Not voting: Eragon 1613, Keyser Söze 1898
The deadline for Day 3 is 6:27 pm CT on Thursday, October 4, in (expired on 2018-10-04 19:27:24).
Her s/read of Eragon deepens by the end (votes there).In post 1063, Ausuka wrote:{Nauci, Irrelephant, Keyser}
{nsg, (will just trust nauci on this particular read since I'm low on towns anyway) dunnstral}
{Eragon, the worst, Toranga}
{reundo}
about here, i'm probably missing something
you are too niceIn post 1921, Nauci wrote:Pivoting to new viable mislynch targets as scum is an art form and I've only seen Irrelephant11 do it with absolute grace on this site
In post 1924, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 117, Dunnstral wrote:I mean it's not worse than a regular game at 3 people aliveIn post 53, GameNBurger wrote:We have a watcher no matter what and a base 1/3 of finding scum is in fact worse than 1/2 bass chance of finding scumIn post 23, Dunnstral wrote:We end up at 4 people alive but 1 person is confirmed town (watcher) or there's a cc
So it's not worse
Unless you’re talking about something else I’m not reading because this doesn’t exactly communicate the idea clearly
----
Keyser I don't think I caught you in the game we played, not sure why you think I should be "taking lead" today either
This is bad preflip stuff and you have to jump to a lot of conclusions to get to this point - also it's not warranted at this timeKeyser Söze wrote: If Dunnstral flips red I would actually wanna put Irrelephant under closer inspection (i.e ill-timed/ill-formed distancing attempt). Or vice versa. I've enjoyed talking to Irrelephant11 so he's on the green side of null so far.
VOTE: Sesq
This is a good place to put a serious vote
In post 128, Dunnstral wrote:Can you explain why this is suspicious?In post 121, Keyser Söze wrote:weird choice of posts to share comments on:
- first one about set-up talk
- second one about a previous game
- third one about early D1 pre-flip paranoia
- unexplained vote
These three posts read town!Keyser to meIn post 154, Dunnstral wrote:If you're confused about my sesq vote then you're not seeing something in the ~5 posts they had when I voted them?
They voted Keyser in rvs, then followed it up by shading their opening post and then post 80 where they keep their vote on keyser while saying some contradictory things and they seem to be focused only on keyser
This to me says town!Reundo. I don't think volxen shades Reundo without a vote so carelessly (not to mention Reundo being a big reason volxen flipped) unless their only pre-game plan was "bus until one of us is dead, then ride the towncred infinitely" which is an option but not one I'm considering at F7In post 237, volxen wrote:It’s been somewhat hard to try and get reads on everyone since the game started out with a lot of activity in the beginning and then quickly died way down, but here are some preliminary reads that I have so far:
Town Reads:
Keyser - I actually like that he started the game by asking about hypoclaiming in 13, it showed that right off the bat he wanted to strategize on how to potentially make things more difficult for the scumteam. This is only my second game on this site so I don’t have any firsthand experience with hypoclaiming or its effectiveness, but I think it’s not likely that a member of the scumteam would suggest this as a tactic, since it could, theoretically, allow the watcher to reveal who they got a guilty on while making it more difficult for the scumteam to identify the real watcher.
Overall, I feel like he is someone that has been genuinely trying to gamesolve and move the game forward. He hasn’t done anything that comes across as scummy to me.
Null Reads:
northsidegal – I’m not really sure what to make of the whole comma’s thing. It seems like a stretch, but maybe she will have more to say about it.
GameNBurger – As I mentioned in 125, GNB is currently a null read for me as most of his content is about the math proof, not wanting to be townread for the math proof, hypoclaiming, and lurking. I originally asked him why he felt the need to go out of his way to tell all of us not to townread him in 104, as I found this a bit suspicious and thought his response to my question might potentially be alignment indicative. However, I found his response in 108 to be fairly neutral, and not enough in and of itself to make me lean towards townreading him or scumreading him. Of course, he is being replaced so I will have to see what his replacement does, but for now this slot is still null for me.
Scum Reads:
2.718 – I really didn’t like his post-RVS opening in 91. I feel like he tried to completely misrepresent what Keyser really meant when he said that he didn’t want to talk about hypoclaiming/setup past page 1, and even after Keyser clarified this in 92 (that he wasn’t “forbidding” discussion but rather that he didn’t want to partake in it himself), 2.718 still continued to press the issue in 101.
I also didn’t like that in 91 2.718 was quick to side with Reundo in the Keyser vs Reundo argument that was going on at the time. 2.718 made the comment here that “Reundo's 46 is a little annoying but I like how he looked ateveryone”. At the time, Reundo only had two posts, 46 and 50, in which he mainly focused on attacking Keyser, with only brief references made to Sesq, GameNBurger, and northsidegal in 50. 2.718’s post made it sound like Reundo was taking a balanced look at “everyone”, when in reality he was primarily just hammering down on Keyser. I feel like this was a very weak reason for 2.718 to jump in so quickly to side with Reundo.
I also find his town read of Reundo questionable in 151. He gave him a town score of 4.5, and all he really had to say was that Reundo’s post in 119 was “great”, without stating why he thought it was great or pro-town. So once again, he is defending Reundo without really providing any explanation or reasoning. And then in 182, he literally says “I see nothing that is worth my attention”, as if he is simply not interested in trying to find scum anymore.
VOTE: 2 718281828459
though this maybe says Reundo should get a closer look idkIn post 280, volxen wrote:Fair question. I only included those four reads because It’s honestly been hard to get reads on people in this game. However, Sesq and Toranaga are now also scumreads for me, largely due to the points that I brought up in 254. 2.718 is still a scumread for me, and I believe it is very likely that there is at least one scum among {2.718, Sesq, Toranaga}. I will reiterate all of this in an updated readslist post that I will be making soon.In post 256, Irrelephant11 wrote:@Volxen in your previous readslist why did you include more nullreads than scum or town reads?
Reundo is someone that I would like to get a read on, but I’ve been having a very difficult time trying to read him. IREALLYdidNOTlike the way he started this game in 46. But I’m not sure if his interactions (and arguments) with Keyser are SvT or TvT (Keyser is still a townread for me). The last time I went through his ISO and reviewed his interactions with Keyser, I ended up just getting really frustrated because I couldn’t get a read on him one way or another. I’m going to review Reundo’s content again, and hopefully I will catch something that I may have missed the first time around.
Anyways, that’s just a brief update on where I am at reads-wise. I know our deadline is coming up soon, so I plan to post an updated readslist by tomorrow.
Anyone have thoughts on this post? I can't decide how to read itIn post 790, Dunnstral wrote:Why do you call out to Reundo here?In post 784, Keyser Söze wrote:@Reundo - help me with Toranaga and Ausuka.
Both can’t be scum... so either both town, or one scum?
This actually seems sorta svt, maybe I'm overtunneling the duck?In post 957, Dunnstral wrote:Go back to sleep ducky you're wrong
In post 1360, Dunnstral wrote:feels kind of detached from the gameIn post 1355, Keyser Söze wrote:@Dunn - why do you suspect Eragon?
Yeah this is survivalism eragon can be conftown for at least this game day for the same reason Nauci is town for sesq's d1 wagon
In post 247, Reundo wrote:In post 245, Dunnstral wrote:Who was town reading Volxen?You were? Also 2.718 in his reads list. What's not compelling about my case?In post 193, Dunnstral wrote:Volx looks town to me
These two posts townclear Reundo for meIn post 1266, Reundo wrote:I'm back.
I think I was town-reading Dunn at some point during D2, but going back through his ISO I'm a bit less confident on that. I'm still hesitate about lynched him, mostly surrounding his interactions with volxen D1. Dunn was pretty strapped for some town-cred during D1, so I don't really think that as scum he'd want to defend his already scummy looking partner -- it'll basically lock in his lynch as soon as volxen's lynched. Even though it seemed like attention was shifting more to Sesq during the latter half of D1, there was still a fairly probable chance that volxen would still be lynched, so him doubling down on the sesq lynch -- even going as far as to town-read his own partner -- didn't seem like the most optimal scum plan. I'd feel as scum he'd be more inclined to bus his partner there and try to reap some town-cred instead of further digging his grave by associating himself with volxen so heavily. It's also clear he has no intentions of presenting himself as towny going into D2, which makes him hard to read admittedly, but also doesn't fall much in line with a scum agenda. Still, there are a few things about him that are a bit iffy, such as that time he almost seemed to forgot he even town-read volxen. Also, him complaining about Sesq question dodging while also dodging my question about how Sesq's question dodging was scum-indicative was also pretty yuck. I feel he has a decent enough chance of flipping town regardless, though.
Northsidegal can be credited with starting the momentum behind the counter-wagon on Sesq (Dunn was also voting Sesq, but that was before the counter-wagon on volxen and no one seemed to really care about his reasoning). I guess starting a counter-wagon to the wagon on your scum-buddy could be scum-indicative, but in that scenario I feel scum would just be content to see their partner lynched there. Being the front of a wagon she'd know would flip town (unless the pair is north/sesq/volx... yuck) would already not be a good look for her, but if the attention would ever divert back to volxen (which it did) then it'd make her look worse, and I don't see any scum agenda in putting herself in a lose-lose situation like that. Her reasons for town-reading volxen were plausible, and it would make sense why she'd want to lynch Sesq if she under-performed in comparison to her last town game. It's a bit suspicious that her peak moments of game-solving came right when volxen was about to be lynched, but it also coincides with the worst replacing in so idk. She also didn't seem to care about me town-reading Sesq, so that's another knock against me, but in a nutshell I think scum wouldn't be inclined to stick her head out as much as she did.
I still think Ausuka is a good lynch. My biggest town-points from her were because of her reads-list since I didn't see much scum motivation in town-reading a lot of the potential lynch pool, but that slowly evaporated when she showed she was willing to back down from e read because "people disagreed with her" and that she was willing to hop onto the Sesq wagon despite her tr on them because it was probably trash. The associations between her and volxen are also plausible from a scum persepctive -- she initially thought volxen was "active lurking" in her reads list, which gave her a good enough reason to bus volxen when it was clear he was about to be lynched, then when attention shifted to Sesq she decided her partner was no longer at much risk for being lynched so she jumped back onto Sesq. She later gave a semi-scumread of volxen later on, which gave her another excuse to bus him when lynching volxen once again became the hip new thing. As far as her D2 goes, her vote on me would almost be too bad to come from scum but it almost seems like she's sr'ing me for sr'ing her since I did voice some concerns about her just before then.
Most of that is going based off of just D1 so I might need to do a re-read to refresh my thoughts, but in a nutshell I'm most hesistant against a northsidegal lynch, semi-hesistant against a Dunn lynch, and not really that hesitant against an Ausuka lynch as well. I feel that people are almost too eager to lynch Ausuka though, so that's throwing me off a little, so I might consider starting a counter-wagon at some point. Also, Nauci is oozing town, and that's after considering possible buddying with regards to her high praises of me (which I appreciate a lot, fwiw ), so everyone suspecting her is probably sus af.