Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[ruru]

If you think that linked game is somehow similar to what I am talking about you will have to show me, step by step, how it's similar at all.

My point here is that A50 would have to be the ONLY townie not voting scum at EOD1 if Gamma were scum (and then be the nightkill!!). That just. isn't. likely. It's obvious why - and the point bears out, Gamma flipped town. I'm not even asking for towncred here, I'm just expressing annoyance and you're telling me I'm wrong -

No I'm not

, he flipped town!

mafia is a game of randomness and incomplete information and one result does not prove or disprove a method

in a game theory sense vca gives no information at all; it's an exploitive line that relies either on general scum voting tendencies or specific players' meta-tendencies and it's not obvious to me at all why your point of view would be correct.

it's possible that you just know more than I do (which is why I'm asking if you either have statistical evidence of your ideas about vca or statistical evidence of your reads being extremely accurate)

[ruru]

"Well, it was his fault, not mine" is not a towny response. town says something like "huh wonder what other reads I've got wrong" or "I guess that flip means ___ is maybe scum"
Here you're answering the "why did ruru push a townie's lynch" pre-emptively, no one had asked it

it might just be I'm annoyed with you here but I'm seriously scumreading your entrance to this day
I've also thought since ISOing her that ruru could maybe actually be traitor

you're probably just annoyed with me.

[Irrelephant11]

I have neither, except to say that I have never once seen a town so coordinated as to have 9/10 town voting scum d1
Given mafia is also a game of lying and manipulation and division, it seems obvious why this would be so incredibly rare (if it's ever happened at all)
You seem to feel the worst is likely scum, too, and if he were scum with Gamma, 11/13 votes would have been on scum at EOD1.

Like why isn't this obvious? @anyone other than ruru, am I being dumb or is it just true that I made a good point and ruru is refusing to accept that?

The fact you are being obstinate on this point makes me wonder about your alignment - in fact, mafia being "a game of randomness and incomplete information" is exactly why it should have been clear by looking at that votecount that town was never going to be so incredibly accurate as to be almost exclusively voting two scum in NM/GE.

And that's all without even mentioning that scum would have to be idiotic/very strange to vote A50 in the situation where Gamma was scum, which you've mostly glossed over with "provide statistics and read every post of the game or I don't need to listen to you"

pedit: Well regardless of your alignment, yes, I am

[ruru]

Not to be rude but I think your nsg thing sounds weak because it is actually just too weak to use here
At least if you want anyone to agree with you...

zzz

no more criticizing the gamma lynch please and if you wanted enigma to happen you should've read the game first.

Wow this is freaking rude and ignores how I've ISO'd most players and read most of the game
Like I did a crap ton of work for replacing in ~pg 70, somewhat close to deadline, and you're basically saying "Your read wasn't better than mine because you did the work or had good arguments," [sidenote: I

super

did both of these things] "it was just random, and also it's your fault he was lynched because you weren't around during sitewide v/la"
Is your goal here to antagonize me????
I'm so mad rn

so, I'm still net townreading you for both mechanical and play reasons, but shading my position on the gamma lynch after making 2139 is just really bad

if you don't want gamma lynched then realistically you should probably agree with my nsg defense (or say nothing) whether or not you think it makes sense and there is absolutely a scum motivation to make me doubt my main reason for townreading gamma without looking like you want gamma lynched

[ruru]

I have neither, except to say that I have never once seen a town so coordinated as to have 9/10 town voting scum d1

but this is fallacious:

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

the reason I've been blowing off your ideas about vca is that I don't feel like they're considering the full context of the game and the political situation that led to one thing happening or another rather than just looking at votes

[Irrelephant11]

A question: Do you personally feel like this is a high functioning town?

I didn't at that time have reason to townread Gamma, it was three ISO posts later that I noticed and brought up the vc that made gamma a bad lynch choice
Also your nsg point was just weak, you said so yourself

[ruru]

I don't

also sorry for that post then, I didn't remember that was the order of events

[Irrelephant11]

I agree that you don't, based on some of the posts you have made in the past
Do you then feel it would be reasonable to assume 9/10 town votes were on scum d1?

[ruru]

I obviously don't feel that scum were successfully pushing town lynches on d1 and that's different than town functioning highly.

[Irrelephant11]

You're dodging my question. A not-influential scumteam does not mean that town will have accurate reads. Town must function at a high rate to consolidate their votes onto scum well.
Do you feel it would be reasonable to assume that 9/10 town votes in this game were on scum d1? (ignoring the knowledge we now have that such an assumption would be wrong in this case)

[ruru]

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

[BuJaber]

Rel: It's much easier to see and accept your point in hindsight, but frankly I didn't really get it because I kept looking for 3 scum and forgetting to count NM as 1 and that just kept confusing me as I reread your post. It's probably because I keep thinking of it as the cjv wagon not the NM wagon.

But saying ruru is refusing to accept it is a mischaracterization. She believes she's right also regardless of alignment. And there is the point to make that town could statistically get it right sometimes by pure chance. Wagons tend to attract sheeping whether consciously or subconsciously. You only really one or two townies reading only 1 scum correctly and 1 or 2 townies reading another scum correctly and you could easily end up with the read sccuracy thing you're describing.

I think you're right to go for the more statistically probable assumption and be mathematically right a lot of the time but expecting people to agree with you and go along is unreasonable. People tend to trust their reads no matter how improbable they are.

Also consider all scenarios where there is a day 1 scum lynch. In a lot of them you will find town has pretty good accuracy. Even the absolute worst case scenario is all 3 scum vote on wagon, and all 6 townies off wagon getting it wrong, which is still 40% accuracy and higher than the random chance.

Plus you're analysis of the a50 nk is being factored into your vc analysis, and the problem with that is people aren't going to think the same as you. Scum could nk without even thinking about the VC. And then there's all the WIFOM and other possible variables like PR hunting or whatever.

[Irrelephant11]

that's literally not the same at all
If you think town is not performing well, you think that town is performing poorly. If you think town is performing poorly, that should affect how you look at vote placements. Town that is performing poorly does not have 9/10 votes on scum d1 - that would be a town that is performing well.

You are pretending that I am saying the equivalent of "how likely is it that town votes scum in RVS"? I'm not pulling crap out of nowhere. I am talking about an end of day vote count, where it is reasonable to assume that some town have been swayed by scum to vote town, some scum are voting scum because that slot was highly lynchable anyway, and ANYWAY I WAS RIGHT
HELLO WE HAVE A FLIP WHY ARE YOU STILL TELLING ME IM WRONG HERE

pedit: whatever I'll just be done interacting with ruru for 24 hours.

[BuJaber]

Right good.

Anyone townreading enigma here?

[the worst]

Inno Korina.
I felt dumb after the hammer but also wanted to see the night thru. sorry for wolfsiding a little.

VOTE: Enigma

[Irrelephant11]

I'll note here that you've basically cashed in any d1 towncred by your gamma vote
my inno on you notwithstanding I don't know that I have strong reasoning remaining to defend your slot
So
Be towny

[the worst]

yeee that was a wolfsided hammer. I had my raisins.

[ofrhz]

VOTE COUNT 3.1

Alonzo (0):

the worst (0):

ruru (0):

BuJaber (0):

Enigma (3):

BuJaber, Irrelephant11, the worst

(L-2)

Irrelephant11 (0):

skitter30 (0):

Korina (0):

Not Voting (5):

Alonzo, ruru, Enigma, skitter30, Korina

With

8

alive, it takes

5

to kill.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-10-16 07:30:00)

Other:

- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays
- skitter30 V/LA through Tuesday

[skitter30]

VOTE: Gamma
is this a wolf? ¯\(°_o)/¯
am I more likely wrong on Gamma than anyone else I'm TRing? d=(´▽｀)=b
do we need this phase to end? ＼（○＾ω＾○）／

this is kinda meh

==

Creature has died!

presumably no bg or vig then; scum prob didn't take 3 modifications

hypo-inno enigma

==

i'm trying to decide if i want to vote irrel or not

he individually has been fine i guess but his preds really haven't been

==

VOTE COUNT 1.28

Almost50 (0):

HeWhoSwims (1):

Almost50

the worst (1):

Not_Mafia

ruru (0):

BuJaber (0):

Not_Mafia (7):

the worst, ruru, skitter30, Vex Vience, Creature, Enigma, ejjinami

LYNCH

Enigma (0):

ejjinami (0):

Creature (0):

Gamma Emerald (2):

HeWhoSwims, BuJaber

skitter30 (0):

Vex Vience (0):

Not Voting (1):

Gamma Emerald

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.
Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-09-14 16:30:00)

Other

:
- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays
- HeWhoSwims still needs to be replaced

i mean in this vc gamma is dead, nm is dead, and a50 is dead (as is creature). everyone alive is either on town!gamma or scum!not_mafia

my best guess is one on not_mafia and one on gamma; i highly highly doubt both partners were off; if both partners were on i think tw is one of them

==

Like why isn't this obvious? @anyone other than ruru, am I being dumb or is it just true that I made a good point and ruru is refusing to accept that?

i think you have a decent point

i also think ruru doesn't really view mafia from that pov

i also can understand why you're annoyed with her

i'm trying ot figure out if that annoyance is ai and rn i'm not sure

you're kinda my highest priority to sort right now; i've been trying to since daystart of day2 but ejji flaked and so that didn't really work out

==

- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays
- skitter30 V/LA through Tuesday

just regular weekend v/la from now on, thanks for putting up with the vla

[ruru]

Skitter who are we lynching

also like, mechanical things aside, have you thought about the possibility that enigma is scioness from pick your poison and we just saw him play an extremely scummy game as a tpr where he almost got mislynched and now he's townier than that game but he also isn't doing much that's hard for scum to fake or stepping on any feet and then he just randomly flips scum

like I've been fighting an enigma lynch because people's reasons for scumreading him are awful but he could actually just be scum by poe and gamma flipping town is kind of leading me there too

I need to actually sort bujaber somehow?

tw is still probably scum but I still don't want to lynch him while a traitor flip could still happen

[ruru]

Lynch the worst

[ruru]

oops I'm supposed to be ISPing today

bye everyone.

[skitter30]

Skitter who are we lynching

also like, mechanical things aside, have you thought about the possibility that enigma is scioness from pick your poison and we just saw him play an extremely scummy game as a tpr where he almost got mislynched and now he's townier than that game but he also isn't doing much that's hard for scum to fake or stepping on any feet and then he just randomly flips scum

like I've been fighting an enigma lynch because people's reasons for scumreading him are awful but he could actually just be scum by poe and gamma flipping town is kind of leading me there too

I need to actually sort bujaber somehow?

tw is still probably scum but I still don't want to lynch him while a traitor flip could still happen

really want to sort irrel today before we decide on a lynch

i had not considered that wrt enigma and scioness, but that's a fair point tbh; i'll try to re-iso him tomorrow

[Irrelephant11]

yes hello how would you like to go about sorting me

[Irrelephant11]

skitter is still a top townread, as is the worst

working on more thorough vca and re-reading more of the thread because idk what else to be doing rn