Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Light Ethos]

Btw, on N1 I blocked Sasha (since I was very suspicious of him and no one else was, so I deduced he might be the one to do the NK).

This is abjectly false. Saudade wanted Sashaddin dead Day 1 and spammed the thread calling for his head. I also didn't trust Sashaddin.

[Akarin]

VOTE: Gamma

[Gamma Emerald]

If you were scum and someone else was being mislynched

Why would you claim you're mason with them?

But he claimed mason with you

[Gamma Emerald]

well what we know is this


FL had no insider knowledge - his mason claim was risk reward based on his Creature read.


We also know Creature _knew_ FL was lying


We also know Creature was happy to survive and follow the lie


Imo the optimal play is to push back on the lie - either people go “wow wtf we better lynch FL” - ok we would have flipped a VT but there is no shame in flipping someone who is putting their own reads over the majority of players (given creature re was about to go)

But - at the same time _because_ creature pushed back on the lie - I’d trust him more


Because creature went with the lie and tried to ride it out - I don’t trust him

Scum could also push back against the lie
See Mini 1985

[Gamma Emerald]

but no result confuses me.

I think nm is just scum

[Creature]

If you were scum and someone else was being mislynched

Why would you claim you're mason with them?

But he claimed mason with you

I mean in FL's POV.

[Gamma Emerald]

Btw, on N1 I blocked Sasha (since I was very suspicious of him and no one else was, so I deduced he might be the one to do the NK).

:fry:
That Sasha target is kinda susp

[Gamma Emerald]

If you were scum and someone else was being mislynched

Why would you claim you're mason with them?

But he claimed mason with you

I mean in FL's POV.

This is about YOUR PoV

[Creature]

My PoV is: there was no reason for scum!FL to fakeclaim that so there's no problem going along with his gambit that prevented two potential mislynches.

[Creature]

Enough tinfoiling?

[Gamma Emerald]

Enough tinfoiling?

How is “Creature is scum that rode a mason fakeclaim” a tinfoil?

[Creature]

Like the whole argument is "if creature was town he would've pointed out the lie"

[Gamma Emerald]

Which is a reasonable statement? For it to be a tinfoil it would have to be out there in some way
As it stands you just look like you’re discrediting the idea you could be scum without actually trying to engage the argument presented

[Almost50]

Which is a reasonable statement? For it to be a tinfoil it would have to be out there in some way
As it stands you just look like you’re discrediting the idea you could be scum without actually trying to engage the argument presented

Gamma please read my posts. I acknowledge it's NAI to have let the Masons claim roll on. It could come from Town or scum alike (Town knowing scum wouldn't try to save them from the lynch, and scum riding it to get out of the lynch).

HOWEVER, scum would NOT shoot FL in that case. It really really doesn't benefit Scum!Creature to shoot the guy he's claiming Masons with. If Creature was EVER flipped FL was a

guaranteed

mislynch.

[Light Ethos]

Because N_M is alive and being set for a mislynch. Shooting N_M would have been fine for them, but shooting FL gets them rid of a strong townie who was never going to get lynched anyway and makes it possible for them to lynch N_M instead of shooting him. Now why would they want N_M flipped today if it wasn't to confirm his one and only result?

All I get from this is that it's highly unlikely that both town!Not_Mafia and scum!Almost50 exist.
Scum!Almost50 would take this opportunity to protect scum!Not_Mafia by giving him cover to take an extra day before providing a mislynch target to town.
TownRoleblocker!Almost50's logic is already presented in the thread, but it would equally buy additional time for scum!Not_Mafia and would clear suspicion for town!Not_Mafia.


The main issue I have with your reasoning is that even if I completely trust your Town Roleblocker claim and even if Not_Mafia isn't fake claiming, Not_Mafia could still be a scum Gunsmith. He claims to have randomly selected a target Night 1. I don't think choosing a completely random target makes sense in this particular game. That slot has done nothing to contribute to game solving. I don't see town motivation anywhere from either player. It seems very WIFOM at best for you to assert that he's town solely on the basis of him receiving votes at the beginning of the Day.

[Mister Rogers]

HOWEVER, scum would NOT shoot FL in that case. It really really doesn't benefit Scum!Creature to shoot the guy he's claiming Masons with. If Creature was EVER flipped FL was a

guaranteed

mislynch.

As I have already pointed out, this is horse crap. Since you did this on another argument concerning NM, I think its just the way that you think because you obviously can
't be scum with both of them (assuming a setup with 3 scum).

[Light Ethos]

HOWEVER, scum would NOT shoot FL in that case. It really really doesn't benefit Scum!Creature to shoot the guy he's claiming Masons with. If Creature was EVER flipped FL was a guaranteed mislynch.

Going to have to disagree with you here.

Facts:
Town had pretty solid consensus that we were going to leave Flavor Leaf and Creature alive until the end of the game untouched by investigations and were willing to risk that both of them turned out to be the scum team with Crimson. In comparison to Creature, Flavor Leaf was pretty focused on game solving Day 2 and showed that he had the capacity to algorithmically evaluate optimal progressions for the following days. Flavor Leaf was under zero threat of death from town, as the only Vig claim was dead.

Analysis:
Flavor Leaf bought himself the chance to sit back and solve the game with impunity, and it is absolutely possible that he would find scum!Creature's partner.
Flavor Leaf didn't have the chance to talk about his fake Mason claim in the way that he discussed his fake Vig claim. It very well could have been an attempt to secure a better Day 1 kill that better aligned with his reads that eventually became an extended reaction test of Creature. I don't know that Flavor Leaf genuinely townread Creature, as he was already locked into defending that slot by way of how he defended Manatee when he was inactive.

Conclusion:

I don't find it valid to assume that a scum team with Creature on it wouldn't be greedy and take out someone who is active, creative, unpredictable, and truly capable of piecing the picture together.

[Mister Rogers]

What are the odds Crimson is getting double bussed in VC 1.11?
Townflips on Krazy, Sashadin, Flavor, Saudade
So my lynch pool for the day is:
Gamma
Almost50
Not_Mafia

That's where I'll focus reading anything.

Both scum not bussing seems possible, which makes odds even better, but seems super duper unlikely both other scum were bussing at that point.

Anything wrong with this logic I'm missing by not reading 138 pages?

Can you explain why scum WOULDN'T double bus? I would consider any late entries on the wagon to be suspicious, sure but I don't see why both scum couldn't be on the wagon?

[Mister Rogers]

VC1

Crimson97 (7)

- Naomi-Tan, Creature, Almost50,

Performer

, Flavor Leaf

, Not_Mafia, Light Ethos

Naomi-Tan (1)

-

Crimson97

Performer (2)

- Gamma Emerald , Mister Rogers

Mister Rogers (1)

- profii

profii (1)

- Krazy 2987
UNVOTE/Not Voting (1) - Sashaddin

VC2

Performer (Saudade) (6)

- Flavor Leaf

, Almost50, Light Ethos, Mister Rogers, profii, Not_Mafia

Not_Mafia (2)

- Gamma Emerald , Creature

profii (1

) -

Performer

UNVOTE/Not Voting (1) - Akarin

Don't forget there are TWO wagons on Crimson...

[Mister Rogers]

Who did mafia roleblocker roleblock N1?

there is no "Mafia" Roleblocker. I am the TOWN Roleblocker, and >I< blocked N_M last night to verify once and for all that he was indeed a GS. If he had given a result (either way) on ANYONE he would have been caught in a lie and I would have drove his lynch myself. Since he says he didn't get a result I know he has a check for real, and it was blocked by me, so he's telling the truth.

I also had expected him to be NK'd as a Town GS, but his survival could be a scum plot to drive the lynch on him anyway, and especially so if >

LE

< was the scum Doctor, in which case flipping N_M would make LE look even better (having been checked by the Town GS).

My scum team is profii+LE, but I'm not as confident on the latter.

I apologize for not reading this on my first read through, I was obviously rushed due to work.

Do you mind if I ask who you blocked on N1 (or was this answered already)?

[Mister Rogers]

Btw, on N1 I blocked Sasha (since I was very suspicious of him and no one else was, so I deduced he might be the one to do the NK).

[Gamma Emerald]

Which is a reasonable statement? For it to be a tinfoil it would have to be out there in some way
As it stands you just look like you’re discrediting the idea you could be scum without actually trying to engage the argument presented

Gamma please read my posts. I acknowledge it's NAI to have let the Masons claim roll on. It could come from Town or scum alike (Town knowing scum wouldn't try to save them from the lynch, and scum riding it to get out of the lynch).

HOWEVER, scum would NOT shoot FL in that case. It really really doesn't benefit Scum!Creature to shoot the guy he's claiming Masons with. If Creature was EVER flipped FL was a

guaranteed

mislynch.

Maybe
But why does Town!Creature obfuscate this way?

[Almost50]

@Light Ethos: My assertion of N_M being town isn't directly related to the voted he's been getting at that start of the day, but more with the fact he acknowledged he was indeed RB'd. So, he's not faking hos role. Can we agree on that (assuming I am indeed a Town RB)??

Now, let's see how likely the GS role would be aligned with the Town vs Mafia:

Town!GS would give a false positive (guilty) on not one, but TWO TPRs (Vig + Cop). Furthermore, I (and FL) suspected there's a

good chance

the Mafia has a Doctor (to protect them from the VIG, and to shade my role when/if I ever had to claim it). That "theory" came from the fact one scum actually claimed Doctor (I myself claimed my partner's role in a previous game, and with him flipping I managed to cruise for 5 game days winning the game single handedly, because most players thought I wouldn't claim an existing Mafia role).

Now what does the GS do to scum? It reveals both the Cop & Vig alright, but that's about it.

Now, if the Town has a Vig, and Even Night Cop, and a Roleblocker, and scum only have a Doctor then the GS is very much a NEGATIVE UTILITY that compensates the scum team for their lack of firepower.

If the GS is scum though, and assuming they have no Doctor (because that's an assumption still), then it's Vig+RB+Even Night Cop (I keep saying "Even Night" to imply it's a weakened role) vs GS. RB could already be a negative utility by itself (demonstrated by the fact I targeted the Cop. Fortunately it wasn't their night of action, but still it could have happened on N2 instead). Anyway, it is my opinion (and I could be wrong) that the GS & RB were included specifically to weaken the town and thus the scum team may not have PRs (either they have a Doctor or nothing at all), while if the GS is scum then the town is certainly at a disadvantage if the scum do have a Doctor.

Like, I could buy scum GS if the Mafia had no other PR and then Crimson faked Doctor to try and bait a CC because scum somehow figured the GS will catch the Cop but they still needed the Doctor outed (too bad none existed and Crimson almost got away with it).

Which brings me to the next point: Why would scum!me bus Crimson that hard on D1? If it wasn't for my persistence I don't think Crimson would have been lynched on D1, and I could have easily adopted Rogeres' PoV of not lynching a claimed PR on D1.

Also, scum GS means scum knew there is no Tracker/Watcher (the GS doesn't catch those, and they rarely ever co-exit with a Cop) so N_M (or rather tw) could (and should) have claimed VT, and especially so when he did it while he was @L-3. Scum should have known two PR claims (fake or not) will be too much to buy with "whatever" PRs the town had.

So, again.. GS is a negative utility, and the Cop role (supposed to double check) was weakened, and was supposed to return a false guilty. It's the kind of setup I would probably use (if I was the mod) over the straight forward roles.

Now am I biased because I like N_M (and tw)? Maybe, but I don't think so.
Could it be I'm subjecting my own modding modules? Perhaps I am.
I also seem to recall I played a game modded by Nauci, but I can't for the life of me remember what it was, nor even whether it was with this account or an alt. The point is I can't be too sure about how her modding meta is. Like, when you play many games under the same mod you can tell which kind of setups they like, which types of roles to expect, and which types they don't like to include in their games. *Shrug*

If you all still want to lynch N_M, that's fine. I made my case, and I am not voting him. Do as you wish.

[Almost50]

Maybe
But why does Town!Creature obfuscate this way?

Because he's.. CREATURE??

[Mister Rogers]

Vote: Unvote