Mini 579 - The Plagues of Egypt Mafia - Over

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

It only makes sense as scum to claim/hint at cop and then claim miller otherwise it has no purpose unless he was gonna claim cop to give up a mafia buddy but he did it with slysly a townie. It was guardians stratergy to claim miller and this is clearly shown by his m.i.l.l.e.r post. Sorry I dont see him as scum peoples.
Can we actualy move on from this and lynch us some propper scum.

Question to all what would scum gain by trying to make us believe Guardian scum if he is town?

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Oh I am not cop and am mildyly suspicious about lord hurs post a couple back looks to me like serious role fishing there.

[Mr Stoofer]

OK, here is the Guardian thing in easy steps.

1. Guardian pretended to be a Cop. If you look at his first ~8 posts, you can see he was pretending to be a Cop. I provided an analysis in this post. Anyway, you don't have to take my word for it, Guardian admitted that he was pretending to be a Cop with a "guilty" result on SlySly.

2. Guardian was not a Cop.

3.

No pro-town player would ever pretend to be a Cop -- with a guilty result on another player -- when they weren't

. That is a simply fact. Not even a Miller would do this. (I guess a Jester might do this, but we know Guardian was not a Jester because the game hasn't ended.)

4. The reason Scum would breadcrumb as a Cop would be so that if they had to claim later, they could claim Cop. Cop is a good claim for a Scum in a theme game -- there may be more than one Cop, with varying sanities; he might be able to convince the Town that there are multiple Cops with varying sanities; there might not be a Cop; or kabenon007 might have been the Cop (and maybe Guardian knew it, as he killed him). In any of these cases Guardian could get away with a Cop claim. The worst that can happen as Scum if you claim Cop is that you find out who the real Cop is, which is a pretty useful thing in a mini game like this.

I have done this precise thing as Scum - breadcrumbed Cop on day 1 so that I could claim to be the Cop later. This is the post where I claimed Cop and made reference to the numerous hints I had left earlier in the game[/url]. It was a no-reveal game so I thought I could get away with the claim even if there was another Cop.

5. I am not sure why Guardian backed out of his Cop lies. I guess he just lost his nerve, especially since he had rather over-played his hand by pretending to be a Cop

with a guilty result

. He probably also noticed that I had worked out that he was breadcrumbing Cop, and got worried that he was being too obvious.

In short

:

• No way pro-Town Guardian would pretend to be a Cop with a guilty result.
  
• Lots of reasons for Scum Guardian to pretend to be a Cop with a guilty result.
  
• Therefore Guardian = Scum

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Sorry Stoofer I dont agree with your hardline conclusions.
Reason to pretend cop as pro town role is if you are a Miller.
For someone who likes to give links to prove your point im sure you will be able to find the how to play miller topic mentioning this.

Why are you selective in which links you use to prove points but blatantly ignore other known ones that go against your point.

Meh my list from day one is still good to me for scum Stoofer Singing and Hur.
Either one I would support a lynch on.

[Mr Stoofer]

Reason to pretend cop as pro town role is if you are a Miller.

I've never ever heard of this (and I strongly strongly disagree). Why don't you give me a link?

[lord_hur]

Oh I am not cop and am mildyly suspicious about lord hurs post a couple back looks to me like serious role fishing there.

I have no idea where you saw role fishing, but it's stupid to give info on cop's identity, like this not-cop claim you just did, especially as it was totally uncalled for.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

I already asked a question related to this to Mr Stoofer, who did not answer it.

I do not understand at all what would be the point for scum to claim cop, as it would be about the best way to give him away to the real cop.

Could someone could clear up this contradiction ? Because that's the main reason I believe Guardian on his miller claim (and it seems I'm about the only one).

I will let others gather what they will from this passage.

[lord_hur]

EBWOP : sorry about my poor wording in my last post, I meant cop breadcrumbing of course, not cop claiming.

OK, here is the Guardian thing in easy steps.

1. Guardian pretended to be a Cop. If you look at his first ~8 posts, you can see he was pretending to be a Cop. I provided an analysis in this post. Anyway, you don't have to take my word for it, Guardian admitted that he was pretending to be a Cop with a "guilty" result on SlySly.

2. Guardian was not a Cop.

3.

No pro-town player would ever pretend to be a Cop -- with a guilty result on another player -- when they weren't

. That is a simply fact. Not even a Miller would do this. (I guess a Jester might do this, but we know Guardian was not a Jester because the game hasn't ended.)

4. The reason Scum would breadcrumb as a Cop would be so that if they had to claim later, they could claim Cop. Cop is a good claim for a Scum in a theme game -- there may be more than one Cop, with varying sanities; he might be able to convince the Town that there are multiple Cops with varying sanities; there might not be a Cop; or kabenon007 might have been the Cop (and maybe Guardian knew it, as he killed him). In any of these cases Guardian could get away with a Cop claim. The worst that can happen as Scum if you claim Cop is that you find out who the real Cop is, which is a pretty useful thing in a mini game like this.

I have done this precise thing as Scum - breadcrumbed Cop on day 1 so that I could claim to be the Cop later. This is the post where I claimed Cop and made reference to the numerous hints I had left earlier in the game[/url]. It was a no-reveal game so I thought I could get away with the claim even if there was another Cop.

5. I am not sure why Guardian backed out of his Cop lies. I guess he just lost his nerve, especially since he had rather over-played his hand by pretending to be a Cop

with a guilty result

. He probably also noticed that I had worked out that he was breadcrumbing Cop, and got worried that he was being too obvious.

In short

:

• No way pro-Town Guardian would pretend to be a Cop with a guilty result.
  
• Lots of reasons for Scum Guardian to pretend to be a Cop with a guilty result.
  
• Therefore Guardian = Scum

Guardian never claimed to have a guilty result.

If I were a miller myself, I would view my own life as less important than the other townies', and thus would try if possible to attract a NK.

Cop breadcrumbing, while certainly not the best thing to do for other reasons, could then be seen as a way to achieve this end, and I could also see an experienced player trying to pull this seemingly good idea off.

On the other hand, I now see how cop breadcrumbing could be interesting... to claim cop later. Problem is, he claimed miller, not cop. The whole cop breadcrumbing for later claiming miller still seems a bit too convoluted for a scum strategy.

To sum it up, I'm still not convinced that Guardian is scum.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

sorry bout the quotes I am a little rusty. As for Mr Stoofer I can find it at the moment but remember reading this somewhere. The guts of it was the best idea (which I agree with) of how to play miller is to get scum thinking you are a power role and thus being the obvious choice for the nk. Scums biggest fear is a cop thus miller stratergy is to put cop tells out there to get nk by scum and thus not bother town.

Agree or dissagree........?
I see the above as pretty sound logic of how to play a Miller role but given guardian played it badly.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

oh geez I am not on form EBWOP: cant find it

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

poor wording I believe could have been very intentional in my attempted quote to attract the response from a possible real cop. Yeah seems a rather grand conclusion but it is something that struck me as odd is all.

[Mr Stoofer]

I can't understand a word tvod is saying.

@lord_hur

: Guardian was pretending to have a guilty result on SlySy. That was how I worked out he was (pretending to be) a Cop. His breadcrumbs were breadrumbs that he had a guilty result on SlySly.

See my analysis in this post; then read the next two posts and you will see that Guardian admits that he was pretending to have a guilty result on SlySly. He claimed that the reason he did that was: "I wanted to see what would happen if I alluded obviously to being cop, most optimally hoping for odd reactions for SlySly that pointed to my random choice being correct, us lynching SlySly, and me being nightkilled".

[lord_hur]

I can't understand a word tvod is saying.

His first paragraph in post 458 is essentially my 2nd sentence in post 457.

The rest is gibberish to me as well.

@lord_hur

: Guardian was pretending to have a guilty result on SlySy. That was how I worked out he was (pretending to be) a Cop. His breadcrumbs were breadrumbs that he had a guilty result on SlySly.

See my analysis in this post; then read the next two posts and you will see that Guardian admits that he was pretending to have a guilty result on SlySly. He claimed that the reason he did that was: "I wanted to see what would happen if I alluded obviously to being cop, most optimally hoping for odd reactions for SlySly that pointed to my random choice being correct, us lynching SlySly, and me being nightkilled".

Ok, but on the other hand, pretending to have a guilty result is the most obvious (I did not say "clever") solution to breadcrumb cop. I don't see it contradicting the "miller willing to attract a NK" theory.

[HackerHuck]

Wouldn't a miller just want to appear the most towniest so they would be nightkilled?

Hinting at or claiming cop are two things likely to get the real cop eager to push your lynch, which is something that the scum want to see - the real cop hinting at his identity. I don't agree with Mr Stoofer's hardline on this one, but I find it to be more of a scum play than a real miller play.

I say we get back to looking for scum in those who are still living. This game theory discussion is getting us away from the topic at hand.

Now I'm stuck thinking the people I disagree with are scummy.

Looking at the player list, I need to hear from PyroDwarf and Shin.

Prods please on those two

unless I'm so tired that I missed them posting this game day.

Reactions to this discussion that are not making feel good - from Mr Stoofer and Hadsgaf. Both TVoD and Lord_hur are consistent, but the jury's still out on whether that means anything.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Im trusting my gut now on things as it has been very acurate lately. Mr Stoofer Lord_Hur or Singing are all good choices for lynch today can I get peoples feelings about any/all of these people.

[Singing Librarian]

Vote: Musher333

for the reasons previously explained.

@TVOD - I don't find lord_hur scummy in the slightest and I don't get a particularly strong vibe either way from Mr Stoofer. I do agree that the long discussion between the three of you over claiming, breadcrumbing and millerishness is distracting. We can not know for certain what Guardian's alignment is at the moment, so we need to move on without that bit of confirmation. We all have our opinions on the matter, but we need to continue the search for scum rather than picking over corpses.

[Mr Stoofer]

@HackerHuck: you don't mention Musher333 in your post, which I find surprising. What is you opinion on him, bearing in mind he seemed to know that it was Scummy to defend Guardian?

[HackerHuck]

Good point Mr Stoofer and one that I did not pick up on. In reviewing his posts, I also note how he was not pushing for a Guardian lynch and was pretty persistent in his attempts to tie Mr Stoofer to Guardian. All of that would point to scum behaviour is Musher didn't know about the no-reveal and Guardian is scum.

Bravo, but I'm very nervous that I'm being sent down the false path. You seemed to lay that out for me quite nicely without making it too obvious.

[Musher333]

Good point Mr Stoofer and one that I did not pick up on. In reviewing his posts, I also note how he was not pushing for a Guardian lynch and was pretty persistent in his attempts to tie Mr Stoofer to Guardian. All of that would point to scum behaviour is Musher didn't know about the no-reveal and Guardian is scum.

Bravo, but I'm very nervous that I'm being sent down the false path. You seemed to lay that out for me quite nicely without making it too obvious.

What do you mean by to point to scum behaviour is musher, that doesn't make gramatical sense.

[Mr Stoofer]

@undo

: Please can you replace PyroDwarf and ShinHatsubai.

@Musher333

: I think he meant to say: "All of that would point to scum behaviour

if

Musher didn't know about the no-reveal and Guardian is scum"

@everyone

: How do you propose we move this game forward?

[lord_hur]

Hmm... personally, I think one of the things that would benefit town the most would be to understand how this partial-reveal thing works, why SlySly's role was revealed but not the others'.

[Singing Librarian]

Stoofer, I'm at a loss. Until we have alignment reveals, it's very hard to know how to move forward, as it seems we're unlikely to get any sort of consensus on what's been going on.

It seems that we have few, if any, strong leads and we're seriously floundering.

[undo]

Not voting:

HackerHuck, hasdgfas, lord_hur, Musher333, PyroDwarf, Shin Hatsubai

With 9 alive, it's

5 to lynch

I am not being successful in finding a replacement for Shin Hatsubai. Will also try to get a replacement for PyroDwarf if he doesn't respond to his prod.

[PyroDwarf]

sorry guys, limited computer acsess+ pregnant woman = not alot of time for mafia. I am sorry but I am going to have to ask that I be replaced in this game. I havent been following it, and it kinda died there. Good luck every one.

[Mr Stoofer]

Stoofer, I'm at a loss. Until we have alignment reveals, it's very hard to know how to move forward, as it seems we're unlikely to get any sort of consensus on what's been going on.

It seems that we have few, if any, strong leads and we're seriously floundering.

We've got almost 20 pages of stuff here (which used to be the average length of a whole mini game). If you can't find any leads in that then you are Scum or you should quit the game. Seriously. What is the point of even playing this game if you can't find

anything

in 20 pages to take a punt on?

The same goes to everyone else who isn't voting at the moment.