micro 816-II: pokemon go (open game) (gambe over)
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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profii Jack of All Trades
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Yea I know she probably didn’t - just seeing if you are totally set on lynching me or do I have any chance of convincing you otherwise
Will you at least concede when we see who the scum person is the obvious play for them is no kill mislynch me because they know I’m getting into trouble today so the worst thing to happen is that I get innod as you Maria Koki have to look at each other and the scum among you 3 probably has no idea how close to being outed you are given everything has revolved around me
All I’m saying is if NSG jails any other player tonight after a no lynch, scum pretty much has to try and kill rather than set me up for a mislynch so the no lynch is an optimal strategy
Sure if you want to lynch me tomorrow then fine but I think a no lynch is better
Also - if there is no kill again tomorrow - we should keep no lynching to force scum to try and kill otherwise we win-
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northsidegal Survivor
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it's suboptimal to no-lynch today
assume for the sake of argument that profii was framed. given that town wins if nobody is lynched or killed for three phases, scum (not profii) will eventually be forced to kill me. this leaves us at 4 alive with 1 conftown (profii). that's an EV of 33%.
now assume that we lynch profii today, he flips town, and we go into the night with my jail target being pre-announced. we're at 4 people alive. if there is no kill,thenwe can continue to no-lynch, because even if scum is trying to frame someone again, they will eventually be forced to give up the ruse and kill me, leaving us with 3 alive and 1 conftown (50% EV). if thereisa kill, we're still left at 3 alive with 1 conftown. (50% ev).
all of this is, of course, planning for the worst case scenario, and says nothing about my actual reads on anyone - merely what i think is the best strategy.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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so let's lynch profii and then if that does't work i'll jail maria-
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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actually, profii might be on to something, even though this would take a ridiculous amount of unnecessary time up which i do not approve of personally
if we no lynch with him in the game, we can get a cop clear eventually if nsg is ever shot and she maybe alternates between maria and profii like continually
this guarantees scum has no way out if planned right
thing is this could outright be a distraction from prof, or it could be sth he thought of to get a cop clear.
i am considering this...
cuz like maria and profii are period the only options for nico partner fmpov, even though maria is virtually a nonexistent one in my mind-
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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northsidegal Survivor
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i have already detailed why it is mathematically suboptimal to no-lynch today
in fact, the only way that we can end up in lylowithouta cop clear is by no-lynching today-
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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profii Jack of All Trades
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profii Jack of All Trades
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northsidegal Survivor
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oh and i had already started writing out a very nice detailed elaboration, with capital letters and everything-
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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northsidegal Survivor
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VOTE: profii
jailing maria if profii flips town-
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northsidegal Survivor
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everyone remember to submit fast nights!-
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profii Jack of All Trades
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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profii Jack of All Trades
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profii Jack of All Trades
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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profii Jack of All Trades
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profii Jack of All Trades
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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profii Jack of All Trades
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Do you not believe meIn post 3046, stungun0404 wrote:fmpov if prof ever was to flip town
equals maria —> scum without any shadow of a doubt in my mind
there are quite a few anti associatives between koki and nico, and koki has a relatively town iso anyways-
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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profii Jack of All Trades
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