Mini Normal 2033: Dolphins (Game Over)

[Tommy]

You still think Doughboy is scum after the mod's intervention?

[Flubbernugget]

This is interesting with two competing wagons though.

You should say more to this because they both look like lynchbait cws to me

It'll be better to analyze after flips. But it's interesting because it provides a lot of information to work with from D1

Ok so this post just rubs me the wrong way. You wanna lynch people to examine their behavior after a flip?

PEdit- speak of the devil. Answer please

Hey man this was my shtick first

[Flubbernugget]

I dont like the way you're bouncing between me an prohawk though

It really looks like you dont care who gets lynched

[Flubbernugget]

P-EDIT: No, to make pre-flip associations will lead you down the wrong road most often that not. I want to examine wagons and trains after people alignments are known. I'm not sure where you came up with the assumption that I want to lynch people to examine their behavior after a flip? I don't think you understood what I meant there? IE: Flubbernugget is using the two wagons as two town-wagons to scum-hunt BEFORE he actually KNOWS that they are both town wagons, which will provide false results should one of the wagons actually be SCUM.

Wanting flips doesn't excuse you from your sparse scumhunting today. We can't use those flips to analyze *you* otherwise.

I'm not using the wagons to scum hunt. I town read them as two toxic players at each other's neck and then looked for scum elsewhere

[Tommy]

Thank you for choosing Tommy's Unofficial Vote Count:

• GuerillaWoo - Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, EzekelRAGE
  EzekelRAGE - Doughboy
  ProHawk - Flubbernugget, Tommy, wilky, GuerillaWoo
  Flubbernugget - Saudade, Toranaga
  Tommy - ProHawk

Toranaga, what happened? You made this big case on ProHawk. Flubbernugget was null to you. Where did your vote come from?

[Alchemist21]

I think Prohawk’s posts are scummy while Flubber’s are Towny.

[Tommy]

But you still feel Guerilla is the better lynch?

[ProHawk]

Can you explain what you mean by confirmation bias there?

In this particular context it's that I'm town and scum is jumping on my lynch which was originally pushed by Flubber

[Alchemist21]

Yes. The one thing that gives me pause on Guerilla was his earlier threat to self-hammer but I don’t know how serious he was about that and I’ve been mulling over whether that alone outweighs everything I scumread him for.

[ProHawk]

The hesitation to Lynch me is intriguing, I'm pretty sure everyone and their dog has called me scum. Incorrectly for what it's worth.

[ProHawk]

....probably waiting for the deadline excuse

[Toranaga]

Thank you for choosing Tommy's Unofficial Vote Count:

• GuerillaWoo - Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, EzekelRAGE
  EzekelRAGE - Doughboy
  ProHawk - Flubbernugget, Tommy, wilky, GuerillaWoo
  Flubbernugget - Saudade, Toranaga
  Tommy - ProHawk

Toranaga, what happened? You made this big case on ProHawk. Flubbernugget was null to you. Where did your vote come from?

he keeps calling himself town all the time, I find it towny

I'd lynch him in a heartbeat though

[Doughboy]

Can you explain what you mean by confirmation bias there?

In this particular context it's that I'm town and scum is jumping on my lynch which was originally pushed by Flubber

that isn't what confirmation bias means...

if I wasn't locked on rage, i'd vote you also. You have done nothing and now you are under pressure you respond aggressively while still doing nothing.

[Doughboy]

Can you explain what you mean by confirmation bias there?

In this particular context it's that I'm town and scum is jumping on my lynch which was originally pushed by Flubber

that isn't what confirmation bias means...

if I wasn't locked on rage, i'd vote you also. You have done nothing and now you are under pressure you respond aggressively while still doing nothing.

[ProHawk]

Did toranga throw a vote down on me?

P-edit stop being a pussy and vote me then. Damn

[Saudade]

nah we're lynching the nugget

[Tommy]

stop being a pussy and vote me then

Uh huh.

Got an associative tell for you all: I suggest that Toranaga's behaviour strengthens the case on ProHawk.

Toranaga posted a lot of stuff about how ProHawk is scum. Then ProHawk made a major swerve in approach. Then Toranaga did the same. My theory is:

1) Toranaga arrives and sees that ProHawk's play has been scummy.
2) Toranaga tells ProHawk to change his approach and warns him that he (Toranaga) will need to distance himself.
3) Toranaga proceeds to trash ProHawk's play in the game thread.
4) ProHawk makes an abrupt and unconvincing change in tone, which attracts votes and makes him the leading wagon. Toranaga hasn't anticipated this, and now has a difficult choice.
5) Toranaga elects not to bus his partner, choosing the unpalatable option of jumping on a wagon that he'd hitherto set up as a null read.

[Toranaga]

stop being a pussy and vote me then

Uh huh.

Got an associative tell for you all: I suggest that Toranaga's behaviour strengthens the case on ProHawk.

Toranaga posted a lot of stuff about how ProHawk is scum. Then ProHawk made a major swerve in approach. Then Toranaga did the same. My theory is:

1) Toranaga arrives and sees that ProHawk's play has been scummy.
2) Toranaga tells ProHawk to change his approach and warns him that he (Toranaga) will need to distance himself.
3) Toranaga proceeds to trash ProHawk's play in the game thread.
4) ProHawk makes an abrupt and unconvincing change in tone, which attracts votes and makes him the leading wagon. Toranaga hasn't anticipated this, and now has a difficult choice.
5) Toranaga elects not to bus his partner, choosing the unpalatable option of jumping on a wagon that he'd hitherto set up as a null read.

[Alchemist21]

stop being a pussy and vote me then

Uh huh.

Got an associative tell for you all: I suggest that Toranaga's behaviour strengthens the case on ProHawk.

Toranaga posted a lot of stuff about how ProHawk is scum. Then ProHawk made a major swerve in approach. Then Toranaga did the same. My theory is:

1) Toranaga arrives and sees that ProHawk's play has been scummy.
2) Toranaga tells ProHawk to change his approach and warns him that he (Toranaga) will need to distance himself.
3) Toranaga proceeds to trash ProHawk's play in the game thread.
4) ProHawk makes an abrupt and unconvincing change in tone, which attracts votes and makes him the leading wagon. Toranaga hasn't anticipated this, and now has a difficult choice.
5) Toranaga elects not to bus his partner, choosing the unpalatable option of jumping on a wagon that he'd hitherto set up as a null read.

But why would Toranaga have brought thatmuch attention to his partner when nobody else really cared about ProHawk at the time? That’s fixing what ain’t broke and Toranaga doesn’t strike me as the type of person to make such a mistake.

[Tommy]

Because it's not just 'at the time' that Toronaga is worried about. Early distancing can give you a sweet legacy in the endgame when your less competent partner does finally get himself lynched.

[Alchemist21]

He had some pretty strong and confident language in his Prohawk scumread which isn’t something I’d expect from someone trying to distance without bussing.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Tommy

966 is the scummiest post in the whole game imo.

[Tommy]

You think my theory is so wrong that I can't possibly believe it?

[Toranaga]

today I learned the word "hitherto"


"until now or until the point in time under discussion."

can't wait to use it in a mafia game

[Doughboy]

VOTE: Tommy

966 is the scummiest post in the whole game imo.

no it isn't. not by a long shot.

you have never had a paranoia moment before? While I don't think his scenario is actually what is going on, it very well could be a possibility. Toranga backing off after making very good points to lynch hawk does seem weird.


You were one of my strongest town reads and with 1 post you flushed it all down the drain. such a shame.