Micro 829: The Coalition [Endgame]

[northsidegal]

Moderator Notes: If I have made an error, please inform me.

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Coalition 1.8
Voter	Coalition
Irrelephant11	skitter30	Chara	Almost50	Irrelephant11
Chara	Chara	Aubrey	Almost50	Irrelephant11
no lunch	no lunch	Aubrey	skitter30	Chara
Aubrey	Chara	Skygazer	Almost50
Almost50	Almost50	Irrelephant11	skitter30	Chara
skitter30	skitter30	Chara	Aubrey	Almost50
Gamma Emerald 1	Aubrey	Gamma Emerald	no lunch	Chara	Almost50
My Milked Eek	My Milked Eek	no lunch	Chara	Gamma Emerald
Skygazer	Aubrey	Gamma Emerald	skitter30	no lunch
(expired on 2018-11-08 22:53:59)

Votecount 1.8
Vote Target	Wagon
Gamma Emerald (2):	skitter30 (322)	Chara (434)
Irrelephant11 (1):	no lunch (19)
Almost50 (1):	Almost50 (78)
Skygazer (1):	Irrelephant11 (198)
Not Voting (4): Aubrey, My Milked Eek, Skygazer, Gamma Emerald
(expired on 2018-11-08 22:53:59)

[Irrelephant11]

Irrel I thought you Scumread me at least a little? Why are you questioning votes on me like that?

You're pretty null. I've scumread you incorrectly before, so I'm trying to balance my "don't love his play" with "well that's how I feel about town!Gamma too, so"

[Almost50]

and like it's D1

we have a 15% chance of getting a correct coalition randomly and even less than that because towns suck D1

im trying not to stress too much over my coalition as long as we have an appropriate amount of info to work with going forward

pedit: HEAL: no lunch
townie reaction?
i dont think your reads are bad necessarily i just dont like me/gamma/a50 being so low
but i feel like scum wouldnt be hurt that they were accused of bad reads

just wrote a post about this quote and then lost it.
point is, in a regular game i wouldn't discount their earlier shading of each other, as it could easily be distancing. i this game, making each other look bad is just very risky.

Not too risky IMHO. If one flips the other is considered semi-cleared, and it's a Mountainous setup. Worst case scenario is we lynch from the 4 outside the coalition and that's the scum p. Then they kill from that pool too making it a 5 lynch pool (the coalition) and 2 confirmed townies outside of it. Next we miclynch on D2 and another kill on N2 = 4+1. A repeat on D3/N3 = LyLo.. 3 players in the coalition who are all suspects and no one outside of it, so no conf!townies.

[skitter30]

@skitter30, just reviewing your game history with Almost50 it appears you've played together twice. I did this via mobile so might have missed something. Could you please let me know if you have played together before?

Open 711: Stack the Deck
Open 713: Jungle Republic

open 711 - tvt, first game with him; i misread him as scum

open 713 - t v mafia; multiball; had him as some flavor as scum pretty much as soon as he repped in

brass's pick your poison - tvt he played on his ap alt; i scumread him initially midway through the game i figured out ap = a50 and i had him as town immediately once i figured it out

arcangel's jungle republic - ap game; t v wolf; overnight between day1 and day2 i figured out i wasn't townreading him and started day2 trying to get him lynched

splatoon mafia - tvs - he played on the alt jjd and i didn't know it was him and read him wrong but i don't really count this

teacher's diffusion of power - tvt, that's the one i linked earlier, had him on page2 as town

the worst's pick your posion x|y - ap game, svs

[skitter30]

If I had to take a guess, and we all threw out our votes, I bet a wagon would form between Gamma and Sky

(maybe NL by the sound of things but whatever)

My initial like about Sky was their read on Gamma. I liked the fact they brought up a read that nobody else had mentioned by that point. I don’t see scum TR’ing Gamma that early, unless they are partners.

i'm feeling a little wary/paranoid about the general consensus regarding milked/gamma/sky not being townread

[Gamma Emerald]

Ok, I guess no lunch does feel shady recently but I’m not sure whether it’s from being scum or being inexperienced.
On Eek, I really just don’t get his play in any sense. Lurk, pop in sheeping the coalition consensus, lurk more? Idgi

why do you think i'm misreading you?

Eek's play is pretty null and not great as either alignment, currently.

pedit: good point on Sky having no lunch in her pool. need to look at the circumstance.

also the last post is interesting. still have this nagging feeling i'm wrong on Gamma. :<

I think you’re misreading me because I’ve been lurking off Mafia to do other things (Fire Emblem Heroes), so my effort isn’t really shining through

[Chara]

Not too risky IMHO. If one flips the other is considered semi-cleared, and it's a Mountainous setup. Worst case scenario is we lynch from the 4 outside the coalition and that's the scum p. Then they kill from that pool too making it a 5 lynch pool (the coalition) and 2 confirmed townies outside of it. Next we miclynch on D2 and another kill on N2 = 4+1. A repeat on D3/N3 = LyLo.. 3 players in the coalition who are all suspects and no one outside of it, so no conf!townies.

this assumes one of them makes it into the coalition. i think it's too risky because their play if teamed lowers both of their chances of even being in it.

[skitter30]

For the record, since Skygazer has effectively given up by the looks of things

: skitter30 has exhibited some anti-scum-skitter tells through this game. I flatly refuse to go into what they are until Skygazer has returned, but my heal on her was neither whimsical nor an attempt to bait scum.

i'm not sure that i like that you framed 'not being active for a few days' as 'effectively given up'

[Gamma Emerald]

Irrel I thought you Scumread me at least a little? Why are you questioning votes on me like that?

You're pretty null. I've scumread you incorrectly before, so I'm trying to balance my "don't love his play" with "well that's how I feel about town!Gamma too, so"

I see
This makes me feel better about you
HURT: no lunch
HEAL: Irrelephant
Whilst I still have doubts about no lunch being scummy I’m fine switching him out for Irrel now

[Almost50]

this assumes one of them makes it into the coalition. i think it's too risky because their play if teamed lowers both of their chances of even being in it.

Well, if they're not a team, how do you decide which is which? And why do we even care when we have at least 6 more townies to pick from?

You know what? let's assume they're both TOWN. We still have 5 TOWN slots to pick for the coalition and win the game.

Now what if the game doesn't end? With them BOTH out of the coalition we know for a fact they can't be teamed together. That's a step ahead.

[skitter30]

I feel dangerous, by having skitter this high. I believe that she has exhibited tells which, for her, are non-scum indicative. I'm sorry that I have not been forthcoming with a full explanation of this, but I believe it is still beneficial for me to try to engage Skygazer on this subject before heavily towncasing skitter (if a town case is necessary!)

i'm kinda interested in this; i think it's interesting to learn how/why people read me the way they do

HURT: no lunch

wow all ur null and below are lynch bait

i mean i think she has a point with this; the concensus non-townreads are people who are often perceived as lynchbait

and i feel a little ???? wary about that

[Chara]

i could have sworn i had a lot of games with Gamma. now i'm trying to find them and failing. pretty sure they exist, it's just a lot of threads and i'm no good at bookkeeping.

[Irrelephant11]

skitter are you still as confident as you were upon rep in that A50 is town
Do we think chara has any chance to be scum?

[skitter30]

You liked the fact that skitter did not appear concerned with being in the winning coalition.
Do you believe this would be difficult for scum-skitter to fake? Do you believe that scum would show their hand by trying to wedge their way directly into the coalition--particularly with skitter's level of skill?

if my opinion is relevant, i don't think scum!me would have trouble looking unconcerned about not being in the winning coalition

like i might actually be concerned but i can project being not-concerned if that makes sense

[Almost50]

You may be looking under just "Chara"? Try "Not Chara" and "Almost Chara"

[Chara]

Well, if they're not a team, how do you decide which is which? And why do we even care when we have at least 6 more townies to pick from?

You know what? let's assume they're both TOWN. We still have 5 TOWN slots to pick for the coalition and win the game.

Now what if the game doesn't end? With them BOTH out of the coalition we know for a fact they can't be teamed together. That's a step ahead.

them not being a team doesn't matter unless our coalition fails with one of them in it. as of right now i don't find it too relevant, but it was something i wanted to save for my ISO.

pedit: i looked under all three. unfortunately i'm on my phone and Gamma himself posts in a lot of threads.

[Irrelephant11]

skitter doing her best to shed all those pesky townreads

[skitter30]

I would be less concerned had the game where she pocketed you in spite of your own neighbourhood not been so recent...

i guess i'm a little confused why you're telling sky she should be paranoid of me but you're not really being that paranoid of me rn?

did you read the entireity of that game?

[skitter30]

i mean

two dimensional logic sounds a lot like my towngame

the towntell that I'll state publicly (because I hinted at this earlier) is t

own skitter tends to be paranoid of easy townreads in her from my experience

this is fair i think

[Chara]

i mean i think she has a point with this; the concensus non-townreads are people who are often perceived as lynchbait

and i feel a little ???? wary about that

for me it's because it's dangerous to have lynchbait in the coalition. it'd be different if one of them was being very towny.
we can afford some scummy town (two, actually).

[skitter30]

@Aubrey: I won't even ask you to include me. Just pick Irrelephant and skitter and I will give you my vote.

^^^^^ feels very town too

[skitter30]

let's play a game called: am i unwilling to townread Sky because she's scummy, though i'm mildly townreading her last string of posts with Almost,

or am i most suspicious of her because she's the only player who doesn't have me in her coalition?

381 pinged me though. "i'm playing to my town meta, somebody notice that!"
if you recognize your own logic as two-dimensional, are you happy with continuing that line of logic?

pedit: no way! i'm not done yet. i'd love to immediately win.

why does this make you suspicious of her?

[Almost50]

@skitter: time for you to heal Irrel, btw. Trust me.

[Chara]

I think you’re misreading me because I’ve been lurking off Mafia to do other things (Fire Emblem Heroes), so my effort isn’t really shining through

in that case, do you have any time to put in more effort? right now i'm concerned about you popping in with comments instead of really engaging, and having reads that you haven't put too much thought into.
those could both be as you say, lazier town Gamma, but it's pretty hard for me to tell the difference.

which is why i've been trying to find our games together, because i seem to remember scum Gamma trying hard in games.

pedit: it doesn't really, skitter. Sky wasn't actually the only player not townreading me until very recently in the game, it was mostly a joke.

[skitter30]

@Gamma: Can I convince you to HURT no lunch and HEAL me & Irrelephant instead?

Yeah I can
HEAL: Almost50 but idk why no lunch shouldn’t be in/Irrel should?

meh maybe you're town too