Overkill 1: Serenity/Firefly (GAME OVER)

[Jingle]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

[Jingle]

Also, Chara is in my townreads list right under Cheeky, but I could maybe lynch there based on the power of PoE.

I fully expect there to be 1-2 scum in Toog, Tails, Chick, Flicker. I'd rather let those slots be handled by the likelihood of crosskilling or townflavors being made impossible if possible.

[Reasonably Rational]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

This is not a compelling argument for not lynching the slot.

-Cerb

[Malakittens]

id be town to finally lynch the NDS slot which i wanted to from the very beginning

[Reasonably Rational]

id be town

to finally lynch the NDS slot which i wanted to from the very beginning

PFFT YOU'LL NEVER BE TOWN AND YOU KNOW IT.

-Cerb

[Malakittens]

i know makes me sad.

ill just be this 3rd party role thats aligned with herself. seems like the story of my life. its me and only me :[

[Elsa Jay]

3rd party is awesome tho. Oh, we can still be friends Mala, no worry about that. Just let it be known you are also the one I'm using as a Get out of Lynch free card for a day when they start wanting to kill off the Neuts.

[Jingle]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

This is not a compelling argument for not lynching the slot.

-Cerb

The argument that I'd prefer scum kill him to town killing him, or the argument that his alignment becomes a known quantity given a Simon flip?

Because I'm totes down to leave him alive

tonight

on the basis that he might be Simon. Which incidentally, was the basis for leaving the slot alive

tonight

when I posted my (Don't lynch these mechanically) list.

If you have an argument that doesn't largely rely on 'It's a PoE lurker slot' I'd be glad to hear it. Til then I think "There is at least one scum team to whom that slot looks like a very appetizing kill because it has a high expected value to be a protective role" is a good reason not to lynch that slot

today

.

[Jingle]

VOTE: McMenno

[Reasonably Rational]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

This is not a compelling argument for not lynching the slot.

-Cerb

The argument that I'd prefer scum kill him to town killing him, or the argument that his alignment becomes a known quantity given a Simon flip?

Because I'm totes down to leave him alive

tonight

on the basis that he might be Simon. Which incidentally, was the basis for leaving the slot alive

tonight

when I posted my (Don't lynch these mechanically) list.

If you have an argument that doesn't largely rely on 'It's a PoE lurker slot' I'd be glad to hear it. Til then I think "There is at least one scum team to whom that slot looks like a very appetizing kill because it has a high expected value to be a protective role" is a good reason not to lynch that slot

today

.

No, I mean the argument that scum will even bother attempting to kill them. I find that unlikely, and without that point in their favor...better to get rid of them.

Plus they could totally be The Operative or Jubal Early and thus a SK type role, so removing them lowers the KPN of the game.

-Cerb

[Jingle]

Plus they could totally be The Operative or Jubal Early and thus a SK type role, so removing them lowers the KPN of the game.

This, actually, is a point in favor of why they would be shot.

From scum who is not aligned with them's position, they're either probably a town protective, or another scumteam. Obviously, they'd prefer to shoot the town protective, but if they take out a member of an unaligned faction then it's not bad news for them because that's one less potential incoming bullet. The more unaligned scum teams there are (which, if you're right and the role is unaligned scum, that number is likely to be very high) the better the option of shooting other unaligned scum becomes.

Besides, that fails to address the issue that I don't think it's MORE likely for NR/Tails to be scum than say Menno or NDS. Just similarly likely. And it is MORE likely to be shot.

Also, KPN on town, at least for tonight, can be presumed to be 2.

[ruru]

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

McMenno (6):	BuJaber (2082),	Flicker (2613),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2814),	CheekyTeeky (2867),	Chara (2905),	Jingle (2933),
Toogeloo (3):	Elsa Jay (2765),	Chickadee (2780),	Gamma Emerald (2792),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Chickadee (1):	Toogeloo (2872),
Aristophanes (1):	McMenno (2884),
Tails (1):	Reasonably Rational (2914),
Not voting (3):	Tails,	Malakittens,	Aristophanes (2912),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

[Elsa Jay]

Well, if we're going with the McMenno wagon, the next 2 votes on it has to be Toog and Mala before the wagon is at L-1

Mala: because theyre legit a Lyncher who'll need to quickhammer to win.

Toog: because he openly said he is going to hammer anyone at L-1 because he thinks we're "pussyfooting" and stuff.

Otherwise we can consider it at L-1 now.

[Reasonably Rational]

Hmm.

Why are we lynching menno again?

-Cerb

[Elsa Jay]

Because Jaber made it so we wouldn't murder him instead. And Toog is going full blown crazy.

[Reasonably Rational]

3rd party is awesome tho. Oh, we can still be friends Mala, no worry about that. Just let it be known you are also the one I'm using as a Get out of Lynch free card for a day when they start wanting to kill off the Neuts.

You and Mala should play this game the way Cerb and I played in Protomen. We were a 3rd party faction with a partner who could win with the town (which you can do, and mala can

maybe

do if we power through scum quickly enough). We realized immediately that we could win with the town only if we won fast, and we nailed it.

Sometimes 3rd party really can play for town's win con. We certainly did with every intent (and success) right from the start of that game.

So ... do the same and we won't ever have to rope you to avoid you choosing the easy win if the game goes to a kingmaker or M/LYLO situation.

~D

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum,

and

the flip acts as a check on Chick.

[Jingle]

I literally just realized the value of crumbing HoB as HoB. I feel dumb.

VOTE: Tails

[Flicker]

I literally just realized the value of crumbing HoB as HoB. I feel dumb.

Care to explain it to me, then?

[CheekyTeeky]

If Gamma got shot overnight, for example, CT and RR would have been good possibilities for the scum who shot him.

I'm pretty sure I wouldn't overtly townread him/make it obvious if I were scum.

[CheekyTeeky]

Oh, also.

This needs to die. If this doesn't die, then you're all bad and you should feel bad.

VOTE: Tails

-Cerb

I wish you were voicing this opinion before he literally shat on me for being stupid. Speaking of, I don't think it's a coincidence that the two most useless town clears are aggressive and in ??? Territory relative to the other town clears.

[CheekyTeeky]

I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles

This was a hidden reason behind my push. I didn't really want to bring it to anyones attention in case noone else had noticed.

[CheekyTeeky]

Yeah ok I'm down with this. Glad I wasn't just being dumb.

VOTE: Tails

[Chara]

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum, and the flip acts as a check on Chick.

how long were you sitting on that one in your PT? :>

[Jingle]

I literally just realized the value of crumbing HoB as HoB. I feel dumb.

Care to explain it to me, then?

They had a traitor that didn't know their identity. If we assume that they were told their traitor wasn't told their identity, then signalling to them that NR was HoB would mean that the traitor could actually protect them.

[Reasonably Rational]

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum, and the flip acts as a check on Chick.

how long were you sitting on that one in your PT? :>

When did I first tell the game that the slot was almost certainly scum? Before that, obviously.

~D