Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[Alonzo]

Grrr.
Keeping up from mobile at work rn, post in a few hours

[ruru]

to avoid having a rb guilty on him

this doesn't work that way, it's not tracker

his decision only matters if he's not the target

-> by giving 'rb-guilties' he got at least one mislynch out of it, and again, the fact that there hasn't been a rb inno anywhere (or even a demonstrable rb in 5 nights) is incredibly strange.

I'm not sure that non-alonzo scum sacrifice as much by nokilling as you think, an inno and an nk roughly cancel each other out when there's one scum remaining

like compare lynch+nokill+lynch+nokill vs. lynch+kill+inno and they're quite similar

the complications are: rb target getting shot, whether or not the kill is on literal conftown, whether or not scum want to kill for a reason other than towniness, specifics of evens/odds, etc.

whether or not alonzo is scum, scum might value the lack of inno more highly because an inno is literal conftown rather than like my slot or whatever

also suppose scum for example expect us to fight to the death in xylo based on our d1: they might prefer nokilling because lynching removes scummy players while shooting replaces towny players with conftown scummy players, but maybe the conftown scummy players are more likely to choose correctly in xylo

like I think it's quite notable that various dead players are scumreading enigma and we've been his biggest defenders

-> however to fake an rb on enigma n2 he had to be banking on enigma not being a pr

oh, I don't think enigma gave a hypo-inno d2 so maybe this is a reasonable assumption

-> like from scum!alonzo's perspective: he's avoided giving innos for three nights and got the performer mislynch out of the double 'rb-guilty'

I agree that innoing a dead player is scumreadable and that it points to {enigma, alonzo} but it doesn't really point to alonzo more than enigma because enigma would know 100% how to get alonzo to inno a dead player

like I mentioned, killing and nokilling both lead to a similarly hard game for scum and I don't think one of them is clearly better here?

[skitter30]

i'll be around later to read through that and respond

it's prob just enigma

bleh idk

i really hate traitors; they mess up how i view associatives and gamestate reads

[ruru]

I guess I left my underlying idea mostly unstated as to why I'm saying these things:

yes, alonzo's results are

weird

and unlikely

we need to establish more than them just being

weird

, we need to establish that it's

weirder

for town.alonzo than for scum.alonzo and I think non-alonzo scum have plenty of motivation to nokill too for exactly the same reasons

in sky's vaping mafia there was a town fruit vendor who targeted two dead players on n1/n2, like these things do happen

and I'm willing to consider individually whether xyz is scum-indiciative but I think lumping everything into "no observable action on five nights" is sort of bad because they're not all the same circumstance, like I do think innoing a dead player last night is legitimately scum-indicative but they're not all that

[ruru]

also yeah I don't understand this game at all.

like ever since the tw replace the game just makes no sense, it legitimately should have been nm+tw+bujaber by posting

anyway enigma scum feels wrong but so does everything else:

1. you became a highposting scum overnight
- granted I think out of game you exaggerate how incompetent you are at scum, I don't think pushing things like you believe them really

hardclears

you, and I do see realtime interaction in your scum meta, even when people are actively scumreading you. I do think your pushes on town in this game are towny though
- I still just think post count doesn't lie on these things unless you're tw/mathdino/rc/someone with an established meta of highposting as scum I've never seen a single example of someone who lurks as tpr and sometimes lurks as vt and always lurks as scum suddenly being the second highest poster as scum
- I would love another reason to tr you but after everything that's happened in this game I don't really expect people to give me good reasons to tr them anymore

2. alonzo gamethrew
- I mean it's possible I guess
- I don't have any other super strong reasons to tr him, although I think he was fairly towny under pressure d2
- ....

3. bujaber pushed his partner all game
- while I haven't seen this in what I've read of his meta, I have seen that he's good at manipulating associatives, and enigma could be traitor anyway
- of all the meta tells, bussing / not bussing is the one nearly everyone is aware of as being a thing (and of being 0 ev in a game theory sense) and therefore the one people are most likely to play against so I don't really take it super seriously
- I doubted my scumread on pin in sharing is caring because he hardbussed jjh when he went to great lengths to distance without actually bussing in 1859, but he was scum
- enigma's "guile-less-ness" is a pretty effective way to avoid both the lynch and the nk as traitor
- I still townread it though lol
- Get me out
- Dead players would lynch enigma here and I'm clearly bad at the game

[Enigma]

So i was holding back a bit to see some discussion as I was trying to understand the game a bit by wincons and objectives. Also I was lazy.

1. Alonzo is scum:
His wincon today is to see anyone lynched.

2. Ruru is scum: It means Alonzo is rb.
If she got someone else lynched she would need to deal with either trying to dodge Alzono's rb (50% chance) or NK and try to mislynch again the next day (ouch)
Her best chance of a win is to get Alonzo lynched today. If she wants a no lynch then she couldn't kill alonzo (so she would have to kill in me/skitter tonight) which would make tomorrow a sad event for someone who wants to get out of the game.

3. Skitter is scum (same condition for me): Alonzo and ruru both TPRs
She would need to get Alonzo lynched, as even if she mislynched today she would need to deal with 50% chance for dodging a rb to win the game which is a terrible position to be put in.

--

Based on activity so far today, I'm leaning towards ruru being town as she doesn't seem to be playing to a scum!ruru wincon. Will have to think a bit more about skitter/alonzo

[Enigma]

Reading through the BuJ/me associatives ...

BuJ continued to push me iirc on D3 after the massclaims (but before his lynch was likely).

1. If we were group scum
This is terrible play as he becomes the last scum forced to deal with a rb (he can't kill) that can provide innos ... like he makes his difficult miserable. Why do this to yourself?

2. If I was traitor
This means scum took day talk for sure based on the flips. Imo is a terrible mod choice for only 2 scum ... but meh who knows.
If you were group scum, wouldn't you be cautious of accidentally lynching your traitor ... plus I would like to think I would be signalling like fuck off I'm on your team. Also yes traitors suck.

[Enigma]

have I mentioned I hate this game

Lol tell me about it ... I'm still stuck here too and apparently now I have to deal with the added fun of defending myself in mylo/lylo. Also, work is sending me to places without internet reception for 2 weeks in late nov so I need this game to be finished by then pls

After the lynch, I was kinda hoping I was rb last night (if that was a thing) and then coast through the rest of the game like mr creature.

[ruru]

BuJ continued to push me iirc on D3 after the massclaims (but before his lynch was likely).

I'm not sure if this is really accurate:

actually I don't want to lynch bujaber yet

I want to drag out the day for more content from performer

UNVOTE:

Performer- I townread skitter because of a combination of meta (she is posting a lot while maintaining her vague confused, and nullish stances) her meta is actually infuriating and allows her to safely coast as scum but she's pretty much correct about her meta from what I've seen.
Also there are a few fourth wall breaking reasons to TR her, like the fact that she, in the mafia thread of pyp x/y implied that she is scum in 2 games. That one and some other game that isn't this. That post was made after this game starts. I can see her fooling us by imitating her town meta, but I don't see her fooling herself or forgetting she's scum in this game.

Her saying she would have killed ruru by now is kinda bs if you ask me because it's only day 3 in a setup with an IC and possible PRs and ruru's play, especially with a strong townread on her would not have justified an NK. But I do absolutely believe that she would not keep ruru alive until endgame if she were scum.

VOTE: Enigma

Ruru and Alonzo prove their towniness by getting killed..

That leaves {ele, performer} as last scum.

I highly doubt Korina is scum here.

[Alonzo]

I'm pretty made up its Enigma at this point.

If you flip red at this point skitter you earned it my friend.

Of course Enig's gonna say I need a lynch to win as scum, but FMPOV i need a lynch to win as town, as scum can still force a draw from this position.

Im ready to Vote.

[Enigma]

@ruru
I don't get the quotes? It seems like BuJ was still pushing me and he was L-2 before your unvote, and L-3 when he voted me again in 2725? This didn't mean his lynch was secured.

[Enigma]

I'm pretty made up its Enigma at this point.

If you flip red at this point skitter you earned it my friend.

Of course Enig's gonna say I need a lynch to win as scum, but FMPOV i need a lynch to win as town, as scum can still force a draw from this position.

Im ready to Vote.

Umm FYPOV it is better to no lynch if you are town, because you have another night with the rb and then better chances of hitting scum tonight and tomorrow day.
Like no lyching forces scum between a very tough time tomorrow to win (they will probably lose) or stalling for a draw.

[ruru]

scum can still force a draw from this position.

okay now I'm somewhat spooked that you wanted no lynch earlier but now you want to lynch enigma

like yes this is true and it's why personally I haven't bothered trying to no lynch today but the fact that you wanted it earlier and now sadfgldfghl;dfgh'

[ruru]

alonzo do you have any meta case that you would definitively not gamethrow by fakeclaiming rb as scum here?

any thoughts on this?

[Alonzo]

I'm pretty made up its Enigma at this point.

If you flip red at this point skitter you earned it my friend.

Of course Enig's gonna say I need a lynch to win as scum, but FMPOV i need a lynch to win as town, as scum can still force a draw from this position.

Im ready to Vote.

Umm FYPOV it is better to no lynch if you are town, because you have another night with the rb and then better chances of hitting scum tonight and tomorrow day.
Like no lyching forces scum between a very tough time tomorrow to win (they will probably lose) or stalling for a draw.

I get the impression the way this game has been scum will happily accept a draw. I'd re visit the no lych, but I'd wager scum just wont kill and we will be back here again very soon.
I'v no evidence I'm the RB, I'v no Evidence ruru is the BG

scum can still force a draw from this position.

okay now I'm somewhat spooked that you wanted no lynch earlier but now you want to lynch enigma

like yes this is true and it's why personally I haven't bothered trying to no lynch today but the fact that you wanted it earlier and now sadfgldfghl;dfgh'

alonzo do you have any meta case that you would definitively not gamethrow by fakeclaiming rb as scum here?

any thoughts on this?

I don't really know what your saying here? Would I cheat? No, I'm town RB.

How would it be a gamethrow for scum me? (im a basic bitch when it comes to setup spec)

[Enigma]

Uggh so one of ruru/alonzo fake claiming means that they are the traitor and they did this without coordination with BuJ. This is a big risk for them, as BuJ if he wasn't lynched might even target the traitor ....

[Alonzo]

If Enigma is Town it means one of ruru/ skitter has the other totally fooled and by extension me too.

Paranoid me say continue, but sensible me says skitter/ ruru are pretty locktown by play at this point so theres no point dragging this out...

[ruru]

what if we just lynch me so I don't have to be responsible for losing the game

[skitter30]

we need to establish more than them just being weird, we need to establish that it's weirder for town.alonzo than for scum.alonzo and I think non-alonzo scum have plenty of motivation to nokill too for exactly the same reasons

fair enough

[skitter30]

Reading through the BuJ/me associatives ...

BuJ continued to push me iirc on D3 after the massclaims (but before his lynch was likely).

1. If we were group scum
This is terrible play as he becomes the last scum forced to deal with a rb (he can't kill) that can provide innos ...

like he makes his difficult miserable. Why do this to yourself?

2. If I was traitor
This means scum took day talk for sure based on the flips. Imo is a terrible mod choice for only 2 scum ... but meh who knows.
If you were group scum, wouldn't you be cautious of accidentally lynching your traitor ... plus I would like to think I would be signalling like fuck off I'm on your team.

Also yes traitors suck.

i can kinda see scum!you feeling this

[skitter30]

I'm pretty made up its Enigma at this point.

If you flip red at this point skitter you earned it my friend.

Of course Enig's gonna say I need a lynch to win as scum, but FMPOV i need a lynch to win as town, as scum can still force a draw from this position.

Im ready to Vote.

Umm FYPOV it is better to no lynch if you are town, because you have another night with the rb and then better chances of hitting scum tonight and tomorrow day.
Like no lyching forces scum between a very tough time tomorrow to win (they will probably lose) or stalling for a draw.

i feel like no-lynching today is the same hting as saying we think alonzo is town effectively (else the game just ends).

ie my pov no-lynching today is effectively the same as lynching enigma - if alonzo is scum town just loses. i feel like i might as well just choose to lynch enigma or alonzo instead of no-lynching (ie if i believe enigma is town i'd just lynch alonzo. if i'm not sure i can no-lynch but i'm effectively trusting alonzo to be town, in which case i might as well lynch enigma)

idk if i expressed that well but i don't think that no-lynching actually accomplishes anything for town here really besides entrusting the game to town!alonzo

@mod if there is no kill again from scum, how many times can we no lynch again before you decide it's a draw?

Uhhh I really don't want this game to ping-pong back and forth like that, so let's just say once more. If there is no lynch today, no kill tonight, and no lynch tomorrow, I'll call it a draw, and we can all pack up our bags and go home.

seems like a draw is no nk/no lynch 2x in a row

i don't think a draw is possible anymore, assuming we don't no-lynch in 3way (which is dumb)

[skitter30]

oh i gues we no-lynch and no-nk tomorrow but like, a draw is suboptimal and like a meh resolution to this

[skitter30]

it's probably just traitor!enigma

i don't want to no-lynch; from my pov that basically means i think alonzo is town in which case i might as well lynch enigma

[skitter30]

I'm pretty made up its Enigma at this point.

If you flip red at this point skitter you earned it my friend.

Of course Enig's gonna say I need a lynch to win as scum, but FMPOV i need a lynch to win as town, as scum can still force a draw from this position.

Im ready to Vote.

Umm FYPOV it is better to no lynch if you are town, because you have another night with the rb and then better chances of hitting scum tonight and tomorrow day.
Like no lyching forces scum between a very tough time tomorrow to win (they will probably lose) or stalling for a draw.

something's weird about the pov of this post but idk what it is rn

[skitter30]

enigma do you like town or scum more?