Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Eragon]

Lmfao at not voting confscum.

Seriously.

Isn't Deku smarter than this?

[Eragon]

If we no lynch now, we have a chance to catch mime and have our lynch options lowered

If we lynch Thor, mafia will kill me no matter what

[Eragon]

VOTE: No lynch

This is our best option to win IMO

a no-lynch maximizes our chances and time we have

[Aristophanes]

If mafia doesn't uphold the deal, we lynch Thor anyways and give win to mime if possible

Uhhhhh

Giving mime the win purposely is antiwincon...at least my wincon.

Why waste our lynch on confirmed scum when we can make a deal with mafia?

How do we barter with Mafia? "Hey I'll leave Thir alive today so you can shoot mime but like, you know Imma have to lynch you after right? Cool.

I still don't think Thor is the best lynch today

The point of the NL long game was so we could avoid any chance of a Mime lynch ya? So if we don't lynch Thor today what do we do, NL again?
What good does this do us in the end?

[Fink]

Actually, Jingle made a good point, obfuscated in a bunch of other crap:

We should lynch not-Thor because then Mime is better off roleblocking Thor so as not to get shot and lose, and we get an extra chance to lynch Mafia. It increases the odds of Mime winning at the expense of Mafia.

It does increase Town's odds of winning the game too though.

[Fink]

VOTE: Guilty Lion

[Eragon]

I'd rather take a risk now when we have a chance

We still have majority tommorow(or tied, but then mime has to out to save mafia)
Because it will be : 3 v 2 v 1

If I die tonight, you need to lynch Thor no mater what

But while I'm alive, keeping Thor around is the best play

[Fink]

No way is Jingle Mafia, I think Mime is reasonably likely though.

[Eragon]

I disagree on mafia!GL

I don't see the Thor interactions as W/W

[Eragon]

I'm ok with lynching for Thor' partner, but I'm worried about the extra risk.

But what the hell is life without risk?

[Fink]

Why would Mafia have Thor make the shot?

[Eragon]

Why would Mafia have Thor make the shot?

Because I watch thor

[Fink]

and?

[Eragon]

Vote Count

lane0168 - 5 - Fink, Jingle, Thor665, Eragon, Almost50
Almost50 - 4 - Nero Cain, RockyHorror, Sesq, lane0168
Sesq - 3 - innocentvillager, GuiltyLion, FA_Q2

Not Voting - Aristophanes

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline is Sunday September 2 at 10pm EST

Is fink just mime here?
Or is that too obvious?

[Aristophanes]

GL is likely mime and is a bad vote.

Thor isnt making the kill tn regardless so that's just stupid.

Investigative obv dies tn unless Mime will block them and allow mafia to shoot elsewhere, which is a level of coordination I don't see as likely tn. However it lets us find out a lot over the night via who dies or is blocked and may lead us to victory.

How am I wrong and why because it all makes sense to me.

Holy 10 ninjas man damn

[Eragon]

and?

There's no risk to mafia with Thor taking the kill, and I can catch the mime if they try to stop the kill

[Eragon]

Okay, so plan A is shot out of the water.

Time to consider if a plan B works.

Currently we're at 4v2v1. After tonight that becomes 3v1v1.

I will 100% kingmake mime in 1v1v1, and any town player should do the same, mechanically speaking, therefore mafia needs to find the mime to win.

808 is valid with the exception that we definitely lynch in 1v1v2. We cannot win a 1v1v1 LYLO, but mime still has to pretend to be town in 1v1v2.

Alternative math to Lynching Thor.

No lynch today:

Thor can shoot, watcher can target Thor. Watcher is 0% threat to scum, because the only antiscum result he can get is that Thor is mafia, which we already know. Therefore, mafia has no reason to target watcher and can mime hunt. Thus mime should block mafia, but can't because watcher will be on Thor. Thor will shoot in {Not thor's partner, Not Eragon} Meaning in an absence of reads they have a 25% chance of hitting mime. I'm clearly not the mime, so that increases to 33%. Tomorrow is either 4v2 or 3v2v1. Mime will help lynch thor, so it becomes 3v1v1 going into night. Either 1v3 MYLO or 2v1v1 MYLO.

We lynch NotThor today:

Lynch mime: Autolose. 20%
Lynch Scum: Autowin. 20%
Lynch Town: 3v2v1 going into night, with the same caveats as above. No point in shooting Eragon tonight, so they shoot for mime. 33% chance. If we lynch not-me town, that's a 50/50. Next day is either 3v2 with one conftown and one confscum, which becomes 2v1 LYLO, or 2v2v1. 2v2v1, mime needs to lynch Thor to win, so will vote with town. At which point scum needs to shoot the mime to not rely on town picking scum over mime (lolnope, explained below), and we have a 2v1 with a confirmed town.

Explanation of 1v1v1:

Mafia wins by lynching town or going to night.
Mime wins by lynching self.
Town wins by lynching mafia.

Town has Kingmaker position here, but if we instead agree to vote any self votes in LYLO, Mafia has to obscure the identity of the mime and play for a no lynch. Therefore, voting a selfvote in LYLO is the only possible way to win as town.

Pick this post the fuck apart, because I don't want to lose to a gap in my logic.

[Eragon]

GL is likely mime and is a bad vote.

Thor isnt making the kill tn regardless so that's just stupid.

Investigative obv dies tn unless Mime will block them and allow mafia to shoot elsewhere, which is a level of coordination I don't see as likely tn. However it lets us find out a lot over the night via who dies or is blocked and may lead us to victory.

How am I wrong and why because it all makes sense to me.

Holy 10 ninjas man damn

If Thor doesn't get lynched I don't need to be killed by mafia.

We discussed this already

[GuiltyLion]

Thor isnt making the kill tn regardless so that's just stupid.

Thor always makes the kill... it'd be stupid not to, unless they're killing Eragon. but mafia needs to get rid of mime more than they need to get rid of town at this stage and Eragon is no threat to mafia while Thor is alive

[Aristophanes]

Fine, you watch thor and mine blocks you.

Then what?
Mafia are probably unblocked whether he lives or not and we get no info from ya. The plan is flawed.

[Eragon]

Also we can have Thor kill targets we want

For example

@thor

Kill between (Fink/IV) tonight please
I'm leaving this open so you don't insta-confirm your buddy
If one of these doesn't die tonight we will probably lynch you

[Eragon]

Fine, you watch thor and mine blocks you.

Then what?
Mafia are probably unblocked whether he lives or not and we get no info from ya. The plan is flawed.

Is that worse than me being dead?

[Fink]

Eragon, have you ISOd Thor and GL? Which interactions strike you as impossible for scumbuddies?

Here are the main ones I noticed:

It's not a pretty progression of thought. It reads like he found something he thinks he could paint as "wrong" and attacked it rather than finding something he thinks is scummy.
Now, yes, he may just be sloppy town, I am debating that - but to have him as town anything at this stage boggles my mind.

eh, I guess your interpretation is fair but I just got the sense reading his posts that he was genuinely confused by what you had said and was trying to figure it out. I don't think he was intentionally misrepping especially given how he backed off like you said

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here; how do Sesq's Mime status and FA_Q2's scum status connect in your mind?

They're both not showing me any evidence of being town

Sesq is aggressively playing scummy whereas FA_Q2 looks a lot more like he's trying to avoid the spotlight while sheeping onto the convenient wagon

It's not a connection between the two necessarily, it's just how I feel about assessing their slots and a possible explanation for the gamestate

What makes FA_Q2 stand out from the other lazy voters on the lazy wagon?
I mean, basically half the game is lazy votes, so why him over, say, Fink doubling down on an RVS position, or IV voting Sesq because Sesq gets reads when voted, or me sticking to cases I last described eight pages ago?

There's surprisingly little between them, just a few bits of conversation. Which makes it

really

interesting how GL was shading me for my lack of interaction with Thor.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Fink - 2 - Jingle, Guiltylion
Thor665 - 1 - Aristophanes
No Lynch - 1 - Eragon
Guiltylion - 1 - Fink

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday, September 28, at 8:30PM EST

[Fink]

GL is likely mime and is a bad vote.

Why Mime?