Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Krazy]

Well I assume Flavor leaf will now take it as an attempted pocket but I guess it might be time to share my reads list.

I kinda wanted to hold off until the parrot was replaced but seems the thread is picking up a bit. yolo

[Krazy]

Townread

Flavor Leaf

Spoiler:

Look at that face and tell me he's not town.

Real talk: 97 103 111 and 122 in conjunction with each other indicate town!Flavor, even though I think he is wrong about 122

Doughboy

Spoiler:

Aww, he's so temperamental! But he's still probably town. Basically I don't think scum ever responds to my icebreaker like he did.

Light Ethos

Spoiler:

I think he probably flips town!

Real talk: While I understand Flavor is concerned that 587 and 592 look like IIoA, I basically just buy this guy being so new he seriously thought we could plausibly be in 4:9. I personally take 587 as a townslip.

The Duck

Spoiler:

The duck doesn't get angry as scum. Getting angry from d1 pressure after replacing in to a TPR makes a lot of sense.

Likely town

Saudade

Spoiler:

He could go either way, but I think he grows into something beautiful for the town this game.

Real talk: Things like 198 look more like town!Saudade, although my read here is weaker than for Flavor or Doughboy.

Crimson

Spoiler:

I think he probably flips town!

Real talk: This read right now is almost 100% based on 346 which I really liked. Low certainty on this read but I'm fine with it for now.

Paranoia note: 346 reads very similar to Naomi's traitor post here -- viewtopic.php?p=8643000#p8643000 so if Naomi were to somehow flip red I might have to re-evaluate this read on the risk that Crimson is getting tutored in the scum PT.

Null / Very Mixed Feelings

The Parrot

Spoiler:

Need I say more?

Naomi

Spoiler:

*note that the gifs were selected earlier in the day and a few slots have moved. deal with it.

Naomi is a competent scum player and in general a powergamer. The main things I have noticed from Naomi are: An early push on Flavor: 95 followed by a shift to profii in 205, a lack of reaction to my case on Frank in 318 and 319, an unvote in 475, a strange case on Light in 554, and a rambling reads list in 565. So there is a lot to work with here, but it does not easily point to a clear, definite answer on a read.

"Scum Game 1"
As scum, Naomi tends to be more aggressive early
Here's a scum game where she starts with an early push: viewtopic.php?p=4585949#p4585949
Unvotes to reevaluate: viewtopic.php?p=4601659#p4601659
Then after getting some pressure for not voting comes back with more pressure: viewtopic.php?p=4616997#p4616997

I was scumreading her for most of this dayphase because this looks a lot like the trajectory of 95 --> 205 --> an unvote in 475 --> 554

Likewise, since I feel like Frank is scum, 318 and 319 seemed like a scummy way to react.

"Town Game 1"
As town she tends to be much more reactive -- it takes her long time to vote at all here: viewtopic.php?t=69502&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

But there's also a lot to point to her being town and that makes me lack certainty on her being scum.

Towncase counter-argument:

"Town Game 2"
In this VT game she does an RVS, unvotes, and then pushes later the same day here: viewtopic.php?t=29652&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

So town game 2 matches her play style here relatively well.

Another counter-argument to Naomi scum comes from Scum Game 1: viewtopic.php?p=4651585#p4651585
As you can see there, the reads list is a lot less detailed than her reads this game.

It's also the case that as town she tends to ramble more in her reads lists, as you can see form this town game reads list: viewtopic.php?p=8691601#p8691601

Rebuttal:

"Traitor Game 1"
But you can see she is fully capable of doing a detailed reads list as a Scum Traitor here -- viewtopic.php?p=8643218#p8643218

My main issue with using this as a rebuttal point is that she has a lot more incentive to do a detailed reads list as scum when she is traitor since she is trying to communicate with the scum team.

To that extent I end up having mixed feelings on Naomi. Among my mixed reads, I think she flips scum before the parrot.

Possible Scum

The Golfball

Spoiler:

I was scumreading this slot for a while, but the replace-out AtE bothered me more than I expected.

There's not a lot to work with in terms of meta here but here's what we got:
Goon - viewtopic.php?t=76282&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=76641&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=76983&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

In this respect, I feel like it's not unreasonable to say that 357 is scummy. If you look at the VT games, he does unvote on occasion, but he also is usually quicker to come back and put pressure on slots. He also is willing to name scumreads. It's unusual for him to have such weak reads or be unwilling to commit to reads. Likewise, the main thing that bothers me is the frequency with which he plays the newbie card, which he also used quite frequently in his scum game win in newbie queue.

Counter-argument:
He never unvotes in his one scum game, but he does in his town games, so there is the risk that taking the time to reassess the game is actually town indicative. This keeps him in the pink for now, rather than the dark red.

Mostly Mute Profii

Spoiler:

89 was the start to a very passive early game. It was also weird how he asked for my read on Naomi in 187 when he hadn't said his own. In 294 he accuses Frank of white knighting me, but then in 352 implies he thinks I'm scum. Then in 369 he says that me and LE are a scum team. One thing that REALLY threw me was 386, because even though he had "ding ding" on me being scum, he agreed with Saudade that it was "Frank + any Lurker"... unless he sees me as a lurker (I'm not)? I started to get bored of his fake two post restriction 442 when he accused me of "role fishing" his obviously fake role, but at that point I wasn't sure whether he was straight up channeling Meme Man or Pod Person and if I ruined his trolling fun immediately he'd self-destruct. Surprise surprise, when I finally get fed up with people asking him about it he backlashes at me. In 461 he starts on the shit reasoning that there "has" to be scum in the neighborhood (to be clear, out of the three games with neighborhoods I have been in, only 1/3 had scum in the neighborhood, and that was a theme game). He says "admittedly assuming" but he then continues with that same shit logic when he breaks out of the fake two post restriction.

Right now if he's town I think he is literally the heaviest person in the game, and I just characterized the Parrot as a Snorlax. After 600 I have downgraded this slot to my bottom 4 but I am not certain this is scum quite yet; for much of the day he has been floating up and down my neutrals list, but with my other reads solidifying and my scumread of Naomi softening, I'm starting to think this is more likely to flip red.

Likely Scum

Frank

Spoiler:

I guess people weren't blown away by my Frank case, but for reference, the question isn't "is skipping RVS scummy" the question is "is skipping RVS scummy for the player"

There's not a huge sample size for Frank, but here it is:

Third Party -- viewtopic.php?t=70956&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=70754&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=69166&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

He does not skip RVS as VT and he does as SK. So that raises the question--why did he skip it this game? I don't feel like I ever got a sense of why he was avoiding it this game, and it leads in to my sense that he has been playing defensively. His push on Saudade seemed safe and weak and then he went into hardlurk. Seems like pretty likely scum to me.

The Manatee

Spoiler:

I summarized my main feelings on the Manatee here: 578. The self-vote, in and of itself, is NAI. The question is what has he done since then. And the answer is--nothing. This is consistent with his scum game, of taking a long time to formulate cases and sitting on weak votes for a long period of time.

Since he 'came back' all he has offered are posts like: 657, 676 which suggest he is only right now looking at a few players, and those players I am fairly certain are town. I think he can't figure out a solid mislynch and so he basically is basically lurking until he figures out what to do. You can tell that he has posted elsewhere on site during his prod, so it's not like he wasn't logging on--he has been logging on and ignoring this thread, which suggests he doesn't know what to do, which is more consistent with his scum game. That or he's waiting for suggestions in his scum PT.

As in 578 I still have some concerns with the case here, namely that he usually makes SLIGHTLY more of an effort to seem pro-town as scum than he has here. But if you look at his town games, he's not afraid to put pressure on slots with his vote, which he basically is not doing at all here.

[Flavor Leaf]

Those political as hell reads, though

I’m beginning to feel I might be wrong based on the fact that that reads list just screams scum to me.

[Flavor Leaf]

He’s pandering to me with Pikachu! Bold move. I tip my hat to you...

[Krazy]

If so I decided to start pandering to you in 432. You were my first townread this game and you haven't moved at all. I don't give someone pikachu if I have doubts.

[Krazy]

*434 whoops

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t think it was out of the possibility you had picked up that I was leaning towards you, or at least suspicious prior than that.

In fact, I had expected you to pick up on it if you were scum. I gave you that paranoia pressure.

[Flavor Leaf]

I can appreciate a good Krazy vote right now.

I don’t think Krazy is scum however, but I see why people would think that, and I don’t find it scummy to vote there right now.

(Hint: I’m definitely wanting to see who votes Krazy)

(Second Hint: I’m definitely wanting to see who does what now after I gave that hint.)

I’m green on Krazy rn, but I understand is all. I understand that people would see there red.

This mixed in with the fact that i have complete opposite reads of you makes it seem like you have extreme political reads.

[Light Ethos]

The Eevee Pikachu GIF is a really nice touch. Thank you for the read list. Also, thank you to Crimson for answering my question.

[Krazy]

I assure you I put a lot of pressure on my reads lists since my current hitrate with early game reads lists is pretty out of this world and I didn't want to screw up my track record. That being said I've been going back and forth a lot on some slots, I just don't vomit my thoughts out into the thread every time a read shifts a single tick.

[Light Ethos]

Those political as hell reads, though

I’m beginning to feel I might be wrong based on the fact that that reads list just screams scum to me.

Political reads? I'm not disagreeing with you; I don't know what you mean by that and would like to.

[Krazy]

He means he thinks I tailored the reads list to make people like me. Maybe I shouldn't have used Pokemon? I thought about that but I liked the gifs too much to toss them.

[Flavor Leaf]

Those political as hell reads, though

I’m beginning to feel I might be wrong based on the fact that that reads list just screams scum to me.

Political reads? I'm not disagreeing with you; I don't know what you mean by that and would like to.

Reads created to better your standing within the game. It can be done by town, but generally is scummy.

Like...”profii’s controlling the game right now...I’m going to make sure that he’s a town read so he sees me support him and is Moreno likely to town read me.”

[Flavor Leaf]

Example ^ Profii isn’t in that spot, i know. Hypothetical and theoretical

[Krazy]

You don't like my reads list because you think one of my top 4 scumreads is in the wrong place? Where is profii supposed to be?

[Krazy]

Oh nevermind you confused me

[Krazy]

Any response to my concerns on Naomi? Honestly I was with you on her being scum until she did the weird rambling reads list. I still have some problems with that list (she calls a lot of my scumreads null). But the more I looked at it the more I kinda started thinking 565 looked more townie than scummy. If you're still dead-set on her being scum I can see why you might not like me pushing on Frank and Manatee.

[Flavor Leaf]

I already retracted my Naomi scum read.

And I have issues with the Manatee read, Frank read, and the Flavor read.

I should not be at the top for you, especially considering I’m defending Manatee and Frank.

[Flavor Leaf]

That is a political read. A ploy to try to move me off of you in case of a tunnel.

[Flavor Leaf]

And you’re distracting people with fancy colors.

[Krazy]

People I think are town are wrong all the time. I mean I just spent 150 pages dealing with Ank and I never really stopped thinking she was town... If you think I downgrade my read of you because you're wrong on a few reads then you don't know how I play

[Krazy]

Like you've said Manatee is town but you haven't said why yet. Until you do I simply ignore you and treat you as someone else who is wrong this game, which there is no shortage of at the moment.

[Flavor Leaf]

Eh, I believe you are wrong and are pushing incredibly NAI reads.

I don’t need to argue it with you, though. I just need to talk about it to others.

[Flavor Leaf]

Well I assume Flavor leaf will now take it as an attempted pocket but I guess it might be time to share my reads list.

I kinda wanted to hold off until the parrot was replaced but seems the thread is picking up a bit. yolo

Why would this be an attempted pocket? I was already scum reading, it would just be to change my mind on you.

The pocket talk is buzzword talking to try and defend themselves beforehand, and actin like they “know” what’s going to happen. If you can make sense of things beforehand, it comes off better, even if it’s scummy, which this is.

Krazy’s playing ploy after ploy, and doing it well, but they are all indeed tactics.

[Krazy]

Why is skipping RVS and hardlurking NAI? Why is posting nothing but placeholder votes NAI? Like you're so certain that Manatee and Frank are town but you are not explaining why you reach that conclusion. I have looked at the other games of each player and I have questions about how they're approaching this game. If you think it is scummy to push those slots for that reason then you are misguided. And if you think I'm scummy because I make my lists visually appealing... anyway sure do your thing, whatever man.