavor Leaf don't seem likely to be together.
Neither do Crimson and Manatee despite their history.
It isn't easy to get a sense of connections between profii and others due to his low word count.

At the moment, my best guess after a brief review of the game is that the worst is scum with at least someone in { Manatee, Crimson, Parrot, Frank }. If I say that the worst is scum, which my vote indicates, and if I maintain that I am town, then at least one of those players is in that set is scum is roughly 78% of the time. Exactly one of them is scum about 50% of the time. More than one is scum about 28% of the time. I agree with Krazy's point about the difference between active lurking and hard lurking. My current vote, and the four players in that set have pinged me for one of those two things. They also don't show much conflict with the worst.

Editing this with a second post.
Updated assumptions to carry all the way through:
One town player is removed from the calculation because the reader knows that they are town.
It's 3 v. 10 as Krazy said.

For a 3 person Neighborhood assuming that the Neighborhood is randomly assigned:
0 are mafia: 38%
1 is mafia: 49%
More than 1 mafia: 13%

For the case that you have reason to believe that one person is scum and want to see if a partner is in a four-person set:
(For my case, I think the worst is scummy, and my set of lurkers with little to go off of is {Manatee, Crimson, and Parrot. I'll also add Frank because he's under pressure, and I could go either way on him.}
0 are mafia: 38%
1 is mafia: 51%
2 are mafia: 11%

For a four-person set with no other assumed scum:
0 are mafia: 25%
1 is mafia: 51%
More than 1 mafia: 24%

The takeaway I have from this is that it's unlikely that all of the members of that set are town, and from my perspective, none of them look town to me. However, it is incredibly unlikely that all scum are in that set. Each member in that set of four is a safe vote as Naomi-Tan put it. Of the people outside this group who could potentially be a member of a team with one of these people, the worst seems most likely to me. I'm comfortable leaving my vote where it is for now.

[Light Ethos]

I'm happy that work calmed down. Had to leave the site for a month during the brunt of busy season.

[the worst]

There's a mountainous that completed recently but I can't find the mod thread with the full setup so w/e, it was 2 masons and 9 VTs vs 2 goons. I feel like that was on the unusual side tho so it probably doesn't help anyway

2 masons
9 vt

maf rolecop
maf encryptor

and yeah espe had to suddenly siteflake so the thread is lost to the ages : (

[profii]

Ok I think that reaction test has run it’s course. I’ll be with y’all later today

[the worst]

VOTE: LEthos
rope pl0x

[the worst]

busyworky and buddyish as fuck
dase on me boils down to "I sheeped onto the wagon"
bad unexplained preflip associatives for dayssss

if this is actually town I'm blatantly disappointed in his play.

[the worst]

sorry if this is just reeking of OMGUS but I literally can't stand people openwolfing while trying to mislynch me. one of my best strengths is splitting town pushing me from scum pushing me and LEthos is full of shit.

[profii]

what convinces you that I'm scummier than Krazy?

bit presumptuous

Your vote is on me and not on Krazy. It's a reasonable assumption for me to think that you find me the scummier of your proposed scum team. (Unless your response means that you just think that I'm a bit presumptuous in general. That's the problem with only posting several word responses. It isn't easy to tell what you fully mean.)

This is town

The 2 post thing was to see if - via a lack of content - anyone would try and put words in my mouth - I said LE was towny because he just said it as it is - but there seems to have been a lot of movement on his slot so I’ll re read the last few pages properly soon