Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Almost50]

Hello everyone. I'm Frank's replacement, and I'm Town. I do not wish to read 106 pages though, so if there are any important

information

that I should know please fill me in. Thank you

[Mister Rogers]

Welcome! I hope you will reread the game over time as I did. Here is the strategy I used to replace in, it was a bit rough at first but it worked out in the end:
1488

FoS: FL for lurker voting to end the day, Gamma for shameless BW-ing all day long since he replaced in

[Mister Rogers]

@Krazy: You still haven't explained to us why you didn't crumb but yet you expect it from others?

[Mister Rogers]

@Almost: You will certainly need to ISO the following players who all hard claimed:

Worst -- Gunsmith (widely disbelieved)
Crimson -- Doc
Krazy -- Neighbor-Vig
Myself (Doughboy) -- Neighbor

[Flavor Leaf]

Hello everyone. I'm Frank's replacement, and I'm Town. I do not wish to read 106 pages though, so if there are any important

information

that I should know please fill me in. Thank you

VOTE: Unvote

[Flavor Leaf]

@Rogers - that’s just difference in playstyles I feel between us.

Don’t ruin what we got. We’re different, but we can still be friends...

Also, we have ONE DAY now to find a lynch, a little more.

What’s the plan guys?

[Mister Rogers]

Let's wait for the following players to check in: Naomi Tan, Worst, Sauda, Light, Crimson, Frank, Profii

And see if what consensus we can get. Simply everyone should vote their best scum slot.

[Mister Rogers]

Where are you voting FL?

[Almost50]

@Mr R: THANK YOU A MILLION! So this is the game where everybody claims already?? That probably means I won't be shot tonight unless I explicitly claim a PR myself!

P.S. Gamma, Creature & TW are the ones I expect to understand the implied joke here, but I saw TW is being replaced too.. so .. *Shrug*

Anyway, I'll go ISO Gamma first.. can't say it will give me an accurate read on him (since it's not being done in real time) but I'll try. I'm not sure I can read FL either way. He is GOOD at disguising his alignment (but bad at a certain thing that isn't related to this game)

Who else do I know? profii, although I don't claim to have a way to read him either. It looks like I'm going to have to actually play the game and not be lazy, but I doubt I'll be doing that in the next few hours. *Sigh*

Anyway, off to examine the Gamma slot

P-edit: @TL: Thanks for bringing it up!

@Mod: May I request a 24 hrs extension?

Just give me time to read a little ( I still won't be reading

everything

or I would have requested a 72 hrs extension for 100+ pages)

[Almost50]

OK.. Gamma's probably Town here. I don't want to lynch that on D1.

Next: Creature slot

[Mister Rogers]

@Almost: We're going to need fleshing out on that because so far Gamma's replace is underwhelming with simply sheeping/BW-ing with a scummy pred.

[Mister Rogers]

I don't see how you get "town" out of that.

[Light Ethos]

I really did not like the interaction between Rogers and Saudade from 103-104. Really unproductive bickering between two players that are at least lean green from most players in the game right now.

Because your scumreads contradict themselves constantly, if you think the worst is scum, and you do you just wanted to lynch him despite him being PR so you're pretty certain hes scum, you have to assume that I bussed my partner day one for no good reason while players like Flavor Leaf and Krazy were defending him

This is a problem for anyone who wants to both lynch Saudade and who believes that the worst is scum. the worst was an awful bus candidate at the time that Saudade started the push. Saudade fabricated a wagon on him out of nowhere. Yes, it's possible that Saudade then wanted to defend him by saying that we're not killing a claimed power role Day 1. I find it to be incredibly unlikely that he would do that.

[Almost50]

Ugh, Sasha is like my only scumread that didn't claim PR

Is that like "Sasha didn't claim anything"? Or is it "Sasha claimed a VT"??

[Almost50]

OK.. I can't get a read lock on Creature. I would feel bad if I lynched him as Town, but he hasn't exactly town told for me either. Let's call him a null read for now.

Next: TW slot

[Almost50]

new wincon gained: outlive everyone who posts without saying hi to me
{Frank, Manatee, Crimson} and maybe Krazy

Please tell me this didn't roll SK again!

[Light Ethos]

TL;DR for my Day 1 vote pool:

Possible votes:

the worst, Sashaddin, Creature, Gamma

Off-limits:

Mister Rogers, Saudade, Flavor Leaf, Naomi-Tan, profii, Crimson, Krazy, almost

Frank

We need to decide what to do with the worst's slot in terms of who he will investigate if we let him live.

The quick time crunch out of nowhere was a surprise. I compared Creature's ISO and Sashaddin's, and I don't see a substantive difference between the two players' approach to this Day. almost's slot is off limits for me. He will not have enough time to read and to provide content to analyze.

I've posted multiple times about why red!Saudade is very unlikely to me given his choices throughout this day. I'm not voting him today. Also off limits to me are Mister Rogers, Flavor Leaf, profii, Naomi-Tan, Crimson, and Krazy.


I don't buy his claim, and I do believe that his play during Day 1 was anti-town. I'm fine with voting him out. I'm also fine with a vote on Sashaddin, Creature, or Gamma.
I can give reasons for people if you ask, but in the interest of time, I think it's valuable for me to get my thoughts out quickly and then respond later.

[Light Ethos]

I don't buy his claim, and I do believe that his play during Day 1 was anti-town. I'm fine with voting him out.

This refers to the worst.

[Mister Rogers]

I really did not like the interaction between Rogers and Saudade from 103-104. Really unproductive bickering between two players that are at least lean green from most players in the game right now.

Because your scumreads contradict themselves constantly, if you think the worst is scum, and you do you just wanted to lynch him despite him being PR so you're pretty certain hes scum, you have to assume that I bussed my partner day one for no good reason while players like Flavor Leaf and Krazy were defending him

This is a problem for anyone who wants to both lynch Saudade and who believes that the worst is scum. the worst was an awful bus candidate at the time that Saudade started the push. Saudade fabricated a wagon on him out of nowhere. Yes, it's possible that Saudade then wanted to defend him by saying that we're not killing a claimed power role Day 1. I find it to be incredibly unlikely that he would do that.

Remember we dicussed this earlier and even Profii agrees with me. Scum know all the alignments and if they are bussing or not. Before we get any flips, its is PRE-FLIP ASSOCIATIONS which are completely unreliable. We should read both slots independently, if we read them both as scum then there could be bussing but the point is that reads are not certain -- flips are certain (without role madness) and that's the only time that associations work; i.e. POST-FLIP. Its too easy for scum to manipulate town who suffer from lack of information.

[Mister Rogers]

I guess I can consider a Gamma vote. Its quite possible that I now prefer Gamma over Creature; I like how Creature called Gamma out and it wasn't OMGUS. I think we have town Creature and thus a scum Gamma.

[Almost50]

tw is probably town too. Either that or he has a very good scumster coaching him (that would be Flavour Leaf 99% of the time).

P-edit:

@Ethos: scum!tw necessitates scum!FL in my mind. tw isn't capable of faking this kind of play/claim on his own and planning it in advance (he

has

been crumbing a PR alright). Furthermore, a Gunsmith can be found out (if fake) pretty easily, although the Vig outing doesn't help in this regards.

Tell me something (bc I'm ISOing and not reading the thread as a whole): Did the Vig out before or after tw claimed GS?

[Light Ethos]

Remember we dicussed this earlier and even Profii agrees with me. Scum know all the alignments and if they are bussing or not. Before we get any flips, its is PRE-FLIP ASSOCIATIONS which are completely unreliable. We should read both slots independently, if we read them both as scum then there could be bussing but the point is that reads are not certain -- flips are certain (without role madness) and that's the only time that associations work; i.e. POST-FLIP. Its too easy for scum to manipulate town who suffer from lack of information.

I don't fully agree with you on this. While you're absolutely right to say that associations are much better and more reliable when you have more information (post-flip), I think that pre-flip associations are worth considering as long as you consider all possible permutations of the interaction you're examining instead of simply locking down on one that you expect to see. By no means am I suggesting that pre-flip associations should be the main consideration in vote selection Day 1, but I don't have a good reason to exclude that from my consideration process.

Associations are a part of the conscious choices players make when they post. While some choices are spur-of-the-moment, most choices often have some motivation behind them. Looking at the interactions between two players when one is pushing the other can helpful in assessing whether a player is scum or town. For Saudade, I asked the question "Why would Saudade do this to Sashaddin?" I then looked into some possible motivations for each permutation of red and green for both players. It was difficult to come up with strategically sound, high-likelihood reasons for why red!Saudade would push Sashaddin regardless of Sashaddin's alignment.

I admit that I can be wrong about this. Everyone has been fooled by scum at some point in their Mafia career. I do think that completely disregarding pre-flip associations because they're not completely reliable is more harmful than it is helpful. We'll see if I stand by this statement after my 20th Mafia game.

[Light Ethos]

tw is probably town too. Either that or he has a very good scumster coaching him (that would be Flavour Leaf 99% of the time).

P-edit:

@Ethos: scum!tw necessitates scum!FL in my mind. tw isn't capable of faking this kind of play/claim on his own and planning it in advance (he

has

been crumbing a PR alright). Furthermore, a Gunsmith can be found out (if fake) pretty easily, although the Vig outing doesn't help in this regards.

Tell me something (bc I'm ISOing and not reading the thread as a whole): Did the Vig out before or after tw claimed GS?

I am not disregarding the possibility of scum!FL and scum!tw. There are many possible scum teams in my mind, and I will need to see results from today's flip to narrow them down. I didn't see the worst crumb his PR claim. I read his evasiveness as a lack of concern for anything other than his own survival. That's a scum mentality to have, even if you're a power role. He also claimed well before getting to L-1. Why is the worst not capable of fake claiming? Are you just throwing shade, or is that coming from somewhere?

I might have the order wrong, but I do believe that Flavor Leaf heavily suggested that he was a Vig after the Gunsmith claim happened, and then way way way later Krazy claimed Vig and Flavor Leaf said that he had fake claimed earlier.

[Almost50]

I'm shooting Creature tonight regardless of whether we lynch him or not

So, you're gonna shoot his cold corpse if we lynch him??

Also, this is my point: tw has been mentioning the Vig often way before Krazy said he was the Vig. Normally a GS would expect there to be a Vig (so as to give them a false positive). I beg to differ with profii saying something (in post 1086 or somewhere around that) that tw is likely scum to give scum a chance to catch the Vig. I would like to refer him to Donner Party open setup, where a Town Gunsmith (Dietician) exists along with a Scum Team, a Serial Killer and a

Town Vigilante

. I don't see why Scum would be given a GS to out the Vig specifically (a Role Cop is much more likely to out all TPRs).

So, unless the scum team is literally tw, FL & Krazy I don't think tw is scum here based on his claim and the way he "preluded" it.

[profii]

Can you quote where TW crumbed gun smith

Someone made the point that when he said “I’m a bad lynch today” or however he phrased it, doesn’t exactly count