Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Mister Rogers]

I believe the criteris is: "The scummiest person not being lynched" which is why I have chosen Gamma.

[Mister Rogers]

Hey FL, I found your alt:

[Performer]

I also want Performer and really hope he flips red, because then it puts my mind to ease for good regarding Rogers. I mean, I gave him slack for defending Crimson, but if profii is also scum I'm PLing Rogers for his defence of profii based on a "3rd vote on scum wagon which he changed soon after".

In other words I could see it being profii+Rogers but it would make me laugh at myself being the VI here.

The problem is, when I get lynched today due to poe & other arguments, scum is just going to have gamm/profi/rogers alive. What then?

I'm absolutely certain there's at least 1 more fake claim in the pr claims. Absolutely - and it's between nm & rogers. In fact, based on what's transpired with rogers contributing compared to nm, I'm starting to think it should be nm I need to be voting.

And iirc, GE voted nm, prof voted GE....then GE could be town while it's prof & rogers as the last 2?
I can't see scum realistically trying to bus today. really can't think of a reason for them to do so, hence my thought process on that.

I think my play yesterday was Crim/TW//Krazy but Saudade was making so much noise about not lynching PR claims

I’m doing a lot of setup spec but I don’t actually know where to go today - I think it’s essential we pick a lynch which forces scum to also kill somewhere that helps PoE tomorrow

Gut feels is Performer would be no problem but need to check

Despite my wondering if prof is actually scum, a post like this I do agree with - the part about forcing scum to kill somewhere that helps poe, though it will still be tough. On a related note, nm is hardly one to go with what we recommend, so....if we risk leaving him alive to checks someone, regardless of alignment he might just check someone of his own choosing, so wouldn't that leave us in the same boat as today is what I'm afraid of.

[Performer]

nm what are your reads and why?

[Performer]

[quote="In

No because we couldn't trust each other. I couldn't tell him that Sasha was Cop and he couldn't tell me that he was going to vig him.

I already quoted his crumb that me and FL caught early D1. Its his 4th post.

You didn’t trust Krazy? If he was scum fakeclaiming then it would have shown. Let’s say He was and you told him Sasha was cop. Do you not think Sasha dying and no one else wouldn’t look extremely suspicious?

@krazy if you did shoot sash yesterday, man am I angry......
you, GE, FL, Creat - you guys saw what happened in the hood logistics in NY 213. Why didn't you shoot rogers if you 2 distrusted each other that much according to rogers.

Haven't gotten to re-ISO of krazy & sash's massive ISOs yet, but have to do that to see if I find anything.

[Performer]

I just checked what I said

I said I was baiting FL - which was the main point of hinting but I don’t outright say I was messing about

Something ain’t right here

something's not been right about rogers since d1, I 've been posting about it.
Not too sure why GE quit pushing for me to die today, as he & rogers wanted this slot's death on d1. Now he's voting nm.... maybe GE is likelier town than prof & rogers, is my immediate hypothesis.

Did you teach Saudade how to play? It's like he never left.

Nm probably did!

[Performer]

placeholder:

continue from 1278 in Krazy's ISO.
776 mentioned naomi flipping scum before his read of the parrot slot, though he was not super sure on those yet. mentioned prof scum & tw/nm as town.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think your death is pretty much set, so why expend effort for something that’s already happening?

[Performer]

I think your death is pretty much set, so why expend effort for something that’s already happening?

because it might help others in future phases . And if people were so convinced, I'd be dead already. So I am continuing to dig through and provide what I can.

[Performer]

THere was NO NEED for him to hard claim. WHEN DO YOU START SEEING REALITY!?

Why the fuck did you want the person you put to L-2 not to claim? Are you seriously just fucking around with your votes? This day has lasted weeks, we are not waiting for Frank's replacement to lynch someone, this shit has gotten absurd. Like, are YOU rolefishing? Why the fuck would you put him to L-2 if you don't want him to hardclaim and get lynched if he's not a TPR?

Townread

Flavor Leaf

Spoiler:

Look at that face and tell me he's not town.

Real talk: 97 103 111 and 122 in conjunction with each other indicate town!Flavor, even though I think he is wrong about 122

Doughboy

Spoiler:

Aww, he's so temperamental! But he's still probably town. Basically I don't think scum ever responds to my icebreaker like he did.

Light Ethos

Spoiler:

I think he probably flips town!

Real talk: While I understand Flavor is concerned that 587 and 592 look like IIoA, I basically just buy this guy being so new he seriously thought we could plausibly be in 4:9. I personally take 587 as a townslip.

The Duck

Spoiler:

The duck doesn't get angry as scum. Getting angry from d1 pressure after replacing in to a TPR makes a lot of sense.

Likely town

Saudade

Spoiler:

He could go either way, but I think he grows into something beautiful for the town this game.

Real talk: Things like 198 look more like town!Saudade, although my read here is weaker than for Flavor or Doughboy.

Crimson

Spoiler:

I think he probably flips town!

Real talk: This read right now is almost 100% based on 346 which I really liked. Low certainty on this read but I'm fine with it for now.

Paranoia note: 346 reads very similar to Naomi's traitor post here -- viewtopic.php?p=8643000#p8643000 so if Naomi were to somehow flip red I might have to re-evaluate this read on the risk that Crimson is getting tutored in the scum PT.

Null / Very Mixed Feelings

The Parrot

Spoiler:

Need I say more?

Naomi

Spoiler:

*note that the gifs were selected earlier in the day and a few slots have moved. deal with it.

Naomi is a competent scum player and in general a powergamer. The main things I have noticed from Naomi are: An early push on Flavor: 95 followed by a shift to profii in 205, a lack of reaction to my case on Frank in 318 and 319, an unvote in 475, a strange case on Light in 554, and a rambling reads list in 565. So there is a lot to work with here, but it does not easily point to a clear, definite answer on a read.

"Scum Game 1"
As scum, Naomi tends to be more aggressive early
Here's a scum game where she starts with an early push: viewtopic.php?p=4585949#p4585949
Unvotes to reevaluate: viewtopic.php?p=4601659#p4601659
Then after getting some pressure for not voting comes back with more pressure: viewtopic.php?p=4616997#p4616997

I was scumreading her for most of this dayphase because this looks a lot like the trajectory of 95 --> 205 --> an unvote in 475 --> 554

Likewise, since I feel like Frank is scum, 318 and 319 seemed like a scummy way to react.

"Town Game 1"
As town she tends to be much more reactive -- it takes her long time to vote at all here: viewtopic.php?t=69502&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

But there's also a lot to point to her being town and that makes me lack certainty on her being scum.

Towncase counter-argument:

"Town Game 2"
In this VT game she does an RVS, unvotes, and then pushes later the same day here: viewtopic.php?t=29652&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

So town game 2 matches her play style here relatively well.

Another counter-argument to Naomi scum comes from Scum Game 1: viewtopic.php?p=4651585#p4651585
As you can see there, the reads list is a lot less detailed than her reads this game.

It's also the case that as town she tends to ramble more in her reads lists, as you can see form this town game reads list: viewtopic.php?p=8691601#p8691601

Rebuttal:

"Traitor Game 1"
But you can see she is fully capable of doing a detailed reads list as a Scum Traitor here -- viewtopic.php?p=8643218#p8643218

My main issue with using this as a rebuttal point is that she has a lot more incentive to do a detailed reads list as scum when she is traitor since she is trying to communicate with the scum team.

To that extent I end up having mixed feelings on Naomi. Among my mixed reads, I think she flips scum before the parrot.

Possible Scum

The Golfball

Spoiler:

I was scumreading this slot for a while, but the replace-out AtE bothered me more than I expected.

There's not a lot to work with in terms of meta here but here's what we got:
Goon - viewtopic.php?t=76282&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=76641&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=76983&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

In this respect, I feel like it's not unreasonable to say that 357 is scummy. If you look at the VT games, he does unvote on occasion, but he also is usually quicker to come back and put pressure on slots. He also is willing to name scumreads. It's unusual for him to have such weak reads or be unwilling to commit to reads. Likewise, the main thing that bothers me is the frequency with which he plays the newbie card, which he also used quite frequently in his scum game win in newbie queue.

Counter-argument:
He never unvotes in his one scum game, but he does in his town games, so there is the risk that taking the time to reassess the game is actually town indicative. This keeps him in the pink for now, rather than the dark red.

Mostly Mute Profii

Spoiler:

89 was the start to a very passive early game. It was also weird how he asked for my read on Naomi in 187 when he hadn't said his own. In 294 he accuses Frank of white knighting me, but then in 352 implies he thinks I'm scum. Then in 369 he says that me and LE are a scum team. One thing that REALLY threw me was 386, because even though he had "ding ding" on me being scum, he agreed with Saudade that it was "Frank + any Lurker"... unless he sees me as a lurker (I'm not)? I started to get bored of his fake two post restriction 442 when he accused me of "role fishing" his obviously fake role, but at that point I wasn't sure whether he was straight up channeling Meme Man or Pod Person and if I ruined his trolling fun immediately he'd self-destruct. Surprise surprise, when I finally get fed up with people asking him about it he backlashes at me. In 461 he starts on the shit reasoning that there "has" to be scum in the neighborhood (to be clear, out of the three games with neighborhoods I have been in, only 1/3 had scum in the neighborhood, and that was a theme game). He says "admittedly assuming" but he then continues with that same shit logic when he breaks out of the fake two post restriction.

Right now if he's town I think he is literally the heaviest person in the game, and I just characterized the Parrot as a Snorlax. After 600 I have downgraded this slot to my bottom 4 but I am not certain this is scum quite yet; for much of the day he has been floating up and down my neutrals list, but with my other reads solidifying and my scumread of Naomi softening, I'm starting to think this is more likely to flip red.

Likely Scum

Frank

Spoiler:

I guess people weren't blown away by my Frank case, but for reference, the question isn't "is skipping RVS scummy" the question is "is skipping RVS scummy for the player"

There's not a huge sample size for Frank, but here it is:

Third Party -- viewtopic.php?t=70956&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=70754&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

VT -- viewtopic.php?t=69166&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

He does not skip RVS as VT and he does as SK. So that raises the question--why did he skip it this game? I don't feel like I ever got a sense of why he was avoiding it this game, and it leads in to my sense that he has been playing defensively. His push on Saudade seemed safe and weak and then he went into hardlurk. Seems like pretty likely scum to me.

The Manatee

Spoiler:

I summarized my main feelings on the Manatee here: 578. The self-vote, in and of itself, is NAI. The question is what has he done since then. And the answer is--nothing. This is consistent with his scum game, of taking a long time to formulate cases and sitting on weak votes for a long period of time.

Since he 'came back' all he has offered are posts like: 657, 676 which suggest he is only right now looking at a few players, and those players I am fairly certain are town. I think he can't figure out a solid mislynch and so he basically is basically lurking until he figures out what to do. You can tell that he has posted elsewhere on site during his prod, so it's not like he wasn't logging on--he has been logging on and ignoring this thread, which suggests he doesn't know what to do, which is more consistent with his scum game. That or he's waiting for suggestions in his scum PT.

As in 578 I still have some concerns with the case here, namely that he usually makes SLIGHTLY more of an effort to seem pro-town as scum than he has here. But if you look at his town games, he's not afraid to put pressure on slots with his vote, which he basically is not doing at all here.

It has almost nothing to do with my reaction test - I’ve been trying to steer people that way with posting the percentages and such but I knew it could wait whilst I was doing the 2 word thing

Personally I think the optimal play is to deal with the neighbourhood RIGHT NOW

My working theory is 2 hood dudes outed themselves and someone even said “why not masons” I’m assuming a third dude probably posted in the PT “don’t out me yet please” - simple as that

Even then all things considered

3 scum in 13 is a 23% chance of hitting scum today
1 in 3 in the hood is 33% - with the added benefit if we hit scum then we get 1 (poss 2) innos and we keep any kind of protective un-outed so we can hang on to our inno for a while

Personally I think we go for Krazy over Doughboy
Doughboy seemed legit annoyed at me that I wasn’t playing “properly”

Krazy on the other has was straight in the wiki checking for a PR potential in me which seems scummy to me

VOTE: Krazy

Right now your case requires us to believe that:
A) There are three people in the hood, which no one has actually said
B) That if there are three people in the hood, one is certainly scum, which is false
C) That I checked the wiki about your obvious fakeclaim, which no one who plays in NY regularly needed to do

Right now you are looking actually heavier than the Manatee and that guy is currently voting himself.

yeah those 3 are probably the posts that stick out to me the most from krazy.

also @GE I use various techniques like teamwork vote, nka, and the posts & interactions of the dead - krazy being one of them. I would think you know this already, so why would you ask me why I am trying to work with the dead person dave's posts and other's posts

[Performer]

pedit: not dave, I meant krazy

[Almost50]

Flavour Leaf

Mate, there's absolutely no point in checking the Masons. Why? because we already lynched one scum, so we are looking for two, and if the Masons are faking then they are the two.

Now why can't that be the case? Simple: Krazy wasn't gonna shoot in them, so if these are the scum pair we're looking for they would have 100% shot the GS (the role that could have gone rogue and ruined their gambit). Since scum opted to shoot Krazy over N_M, then NO WAY IN HELL are FL & Creature faking.

So, please pick someone from myself, Gamma or Rogers (personally I want Rogers checked bc I TR the slot still but would feel like a fool if that is scum being too scummy to be scum). My next preference is myself over Gamma, and the reason I put Rogers before myself is I am still waiting for that bullet with my name on it to continue the trend, so there is always a chance (no matter how small bc there are outed PRs and conf!Town slots) that I would be shot and the check is rendered useless.

[Almost50]

and it's between nm & rogers.

Rogers only claimed neighbour with Krazy, and Krazy ( a flipped townie) confirmed it!

[Mister Rogers]

and it's between nm & rogers.

Rogers only claimed neighbour with Krazy, and Krazy ( a flipped townie) confirmed it!

That doesn't clear me. I could still be scum if the neighbor claim is the only criteria. If you read my play carefully however, there is no way I can be scum. I can make my town case very well, to the point that its like intellectually impossible I am scum.

[Mister Rogers]

Gamma is playing a very good game here on D2 and it will be hard to accept that he is scum with either NM or Performer.

[Mister Rogers]

Btw, on NM:

If he doesn't peek from the list given, he will be immediately auto lynched on the following day.

[Mister Rogers]

One thing I CAN say though. If I was scum Sauda and I had scum buddies of Worst/Crimson, I would be bussing with the slightest hint of any pressure on either slot. There is no way a lynch would be going down without me on a leading position. They both are horrendous active lurkers but Worst is just like an expert at it as either alignment.

[Almost50]

and it's between nm & rogers.

Rogers only claimed neighbour with Krazy, and Krazy ( a flipped townie) confirmed it!

That doesn't clear me. I could still be scum if the neighbor claim is the only criteria. If you read my play carefully however, there is no way I can be scum. I can make my town case very well, to the point that its like intellectually impossible I am scum.

Wasn't discussing your alignment. I was responding to the phrase "fake claim". Yours can't be a fake claim.

[Mister Rogers]

Oh ok. LOL ya.

On Sauda-Worst, I think the fakeclaim was deliberate and orchestrated in the Q/T. Sauda was just looking for any excuse to trigger it and Frank provided it.

[Mister Rogers]

But of course I claimed "Town Neighbor" which WOULD be a fake claim if I was "Scum Neighbor".

[Performer]

Gamma is playing a very good game here on D2 and it will be hard to accept that he is scum with either NM or Performer.

GE is in no way on my team. For that matter, I'm not teamed with anyone since I'm not scum anyway...

[Performer]

One thing I CAN say though. If I was scum Sauda and I had scum buddies of Worst/Crimson, I would be bussing with the slightest hint of any pressure on either slot. There is no way a lynch would be going down without me on a leading position. They both are horrendous active lurkers but Worst is just like an expert at it as either alignment.

I can back this up about saud & tw in terms of active lurking.

[Flavor Leaf]

I feel bad for the position Performer’s in.

Like he’s so scum, but it’s not even his fault he’s getting pushed

[Mister Rogers]

I don't think he is "no scum" but I feel the hopeless position he is in and I fell bad for him for that reason.

[Mister Rogers]

OH LOL. I misread that! LOL. YOu said "SO scum" lol.