Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Flavor Leaf]

Why is it scummy?

[Flavor Leaf]

You ask me the question of NAI, but it’s not scummy to me. I skip out of RVS/lurk out for Day 1 loads of times as town. Why is it immediately scummy?

[Flavor Leaf]

Hell, I’ve lurked out in games until Day 3-4 as town, then joined games and caught scum immediately. Annoying, sure. Scummy? Nah. That’s just easy wagoning, and the amount of traction that was coming through almost guarantees they were mislynches.

[Flavor Leaf]

viewtopic.php?p=8877233#p8877233

Also, to all you fellas who think that Krazy’s Pokémon colorful reads can only come from town.

Check out my Day 1 scum colorful reads list I did in this game, and look at the similarities.

[Krazy]

Because refusing to commit to RVS or to push people with votes indicates you are afraid of the town and more interested in avoiding being lynched then finding scum. This is exactly how Toranaga plays scum and it's fairly similar to how Texcat plays scum (and sometimes? Gamma, but Gamma is a separate case). This is why I shot Toranaga in 2024 and I was correct then. Right now I see Frank playing to a meta that is similar to how he played Serial Killer and similar to how Toranaga plays scum and I'm not seeing any reasons to think he's town. Why is he town?

Frank is not you. You might lurk, you might not lurk, but you do not form townblocks like you have here as scum. You play to different metas, and the only use of meta is understanding how and why a player approaches a game the way they do. It's not just that skipping RVS is ALWAYS scummy, it's that skipping RVS for FRANK is scummy.

[Flavor Leaf]

Why does it indicate you are afraid? And why do you think scum is “afraid of the town”?

I’m more afraid of town when I am town. When I’m scum I think it’s a breeze to just come out with clear thoughts.

You’re pushing all these things, but you’re pushing them as “flaws in play” rather than scum aligned. Poor play doesn’t mean scummy.

[Flavor Leaf]

Sure, meta can be a thing.

Can you link me to where Frank has done the same thing?

[Krazy]

It's in the spoiler for his... you did actually READ the entries right? You saw there is TEXT in the spoilers?

[Flavor Leaf]

That’s interesting you bring up Tora and Texcat. I’ve been scum with Tora before, and they followed my lead the majority of the time, and stood by me with my town leaderness in a game Mulch modded a while back.

Texcat is one of the players that i call out as scum correctly nearly every game I’m in at one point. (Generally, I just wait until like day 3 to read Texcat, and it becomes easy to read her).

So you bring up players who’s scum game I know yet I still don’t feel like Frank is necessarily scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

Why do you assume he plays 3rd party the same as he would Mafia, though?

There’s not even a town PR link. Hell, he could have been trying something new. There’s plenty of reasons and holes in that meta read.

[Sashaddin]

Vote Count - Day 1

Light Ethos (3) - profii #218, Naomi-Tan #554, The Worst RockyHorror #596, ManateeDude #676

The Worst RockyHorror (3) - Krazy #76, Saudade #426, Sashaddin #502, Light Ethos #504

ManateeDude (3) - Sashaddin #4, ManateeDude #6, Crimson97 #18, Doughboy #28, Doughboy #476, Doughboy #631, Krazy #679

We have three wagons forming, that's one too many imho. Personally, I'd jump from The Worst to ManateeDude, mostly for lack of presence.
The ducky has picked up a lot in heat so I'm willing to give him a pass for Day 1.
Light Ethos does not look very suspicious to me so the ManateeDude option seems more strategic.

[Light Ethos]

I think I'm fine to say that I haven't seen anyone do anything that screams scum to me in this thread. If I can recall correctly, the only people who definitively wanted a hammer to come out of their pushes were saudade wanting to hammer the worst and the worst wanting to hammer me. I don't think either of those pushes for a hammer were scum motivated. saudade wanted to push an experienced player to care more about the game than his own life. the worst just got upset and took the path of least resistance by taking his anger out on me, a newer player that had someone with town cred already casing me. Nothing screams scum there.

I can see a reasonable scenario in which Naomi's case on me has scum motivation, but I don't want to jump to the conclusion of shoving her as scum because of it. I don't know if my reaction to her case would be the same if it hadn't been about me, as I have much more information about what she's addressing than I would if it had been about another player who also had a low post count at the time she started.
More importantly though, I can't justify going after a player that's been putting in effort to at least give the appearance of doing something, when there are players that haven't even done that.

Yes, as Flavor said, it's possible for town players to lurk their way through Day 1. That isn't helpful though, and it's even less helpful when there are more than two such players in a game. As my maligned math post shows, the more players you have who fit that description, the harder it is to say that none of them are scum. If at least one of them is scum in the vast majority of games, and if their current actions show no town motivation, then it's hard for me to justify putting a lot of faith behind traces of a scum read I get from having a bad feeling about what an active player is doing without first pressing these other players into expressing actionable opinions on what's gone on in the game.

[profii]

Its totally clear from Krazys section about me that we have miscommunicated - I will clear this up

That was kinda the point of the 2 word thing, to see who put words in my mouth to suit their own agendas and who just let me be. For example, when I said Light Ethos was town, he had the chance to do that but didn’t

I’ll clear up things Krazy said about me and see what he thinks. I’m almost certain we think Wk means something different (I expect I’m wrong because I’m a noob)

Btw im not saying Krazy has put words in my mouth at this point - we will discuss

[Nauci]

Mod Note: Pernicious Parrot has not picked up his prod; I am seeking a replacement for the spot.

[Light Ethos]

VOTE: Krazy

I’m coming in hard when I get home tonight. Get ready

Was that back and forth exchange what you meant by coming in hard?
My takeaway from your side of the exchange is that:
1. You find Krazy to be scummy because he's claiming that some things that you see as NAI are scummy.
2. He gave a read list that attempted to gain some trust with you.

TL;DR for the rest of the post:
1. Nobody should be given a free pass to lurk through Day 1.
2. Day 1 seems like it would be the perfect time for scum to try to mislynch an active town player.

I'm also seeing a sense that from your perspective, Frank and Manatee can't be scum because they have received a lot of attention without posting, meaning that there must be some scum trying to hammer them. You're right that Manatee's play this game could just be bad play. I think it's fallacious to think that it can

only

be bad play. It's also very possible that it's bad play by a mafia member. It's strange to me that you so readily disregard that possibility.

With as unclear of a Day 1 this has been (at least from my perspective), I don't think we have the luxury of absolving either of them.

I also want to push back on the idea that scum always would want to preferentially push inactive players Day 1. While this is a certainly a strategy that I can see being used often, I don't think it's the optimal one.

Spoiler: Reasoning

In the end, mafia wins off of the errors that town players make, forced or unforced. Mafia needs to allow some town players to survive, but they likely want to avoid a WIFOM coinflip to decide the game. At least one of the players they allow to stay alive needs to have enough baggage that they look suspicious. Someone perfect to bring along is someone who lurked their way through Day 1. (I acknowledge that this is probably not as true for 1v1 scenarios.) I also think it's reasonable to assume that the players that avoid the game will be unable to form cases as strong as players who are active and attentive.

Day 1 seems like the perfect time to try to nudge a mislynch on someone who is active. The longer these players stay alive, the more time they have to try to solve the game. If they don't solve the game before they die, their post history becomes a valuable resource when they flip green. The longer they stay alive, the more likely it is that they will end up giving everyone the blueprint to the game before they die. Worse still, it will likely be riskier to kill them off during the day. If mafia goes for the player on Day 1 in a game as undecided as this one, they have plausible deniability by claiming to be a townie who was wrong about their read. We've all been there, right?

To me, the optimal scenario for mafia to push for a Day 1 kill on someone inactive is if it's a policy vote. That way, town gets minimal information about the vote, and every town player has a bit of blood on their hands. I think the only other time they want a Day 1 kill on an inactive player is if town gets too close to finding a scum team, not just an individual mafia player.

All of the above might have been my inexperience talking, but until I get more experience here, it is my opinion.

[profii]

viewtopic.php?p=8877233#p8877233

Also, to all you fellas who think that Krazy’s Pokémon colorful reads can only come from town.

Check out my Day 1 scum colorful reads list I did in this game, and look at the similarities.

Haha that was my inspiration for having a shtick in this game

[profii]

@Krazy - phone posting so excuse not quoting etc, but in response to your read on me
- Saudade - i don’t like his tunnely style rn, it’s NAI, I just don’t like that it comes across later me he won’t consider anything else - could be wrong but otherwise town reading him

- I asked about Naomi because I figured it would be ballsy for scum players to jump straight into confrontation. Didn’t wanna ruin the gimmick though

-maybe I don’t know what WK’ing is - I thought you were softly defending your scum buddy

-I thought you 3 (LE included) were all scummy - I know people don’t like pre flips but idc- I always do it.

- following the theory of scum wouldn’t be ballsy and get into an early 1v1 in the single digit figures of the thread they would probably sit back and see if town are going to lynch themselves - at least 1 of them if not more would. This was aimed at LE - at the time, the post I quoted as “scummiest post” came over a bit IIoA / active lurkery rather than legit not participating (eg parrot) - hence the vote and hence an effort to give the lowest few posters a nudge - surely one will slip if we press.

-I’m very wary about what you are saying about my neighbourhood logic - you quote me as saying there “has” to be scum in the neighbourhood and then you find me saying I was making assumptions? Which is it?
Anyway - my approach - I could be wrong but I can think of 2 scum games of mine where we had a hood dude. One was mafia month where The Worst was adamant I was scum in the hood (I was) but I end gamed and won.
I’m actually amazed The Worst hasn’t picked up on this along with his non-paranoia of me. Anyway to clarify my stance - I would probably go with 2 conclusions.

There is high potential for later wifom over the neighbourhood - so let’s deal with it now. If people aren’t willing to get involved in that, I could potential surmise that TW is hoping I forgot mafia month and also is town reading me to pocket me so I could vote there instead - if that was a scum flip, depending on what TW says about the hood between now and lynch, I’d say we go there next for pressure

[profii]

Ok I just saw TW claimed I need to catch up fully haha

[profii]

Also, I did a skim of Worst’s ISO’s looking to see if he crumbed, and didn’t see anything.

However, scum doesn’t lie about that situation without hard posting it anyways.

Annoying, not scummy.

He did I saw it ages ago

[profii]

sausage i'm telling you i am a bad lynch today. there's 2-3 scum here. if you think one's me, find my partners ;]

This is typically a “I’m a PR or lining up a claim” type deal

[profii]

I don’t like that post by Lighf.

I never urged a vote on Frank. That’s a misrep in the middle there or a mistake.

I’m just reading the LE posts now and he also said I deliberately avoided the active wagons - how he knows that from 2 post style I do not know but interesting

[profii]

Personally I think the optimal play is to deal with the neighbourhood RIGHT NOW

My working theory is 2 hood dudes outed themselves and someone even said “why not masons” I’m assuming a third dude probably posted in the PT “don’t out me yet please” - simple as that

Even then all things considered

3 scum in 13 is a 23% chance of hitting scum today
1 in 3 in the hood is 33% - with the added benefit if we hit scum then we get 1 (poss 2) innos and we keep any kind of protective un-outed so we can hang on to our inno for a while

Personally I think we go for Krazy over Doughboy
Doughboy seemed legit annoyed at me that I wasn’t playing “properly”
Krazy on the other has was straight in the wiki checking for a PR potential in me which seems scummy to me

VOTE: Krazy

given krazy's leg work on manatee I'd rather lynch Manatee over Krazy, He was solely responsible for having me consider his lynch and changed Light ehtos's attitude towards the slot too at least. I think he is more useful that you think and there are better choices for today.

Apparently I’ve missed this... off I go ....

[Light Ethos]

I don’t like that post by Lighf.

I never urged a vote on Frank. That’s a misrep in the middle there or a mistake.

I’m just reading the LE posts now and he also said I deliberately avoided the active wagons - how he knows that from 2 post style I do not know but interesting

Not overly complicated. You made a choice not to jump on one of the wagons that was active at the time. The number of words in your posts is irrelevant to the choice you made to vote for me instead of voting for one of the wagons.

[profii]

Let’s rephrase

Why should I join the active wagons? Why can’t I find scum in my own way ?

[profii]

Personally I think the optimal play is to deal with the neighbourhood RIGHT NOW

My working theory is 2 hood dudes outed themselves and someone even said “why not masons” I’m assuming a third dude probably posted in the PT “don’t out me yet please” - simple as that

Even then all things considered

3 scum in 13 is a 23% chance of hitting scum today
1 in 3 in the hood is 33% - with the added benefit if we hit scum then we get 1 (poss 2) innos and we keep any kind of protective un-outed so we can hang on to our inno for a while

Personally I think we go for Krazy over Doughboy
Doughboy seemed legit annoyed at me that I wasn’t playing “properly”
Krazy on the other has was straight in the wiki checking for a PR potential in me which seems scummy to me

VOTE: Krazy

given krazy's leg work on manatee I'd rather lynch Manatee over Krazy, He was solely responsible for having me consider his lynch and changed Light ehtos's attitude towards the slot too at least. I think he is more useful that you think and there are better choices for today.

Apparently I’ve missed this... off I go ....

You have a point - I like the manatee case.