Overkill 1: Serenity/Firefly (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #3950 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:30 am

Post by Elsa Jay »

In post 3945, RightKnight wrote:
In post 3920, Elsa Jay wrote:They could have attacked my slot for claiming ascetic doctor. Seems reasonable. Or the real Simon healed someone.
In post 3924, Elsa Jay wrote:
In post 3922, RightKnight wrote:
In post 3920, Elsa Jay wrote:They could have attacked my slot for claiming ascetic doctor. Seems reasonable. Or the real Simon healed someone.
But since you are an ascetic, then wouldn’t you be dead then? Because you lost your 1-shot bp, hiding behind scum!Thor.

No, I think Simon 100% had to have healed Thor’s target, otherwise we would have had a town death last night.
I claimed Hider now. I lost the BP going onto Thor. If they attacked my slot they wouldn't have hit anything.
Bear with me here.

I know you probably explained this earlier and I am at work.

Why exactly the fake claim?

~~Math
1: because it would be fun.
2: because I wanted to draw the NK later on AFTER I redacted the neutral part of my claim until RR kept sending the vigilante at me and wasting their shots.
3: because why not.

Reason 2 was for if we kept losing townies but we didn't at all besides Ari.
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Post Post #3951 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:32 am

Post by Chara »

i don't see why you didn't try to draw the nk to begin with. the neutral claim alone makes you a very low priority shot, redacting it does nothing but add suspicion.
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Post Post #3952 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:33 am

Post by Chara »

you're a hider. town hiders who don't die on scum (have you answered if you do yet?) should be drawing the nightkill because that's the only thing your PR does.
"Sibling," Farkran asked, starting slowly.
"The CORE is full of lasers, and Chemist1422's entire existence depends on her eye. If she looks into a laser, she will almost certainly die. Did you think about that?"
"Oh yes, my brother. I love thinking about that."
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Post Post #3953 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:37 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 3931, RightKnight wrote: If Toog is fakeclaiming, then how do you account for no kills on N1? The only way that would make sense is if all possible KP roles had some kind of restriction or if there are multiple protectives from either alignment. I always lean to Occams Razor in these cases.

~N
If toog is LR, he was targeted by a jk. Almost certainly. If he’s fakeclaiming, the simplest conclusion is that Thor commutes and the rest of the scum blocked each other, but that’s incredibly ballsy. The problem is that lightning rod is a hell of a fakeclaim and he set it up in advance.

The other problem of course being that the role doesn’t really work for the flavor.
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Post Post #3954 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:39 am

Post by Elsa Jay »

In post 3952, Chara wrote:you're a hider. town hiders who don't die on scum (have you answered if you do yet?) should be drawing the nightkill because that's the only thing your PR does.
What makes you think I claimed town or neutral hider?
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Post Post #3955 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:41 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 3948, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 3935, RightKnight wrote:P.edit and Chick obviously.

This is why I don’t think we should rush this lynch, in case there could conceivably be both a doc and bg in this setup.

I’m torn between Chick’s inistence that Tails/Nico is either Simon/River and Nico’s weird possibly traitor-signaling type post.

However, Nico was MIA prior to Tails subbing in and therefore seems unlikely to be Simon, unless there’s another proective in the story that could explain a 2nd doc. Is there?

If Chick is River, then how does bg Tails explain Simon, because obviously a full doc had to have protected Toog on N1. So if Nico/Tails is Simon, then which character would be the doc?
Each HoB has a JK right? JK is used, LR attracts it, kills are stopped. Make sense?
Yeha, we're idiots. I mean, not idiots, but most importantly is the fact that a doctor is not guaranteed right now because of the existing scum JK.

@Toog: Please ask A50 how your role would interact with the flipped scum jailkeep.
A50: If you can, how would you resolve the interactions between a lightning rod and the jailkeep ability displayed in the HoB flip we have?


-Cerb
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Post Post #3956 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:46 am

Post by Chara »

In post 3954, Elsa Jay wrote:
In post 3952, Chara wrote:you're a hider. town hiders who don't die on scum (have you answered if you do yet?) should be drawing the nightkill because that's the only thing your PR does.
What makes you think I claimed town or neutral hider?
you didn't. you claimed something else that made you an unattractive nightkill target.
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"The CORE is full of lasers, and Chemist1422's entire existence depends on her eye. If she looks into a laser, she will almost certainly die. Did you think about that?"
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Post Post #3957 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:48 am

Post by Jingle »

To anyone but Thor. Actually Thor shooting the 1shot bp doc makes a ton of sense.
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Post Post #3958 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:49 am

Post by Elsa Jay »

I meant I never said I was a town hider. I was just trying to do town a solid and draw the NK last night since I could hide. But since I hid on Thor I lost the BP.

And yeah, honestly I think HoB shot Thor and Thor shot me.
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Post Post #3959 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:52 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 3958, Elsa Jay wrote:I meant I never said I was a town hider. I was just trying to do town a solid and draw the NK last night since I could hide. But since I hid on Thor I lost the BP.

And yeah, honestly I think HoB shot Thor and Thor shot me.
I've changed my mind. Can we just finish this Tails lynch so that way we can deal with whatever *this* is?

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Post Post #3960 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:56 am

Post by Elsa Jay »

If it helps for speculation, I tried to research the flavor and I
think
I'm Higgins.
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Post Post #3961 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:56 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 3955, Reasonably Rational wrote:
A50: If you can, how would you resolve the interactions between a lightning rod and the jailkeep ability displayed in the HoB flip we have?


-Cerb
IF JK is targeting LR, LR will blocked. If JK is targeting someone else, LR attracts JK,
then
JK will be on LR.

In the first scenario (from my PoV) it's the JK that initially affects the LR and not vise versa (JK already targeting LR), so JK resolves first.

In the second scenario, obviously it's the LR that affects the JK and not vise versa, so the LR resolves first.

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Post Post #3962 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:57 am

Post by Jingle »

That is the “normal” implementation, yes.
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Post Post #3963 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:01 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 3959, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 3958, Elsa Jay wrote:I meant I never said I was a town hider. I was just trying to do town a solid and draw the NK last night since I could hide. But since I hid on Thor I lost the BP.

And yeah, honestly I think HoB shot Thor and Thor shot me.
I've changed my mind. Can we just finish this Tails lynch so that way we can deal with whatever *this* is?

-Cerb
No. We’ve opened Pandora’s box and now I’m going to follow it to the inevitable conclusions.
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Post Post #3964 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:22 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 3963, Jingle wrote:
In post 3959, Reasonably Rational wrote:
In post 3958, Elsa Jay wrote:I meant I never said I was a town hider. I was just trying to do town a solid and draw the NK last night since I could hide. But since I hid on Thor I lost the BP.

And yeah, honestly I think HoB shot Thor and Thor shot me.
I've changed my mind. Can we just finish this Tails lynch so that way we can deal with whatever *this* is?

-Cerb
No. We’ve opened Pandora’s box and now I’m going to follow it to the inevitable conclusions.
By *this* Im' referring to EJ's motivations, NOT solving what happened last night. I'm okay with that, but I find what EJ is saying and their continued hints that they're not actually town etc etc to be distasteful, anti-town, and want them gone once I run out of people I'm sure are scum to lynch. ^^

-Cerb
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Post Post #3965 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:33 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

I don't understand who Tails would be with the remaining town slots left to fill.
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Post Post #3966 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:34 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

I agree that tails is unlikely HoB if his BG claim is legit though
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Post Post #3967 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:39 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

But that Nico crumb was just ??? So like maybe it's just a good claim to fool town into thinking the role will resolve itself?
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Post Post #3968 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:39 am

Post by Malakittens »

About to internally scream at my job.

God help me today
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #3969 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:58 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

In post 1313, ruru wrote:
votecountWith 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

NicoRobin (5):
Malakittens (1191),Nancy Drew Shogunate (1197),Reasonably Rational (1200),Flicker (1207),TPFKAP (1274),
Flicker (2):
northsidegal (153),Chickadee (1241),
TPFKAP (2):
Elsa Jay (1266),Thor665 (1275),
Reasonably Rational (1):
NicoRobin (473),
Elsa Jay (1):
Toogeloo (729),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):
Chara (776),
BuJaber (1):
Skygazer (881),
TFPKAP (1):
BuJaber (1258),
Jingle (1):
CheekyTeeky (1292),
Thor665 (1):
Jingle (1295),
Not voting (1):
randomidget,

(expired on 2018-10-16 02:00:00) remain.
The crumb looks like it either wasn't noticed or TPFKAP thought Nico was River.
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Post Post #3970 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:58 am

Post by Jingle »

Okay, I'm gonna go player by player here and it's gonna take up a lot of room, so spoiler tags. If I come up with anything useful, I'll mention it below.

Spoiler:
Mala- Play makes sense from demotivated Lyncher hoping town will throw her a bone. Further, if we have a Mal flip we know to lynch the shit out of that ASAP.

EJ- Play makes sense from a survivor. IF we are far enough ahead (5 town alive) when the game is at it's end that we can justify going for it and EJ/Mala are the only antitown remaining, I suggest we lynch Buj/Other Potential Mal to let Mala off the hook. EJ is inherently untrustworthy at this point, but the Ascetic claim doesn't strike me as likely to come from a non Ascetic JK. Hider is a good explanation for the missing Thor result last night. At best, slot is a distraction, at worst, slot is a danger, but dealing with other dangers comes first. Reevaluate if RK flips red.

Flicker- Flicker has been a flavor clear for a long time. Book is the only character for whom Priest makes sense. If another book flips, I'll reevaluate, but not before.

Chick- 80% chance of River. 10% chance of Inara. 10% chance of scum. If River and Inara both flip, lynch this immediately. Until then, Conftown.

Me/Gamma- Zoe/Wash. The flavor fits too strongly and the only other possibility is River/Simon.

Buj: Probably Mal via Chickadee. If Mal flips, lynch immediately.

Tails- Via flavor result, either HoB, Operative or Simon. Evidence towards HoB: Strange crumb early days. Evidence towards Simon: Claim and Videos. Evidence towards Operative: Videos. Possibly (Probably?) solved by massclaim.

Toog- Inara? Frequently used as a distraction by the crew, becomes less and less untouchable as the game goes on, mirroring the show. Use of power: crazy town. Lynch immediately before the Mala/EJ conclusion if necessary, but LR use on D1 buys a ton of goodwill. Further LR use will likely kill and confirm as town anyway.

Chara: Softed Role
CT: Softed Role
RR: Softed Role
RK: Enabler of high utility town power. Probably solved by massclaim? Strange claim flavorwise. Strange claim anything wise.

That's all 13 players. We're still missing a Kaylee, but Either Tails is Simon or one of Chara/CT/RR/RK is.

Pros to Massclaim:

Scum has to choose their 1v1's now. Potentially we just win the game. Well defined flavor slots.
Potentially prevents mislynching Tails if no one else claims a role that fits Simon. If someone else cc's Tails, we can judge and move on from there.

Cons to Massclaim:

Potential outing of potential Doc- Unlikely.
Potential outing of potential Vig- Untroubling.
Potential to get our most powerful role killed. Possible, assuming I understand the subtext the way I think I do, but honestly worth the shot.

Presumably, we're at 8v1v1v{some subset of 3}. We have the majority of the 8, or at least, I'm confident that we have the majority of the 8. Two slots are likely solved/nearly solved by a massclaim and we presumably have enough mislynches remaining to muscle that through. It's in the best interest of the two 3p claims to support this as well as it both drops the likelihood they'll be killed and means that they might live long enough to be offered the mutual win.


Done ~ A50
Last edited by Almost50 on Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #3971 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:59 am

Post by Jingle »

Shit I forgot to close the tag.

@A50
: Would you kindly fix my fuckup?
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Post Post #3972 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:04 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 3964, Reasonably Rational wrote:By *this* Im' referring to EJ's motivations, NOT solving what happened last night. I'm okay with that, but I find what EJ is saying and their continued hints that they're not actually town etc etc to be distasteful, anti-town, and want them gone once I run out of people I'm sure are scum to lynch. ^^

-Cerb
EJ's motivations have very clearly been "Survive to Endgame" the entire time. Like, most obvious motivation ever. Could be scum, could be survivor. The "Oops, I'm town" retraction was very clearly an attempt at WIFOM to keep himself alive. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the change from Doc to Hider is a fakeclaim to keep himself alive. I'm also not really worried about it, because the way he's gone about it means he's almost certainly not going to endgame us unless we drop the ball massively.
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Post Post #3973 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:11 am

Post by Jingle »

I've fairly well convinced myself that today is the optimal massclaim day.

Anyone have a particular reason why Chara, CT, RR, RK, Buj doesn't work?

RR has given a decent amount of info to go off of regarding their role. RK has almost fullclaimed. Buj has a probable inno AND has given a decent amount of info about his role.

Locking down the rest of the roles gives us a chance to avoid a potential mislynch. Outing the possible protective is less than worrisome, considering if we can lock the game into 1v1's we probably just win.
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Post Post #3974 (ISO) » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:14 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Guys last HoB is Chara. It explains why they're more active in thread today since they're alone in their pt now.
In post 2186, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 2179, Chara wrote:also i don't want to lynch McMenno, but i'm going to review your ISO for why you want him/Skygazer slot because i forgot, haha.
I haven't really explained yet. It's a combination of Sky's TMI read on chick in light of the TPFKAP flip + gut + his reaction to my list....which was literally deflection and disappearance.

It's ok if you guys don't listen to me though because it just makes my post-mcmenno-flip-I-told-you-so more satisfying. Would prefer if we put some real pressure there though.
In post 2207, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 2198, McMenno wrote:and I would request cheekyteeky to stop spreading fake news about me or have their team shoot me tonight
Yuck.

*notes resistance to wagon*
In post 2211, Thor665 wrote:
In post 2202, Chickadee wrote:Still following along. Still without internet
I'm starting to really struggle to remember the last relevant work you did in the thread.
What was your last major push?
If you've had zero major pushes - which day phase should we roughly anticipate one :)
In post 2207, CheekyTeeky wrote:*notes resistance to wagon*
Outside of McMeeno himself and me starting up the Nancy wagon, what resistance are you perceiving?
Elsa's shift seems highly natural considering her claimed role, and I've got no one else I can spot as resisting.
Are you complaining about my resistance?
In post 2210, CheekyTeeky wrote:Idk how useful this is but it's still bugging me that Toog is alive with no valid explanation.
I will give you the *exact* reason.

"The way the kills and protects interacted last night resulted in a situation where Toog lived."

Now, maybe that means there are a lot less kills than you think, or more protects, or maybe Toog is lying and his lightning rod includes some sort of auto-protect shtick. But that's really all we'll know unless you want to go with a massclaim or wait till near the end of the game.

Out of curiosity - I'm not sure what that info much gets us at this stage. Yeah, in a very conceptual sense it doesn't hurt to know how many kills to expect or what sort of protective utility we have, but theorizing about it without pushing for claims feels like a very interesting theory hole that will accomplish absolutely nothing for game solving, yeah?
Chara could be HoB :/

Elsa is a possibility too seeing as Thor noticed that wagon shift.

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