Open 736: Diffusion of Power - Game Over

[Music and Mail]

So if you think that me being town is even in consideration, you're implicitly saying that you agree that Skitter30 is scum.

Skitter... probably isn't scum, just being pocketed tbh

:eyes emoji:

You do realize that you're pushing a narrative that becomes a scumclaim fairly soon, right?

[implosion]

i'm not pushing a narrative, just calling out bullshit

[Almost50]

A50 if you're going to not vote Implo I'm 1v1ing you as soon as he dies and flips scum. You can make your decision where you stand there.

You are free to do as you wish. Implo is off the table for me today.

[implosion]

To be clear, the bullshit here is you saying "I always get my read on skitter correct by the end of day one, therefore if you currently think i am town, you are obliged to currently think skitter is scum" when it is not yet the end of day one.

[Music and Mail]

So that we have this all in one place:

Almost50

has claimed N1 doctor and will be targeting

Music and Mail

. If we die, Almost50 is immediately lynched.

Music and Mail

has claimed N1 doctor as well and will be targeting

CreativeMod1

. If CreativeMod1 dies, Music and Mail is immediately lynched.

CreativeMod1

has claimed N1 cop as well and will be targeting

Music and Mail

. If they claim a result on anyone else, they are immediately lynched.

Good deal gents!

In exchange for having cops being leashed onto me (which I fucking loathe since my best asset as either alignment is the fact that I'm obvtown if you ignore that I'm obvtown as both alignments) I want

to be able to lead lynches with the docs leashed onto me until I lead a

single

mislynch. 1.

[Music and Mail]

To be clear, the bullshit here is you saying "I always get my read on skitter correct by the end of day one, therefore if you currently think i am town, you are obliged to currently think skitter is scum" when it is not yet the end of day one.

It was never about that, it was about Almost50's reaction to it.

[Almost50]

As this information is now public, I'd like to hear from the town who I should investigate as I'm not 100% sure

Music and Mail is your assigned target then.

You get protected by them and I protect them, ensuring the survival of the both of you.

Now here's the trick, my friend: You've just set yourself for the lynch on D2. Why? To ensure your check on M & M is for real (I won't lose to scum faking Cop on scum. Sorry!).

If you do flip Town M&M will be confirmed a town slot and all Doctors can protect them from then on.

If yours is a scum flip though, guess what?

[implosion]

I don't care. You aren't allowed to use explicitly false and misleading rhetoric to push your points, and I'm going to call it out as bullshit if you do.

[Music and Mail]

Nope, we're not lynching CreativeMod on D2. I get to lead the lynches until I flip town, which won't be D2. Honestly I'll probably mislynch on D3, I don't have a clear picture of third scum.

Please stop trying to line up lynches on town, Almost50, it's not becoming

I don't care. You aren't allowed to use explicitly false and misleading rhetoric to push your points, and I'm going to call it out as bullshit if you do.

I mean, go ahead. I can't be lynched

[Music and Mail]

(If there is concerns about CreativeMod, the proper play is to then have people cop him which confirms both alignments since by then there aren't going to be 3 scum.)

[Almost50]

I want to be able to lead lynches with the docs leashed onto me until I lead a single mislynch. 1.

I'll give you that once you're confirmed. How about that?

[Music and Mail]

Hell no.

I'm getting a scum lynch.

I don't trust town to trust my reads after I'm dead.

[Almost50]

Nope, we're not lynching CreativeMod on D2. I get to lead the lynches until I flip town, which won't be D2.

Not in a million years. Creative needs to be flipped to get you to conf!town status. Nothing less will make me trust you. Thank you very much.

P.S. he'd effectively be a VT by then IF he is a Cop anyway. It's much better than pushing someone we don't know their role and having them claim it. He'd be an outed Cop who has already used his ability.

[implosion]

we're not lynching anyone for stupid mechanical reasons like that.

[Music and Mail]

And frankly to not use dishonest rhetoric is gamethrowing.

Why?

Because people overestimate their abilities.
If you asked most people, they'd say that their scumreads are something in the round of 50-60% likely to flip scum
when the truth is most people on ms have reads that are close to par (scumreads are no more likely to flip scum than average).

So if I came out with an honest appraisal of my reads on people, no one would take it seriously... because they think that their reads are better than 60%.
I've deathtunneled people on 50% and been right about 50% of the time and don't have regrets on it because it's upped my winrate compared to when I only deathtunneled when I actually knew for sure.

If I came out and said I think those people are 50% scum, everyone would laugh and continue to do their own thing and focus on their own reads.
Because they don't actually realize how good an objective 50/50 shot of hitting scum is.

If I had to use percentages of flips, and I am going to accurately now because it's no longer really important since I'm sure I'll get everyone on board now that I'm being copped

Implo 80%
A50 70%
Skitter ~45%

The highest Skitter ever was for me was 60% and that is a damn good read to have and be willing to push on.
For the record, I have had true 100% reads on people and when I have 100% reads on people I generally make that super clear, but this is more than good enough.

ot in a million years. Creative needs to be flipped to get you to conf!town status. Nothing less will make me trust you. Thank you very much.

P.S. he'd effectively be a VT by then IF he is a Cop anyway. It's much better than pushing someone we don't know their role and having them claim it. He'd be an outed Cop who has already used his ability.

I'm not letting you take a free mislynch on town, sorry. There are cops to cop him and once there's only 2 scum remaining, the game is easy.

[Music and Mail]

You can only rly be honest in mafia with people who are honest with themselves which is... very few people

[Almost50]

(If there is concerns about CreativeMod, the proper play is to then have people cop him which confirms both alignments since by then there aren't going to be 3 scum.)

This wastes our time, gives way for an additional mislynch, and gives scum a window to hunt down more Cops. We don't know if there is another N1 Cop (chances are dim, and IF THERE IS ONE PLEASE DO NOT CLAIM).

We don't know if there's a N2 Cop, and even if we did we don't know if there's a N2 Doctor to protect them, and even if we did that two we don't know they're not going to get shot on N1 (flips do not show what Night the role is supposed to act). So, let's say we have a N3 Cop out there. This means scum have 2 nights to hunt for them, and IF both of you and Creative are really Town then the shooting pool is already reduced for scum to 7. 1 mislynch today and it's 6. They shoot one of those and it's down to 5. A mislynch on D2 and it's down to only 4 targets for scum to shoot from. Then we have D3 with another potential mislynch (I'm working on worst case scenario) and now they have 3 to pick their NK from.

Now why the hell would we want to go throw all this when it's much more simple to just lynch the Cop with the result, thus ensuring none of those

still in the shooting pool

is removed, AND getting you confirmed status to take over the leadership of this poor town?

[implosion]

This is quickly turning into a commentary on various forms of government.

[Music and Mail]

Because I'm not waiting until day 3 to start leading lynches, no-longer-almost-50.

[Almost50]

Hell no.

I'm getting a scum lynch.

I don't trust town to trust my reads after I'm dead.

Well, you won't be dead tonight, that's for sure.

[Music and Mail]

The best mafia games are mafia games that are predominantly meta-analyses of the game mafia and of human nature and leadership in general.

[Music and Mail]

Almost50, let's say
you were town and skitter was town and I was town and Implosion was scum
who do you think the remaining 2 scum are?

[Almost50]

we're not lynching anyone for stupid mechanical reasons like that.

then I won't be protecting M & M tonight to start with, and if that leads to my own mislynch, so be it. I'd rather play right and lose than win by playing this the wrong way. (Where is Mathdino to help me out here. He's the master of open-setups playing strategies).

[Music and Mail]

we're not lynching anyone for stupid mechanical reasons like that.

then I won't be protecting M & M tonight to start with, and if that leads to my own mislynch, so be it. I'd rather play right and lose than win by playing this the wrong way. (Where is Mathdino to help me out here. He's the master of open-setups playing strategies).

Oh I see, you were looking for excuses to get out of this arrangement. Okay, that makes sense given that you'd just be straight up throwing the game.

[Music and Mail]

And frankly the -clear- right way to play the game is to then have CreativeMod copped because the 3 of us can't all be scum. And Mathdino would agree with that.