In post 2602, Elsa Jay wrote:In post 2499, Elsa Jay wrote:Claims this game so far-
Elsa: Neutral Doc (Ascetic BP)
Flicker: Priest
Toog: Lightning Rod
Chickadee: Day flavor cop (who says Robin is River/Simon)
Jingle: Mason
Mala: Lyncher who flavor target is "Mal"
I'm keeping this as a reminder for later.
(I must have hard skimmed this because I had some of the same revelations about a page ago and just realized I reiterated a few things lol)In post 2637, Jingle wrote:Actually, this is untrue.In post 2627, Chara wrote:eliminating anyone not of their faction is what scum want to do. a lyncher on a town target can only ever scumside
Mala wants to lynch specifically Mal. (God, that is gonna get annoying fast.)
Outside of that, her next preferred lynch target is: Scum with a nightkill. She actively wants every non Mal town player to stay alive, because the longer that is true, the more likely it is that Mal doesn't get shot. See how that is not scumsiding? Good. I know it's not explicitly townsiding either, but she is definitely not going to scumside because she loses the game if they win before she exits.
Additionally, the spec says that we have exactly 9 town players. That means, given multiple KPN, that we are very quickly going to approach an untenable position unless scum crosskill or cross target. It also means that we can fairly easily determine when it is likely all of the groupscum are dead. If we have more 3rd parties that we can accomodate without having to push them into scum's camp, I'm all for taking advantage of it. If we're at a point in the game where we can give an additional player the win without jeopardizing our own chances, I'm all for it.
To counter Toog's claim that lynching Mala is confirmably lynching two non town on what is effectively D1, that is true enough. But, more importantly, lynching Mala is not lynching group scum. It also doesn't decrease the KPN. And, and this is by far the most important part: We don't have to lynch Mala to win. We're getting damn close to a PoE here off of claims. If we can narrow down scum and just lynch down the line, we don't ever have to lynch Mala to win. If Reynolds flips, we don't have to lynch Mala to win. We DO have to lynch the group scum to win, unless we get super lucky on crosskills. They are a bigger threat, therefore we prioritize dealing with them. We should definitely be aiming to lynch group scum.
As far as scum wanting to take out more bodies? Yeah, that's still definitely a thing. Mala actively wants to lynch scum. They will shoot town, town being shot is how she loses. Therefore, Mala is a threat to scum. Removing threats is how scum wins. As scum, you don't leave a serial killer alive because he might shoot town. You kill the serial killer because he might shoot you. Chickadee is obviously the bigger threat, but she's also obviously a better Doc target. Scum can't afford to miss kills when we have this many probtown. EJ is a decent choice for a scumkill just so he can't protect anymore, but the bp screws all kinds of hell with that logic. Objectively, the best kills here are in obvtown like me, power roles with the possibility of confirming town, like Chick, and people who represent multiple votes that want to lynch scum, like our dear unidentified Captain. ANY chance that scum will shoot for the last (and incidentally might hit other scum) is worth saving.
And, finally: Mala can explicitly win with town given her Role. She cannot be a game ending Lyncher (the reason not to leave Lynchers alive under normal circumstances is to prevent them from screwing the town by being an exclusive wincon lyncher).
Because the dots are fairly easy to connect from there, we do not have a serial killer in this game. The serial killer wincon is incompatible with the rules.
(This is the post where I reiterated some things...)In post 2737, Aristophanes wrote:Ooooooh! No Shit! =DIn post 2736, Jingle wrote:HoB is short for Hands of Blue. They're confirmed to be a 2 man scum team with a traitor via the traitors flip.In post 2735, Aristophanes wrote:I'm not sure what HoB is short for but otherwise I agree with this post of Jingle's
Flavorwise, the traitor was a member of the Alliance and the Hands of Blue are the wetwork team of Blue Sun, which means the Alliance and Blue Sun are working together this game and any additional scumteams are flavored around other factions. Like the Reavers or Niska's crew.
A50 is doing great work then! I Love it!!!
Okay so ya, with HoB and possible other factions there's no way we should be worried about 3P roles. f they can win without harming us fine. If they claim I'm not gonna jump on them at all!
We then have 2 claimed 3P roles, a flipped traitor, 2 HoB scum, possibly Reavers and Niska, and who knows what else.
That's a minimum 5/17 antitown with a likely promise of 2-4 more right? We probably only have 9 town/Serenity members, which I just checked and is exactly the number of crew there were! Part of this theory is because of how the Wincons are written. There is no majority win for scum, because town is starting with just over half the players! It actually makes sense for us to hep 3P roles because it is a harmless way of getting rid of them, since their wincons are not game ending!
This setup is fascinating!
The rest is where Nico replacement train started and Toog looked scummier than they already did. That's only 2 pages and I recommend at least trying to read that much
