A Story Revisited (Anything uPick): Day 6

[RadiantCowbells]

A Story Revisited

Votecount 3.177:

Mastina (4): Firebringer, Varsoon, Nero Cain, Whemestar
Varsoon (4): Northsidegal, Creature, Porkens, Skygazer
Aristophanes (1): Chickadee
Jingle (1): jjh927
jjh927 (1): Nicorobin
Nicorobin (1): Invisibility
Northsidegal (1): Shiro
Porkens (1): Vecna
Vecna (0):
Firebringer (0):
Chickadee (0):
Gamma Emerald (0):
Invisibility (0):
KuroiXHF (0):
Lady Angel: (0):
Whemestar (0):
Skygazer (0):
Creature (0):
Nero Cain (0):
The Meme Men (0):

Not Voting: Sora, Aristophanes, KuroiXHF, Mastina, Lady Angel, Jingle, Gamma Emerald

With 20 alive it's 11 to lynch.

The day will end in (expired on 2018-11-04 17:00:00).

[Jingle]

i think ur over focus on role interactions is ur blind spot jingle.

and if i was scum i could run circles around you easily by bullshitting roles to get you to do what i want.

My towngame, ranked in order of skill:

1. Setup.
2. Town Glue.
3. Town Leader.
4. Obvtowning.
5. Reads.

I'll own that. There are a handful of players I can read well consistently. The vast majority left the site a long time ago. I derptunnel on stupid all the time.

Mastina is possibly the only player on site that I know well enough to be this confident on who hasn't siteflaked. I literally can't remember the last time I misread mastina's play outside of GiF's fallout where I started out deathtunnelling her slot's previous occupant and then reversed my read just in time to be nightkilled. And yeah, even still, I'm planning around the cases where I'm wrong on someone who is so terrified of my ability at reading them that when ETL and I joined a game and randed town together they told the mod (also in this game) that scum literally had no chance.

As far as setup spec goes I don't mind claiming to be one of the best on the site. I'm not infallible. I'm not some magical god of breaking setups. But I'm damn good. And what I've argued is objectively the optimal town play from the information I've got.

[Varsoon]

I like your confidence a lot, Jingle, but I'm actually not sure what your plan is anymore.

[Jingle]

Since I've replaced in, though, every player's been so focused on the mechanics, mastina this, nico that and so it's been impossible for me to really engage without engaging there.
I dunno what to do to break free.

I can work with this.

First, unvote so that you're not literally the only viable lynch if jj uses his scumclaim ability.

Second, do you have any real townreads?

[Varsoon]

UNVOTE:

You're town.
Gamma's town.
Nero's town.
Nosferatu's town.
jjh is town (unless nico and mastina flip town).
Kuroi's probably town.

I think that's about where I am with it right now.

[Jingle]

5 clears then lynch mastina to confirm. If we get to a low number of players (13/14) with no scum lynched and less than 5 clears, lynch mastina anyway.

If scum shoots the clears, they're literally shooting in the pool of players we would have lynched anyway, while extending the viable use of mastina's role.
If scum shoots mastina, they've solved the contention and also confirmed the players in question.
If scum leaves that be, they've given us a townfirm pool that takes us to ridiculous levels of game solve.
If mastina is scum, we lynch her before we're close to worried about endgame AND there is presumably some amount of hidden power that town has to catch the other scum in the meantime. Given that there is no reason for claims, there's no chance that scum can use said claims to narrow down and eliminate townpower prematurely.

It's not complicated. It's not holding the thread hostage. It requires nothing more than not quickhammering. Incredibly high town EV.

[Lady Angel]

So who has mastina 'cleared'
And why aren't those players dead from nightkills?
Do you people even stop to think
Do you?

You probably don't know this since you replaced in late, but on day 1 we had a desperado shoot town, giving us a true clear (I consider Kuroi and chick semiclears right now), and scum actually shot that N1, followed by N2 not having a kill. So your post kind of falls apart because the only kill scum has to its name so far was a townclear anyways. And it's entirely possible that scum could've shot Kuroi last night, he claimed something close to deathproof (either deathproof or some sort of coming-back-from-the-dead role, if it's the second then they shot elsewhere and failed) and was one of the players Mastina's semicleared right now. Chick probably isn't a threat for them since her role seems to be limited to giving out music videos (Would appreciate one, I'm always looking for good music) and she's not active. Shooting Mastina is a bad idea since it inflates the game with more townclears if she flips town and would clear up a huge amount of suspicion surrounding her and her role that takes attention off of scum.

As an aside, I would also like to see Mastina gladiate more active players for maximum ability usage (JJH and/or Jingle first, preferably), since a cleared town that's actually active in a game where there is a doc in the setup would probably be a huge boon to a game that's more or less stalled.

[Varsoon]

5 clears then lynch mastina to confirm. If we get to a low number of players (13/14) with no scum lynched and less than 5 clears, lynch mastina anyway.

If scum shoots the clears, they're literally shooting in the pool of players we would have lynched anyway, while extending the viable use of mastina's role.
If scum shoots mastina, they've solved the contention and also confirmed the players in question.
If scum leaves that be, they've given us a townfirm pool that takes us to ridiculous levels of game solve.
If mastina is scum, we lynch her before we're close to worried about endgame AND there is presumably some amount of hidden power that town has to catch the other scum in the meantime. Given that there is no reason for claims, there's no chance that scum can use said claims to narrow down and eliminate townpower prematurely.

It's not complicated. It's not holding the thread hostage. It requires nothing more than not quickhammering. Incredibly high town EV.

So what if Mastina's scum and it's just a regular gladiate and not alignment-based at all?

[Varsoon]

@LA: Thanks for clearing that up for me. I missed the desperado thing. I haven't really read all that much from before I replaced in. :/

[Jingle]

Of those, Kuroi is replacing. Nero, Creature (new Nos) and I have given full reads lists, so looking at those and seeing where you agree and disagree is probably a good starting place. Additionally, Chick is a 'clear', so it's probably worth looking at her reads as well.

Of the players you aren't townreading, FB and mastina are the only really active posters. (Holy shit, we have like 6 active posters out of 20.) Why aren't you townreading them? Should you be if they are town?

Of the non active players, which ones do you expect to be active as town?

[Jingle]

5 clears then lynch mastina to confirm. If we get to a low number of players (13/14) with no scum lynched and less than 5 clears, lynch mastina anyway.

If scum shoots the clears, they're literally shooting in the pool of players we would have lynched anyway, while extending the viable use of mastina's role.
If scum shoots mastina, they've solved the contention and also confirmed the players in question.
If scum leaves that be, they've given us a townfirm pool that takes us to ridiculous levels of game solve.
If mastina is scum, we lynch her before we're close to worried about endgame AND there is presumably some amount of hidden power that town has to catch the other scum in the meantime. Given that there is no reason for claims, there's no chance that scum can use said claims to narrow down and eliminate townpower prematurely.

It's not complicated. It's not holding the thread hostage. It requires nothing more than not quickhammering. Incredibly high town EV.

So what if Mastina's scum and it's just a regular gladiate and not alignment-based at all?

We have whatever other power town has to make up for all of the negative and proscum utility we've seen, we have a guaranteed scumlynch, we have a shitton of wagon information to analyze, and we still have several mislynches.

[Jingle]

FWIW, from not my perspective I'm the optimal clear.

Confirming town me confirms the presence of a loud doc in the game.

[Varsoon]

I dunno, just seems too good to be true? In my experience, that's when closed setups bite you in the ass.
Anyway.
FB's pushing on Mastina feels NAI, like I can't parse if it's coming from genuine town frustration or just something to do to create plausible mislynch deniability if Mastina flips town or distancing if Mastina flips scum. I guess I haven't looked at FB that hard despite them being active?

As for Mastina, I thought this was town play from Mastina coming in to the game but the way they handled the whole Nico thing drives me up the wall and pings me mighty hard. Mastina's took 'in charge', if that makes sense? I also really, really don't like getting duped by scum gambits and this all has scum gambit written all over it so I'm going to be dubious of that slot until we get a hard clear on it anyways. We've butted heads in the past, though, when I was absolutely sure they were scum based on mechanics-oriented play, so maybe I'm wrong? Ugh. I just don't like it. Is that fine to say? I don't like or agree with Mastina's play and that colors a lot of how I read Mastina's interactions.

I'd expect more activity from Aristophanes and Meme Men's slot (Rylai and Lina's usually a fairly active hydra as town, iirc)
I'd also say NSG but apparently NSG's rebranded as this cool lurkposter now? I don't like it.

I'll give Nero, Nos, and Chickadee a look when I have some more time--I should'a gone to bed like 3 hours ago. Gotta go to my father in law's birthday dinner tomorrow but it's gonna be like an all-day thing so blah. Hence the V/LA through the weekend. But here I am, 3 AM, playin' mafia.

[Varsoon]

EBWOP: I might be confusing Mastina for Pirate Mollie in regards to some meta stuff--tried to look back for a game where I really doubled down on a scumread of Mastina for mechanics-based play and it was Mollie instead, meta's whack, memory sucks, maybe disregard that?

[Gamma Emerald]

also mastina reads are just complete and utter garbage.

to follow any of them is just shooting town in the foot.

What are your full reads then?

i don't have full reads.
i just know hers are bad

like she is def the worst player in this game right now. and I hold more weight to any of ur reads than hers, gamma.

Despite the fact it’s literally impossible for her to be 100% wrong unless the mod lied about how many scum there are?

[Gamma Emerald]

if i was rc i would regret a lot of design choices of this game tbh. which is why i think he is lacking in the modding part but that is pure speculation.

Yeah, I think he was rushed putting it together. He modconfirmed didn't have flavor for a No-Lynch.

Wait a second...
Eureka!
I have a new piece of evidence I’d like to present.
So RC didn’t have a flavor planned out for a no lynch. This is despite telling mastina she could have no lynch be a result of her gladiator. So this tells me that was an on-the-fly call.
Here’s where things get weird. In my Earthbound Mafia I also had a point where I made that on the fly call of “you can no lynch during a gladiator”. This was because I felt I’d made it too powerful and wanted to fix it (and I already know I sucked wrt designing that game, so don’t go screaming how shitty of a mod I am at me).
Now while this might not be the case I wanted to present this since I saw a connection I couldn’t just ignore.

[Gamma Emerald]

UNVOTE:

You're town.
Gamma's town.
Nero's town.
Nosferatu's town.
jjh is town (unless nico and mastina flip town).
Kuroi's probably town.

I think that's about where I am with it right now.

Idr you explaining these anywhere, could you do so or link where you did this?

[Varsoon]

Jingle's town for proposing an actual strat and driving game engagement through this thick morass of shitposting
Gamma's town for actually having independent agency and putting in what reads as genuine effort to figure shit out
Nero's a gut read, 'cus when Nero annoys me and keeps me at arm's length, it's town Nero for me.
Nos is another gut read, mostly based on attitude of play lining up with meta expectations.
JJH's whole re:Nico thing convinced me he's town. The assuredness and claim don't come from scum, imo.
Kuroi between the soft-clear stuff and the catch-up into replace-out. Scum Kuroi would probably just hang out in that soft-clear zone and try to skate into a win on it. I try not to read alignment into replacements though so ehhhh this could go different depending on Mastina flip.

[Jingle]

Sounds like you have a pretty good set of suspects to take a closer look at. Sounds like you have a pretty good set of townreads you can engage with over differences in opinion. Sounds like you have a pretty solid starting place for getting your head into the game.

And everyone else, the same process applies to you as well.

Additionally, if you're still worried that I'm just taking things for granted, allow me to share with you how deep the Jingle paranoia train goes. I'm seriously considering a possible balance solution of 6 godfathers and what town would need to have to counter that. Despite that, I haven't found a potential scumteam that my plan isn't decently equipped to fight (at least better than not following it) that isn't better served by already messing with the chain of clears.

And to be clear, I expect a single godfather out of this setup if my finger is on the pulse halfway as well as I think it is.

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t want to work on reads rn
But I think Varsoon’s reads are okay rn
I seem to be in a stage of being rather open to suggestion cos mastina’s reads also swayed me a fair bit

[Gamma Emerald]

5 clears then lynch mastina to confirm. If we get to a low number of players (13/14) with no scum lynched and less than 5 clears, lynch mastina anyway.

If scum shoots the clears, they're literally shooting in the pool of players we would have lynched anyway, while extending the viable use of mastina's role.
If scum shoots mastina, they've solved the contention and also confirmed the players in question.
If scum leaves that be, they've given us a townfirm pool that takes us to ridiculous levels of game solve.
If mastina is scum, we lynch her before we're close to worried about endgame AND there is presumably some amount of hidden power that town has to catch the other scum in the meantime. Given that there is no reason for claims, there's no chance that scum can use said claims to narrow down and eliminate townpower prematurely.

It's not complicated. It's not holding the thread hostage. It requires nothing more than not quickhammering. Incredibly high town EV.

Change those numbers from 15/16 and I’d be pretty okay with this tbh

[Vecna]

So who has mastina 'cleared'
And why aren't those players dead from nightkills?
Do you people even stop to think
Do you?

N1 a towncleared person was killed
N2 we do not know what happened

[Vecna]

FWIW, from not my perspective I'm the optimal clear.

Confirming town me confirms the presence of a loud doc in the game.

The mechanical implications of that are really weird though:
-Why have a town mastina-role and a town loud-doc in the same setup? Extremely broken at face value
-If the last point is still true; why have scum not used the power that can offset that balance to kill Mastina last night?
-Why on earth was this loud doc on you?

Leads me strongly to believe that one of several of the following has to be true:
-Either Mastina or the loud doc have to be scum
-Or scum was not trying to kill JJH but Mastina last night, and this is a scum jingle rolefishing.....
-Or scum decided to not kill Mastina, or any of her clears, to raise suspicion and mount a massive lynch attempt on Mastina today
-Or scum has a watcher-type role that is meant for them to eliminate any protectives on Mastina

[Vecna]

Also, im not a big fan of Firebringers "your reads suck balls" against Mastina. I felt those reads were actually pretty decent overall, minus a bunch of tidbits. Sure were a lot of townreads though.

[Vecna]

Anyways, I am back to wanting Nico gladiated. Her role will be super useful if she is confirmed town, and nearly everyone is suspicious of that slot, so its a very useful gladiate. If mastina town-firms her, people also have a lot less reason to not show their role to her that way.

The flipside is: I doubt she'll be town.

The way she handled the guiltying does not sit well with me. Why would you push that wagon -that high- if you know you will get a result to your query in 48 hours that will confirm whether your suspicions are right or not. I went through some of those games Mastina's linked and I do not see such crap as her normal play. She just stamps her feet if people ignore her generally, not go to that length to get what she wants.

The second point is the fact she suddenly got no result. Mastina -WAS- targetable last night. RC finally came back to me, and even though I have no clue wtf happened, Mastina stated she did get the msg of my visit in the end, so it did work. She also got the visit from Nico. There is no mechanical reason whatsoever that she wouldnt have gotten a result.

There really is no bad outcome of gladiating NicoRobin.

VOTE: NicoRobin