Mini 2036: Charging Up! - Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

hype

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Vaxkiller

ez

the worst I'm not scum this time! RC I'm still not scum this time!

[GuiltyLion]

I have absolutely seen scum!Vaxkiller before

[GuiltyLion]

I see you haven't changed a bit

he's getting lazy, the old Not_Mafia in his prime would have written out every instance of "Too many cooks" instead of resorting to a "(x18)"

[GuiltyLion]

I had no problem with Manatee's poke on slimer and I'm not sure why it caught interest between both lane and Kokichi. feels like there could be scum between those two

Vax is still a good vote IMO

too many lurkers

Why would you post this less than 24 hours into the game..?

Bonus points for not posting anything after calling out lurkers less than a day in, too.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Porkens

Lady Angel, do you really think Porkens' comment is the most scum-indicative/noteworthy thing that has happened so far? I'm surprised that this was what you felt was most important to comment on

[GuiltyLion]

Pregame, not rvs. There is a difference that needs to be acknowledged.

also this is a weird comment

what is the Actual Significant Difference^TM between pregame and RVS and how does that difference relate to Manatee's meta and his alignment being discussed here?

[GuiltyLion]

honestly tempted to unvote for that post lmao

[GuiltyLion]

okay so let's drill into this Manatee/Lane thing a bit

When someone votes seriously, I'm interested. You don't have to be. But I want to know what he means. He doesn't want to explain it. Can you explain it? If not, does it matter to you the reasons for people's cases? If not, why not?

in my view, slimer's original comment was nothing more than a joke and NAI. but I can easily imagine how someone else may not see it as just a joke and could have inferred some weird/unnecessary shade in it. I don't agree with that read, I don't immediately share Manatee's suspicion, but I can understand it so I also don't see it as disingenuous, especially for a page 1 read/vote. And that's entirely the level of thought I feel is necessary to evaluate the whole thing. I have a plausible town explanation for Manatee's behavior, no solid reason to prefer an alternative scum!explanation, and therefore it's not worth diving into further.

You can't seem to imagine this relatively simple town!Manatee explanation for his vote and that's more concerning to me. How much can Manatee really offer beyond what he's said already? He thought the shade that he saw in that post was weird so he voted it. What more would you expect him to explain? Yours doesn't feel like a productive line of questioning, it looks more like busy work to start conflicts and get a foot in the game. Maybe in the abstract, "are weird posts scummy?" is a good question for the Mafia Discussion board, but if you want to dive that deep into every single vote or claim that anyone makes you're going to rapidly lose sight of the bigger picture and create a bunch of tangential arguments that only become noise in the thread.

And what also looks bad is how you're strawmanning me here - I have never suggested that "the reasons for people's cases" don't matter to me. But Manatee's vote was a) not nearly at the level I would call a 'case', and b) already sufficiently explained for what it was

[GuiltyLion]

The significance remains to be seen. But the reason it needs to be acknowledged is because they are different game states. Different mind sets. I find it odd to take anything seriously pregame, and hard to take anything seriously in RVS. They are different. To ignore that would not be considering all possibilities.

I don't think you totally engaged with the spirit of my question, but I guess I can see your point. But here's my follow-up to get into the nitty gritty instead of handwaving about "mindset" and what to "take seriously": If a metadive found that town!Manatee always overreacts to RVS jokes, whereas scum!Manatee never does, would that really not apply here because it was a "pregame" joke instead of an RVS joke?

[GuiltyLion]

also Lane I made a serious vote on Vax and you didn't ask me about it at all

[GuiltyLion]

I was supposed to take this as serious? Cause in that case yeah I'm definitely interested in hearing about it. It didn't and doesnt strike me as serious.

I mean it was as serious as a page 2 vote can be, which is "not that serious objectively overall but this person is definitely who I want to be voting rn" serious

I thought the whole thought process was an awkward - or weird, you could say - way to start the game. Says he wants to get the biggest reaction out of someone by voting them, but then immediately votes Kokichi as a joke while calling him a townread in the same post. I don't think Kokichi is someone who would react much to that kind of vote (especially compared to other players like RC), felt like the only reason he had for voting there was there was a convenient meme/joke presented itself mostly because Kokichi had just posted. which could still come from town!Vax in the end, but he hasn't really done anything townie at all since then to make me want to move my vote yet.

[GuiltyLion]

I think NSG is town

[GuiltyLion]

I could wagon Lady Angel too I think. I'm waffling on "tryhard newbtown who took Porkens too literally" vs "scum" but the way she posted 109 five minutes after 108 smells a little fake/scummy, like she decided to go back and look for another reason to supplement her Porkens scumread. I think if she were town genuinely scumreading Porkens then the thought in 109 would have already been bouncing around in her head at the time that she was writing 108.

[GuiltyLion]

hi sorry for the prod - busy weekend. I'll be around tonight, I've read along a little bit but want to reread before doing anything and don't have time right now

[GuiltyLion]

eh okay sorry it took me a bit longer to come back home than I anticipated, I have read up now but won't be making a ton of effort posts tonight. will engage a bit more tomorrow

I still think NSG is town and would advocate pretty strongly against that lynch today. I've played a handful of games with NSG and I don't think she engages with RC the way she did here as scum, nor does she make that "here are my notes look how fast I had this prepared" post. I can't rigorously justify it yet but I definitely gut feel there's more towniness coming from that slot than not.

Which makes me like RC's push a lot less, it feels more motivated-towards-an-end than it does genuine. I chronically have a hard time reading RC, it's possible he's manipulating/pushing her for an agenda as town, but as it stands I think he could be scum. I don't really like the DS push either, RC put way too much stock in 357 which read to me like a very casual/off-handed post. I don't see it as stirring the pot or really advancing any kind of scum!agenda at all. Also I think DS' reads in 371 are fairly on point.

slimer is kinda meh. I'll revisit that slot again tomorrow but nothing's stood out, which is bad.

Gamma is a locktown read, this is starting to feel more like town!lane, Manatee feels v town. Overall my heads probably about here

{Gamma}
{NSG, Manatee}
{lane, DS}
{Porkens, Kokichi, Not_Mafia}
{slimer, RC, Vax}
{Lady Angel}

Lady Angel feels like really awkward scum. Every post feels fake and all her hedges look disingenuous.
VOTE: Lady Angel

[GuiltyLion]

Did my homework. Think I'm ready to present.

VOTE: Northsidegal

Something about RC and NSG's de-escalation felt very off to me, and while I can't claim to be in either of their headspaces, I wanted to check it out. So I went and read through part of Lynch The Wolves, a game in which RC was Scum and NSG was town, and here's a summary of what I found:

RC, as Scum, could've pushed onto NSG using the same tactic he did here (claiming to be able to read her 100% of the time), but likely didn't too much because it would've looked bad when NSG flipped town. However, RC did vote on NSG at one point, when NSG was the leading wagon, and unlike this game, backed off quickly. Why didn't we have a repeat of this game? Because RC knew NSG was town. He even brought up his ability to read her 100% of the time just to discredit a fellow scum's SR on her. So it makes sense that RC's different reaction indicates a different situation here.

Reading through the rest of the game, I started to see shades of this RC when he attempted to bus a partner, and while he got more frustrated there than he did here, it was still close enough for me to draw a few conclusions:

- RC gets like this when he really believes he's correct and isn't being listened to
- RC gets like this when he's trying to bus someone and isn't being listened to

Their de-escalation felt natural enough from the prespective of someone seeing it from the outside for me to think it's the first one with a slight possibility of it being a bus, but either way in this line of thought NSG has a higher-than-other chance of flipping scum.

this is like the only decent content Lady Angel has produced and it doesn't hold up to any scrutiny.

first and foremost you can't meta someone off of one game. One game is not a sample size, it is a single data point. I'd like to see if you did any homework on games where NSG was scum against town RC, or games where they were both town. like, think about this point, fundamentally

LA is using thoughts she had about how RC made pushes as scum in a single game to argue that he's making a genuine push as town in this particular game

. That's not a logical read at all, it's much more likely reverse-engineered to suit a predetermined conclusion.

next, generally the whole thing is a bunch of thoughts about RC that somehow moves the needle on NSG's alignment? You're taking him at his word that he's "100%" able to read NSG (which no one should be trusting until/unless he's confirmed town), and you're assuming he's town here for a really tenuous reason (he's not playing this particular game the exact same way he played another game as scum). Even RC would tell you he doesn't play scum the same way every game and he's famously hard to read. you even say yourself that the frustration levels don't match between games for his pushes.

finally - isn't this also partially a longer and fancier way of saying "they could both be scum" like DS did? why didn't RC take issue with the "they could both be scum" angle when LA implied it?

[GuiltyLion]

And no, I'm not taking his word on it. I looked at how RC was acting at his peak of trying to lynch NSG and it matched up well with how RC tried to lynch a scum MathBlade in Lynch the wolves, right down to the frustration at not being listened to. Simply put, regardless of RC's level of read proficiency, his reaction and attempt to push her indicate that he was extremely confident in it. Does that mean it's right? No, it could be a mislynch or a scum push, but so far, from what I've seen of RC, that level of confidence seems difficult to engineer. And were it to flip town, I would be very glad to lynch RC tomorrow.

I only brought up "100% read proficiency" in the original post twice, once prefaced by the word "claiming", ie, I wasn't taking it as fact, and a second time as a direct reference to another game. In neither situation could anyone reasonably read it and come up with the conclusion you did without really stretching it.

Lastly, how did you get me assuming he was town out of that post when I specifically brought up that there was a chance it could be a bus, which you yourself even brought up? Yeah, right now I'd be willing to think RC isn't scum since I don't see him trying to hard bus my other two scumreads day 1 in this fashion (NSG and DS, with DS also only being bussed after subbing in), but as I said up there, if NSG flips town we lynch RC afterwards.

I sort of feel like you read that post with a lens of assuming I'm scum going into it as opposed to just... reading it? Some of the stuff you pointed out was flat-out wrong on a reading comprehension level and while it's fair that I can't meta-read someone off of one game, I also only know of/had time to read one game of his since sleep is required for the human body to function.

I'm very confused by this

your argument for scum!NSG was ... what exactly? As simple as possible. I saw a bunch of questionable assertions about RC and RC meta, and nothing about NSG's play in this game. So I took your argument to be "either town!RC is right or scum!RC is bussing, either way NSG is scum". Which I just don't buy, and that's where I thought half of your argument was predicated on RC being right about NSG.

Please tell me, without using the words "RC", why NSG is scum, in your own words.

[GuiltyLion]

GL's reads are so bad that he's probably scum for that alone.

sick discredit bruh

[GuiltyLion]

btw in response to something you said earlier slimer3, if it's not a town thing to say... then what is it? scum.

the problem with this is that a lot of people think "I don't get this, it's not how I would play as town" = not town

actually

not town things are pretty rare

[GuiltyLion]

I'm more surprised you've never seen one before, honestly.

if he's never seen one before, he's town.

so do you think he's lying or did you just admit that you think he's town here?

[GuiltyLion]

I reviewed Lady Angel's ISO yet again and she's setting off every alarm on my scumdar

lynch her and then if/when she flips red, lynch RC for hard townreading her

REMEMBER THIS POST IF DS IS LYNCHED AND I AM KILLED

[GuiltyLion]

Hi sorry I'm on vacation this weekend at Austin City Limits and do not want to play/bother with mafia right now. I'll look at this tomorrow, still want to lynch Lady Angel first and foremost. I'll do a post by post case and really push it when I have time when I get back home

[GuiltyLion]

alright I am here and caught up on D2

I'm gonna reread D1 again at some point and that might influence how I feel about things but my off the cuff take is RC suddenly feels more town and I see what he's saying about Lane + Flavor Leaf feels really scummy. I still don't townread LA at all. I could see Kokichi in the third scum slot, feeling a bit better about Slimer off his D2 play, still townreading Manatee/Gamma. Porkens/Vax/Not_Mafia generally null

problem is I don't

want

to townread RC because that DS push was so bad, buuutt I'm hesitant, regardless of Kokichi's alignment he gave some good reasons as to why RC is townier on NSG night kill + townflip

[GuiltyLion]

actually wait Porkens claiming roleblocked is a probably town move, right

gonna highlight the D2 posts that stood out to me in a sec

[GuiltyLion]

Flavor Leaf - talk to me about your catchup last night. At 8:45 PM (my time, PST) in 902 you say you're not caught up but you've read the current pages. 3 minutes later, in 904, you said slimer was sticking out, but you haven't read far enough back to see anything from N_M - this implies you are reading backwards? Fifteen or so minutes later, you quoted some posts from DS and I in 909 and 910, both these posts were in the #600s and also counting backwards. Then in 919, another ten minutes later, you quote post 661 and then in 920 say that you've read through the game. In between a lot of these posts you were also live reacting and responding to posts happening in the thread.

I don't really understand what your methodology was for catching up or how it happened over the course of 30 minutes enough for you to get reads while also responding to people in real time? Like in what order were you reading the game, how fast were you reading, why did you quote the particular posts that you quoted and what prompted you to make those posts.

p-edit: RC is saying that lane did some scummy stuff and that your slot is likely to be scum

[GuiltyLion]

Slimer’s stickin out to me as well, and I don’t necessarily think he’s scummy, but I don’t think he’s town necessarily either.

This being said in conjunction with not liking Kokichi’s comments, I’m uneasy on that NM wagon.

This is me saying this without looking back far enough to really have seen anythig of note from NM, if there is anything of note.

this post in general also just feels super scummy

-waffley non-read in the first sentence

-avoids taking a stance on NM wagon but still manages to subtly shade on NM with final thought

[GuiltyLion]

This matters because he’s in my head connected to Lady, so I could see him as a buddy for Kokichi if Lady is town.

if Lady is town, why does that make me scum

and why would Lady being town change any associatives between me and Kokichi?

like this reasoning may have made sense if there were only 5 players left in the game or something, but there are currently a ton of other slots as well and it's odd that you immediately start suspecting me for adding to scumreads on your slot

[GuiltyLion]

Clearly have zero experience with me.

Yes, I do not have any experience with you. Why does that matter?

Like, especially if I'm misreading you - then that makes me town. If I were scum and you were town, then I'd

know

you were town and my experience with you wouldn't matter at all

I wanna see how Guilty reacts to this.

what do you want to see?

[GuiltyLion]

You also stated you just finished reading Day 2, so that was just fluff and crap. You knew where you wanted to go BEFORE reading and coming up, and it showed with this terriblepush of yours.

I read up, and knew that I wanted to start pushing on you. I never pretended otherwise

[GuiltyLion]

see but you're dodging the point

You're trying to have it both ways with respect to how you're talking to me and my alignment. You're defending yourself with meta and suggesting that because I have no experience with you, I am reading you wrong. That implies a level of townreading my slot - if I'm scum and you're town it literally does not matter at all that I have no experience with you, because my push would be fabricated to begin with.

also it's not scummy at all to have reads before posting after catching up. Like that's how I always catch up in every game as town, I can quote a billion examples. Literally in my first post today I said I think you're really scummy.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

also all the "LOLOLOL"s and fake bravado is scum-indicative - your angle is to discredit and mockingly dismiss arguments instead of taking the time to show why they're wrong. and now you're just straight up writing narratives for my play.

[GuiltyLion]

And you have no clue how to deal with me, haha. You’re caught out scum. You’re a lion who thought he was jumping at just a single hippo calf, but you made a mistake. I’m the giant elephant in the room, and you lion, gonna get got.

if I'm scum and I don't know how to deal with you, why do I open by pushing on you - a complete unknown - when it would have been entirely easy and consistent to pick up my LA push from D1? I even indicated that I wanted to do so prior to reading D2 in my 844. What makes you say you seem like mislynch bait - did you think your intro posts were mislynch baity?

you're also putting far more weight into my scumreads as associatives than I am, or meant to imply. I'm not so arrogant as to assume that I can nail a 3p scumteam on D2 of a 13p game. I'm extremely likely wrong on either LA or Kokichi and I'm honestly not sure which, I'd rather just sheep RC and push the scummy as hell player who seems to be intentionally trying to WIFOM both of the other slots.

[GuiltyLion]

I clearly stated that I believe SCUM needs more experience with me than town does.

you never stated this in 1001 and this idea makes no sense in the context of that post

[GuiltyLion]

actually eh

when I reread 1001 I can almost see the whole thing from a scumreading-my-slot perspective

[GuiltyLion]

honestly I'm starting to see your POV

I'm not scum though so you should really dial back the narrative-writing for my play

[GuiltyLion]

Now I feel like you’re backing off from a 1v1 with me.

My playstyle generally I search by basing off of possible agendas that people are potentially pushing

yeah, I am, I realized 1001 was a lot more consistent than how I had interpreted it when I first read it and I'm starting to see more town motive in your push

[GuiltyLion]

yeah I can do that

VOTE: Kokichi

I'm gonna still write up an LA case before today ends though

[GuiltyLion]

well I'm about to head out for the night so I don't have time to actually do my long promised LA case, and also a Kokichi wagon is more productive atm than yet another day of vanity voting LA

[GuiltyLion]

no I think I got distracted by all the meta talk and a few select posts where I didn't like the way you phrased/did things

when I reset and reread I see a lot more where you're coming from now

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, my weeknights have been busy and I don't really play mafia much at work anymore

but seeing as it's Friday I have time for this - will look over what's happened since I was last here and then put down my thoughts on Lady

[GuiltyLion]

alright so the most concise way to describe my issues with Lady Angel is the way she votes - all of her votes have felt convictionless, there's a missing sense of actual

belief

in the vote. This can be seen both in how her votes progress and also how she presents her votes - it's formulaic and scummy every time.

too many lurkers

Why would you post this less than 24 hours into the game..?

Bonus points for not posting anything after calling out lurkers less than a day in, too.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Porkens

I called out this vote at the time - felt uncomfortable for a first serious vote. LA took Porkens post way too literally/seriously and is going after someone somewhat removed from the actual discussions/conversations happening at the time.

UNVOTE:
Still don't really tr Porkens, but I'm starting to think it's more for his style of posting than any actual read.

Not sold whatsoever on the northsidegal wagon, RC hasn't really done much to convince anyone besides practically yelling it with no substance.

Not a fan of DS's first post but more because it's arrogant than actually scummy, DS seems fairly towny to me otherwise.

the unvote here may make sense if she realized that the first post she went after was a jokey/throwaway comment, but I don't really see why she only realizes this now. I had even already poked her about this and she brushed me off in 109

The comments on NSG and DS are noteworthy given her next couple of votes:

Did my homework. Think I'm ready to present.

VOTE: Northsidegal

Something about RC and NSG's de-escalation felt very off to me, and while I can't claim to be in either of their headspaces, I wanted to check it out. So I went and read through part of Lynch The Wolves, a game in which RC was Scum and NSG was town, and here's a summary of what I found:

RC, as Scum, could've pushed onto NSG using the same tactic he did here (claiming to be able to read her 100% of the time), but likely didn't too much because it would've looked bad when NSG flipped town. However, RC did vote on NSG at one point, when NSG was the leading wagon, and unlike this game, backed off quickly. Why didn't we have a repeat of this game? Because RC knew NSG was town. He even brought up his ability to read her 100% of the time just to discredit a fellow scum's SR on her. So it makes sense that RC's different reaction indicates a different situation here.

Reading through the rest of the game, I started to see shades of this RC when he attempted to bus a partner, and while he got more frustrated there than he did here, it was still close enough for me to draw a few conclusions:

- RC gets like this when he really believes he's correct and isn't being listened to
- RC gets like this when he's trying to bus someone and isn't being listened to

Their de-escalation felt natural enough from the prespective of someone seeing it from the outside for me to think it's the first one with a slight possibility of it being a bus, but either way in this line of thought NSG has a higher-than-other chance of flipping scum.

I already also called out this one, but there's

nothing about why NSG is scum

in here. It's all about RC. Here's how she summed it up herself:

NSG has a high chance to be scum because another player's reaction lines up with what was seen of him in previous games upon hitting scum. If she isn't scum, I'm going to try and lynch that player.

[also worth noting she hasn't gone after RC at all today, despite NSG flipping town]

but more to the point this is not a valid case on someone, unless it's a scenario where she has a Serious Townread on RC and believes in his ability to catch scum!NSG. But she went out of her way to insist that this was

not

the case, that she thought RC may be scum as well. So it's just a really flimsy/illogical reason to be voting someone out of convenience, especially since she's not really engaging with or townreading most other players either. How would a town!NSG be expected to change LA's mind with this reason for voting her?

Next part...
VOTE: DS

There's just... nothing here for the sheer number of posts you've made. Despite claiming to scumread me since like your third post, you've made no effort to actually build a case or even convince other people to jump on, and have spent the entire game trying to tie people to me for basically nothing or getting in a catfight with RC. You've put a pretty exorbitant amount of effort into defending yourself over a low number of votes, and about 3/4s of your post have so little content it makes me think you're deliberately doing it to take attention off of one of the other scum members.

none of these things are scum indicative. most players in the game weren't building cases. defending yourself isn't scum-indicative. the last bit is the kind of extreme reachy illogical argument that newbie scum fall into thinking sounds like town-reasoning, yet townies never organically think of.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Not mafia seems to solely exist to prod dodge or otherwise place one vote and leave (Including, as of his most recent post, voting for someone that isn't even in this game...). Porkens has also done effectively nothing and I'd be fine with his lynch too, but Not Mafia's probably more egregious.

this late into the game, voting people for these sorts of reasons is suspiciously uninspired. if this behavior is indicative and she's fine with both Porkens/Not_Mafia lynches, that leaves her with just one scum remaining out of everyone else. it's a super lazy view of the game state and shows no real engagement with the content people have provided, nor any re-evaluation after the D1 wagon and lynch.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

Did not like that entrance one bit, nor the fight with GuiltyLion.

are Porkens and Not_Mafia no longer scummy anymore? why does fighting with me make FL scum?

tl;dr - I don't believe any of Lady Angel's reasons for voting people have made sense from an AI standpoint, and further I don't believe that

she

believes that they have been either. She's taking paths of least resistance to vote easy targets. And furthermore, when she moves from one vote to another - there's never any solid reasoning or evidence as to why her read on her prior vote changed.

[GuiltyLion]

as for my vote on Kokichi - he is also lacking in making any serious pushes or good votes, especially now that he's come under fire. I also agree him shading Gamma over the Porkens neighborhood push was poor posting, looked like an attempt to WK Porkens and throw mud at Gamma rather than serving a townie help figure out reads and sort players. and anyone who self-votes at any point can die in my book.

[GuiltyLion]

am I missing something not knowing who Double Dare is?

sort of a prodge for now - I actually thought LA's response to me was kinda townie? but to respond to your question - LA the way you vote hopped repeatedly on D1 just made me feel like you didn't really care about any individual scumread in particular and were just shopping lynches. If you're 'erring on the side of suspicion' that may make more sense to me but it's hard for me to understand whether you really think all these players and behaviors your pushing are fundamentally scummy.

[GuiltyLion]

hey, sorry. I know I haven't been playing this game as much as I should. I'm half tempted to replace out because I really just can't find the time to play mafia right now, but I also don't want to cause any undue burdens on the mod/playerlist if finding a replacement is difficult. I should have a ton of time to post/engage today and up until the deadline, but this pattern of inactivity might crop up again on future day phases :/

I'll leave it up to you guys if you think my level of activity has been okay or if you'd like a replacement to read my slot better, in the meantime let me see what i've missed and catch up.

[GuiltyLion]

Not_Mafia (3): theslimer3, Gamma Emerald, Lady Angel
theslimer3 (3): Not_Mafia, Porkens, Vaxkiller

both of these leading wagons are bad and I feel this is a comfortable game state for scum

also the bit about LA reaching to push NM on the basis of him being anti-town rather than scum is a good point, and reminds me of what I thought may be a scumslip when she was like "I'm surprised you've never heard of scum tracker" when talking to DS - could have been an implicit acknowledgment that he wasn't lying about not considering that "tracker" could be a scum role

[GuiltyLion]

@GL - what do you think of Kokichi going after LA right now? I’m starting to think they aren’t partners, but that’s why I’m also continuing to believe they are...if that makes sense.

yeah, I feel this. I think Kokichi's move on Lady is scummy either way with respect to Lady's alignment so I'd rather stay on him for now I think. But I kinda want all players to get more invested in the Lady Angel alignment question. I'm still baffled / having trouble parsing RC's strong townread there as well.

[GuiltyLion]

alright in the interests of promoting better activity / forcing questions, let's start with this one

@

everyone not voting Kokichi

- are you opposed to a Kokichi lynch today, and if not, why aren't you voting there?

[GuiltyLion]

remind me why you're on slimer again?

[GuiltyLion]

why didn't he make the "not to lynch" list?

[GuiltyLion]

i'm not trying to 'catch' you, just trying to get involved again and figure out what your reasoning/headspace looks like. that makes sense

[GuiltyLion]

I would like to hear whether Lady Angel has any updates or new thoughts

I'm inclined to believe Kokichi is lying about the cop claim. It looks pretty much like a "save my ass" claim, like why would you not investigate night 1 and then ask for charges/protection, especially if you get a useful result? then he claims roleblocked today -

I am not ascetic

. I have been town ascetic in multiple games before and I always claim that in my first post.

Kokichi - how would you say your play in this game is different than in Trapped mafia?

[GuiltyLion]

I pretty much only trust Flavor Leaf and Gamma. Manatee I townread for D1 play but his play has really fallen off, could be coasting scum especially if Kokichi is actually town. Slimer I need to revisit again but I was previously thinking game makes more sense with him as town.

[GuiltyLion]

I'll say that I charged Manatee n1

regretting that move now

[GuiltyLion]

I actually forgot about that Porkens roleblock claim tbh

if there is a roleblocker and town!Kokichi I wouldn't think of it as "who is at risk" so much as just "roleblock the cop"

[GuiltyLion]

lol I just realized it's 36 hours instead of 48 hour prods, that explains a lot

I don't buy the slimer tracker claim at all, I agree that looks like they literally just forgot that DS was a tracker. There was nothing in their posting after DS claimed tracker that indicates that they had the same role either

VOTE: slimer

at work right now but will be around again later today / this afternoon. also I have some light role related reasons to think LA is scum as well - it's not 100% indicative and I don't want to disclose fully yet but just want to note that I am surprised that nothing seemed to change for her overnight, I was expecting that she would re-evaluate or have some more substantial new thoughts to offer in response to my opening poke on her

[GuiltyLion]

also I'm not sure what to think of that Gamma+Kokichi tag team on Vax above... I thought it was pretty obvious Vax's 1454 was a joke

scumreads are still generally Slimer, Lady, then someone in {Kokichi/Manatee/Vax}. Vax feels towniest of the three though he isn't actually doing much game-solving, his tone/posting feels honest, especially that reply to me end of D2. Kokichi is skating by on the cop claim but I am hoping night actions can help to resolve that in some way

p-edit @Gamma:

You're reacting to this pretty poorly.. consider me voting you, but I wont actually do it till you're at l-3, or a hammer if it's late enough in the day phase and I'm totally convinced.

The way you're taking everything is just so overdramatic and unnecessary. Claiming so early was such a poor decision, and your ranting at us being such a bad town reeks of omgus and desperation.

Of course you wouldn't claim scum tracker, who does that? And its day one, even if you're lynched there's so much more time. No ones listening to Rc, most people are either being an idiot or came to the conclusion on their own

if I'm town tracker and I think scum is lying about claiming my role, I do not make this post. It's far too waffley both in the first and last sections. They also say "claiming was a poor decision" which in hindsight can only come from someone who is townreading the other player/knows they are town... if slimer thought there was a possibility that scum!DS was fakeclaiming then they wouldn't say it was a "poor decision".

DS also made this post:

No I'm town offended for your site that they consider this good scum play from you. I'm pretty obviously town,

just claimed a pretty decent town role with no counter

, and not a single vote came off of me. There is 100% scum on my wagon and you have been saying "NDG is lock scum, Slimer is scum, DS is lock scum" all game just waiting for someone to sheep you and that's not a town mindstate

with no direct response from slimer. At the very least he should/would have

implied

a possible counterclaim. instead there's a total absence of any kind of claim-related suspicion.

one other thing I had noticed in reviewing their ISO:

I just realized something. Day 4 is going to be fun if we make it that far

what kind of townie says "

if

" we make it to Day 4??

[GuiltyLion]

Now that nm is gone (still dislike porkens, buts it's far too late to do any more PLs), I'm pretty sure the last scum is FL.

last? aren't there 3 scum, we haven't found any of them?

ehhh Gamma I could see town!slimer here I guess but I don't want to be swayed this easily and I def agree there is too much claimed/outed town power in the form of investigatives to the point where someone in Slimer/Kokichi is lying

the thing that makes me a bit hesitant on Kokichi is it is true that Porkens claimed RB'd n1 and he so far is the only person to claim RB'd n2. though with a little bit more scrutiny I guess if there is a mafia one-shot roleblocker who used it N1, then he could safely fake claim it N2 knowing no one else could counterclaim roleblocked as well.

[GuiltyLion]

generally yeah town!slimer and scum!kokichi makes way more sense than scum!slimer and town!kokichi, but two trackers existing just feels really strange. i guess in the setup it might make sense because charging could be another visiting action in addition to role related ones

[GuiltyLion]

eh but at the same time NM's D2 ISO really does seem like a guilty on Slimer

[GuiltyLion]

I tracked Vax night 1. However, instead of being told what happened regarding you, I was just told that you haven't charged anyone

also this seems like a fake claim too, especially given the flipped tracker role PM

like it's possible Maf know that Vax didn't use charge N1, but aren't sure whether he

visited

anyone or not, so this claimed result is a safer lie than a full blown tracker result.

though if Vax can come in here and CC in any way, that'd be tite

[GuiltyLion]

May I be charged tonight? I'm willing to charge anyone who can confirm charging me.

Would lynch inside of Kokichi/Vax/Manatee tomorrow, probably not Kokichi if this actually flips scum. And there's no way Vax is a third tracker unless we're all secretly trackers.

actually I do kinda like this post and I am willing to hold up on my pet Lady scumread unless we get a surprising townflip in slimer/manatee first, I almost certainly want to lynch manatee tomorrow assuming slimer flips red

[GuiltyLion]

So yeah. I think that the entire scum team isn’t likely to have been on that NM wagon. If you were town, and pushing it like that, scum would have all waited until end of day to push there to not seem suspicious.

FL I didn't follow this bit, if you're townreading me and Gamma doesn't that mean the whole scumteam was on the NM wagon?

I def buy that all three scum were on NM though, especially if slimer is scum then NM's guilty may have been more obvious to scum than it was to townies. NM is also chronically an attractive slot for scum to push because it's really hard to WK him convincingly

[GuiltyLion]

Vax’s townread of Porkens today was sketchy af

also, again, this was a singular joke comment that both you and Kokichi are blowing way out of proportion to an almost alarming degree

[GuiltyLion]

@Porkens did you target RC n1?

nope

See I told you porkens would town up day 2!

like honestly I ultimately don't think I can say it's AI one way or the other that both of you are taking this angle bc I really can't fathom how either alignment would not see this as a joke. and if scum sees it as a joke and decides to push it intentionally anyway then that's just ridiculously bad play

[GuiltyLion]

I'm a town ammo cop, I can see how many charges someone has. I checked Lady Angel on N2 and found that she had 0 charges remaining, which I loosely crumbed D3

I would like to hear whether Lady Angel has any updates or new thoughts

also I have some light role related reasons to think LA is scum as well - it's not 100% indicative and I don't want to disclose fully yet but just want to note that I am surprised that nothing seemed to change for her overnight, I was expecting that she would re-evaluate or have some more substantial new thoughts to offer in response to my opening poke on her

I don't think my role is all that useful or informative, it does support her claim that she used her action N1 and I wanted to just basically leave enough info in my ISO so people could figure out what I was talking about if I were NK'd. Her claiming protective rather than any kind of investigative role is also consistent with using an action and not really having any changes in reads.

I need to set aside some time to reread and think a bit because it's crunch time and I'm worried I have a blind spot somewhere. Vax and Manatee highly likely to be scum, third could be nearly anyone as far as I'm concerned and I don't feel like I have a solid opinion yet and I'm now getting MYLO/LYLO paranoia about being wrong on Gamma or even Flavor Leaf. I actually think Kokichi claiming roleblocked N2 when he was (presumably) roleblocked on N2 makes him slightly more likely to be town - FL why do you see still him as scum despite his knowing/announcing that he was roleblocked?

[GuiltyLion]

currently I'd say this is where I am, but it needs time to percolate

most highly likely town and if they're scum we're pretty screwed at this point: FL
a mess, but if I had to bet the game on it I'd prob lean town: Kokichi, Porkens
a mess, but I think third scum is one of these two: Gamma, Lady Angel
scum: Vax, Manatee

the thing that still kinda stands out to me is Vax trying to townread Porkens early on D2, and then Gamma and Kokichi riffing on Vax making a joke about it afterwards on D3 when Porkens basically continued not to play. I feel like that points to Porkens not on a team with scum!Vax, but the Gamma/Kokichi approach to the Vax joke post is really awkward. Could be distancing from Gamma?

gonna look at VCs and reread and come back with more thoughts tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

also like I think it mostly goes without saying but like let's be real, there's no universe where Manatee was the night kill if he's town. He's not widely townread and he's not pushing anybody. It'd require like all of the more universally townread players to be scum. I consider that roleblock claim from FL + no kill to be basically a claimed guilty. It's also telling that Manatee didn't react with any suspicion towards FL at all

[GuiltyLion]

actually, I guess the one way that Manatee could plausibly be the kill target is if scum role copped him and were trying to go for a game winning twofer on the off chance he targeted town

ehhhhhh

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, still seems unlikely

[GuiltyLion]

That means Lady charged someone Night 2 if you saw them with 0.

GL can correct me on this, but I assumed his role tracks the amount of charges our main (in my case, Doctor) ability has, not the amount of charge charges we have left.

@GL am I right on this?

yeah, sorry, "charge" was poor phrasing, I should have said "shots". I can see how many times you are able to use your ability (so accounting for cases whether someone has charged you), but it has nothing to do with whether you charged another player already or not.

[GuiltyLion]

Yes, because over Kokichi and Vax on that wagon, I’m the scummy one.

When did she say it had to do with the wagon?

Why the hell would you jail a cop claim, though? Like legit that's awful play. But, I guess it makes sense, since you scumread me?

So it's likely that Manatee is either scum or was the night kill unless there is a doc claim or another RB claim.

these posts feel fluffy
and I thought FL's reasons for jailing you made complete sense

don't make me doubt my TR on you

[GuiltyLion]

So like Idk what to make of Manatee’s claim
Thinking it’s town who wanted to put in their claim because they thought it didn’t fit with the others but not sure

why would town!Manatee not saying anything else while claiming though? like he still hasn't claimed how/whether he's used it even after being arguably "guiltied", and now at this point he's got votes

[GuiltyLion]

also Gamma why haven't you updated us on anything happening in the neighborhood?

[GuiltyLion]

VC 1.18

DS

(7):

RadiantCowbells

, Gamma Emerald, Porkens, Lady Angel, lane0168,

Not_Mafia

,

DS

(LYNCH)

theslimer3

(3): ManateeDude, Vaxkiller,

northsidegal

RadiantCowbells

(1):

theslimer3

ManateeDude (1): Kokichi Oma
Lady Angel (1): GuiltyLion

Not Voting (0):

With 13 players alive it takes 7 to lynch

The deadline is 17 October 11:30am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-10-17 11:30:00)

Mod Notes:
A lynch has been achieved

VC 2.17

Not_Mafia

(6):

theslimer3

, Lady Angel, Kokichi Oma, Porkens, ManateeDude, Vaxkiller

(LYNCH)

Kokichi Oma (3): GuiltyLion, Flavor Leaf,

RadiantCowbells

theslimer3

(1):

Not_Mafia

Porkens (1): Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (0):

With 11 players alive it takes 6 to lynch

Mod notes:
A lynch has been achieved
The vote in 1389 is invalid as it was after a hammer

VC 3.4

theslimer3

(5): GuiltyLion, Flavor Leaf, Vaxkiller, Kokichi Oma, Gamma Emerald (LYNCH)

Not Voting (4): Lady Angel, Porkens, ManateeDude, theslimer3

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

honestly I've looked at these (and colored in the confirmed town members for your benefit) but I don't feel like anything stands out as particularly useful here. There's not much that distinguishes any one player over the others. What I do have:

-if it's Manatee/Kokichi/Vax team as FL has suggested, this would mean D1 mislynch went through with no scum on it - which is not outside the realm of possibility but something I generally consider less likely
-Manatee ended D1 still on his first post-RVS serious vote from 26 (he voted slimer again in 44 despite no votes in between) and then repeatedly voted slimer on D2 yet never actually voted him on the day he was lynched despite opportunities to do so on D3. feels like he stuck with his slimer push all game out of laziness/convenience yet then also managed to mask his participation in pushing him when the mislynch did go through.

nothing super indicative here though. next up I'm gonna review the whole neighborhood discussion

[GuiltyLion]

sorry guys, I apologize, I was terrible in this game. bad reads and didn't have a big presence in deciding the lynches. at times I feel like I was on kokichi but Flavor/Porkens definitely both suckered me hard. I've been getting a little burnt out on mafia so I think it's time for another month or two hiatus to get enthusiastic again.

thanks for modding BNL, I did like the concept and would be down to play another run of a similar setup in the future!

[GuiltyLion]

this is definitely a game to learn from though, somehow FL managed to totally spin my read around on him after I was onto him from the shaky entrance... gonna have to study how he did that and identify where I went wrong. For pretty much my whole time playing mafia I've been trying to become a more flexible player and avoid falling into a tunnel on wrong reads but I think it's moved to a worse state now where I doubt myself too much and am more easily manipulated.

[GuiltyLion]

also for the record my scumread/vote on slimer was pretty much entirely because of that tracker claim not making sense with the already flipped tracker. I didn't see scum!agenda in claiming the way they did but I also could not see how they couldn't be lying/wrong about their role and I guess I mistakenly assumed that they wouldn't be literally just incorrectly understanding/presenting his role. I wouldn't have lynched them otherwise. Probably didn't matter since I would've flipped Vax or Lady well before Flavor Leaf by the end of the game, but still, man, that one hurt.