Mini Normal 2030: Day 8

[Almost50]

Hello everyone. I'm Frank's replacement, and I'm Town. I do not wish to read 106 pages though, so if there are any important

information

that I should know please fill me in. Thank you

[Almost50]

@Mr R: THANK YOU A MILLION! So this is the game where everybody claims already?? That probably means I won't be shot tonight unless I explicitly claim a PR myself!

P.S. Gamma, Creature & TW are the ones I expect to understand the implied joke here, but I saw TW is being replaced too.. so .. *Shrug*

Anyway, I'll go ISO Gamma first.. can't say it will give me an accurate read on him (since it's not being done in real time) but I'll try. I'm not sure I can read FL either way. He is GOOD at disguising his alignment (but bad at a certain thing that isn't related to this game)

Who else do I know? profii, although I don't claim to have a way to read him either. It looks like I'm going to have to actually play the game and not be lazy, but I doubt I'll be doing that in the next few hours. *Sigh*

Anyway, off to examine the Gamma slot

P-edit: @TL: Thanks for bringing it up!

@Mod: May I request a 24 hrs extension?

Just give me time to read a little ( I still won't be reading

everything

or I would have requested a 72 hrs extension for 100+ pages)

[Almost50]

OK.. Gamma's probably Town here. I don't want to lynch that on D1.

Next: Creature slot

[Almost50]

Ugh, Sasha is like my only scumread that didn't claim PR

Is that like "Sasha didn't claim anything"? Or is it "Sasha claimed a VT"??

[Almost50]

OK.. I can't get a read lock on Creature. I would feel bad if I lynched him as Town, but he hasn't exactly town told for me either. Let's call him a null read for now.

Next: TW slot

[Almost50]

new wincon gained: outlive everyone who posts without saying hi to me
{Frank, Manatee, Crimson} and maybe Krazy

Please tell me this didn't roll SK again!

[Almost50]

tw is probably town too. Either that or he has a very good scumster coaching him (that would be Flavour Leaf 99% of the time).

P-edit:

@Ethos: scum!tw necessitates scum!FL in my mind. tw isn't capable of faking this kind of play/claim on his own and planning it in advance (he

has

been crumbing a PR alright). Furthermore, a Gunsmith can be found out (if fake) pretty easily, although the Vig outing doesn't help in this regards.

Tell me something (bc I'm ISOing and not reading the thread as a whole): Did the Vig out before or after tw claimed GS?

[Almost50]

I'm shooting Creature tonight regardless of whether we lynch him or not

So, you're gonna shoot his cold corpse if we lynch him??

Also, this is my point: tw has been mentioning the Vig often way before Krazy said he was the Vig. Normally a GS would expect there to be a Vig (so as to give them a false positive). I beg to differ with profii saying something (in post 1086 or somewhere around that) that tw is likely scum to give scum a chance to catch the Vig. I would like to refer him to Donner Party open setup, where a Town Gunsmith (Dietician) exists along with a Scum Team, a Serial Killer and a

Town Vigilante

. I don't see why Scum would be given a GS to out the Vig specifically (a Role Cop is much more likely to out all TPRs).

So, unless the scum team is literally tw, FL & Krazy I don't think tw is scum here based on his claim and the way he "preluded" it.

[Almost50]

tw is probably town too. Either that or he has a very good scumster coaching him (that would be Flavour Leaf 99% of the time).

P-edit:

@Ethos: scum!tw necessitates scum!FL in my mind. tw isn't capable of faking this kind of play/claim on his own and planning it in advance (he

has

been crumbing a PR alright). Furthermore, a Gunsmith can be found out (if fake) pretty easily, although the Vig outing doesn't help in this regards.

Tell me something (bc I'm ISOing and not reading the thread as a whole): Did the Vig out before or after tw claimed GS?

I am not disregarding the possibility of scum!FL and scum!tw. There are many possible scum teams in my mind, and I will need to see results from today's flip to narrow them down. I didn't see the worst crumb his PR claim. I read his evasiveness as a lack of concern for anything other than his own survival. That's a scum mentality to have, even if you're a power role. He also claimed well before getting to L-1. Why is the worst not capable of fake claiming? Are you just throwing shade, or is that coming from somewhere?

I might have the order wrong, but I do believe that Flavor Leaf heavily suggested that he was a Vig after the Gunsmith claim happened, and then way way way later Krazy claimed Vig and Flavor Leaf said that he had fake claimed earlier.

Ididn't say tw isn't capable of fake claiming, but the way he paved the way to it and the mentioning of a Vig shot as a certainty several times long before the Vig claimed suggest this was a pre-planned fake claim (IF it's a fake claim), and THAT is what tw isn't capable of doing (yet). I have witnessed the guy's development in this game step-by-step, and I have been scum with him in his first scum game. I can tell you he evolved massively alright, but hasn't yet hit the mark of long planning a fake claim and executing the plan the way he did.

here's also that one post by Rocky Horror (the one and only before he replaced out) that has some traces of a townie entrance to the game.

[Almost50]

OIC! So, FL fake claimed Vig. Let me go ISO him now and see how that came into play before I respond.

[Almost50]

Well, at least FL doesn't have a predecessor, but my God that's one hell of an ISO.

[Almost50]

Nope! My point about tw stilol stands. He mentioned the Vig in 701 & 713 long before FL said he would vig Doughboy in 921, and both before Krazy outed, so it's like FL is the scummiest of the 3, and tw "may or may not" be scum IF FL is scum, but is much more likely to be town if FL flips town.

[Almost50]

I see vig mentioned twice pre claim and not in a context of “erm guys pretty sure someone’s a vig if you know what I mean” sort of vibe

He says X should be the vig shot. How much more confidence in the existence of a vig do you want expressed? It's not like this is an open setup or even semi-open where a vig is explicitly an option on the wiki page, and you don't come into closed normal setups expecting they must (or even likely) to have a Vig role included!

[Almost50]

Also, "I'm not today's lynch" is in fact a PR crumb (regardless of whether it's true or fake). I use that all the time to bait the NK myself. Too bad I can't be doing this in this game no matter how hard I try (it also makes me look scummy to some players who are not aware of what I'm doing), and the reason I can't do it is simple: There have been way too many TPR claims already (and they can't be all fake) that I can't come up with one that fits. I guess I could just act like "an unspecified" TPR, but still that's not gonna take precedence over a Vig AND a GS 9not to mention a Doctor), so it will mostly be anti-town with not much to gain.

That being said, I may as well tell you that I am indeed an "unspecified TPR"

[Almost50]

Also, I came across a couple of quotes from Ethos (I didn't ISO the slot itself) and that is very likely a TOWN slot (sorry TW, but your read there sucks. Either that or I'm a fool).

[Almost50]

Manatee is difficult to read because he's scummy as both town and scum.

Btw, I agree to this. I just think Creature didn't do much to remedy the situation and I don't see him obv!towning

[Almost50]

@profii: You're entitled to see it from your own PoV. I'm just expla9ning why I see tw as a likely town player here (unless.. he's scum with FL).

How do you read Creature so far? (Sorry. haven't ISO'd your slot yet. I don't think I'll do it in the next 12 hours as I'm about to call it a day).

[Almost50]

Yeah I am basically with you a50 on most of what you have said. There are two thoughts on the duck:
I do think he is gunsmith, but I think it is not certain yet he is a town gunsmith. The claim being real does not mean his alignment is certain.

I do not get why he replaced out as tpr. I think it would make a lot more sense if he was scum with manatee and just ragequit from shit team.

I was 60% town on the duck but the replace out rocked my read cause I do not get it as duck tpr

Hmmm.. trying to catch up as much as possible it did slip my mind to check his activity during said V/LA actually. He was active on 16 and 17 Sep site-wide. He is also active on 18-19 but not here and he didn't actually request to be replaced in-thread.

tl;dr: You do have a

good

point.

[Almost50]

At a certain point the Mod requested that all replacement requests be made by PM with herself. I think he is scum for the bad claim all around it is scummy.

OK, but.. if you think tw is scum with Creature, then why prefer a Gamma lynch over the two?

[Almost50]

WAI*T! Krazy said tw could be scum with Creature, My bad.

[Almost50]

You may say your role is confirmable but if we have a Doc supposedly in the setup its not necessarily true. Also don't worry I will keep posting until you respond anyway.

Like, he said he was gonna shoot Creature if we don't lynch him today. Do you think Crimson TRs Creature enough to protect him from the claimed Vig shot? (Did Crimson argue about the Creature shot?)

P-edit: LOL. OK.. so you (Krazy) could be shooting the Doctor's protection. That said, it's still of a small chance to actually be the case (both you and Crimson targeting the same person) so let's hope you aim good.

P-edit, P-edit, P-edit.. posting this then reading

[Almost50]

Come on guys. Knock it off, please.

@Krazy: IMHO, Rogers isn't a good Vig shot at all. He claimed Neighbour, right? And you are his neighbour (along with someone else? I don't really care.. I just thought someone said something about a 3rd neighbour, and I don't even remember who said it). Anyway, who puts scum in a neighbourhood with the Town Vig? I mean, you're supposed to talk to each other in that neighbourhood and probably reveal to each other more than you do in public (if you get to TR each othere, that is). Now my point is if scum are put in the neighbourhood with the Town Vig then why the hell give scum a GS too? You both SR tw, yes? Does it make sense to you that tha scum team has a GS AND a neighboourhood with you??

[Almost50]

We never discussed where Krazy will shoot but it should be at the town direction. We should do that.

No we shouldn't. Why give scum additional info on picking their own targets? Like, let's say we direct him to shoot me (say). Scum know I'm town, so probably will shoot elsewhere. However, not telling them he will shoot me always leaves a chance that they will also shoot me (thus wasting their shot because I would have already been shot by him anyway).

[Almost50]

This is WIFOM. We don't know if any claims are true. The only claim we know is true is that we are both Neighbor's but even then either of us could be scum. I had to call him out because I would never be sure if he was scum. He took it personally and ever since then he doesn't type in the Q/T.

This is why I was talking to HIM specifically!

From YOUR PoV, he could be scum, and you're entitled to that read. From HIS PoV, if he is Town then it doesn't make sense to have a scumster in the neighbourhood with him AND a GS looking for him, so he has to reconsider his read on at least one of you/tw.

[Almost50]

Anyway, A50, if you would take a look at Crimson that would be dope.

Can I do that in -say- 12-16 hours? I'm not too familiar with Crimson's playstyle so I wouldn't know what to look for, so I need to be fully awake to read and comprehend. I made him a less priority read because of his claim, but I would certainly try to get a read on him before the EoD.

[Almost50]

I notice you are doing this alot Almost.

I mean doing setup spec with unconfirmed claims and such. It is kinda starting to bother me...

You're an alt of someone In know? (Don't tell me your main if you don't want to. I just don't think I ever played this account/alt of yours).

[Almost50]

Signing off now, and hopefully will have a few others posting by the the time I come back. There are 4-5 slots I need to ISO+talk to before the day ends.

P-edit: Yup. That was swell.

Thank you, Nauci

[Almost50]

Does town catch scum Day 1 more often than not? Some of today's options feel much more like a coinflip than I'd like.

Generally speaking, a mislynch occurs more often on D1 because the town (by definition) is uninformed, so unless someone scums it up real bad or is hard scum by meta the answer is "no, town do not catch scum more often than not".

That said, I have seen it happen more often of late specifically because of one of the two reasons I mentioned (i.e. someone is playing too scummy, probably someone who doesn't like or doesn't know how to play scum. or someone who just rolled scum with a couple of town players who do know them well so can accurately meta their play).

[Almost50]

PEDIT: Nossir. Just speaking about in this game.

OK. Got ya. It's a fact I like to setup spec and list possibilities to show how I'm thinking. Sometimes -on Day 1- I would avoid a lynch on someone scummy because I see something that could point out to them being a PR (and believe me, too many players play scummy when they're TPRs, sometimes on purpose (to avoid being NK'd) but most often because of the additional tension/responsibilities).

[Almost50]

The odds are that town will lynch town more often than not but this is not a mathematical game. Proper play should yield mafia far more than not. The problem is players don't play properly and it makes it harder to find scum than it normally should be. I think the two strongest scum suspects are Sauda & Gamma. We won't have enough votes for Sauda and so that would leave Gamma but I am not sure if everyone has seen what I have seen with the sheeping/BW-ing but I know I am not the only one. I think Creature is town and I definitely will not lynch Sasha D1. That covers it for me.

Gamma doesn't usually sheep as scum. He more often parks his vote on someone and lurks for as long as he can, and sometimes he tries to shade his own partners for distancing. Of course this isn't the case 100% of the time (or he would be very easy to identify as scum), but sheeping isn't a scum tell from him.

[Almost50]

Are claims often bluffs, or are they generally reliable?

I'm happy to call myself experienced, yet I'd be the last one you would want to answer this one.

Since many of you are unfamiliar with me, bluffs are an integral part of my town play. In fact I may use one in proper time ( and you may wonder why is he saying that, and the answer is my bluffs still work regardless)

For proof, check this game out. I replaced in on N1, so started playing on D2, and by the end of the day I convinced both

scum and SK

to shoot me on N2, despite the fact

I hard claimed VT

(and it was true).

In short, do as you will with others, but don't use me as gauge.

[Almost50]

Like, I want to interrogate Gamma some, but I'm still not on top of everything so it won't be that fruitful at this point.

I'll go read a few things and come back with what I find

[Almost50]

UNVOTE: ManateeDude
VOTE: Pernicious Parrot for too much parroting.

Aww. I wanted to start like an actual wagon on him.

VOTE: Manatee

@Crimson: Why did you wait for this to vote Manatee? In other words, you say you wanted to get a wagon going on him, so why didn't you vote him in your first post?

[Almost50]

Call me a jerk (its easy!) but FoS FL for having "trouble" formulating his reads; inconsistency in the way reads have been formulated.,

Not calling you anything, but inconsistency is a towntell for most experienced players. When you know nothing you are just taking shots in the dark and considering all possibilities (including contradicting ones, like "if X is scum them Y is Town" but also "If Y is Scum hen I don't know what X is doing" as opposed to just "they can't be scum together")

As an informed scumster you would have a road map to follow in order to be convincing and direct the (mis)lynch (and probably the whole game) the way you want.

Note: I am strictly talking about

experienced

players, which is the case at hand. Also this is no way a hard defence of FL. It's just a general rule of the thumb.

[Almost50]

I know this VC is outdated but i'm pretty sure scum was in Saudade's wagon. Leaning for Frank here.

I agree. Frank is the scummiest scum in scum hell. I even.. WAIT! That's MY slot!! Scratch that and let me try again: I strongly disagree. Frank was the towniest townie in Town paradise.

[Almost50]

Almost, we have 9 hours. Can’t necessarily expect that deadline to get extended.

Where do you think is best?

We have a day and a few more hours. I requested a 24 hours extension and Nauci kindly granted me that.

[Almost50]

Almost, we have 9 hours. Can’t necessarily expect that deadline to get extended.

Where do you think is best?

I also have too many nulls still. My reads so far:

TOWN: the worst, Mister Rogers,
Town: Light Ethos,
town: Crimson97, Krazy, Gamma,
null: Creature,

TOWN is someone I will fight against their lynch today. Town is someone I'm TRing and won't be voting but not sure how to defend them. "town" is someone I would rather not touch today (not really TRing that strong but I'd rather not lynch today).

Anyone else I have no clue. For instancel you (FL) had a lousy start of the game, but you're looking town on these past few pages. You know I know you are a very good scumster (and you know I even mislynched you once as soon as you replaced in out of that paranoia) so I can't say I have confidence in my read on you. I guess you could go into "town" for now.

Profii also looks town but I haven't even ISO'd him yet.

Gun to my head I would vote one of Sasha/Saudade/Creature/Naomi (Naomi being the least desired of them, bc I saw a couple of posts on the opening pages that felt townie to me).

Now the problem IS trying to verify these SRs by guessing who their most likely partners might be, and not once have I come up with a 3-person team out of these 4 (i.e. there's always someone I TR that is more likely scum if one or two of these 4 flip red than the other 2 of them).

[Almost50]

Hello all. I see you there light, FL, GE, krazy, crimson, creat, a50, prof.
I'm sorry if I forgot anyone else.

I did a super quick skim and wow - anyone who didn't have saud as tr, shame on you . Could even tr him from before replacing and I was right, yes! Never been wrong about this except that 1 time I came into an SK slot.

In related news, GE pushing for a lynch on me when we have little time left, is very A L A R M I N G. I saw 1 claim in my skim.
Can people summarize what happened so far because I am not going thru an unreal 110 page d1... this is M E S S E D U P, why so many pages!?

Hi there.

Could you please quickly summarize why you TR'd your predecessor before you replaced in? I am not familiar with them at all, so maybe you can draw my attention to something I don't know about them. (This is why I don't feel like ISOing some slots because I don't know what I'm looking for in their ISO anyway).

[Almost50]

Glad to see you. You were a great IC in the game we played before.

GOOD! So you two can give reads on each other that are better than mine on either of you. Please do help (of course Performer needs to post some for Light to be able to form a read)

[Almost50]

You may say your role is confirmable but if we have a Doc supposedly in the setup its not necessarily true. Also don't worry I will keep posting until you respond anyway.

Like, he said he was gonna shoot Creature if we don't lynch him today. Do you think Crimson TRs Creature enough to protect him from the claimed Vig shot? (Did Crimson argue about the Creature shot?)

P-edit: LOL. OK.. so you (Krazy) could be shooting the Doctor's protection. That said, it's still of a small chance to actually be the case (both you and Crimson targeting the same person) so let's hope you aim good.

P-edit, P-edit, P-edit.. posting this then reading

I don't think they're the best shot. Sash and Frank are better options imo but i wouldn't be totally against it either.

Crimson, are you reading the game thoroughly?? I am Frank's replacement.

FrankJaeger

= Almost50 now.

And the question was/is: would you be protecting someone the vig said they would shoot tonight? And if you would in general, would that person be Creature? Are you TRing Creature so hard that you would risk shading the claimed vig?

[Almost50]

Oh wait you're Frank's replacement lol. Well i'll read you and see if you change my mind about the slot.

Good! I think I've posted enough for anyone to get a preliminary read on my alignment. Do you think this is scum!me?

P.S. Not sure and don't feel like doing a search now, but I think we played before in some game.

[Almost50]

Hello all. I see you there light, FL, GE, krazy, crimson, creat, a50, prof.
I'm sorry if I forgot anyone else.

I did a super quick skim and wow - anyone who didn't have saud as tr, shame on you . Could even tr him from before replacing and I was right, yes! Never been wrong about this except that 1 time I came into an SK slot.

In related news, GE pushing for a lynch on me when we have little time left, is very A L A R M I N G. I saw 1 claim in my skim.
Can people summarize what happened so far because I am not going thru an unreal 110 page d1... this is M E S S E D U P, why so many pages!?

Yaaawn
So you skimmed 100+ pages in how long? Seems infeasible.

Gamma, why do you keep doing this to me, brother? In every game we play together I try hard to not auto-SR you, and I wait until I see something conclusive, and in every game you manage to confuse me by doing something townie and mixing it with something scummy! Why is

skimming

100+ pages infeasible? Did you notice that he said it was done even before he replaced in? Do you know how long the replacement requests have been posted in the replacement thread?

[Almost50]

@a50 it was saud was interacting with rogers iirc, the tone of his reactions, his interactions in his ISO with others. I rely on ISO a lot.

That doesn't help me much, but thanks for caring to respond.

I was more hoping for something like "he did this specific thing which in my experience he doesn't do as scum" or "as scum he does this (which he did) whereas as scum he does that (which he didn't)".

[Almost50]

also I still don't know why Performer replaced Saudade slot over the worst slot

That's for the mod to know and for you to ask.

[Almost50]

Scum Doctor flip makes it so we can without a doubt trust any gunsmith investigative, too.

I see your point, but I have a problem with this "straight forward" theoretical process of thought: If Crimson flips Scum!Doc then both of Krazy/tw will be shot for sure. Sometimes I would rather leave someone alone to protect someone else. In this case

assuming

scum doctor is alive then -at least- one of the TPRs will stay alive because the doctor is supposed to be protecting them. If they both go down that's a guilty on the claimed doctor slot. (I hope I didn't send everyone looking for an English-Martian dictionary to decipher what I'm trying to say)

[Almost50]

VOTE: Crimson

OMG! This is the scummiest post/vote in your mafia history, mate. Since when do YOU vote claimed PRs for the lynch on D1 without a CC? I mean, you're one of the most orthodox players when it comes to town play theory, and I simply don't see you pushing for the lynch of a claimed PR here. Can you either elaborate or prove me wrong by linking a previous game on MAFIASCUM where you did this?

P.S. I am obviously not interested on games on "other sites" because the whole site meta is different there, so that's why I am asking for a link to a game on this site.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Crimson

INB$ someone asks why I singled out Creature and ignored FL's vote. The answer is within my response to Creature: Creature is an orthodox player. FL is definitely not. I can see this vote coming from town!FL but I am having trouble seeing it come from town!Creature.

[Almost50]

I doubt we have a full vig with a full gunsmith with a full doctor

The doctor claim seems the less believable

Maybe I'm taking too far? If so, I'm sorry, and I assure you I am not trying to harass you in any way, shape or form.

That said; why the hell do you think a limited shot PR should claim that? Isn't "town Vig/GS/Doc" enough info for TOWN?

[Almost50]

If push comes to shove (i.e. we run out of time) I am 100% for a Creature lynch (and you can see it in my ISO). I am just not trying to rush things or force anything because most of my reads are shakey and I don't have enough confidence in them.

Maybe this will help Creature show me he is town (if he is)?

VOTE: Creature

[Almost50]

Doughboi, flavor flav town pile. Krazy too I guess just for the neighbor thing.

I guess Frank wasn't doing bad at all regarding his reads. I am now wondering why he was being SR'd!

[Almost50]

Stop. We’re masons.

Titus? Is that you?

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

Now I feel kind of amputated! You know well you're better than me in "balancing" setups, so I can't argue against your theories. :/

So, 2 Masons + Vig/GS/Doc (one of which is probably a fake claim, but I have no clue which one). The Vig being in a neighbourhood too. Frank did say there were likely "more neighbourhoods" (Masons do count as "neighbourhoods") so he was correct again (this is good for when I play him next). Anyone else want to claim anything?

VOTE: Crimson

@Creature: Forgive me, but you really really need to learn to play normal when you're conf!town. I now fully know what was lacking and why I didn't spot town you, and you probably do too.

[Almost50]

@Performer 9and anyone else who cares, really): Creature being a mason does line up with his play. When he is confirmed (as in mod-confirmed IC) he lurks out exactly as if he was scum (or his "old" scum meta according to Gamma). Here he didn't exactly lurk out, but still wasn't super active and didn't take initiative which made me think he might be trying to change his scum meta (according to Gamma he is). Now I know why he has been playing that way.

Furthermore, scum can't afford to let masons live to end game, so that's another self-resolving slot anyway.

[Almost50]

If anyone was skeptical about Krazy's alignment still; his frustration on this page is a good indicator. I mean, I don't see scum raging over this. Do you?

[Almost50]

@Performer:

re Crimson: FL's got a point with the scum Dr also returning a false clear to the GS for starters. It's a balancing thing, and if you believe the town has a Doctor, a Vig, a Neighbor, a Gunsmith and a pair of Masons then what do you think scum have?

Let me try a different approach: Gunsmith can be countered by a COP. If we have no Cop claim then we must accept the GS to be our only investigative role.

We agree on Krazy being a strong Town read for both of us, so I don't need to argue for his role, do I?

That leaves us with the Doctor claim. If we do have a Doctor (on top of the above 2 roles) then the scum team must be loaded already. Now add the Masons to the equation and it'd bordering on a Role Madness already. That's why I can see it FL's way.

re Creature: I don't know how to respond to this without actually breaking the rules. Sorry!

[Almost50]

Gunsmith
2 masons
Odd night vig

Mafia
Doc
Goon
Goon

Is balanced.

Mate, you just said we may have another indirect investigative. Also what is the function of the neighbourhood in this?

[Almost50]

Creature I still luv you and I'm glad ur not scum

I was feeling bad about shooting you until you voted me and then I was happy cause you were scum and we could just lynch you in a gentlemanly manner

will you ever forgive me for misreading your tpr game?

Sure, I had misread you too.

If that's the case then I'm never going to feel sorry for misreading you, because that's what you do to me in like 60-70% of my games with you.

[Almost50]

I don't want to lynch Rogers. Let me try to remember why I had him as a solid TR. Let's start with Doughboy:

1- Why would a scum neighbor try to lynch his neighbor? Why not just shoot them at night if they're bothering them, and -even better- why not try to pocket them? Everyone knows pocketing one person in a neighborhood is so much easier than talking to the crowds anyway. (P.S. I finally dropped the 'u' from 'neighbour' )

2- Why do scum bother to ask people to reduce the number of posts? I can understand if it was like "I can't read that much.. oh bother" kind of thing, but the fact is he was actively engaging, discussing, and FoSing people, and it benefits him to have the thread flooded to be able to divide the town. He didn't even try to use THAT against the two people who he was already FoSing.

Now Rogers:

Well, I didn't (and probably won't) read his full ISO. I just don't see scum picking a fight with the strongest player on the list (FL) and also trying to lynch tw whose lynch is being stonewalled by both myself and FL. It's like he's banging his head against a stone wall here.

P-edit: HOLY SHIT! I went back to reread Doughboy's ISO and you guys got hyper active!!

[Almost50]

The mod had just announced that Crimson was planning to replace out. Only then, did Krazy ask for the hard claim. I took offense to Krazy not leaving it to the person who would replace in to claim.

I had to go back to verify my memory wasn't playing a trick on me:

Mod Notes

Crimson97 has requested replacement. Now seeking.

Mod Notes

Crimson97 has requested to not be replaced and may now resume posting.

Crimson hardclaim now

There are no edit remarks at the bottom of 2111, meaning it was edited before 2112 was posted, and thus 2113 by Krazy was made in response to Crimson pulling back his replace out request.

[Almost50]

@Rogers: Let me put it this way.. I do not mind lynching the (town) doctor on D1. Why? Because the doctor is much more valuable towards the end of the game (and Crimson won't be living that long if he is town), and because they don't function well at the early stages (chances are dim for him to actually protect the person the Mafia are shooting). In short, assuming he is indeed a Town Doctor he is now effectively a VT, and shall still be for the next 2 game days.

That said, I am very skeptical of the claim itself in light of the setup spec FL provided, so that adds to my "not minding" lynching Crimson.

Finally, it's such an informative lynch. It has become an info-rich one because of this very debate we are all having. I mean, if he does flip red everyone who pushed for his lynch is virtually confirmed a townie because there is absolutely no reason for scum to hard bus Crimson with this game status. If he flips green, those who drove the lynch + the other claims become suspicious, and if all were true then we should expect a very strong Mafia team.

Now let's assume we lynch TW, What info do we get from him flipping red/green? Let's assume we lynch from the pool outside the claims. What info do we get from any of them flipping either way? I want as much information as possible from today's lynch to be able to read the interactions, and so do all active PRs to decide their target(s).

The only point against that Crimson lynch was the TW/Krazy survival, but now we also have 2 Masons, so even assuming we leave Crimson alive there's only a 25% of him protecting the right NK if he is town (33% assuming TW is fake claiming) and scum!Crimson can very well get away with that anyway, so keeping him alive only keeps us guessing.

[Almost50]

creat later claimed mason unprovoked on d1

Creature didn't claim. FL claimed when I voted Creature. I also don't recall saying he plays anything before FL explicitly outed they're masons.

[Almost50]

@FL:

Explain Crimson's approach to Manatee at the start of the game. Could it be that Manatee knows Crimson's play well enough that Crimson wanted to take the initiative to make it look like OMGUS when Manatee calls him out??
Also why is Crimson defending Horror against Saudade?
I'll admit 346 coming at the back of [post]345[/pos] doesn't bode well with me, so if Crimson is scum Saudade is likely his p (which in today's terms translates as Crimson+Performer, btw).

[Almost50]

Are you town this game?

I am town and I suspect you're not. I now want Crimson lynched more because I think you are his p.

[Almost50]

@Performer: I wish tw could come back so that I can ask him why he quit this game.

Now let's see.. scum!me would never defend scum!tw here. Why? Because that slot is likely to get mod-killed and flipped anyway. Defending my scum p when he is going to flip is suicidal, don't you think? In fact, lynching that slot is the right play (for scum!me) because it give town no new info they're weren't gonna get anyway.

Town me though genuinely believes tw is incapable of such play as he demonstrated (and this is not to say tw is a weak player. His strongest suit as scum is

appearing town

though). I want an informative flip and will be counting on tw getting mod-killed for additional info.

Now do you realize how bad it would make me look if: a- tw flips red? b- both tw and Crimson flip green?
In short, do you realize how bad I'd look if Crimson flips green regardless of tw's flip? Are you kidding me? Am I that bad as scum in your view??

[Almost50]

he knew I was real despite my play this game being abysmal because he's scum

Ok, let's take this step-by-step:

How would scum "know" you're for real?

[Almost50]

How would scum "know" you're for real?

no third parties, while townies do sometimes fakeclaim vig to bait a nightkill, I don't think he would think me claiming vig at L-2 would be a vanilla townie claiming vig. I think if you're scum and you know I'm not scum then you know I'm vig, and profii is the only person who seemed to reach that conclusion and start playing around me at the time

Ok. Scratch that. Not the answer I was hoping for anyway.

My "ideal" answer was because scum would expect there to be a Vig. And then I ask why would they, and you say something like "either the Doc or the GS is actually a scum role". At this point we would've got somewhere because I'll agree and re-case town!tw for you so you would accept "the good probability" of Crimson flipping a Mafia Doctor.

But your answer doesn't even touch on that line of thinking.. so.. *Shrug*

[Almost50]

But your answer is valid though. Don't get me wrong on this. I mean, if I were you I can see why you'd beleiev they'd know you're for real anyway.

[Almost50]

I think he was looking forward to the modkills

Now that's interesting. I mean, why would any townie be looking forward to see 2 modkills at once? Unless he SR them both it doesn't make much sense to me. ( I believe these were my slot and tw's? Please correct me if I'm wrong).

[Almost50]

but I'll seriously reconsider my Mafia career after this game.

This would be a

really

bad call.

First and foremost: you learn (gain experience) the more you play. This game is actually a hard one for a newbie indeed, not because of the setup (it's still a Normal after all) but because the players are doing a great job (and I mean everyone not just scum, because although I am adamant on lynching Crimson now I do not have an 80% confidence even, so everyone is doing well appearing "not scummy").

The point is most other normal games, and the majority of games with open setups (these are games where you know exactly what roles are in the game) are much easier for newbies to play. You just weren't too lucky being in this game in particular, but the experience you get from playing here will help you in the near future.

tl;dr: Please reconsider your reconsideration. We want you to stay active on MS, and I promise to be nice whenever we meet again

[Almost50]

tw won’t be modkilled though

How do you know? The mod said if no replacement was found in proper time she would be modkilling the slot. Do you happen to have an update on that?

You see, a post like this.. if I look at it without considering my own read on tw.. tells me you are scum with him. It makes me think you were told or at least expect the mod won't modkill your p for balancing reasons.

[Almost50]

So you asked a leading question

Yes, I did. So? If you have something to say you better say it, bud!

[Almost50]

the players are doing a great job

Is this actually true with respect to most other games you've played? Please don't take my question as an expression that I disagree with you; it's an honest question.

It is. In most other games either a Mafioso scums it up, or a TOWNIE acts too scummy everyone wants to lynch them.

Here, neither scum are being scummy nor are town.

[Almost50]

Mod Notes

Not_Mafia replaced The Worst/RockyHorror.

All replacement slots have been filled as of right now. There will not be any further extensions of day 1.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-09-21 00:00:00).

And this guys is stalking me.

Anyone for a bet on what N_M's 1st post says??

[Almost50]

It's gonna be a hammer on Crimson

You're on. I say it's "wassup **nts"

[Almost50]

You don't put anyone @L-1 with N_M in the game unless you're ready to end the day. Period.

Hint (since Sasha is new): Not_Mafia hammers anyone @L-1 regardless of his own alignment. So, unless he is already on the wagon on D2/3/4 do NOT put anyone @L-1

[Almost50]

You can put him to L-1 now, Sash.

I think that’s acceptable.

I'm not against ending the day either. I just had to let Sasha know who N_M is and what to expect from him.

[Almost50]

@Rogers: Your resentment of the lynch is noted and well documented. However, we do need a lynch and this is where most of us want it to be. From my PoV it has nothing to do with the tw situation, as I'm not defending tw for claiming a PR, but rather for the manner he did it and his overall play.

Also, scum do not lynch the guy they want to NK. In fact, they try to lynch someone they don't want to waste their shot on, and shoot someone they cannot afford to push for the lynch.

That said, why is it so hard to get people to vote Crimson if scum want him dead? I'd say scum are avoiding the wagon, and that could either be because he is town and they don't want to take responsibility for his lynch, or he's scum and they don't want to lose him on D1.

[Almost50]

After the game, I'd really appreciate it if someone who is experienced can tell me which letter is (in general and in the context of this player meta) most likely for each combination of alignment for the worst and Crimson.

My own rule of the thumb is: to try outguessing scum, think as one. Forget your role PM for a minute and imagine yourself to be a member of the mafia with each of these scenarios, and answer your own questions (to yourself, not in public). This is most useful too when you are either a protective (a Doctor, a Bodyguard or a Jailkeeper trying to protect someone), or an informative (basically watcher). By trying to figure out what YOU would do if you were Mafia you have abetter chance of targeting the NK (thus either protecting them or catching the scum doing the kill).

[Almost50]

@Rogers: Just out of curiosity (and since I have nothing better to do before I go to sleep).. what do you do when you play a role madness game? by definition, everyone is a PR in those, so what do you normally do in them on D1?

[Almost50]

You want us to lynch a Mason claim instead of a Doctor claim?? Or are you saying Mafia are pushing the Town one after one?

Tell me something, the Mafia now have 6 claims (assuming they're all true and counting the neighbour as a VT claim). There are 3 Mafia so that's 9 roles revealed to them, so 4 are still unknown (unless someone is fake claiming so that would be 5 or even 6 unknown roles to them). Why aren't they trying to push any of those to get claims too? I mean, they'd mostly get VT claims, I realize that, but according to FL there could still be another indirect investigative/informative role out there, so why not try to find it?

[Almost50]

You want us to lynch a Mason claim instead of a Doctor claim?? Or are you saying Mafia are pushing the Town one after one?

Please tell me you're asking Mister Rogers and not me.

I am. It was a response to his 3198

[Almost50]

I was only speaking to Light because of a previous post. I didn't say anything else. I want to catch the scum on the Crimson wagon. I disagree with all the setup speculation and so all pleas to that logic simply fall on deaf ears.

You haven't answered my "out-of-curiosity" question about what you do in role madness games.

[Almost50]

Now I hope the mod is online or will come online sometime soon, because I don't think I can sleep without knowing Crimson's alignment after all this.

[Almost50]

Btwm, RE: Gamma, would a player of Gamma's skill bus NM?

I don't think bussing your p on D2 after your other p has been lynched on D1 is at all an option.

Sasha was one of my strongest suspects after the Crimson flip has been confirmed, so while I regret the death of TPR I really really can't blame Krazy for shooting there.

I also say it's very unlikely (from my own PoV) that Rogers is scum. I don't see scum going out of there way to defend Crimson that hard. He is most probably just a noob playing by the book. (Despite his join date he has less than 2K posts in total).

Back to mys suspects, I think Performer/Gamma have at least one scum in them (now that Sasha is gone). In my mind it was Performer+Sasha with Gamma as an outsider. I admit I still could be wrong about Gamma because I have a tendency to SR his playstyle of late, so not pushing there.

Also, I see N_M already accumulated 4 votes, so I think it's safe to

VOTE: Performer

for now, although I have yet to read beyond this post I'm quoting.

@Rogers: Check tw's read lists (he posted 2 of them). In both he had Sasha as a STRONG TOWN READ. That's not scum!tw. Scum!tw would have gone with the flow, and Sasha was by no means a global TR. I'm not gonna talk about his TR on Krazy and/or SR on Crimson because -if scum- his knowledge of their true alignments would dictate such reads (since they were both "claimed PRs"). Sasha didn't claim and thus I see no reason for tw to TR him this strong.

Anyway, will try to catch up in the next few minutes bc I have a game to watch and then come back to you.

[Almost50]

2) I actually don’t dislike the gunsmith on town, HOWEVER, it does also make sense as scum, I’ll give it that, but it gets fake guilties on the vig and the cop.

i.e. it was meant to be a NEGATIVE UTILITY

[Almost50]

Rogers is town for that defense of Crimson. Gamma town for his push right now. Naomi town for her push of Crimson.

According to this, you think it's Performer and ... Profii???

I mean, you've declared Rogers, Gamma, Naomi, Light & N_M as town reads. You and Creature are Masons, and I don't think you would consider me for scum today!! (Light also has no gun, so if N_M is town then Light is most likely mechanically cleared).

P-edit: Yes. The Gunsmith outs 2 PRs at the very least, if not leading to the lynch of one of them out of paranoia.

[Almost50]

I think Saudade slot is scum over Ducky slot.

OK, maybe I misunderstood. So you do NOT have that much confidence in the N_M slot anymore.

[Almost50]

Mafia is proven not to have a roleblocker

GOOD POINT.

[Almost50]

I am for a mass claim if that helps you see things better from a setup-balancing perspective.

[Almost50]

Well, that's a difference in playstyles I think. I wouldn't fancy bussing a partner after one has been lynched so early myself. then again it's probably bc I'm used to being (a) an early investigation target, and (b) and early NK if town. This means if there's an investigative I wouldn't want to be the last survivour of my team, and the very fact that I'm still alive on -say- D4 makes people suspect me.

[Almost50]

I am completely lost when it comes to the setup-speculations.
A separate question that I should have asked at the beginning of the game when Parrot posted it: What does negative utility mean? Does it mean a power role that has a downside to it for balance purposes?

Yes. Millers give fake guilties to Cops, and thus are a negative utility. PGO's could potentially kill TPRs and thus are a negative utility. Ascetic is also a negative utility bc the PR gets nothing on them which is a waste of an investigative/informative shot.. and so on.

[Almost50]

I can buy this, but for me that's the same reasoning behind why I read Saudade as town for pushing Sashaddin. The difference between Saudade/Performer and the worst/Not_Mafia is that the first two actually put effort into looking for scum.

2 things:

1- How can you tell between someone who "actually put an effort into something" vs someone who "actually put an effort into

faking

something"?

2- I know tw's scum play. He wants to keep most of his (mis)lynching options open just in case. He also doesn't like draw attention, so he goes with the flow mostly, and would only do that (TR someone who is not globally TR'd) to someone like me (because I know him and he knows I won't be lynched anyway, so he deals with that by TRing me by day and shooting me at night).

[Almost50]

Also, at least one of the two remaining scum was not high on Krazy's TRs. If I was scum here with -say- FL and knew Krazy was TRing us both we would have definitely let him shoot again on N2 (the more he takes them down for us the better, and there's always a chance we can set him up as a Serial Killer if push comes to shove, but I think him shooting someone else narrows down the pool for us to find that Town protective role FK is assuming is out there).

[Almost50]

To be fair, i feel I was a likely protection candidate, though.

We don't

know

there's a protective though. I mean, sure.. scum may also suspect we might have one, and that made it easy for them not to shoot you, but why Krazy over N_M is my question. I would have probably shot the GS over the Vig if I was scum.

[Almost50]

To be fair, i feel I was a likely protection candidate, though.

We don't

know

there's a protective though. I mean, sure.. scum may also suspect we might have one, and that made it easy for them not to shoot you, but why Krazy over N_M is my question. I would have probably shot the GS over the Vig if I was scum.

If they have a doctor, they definitely don’t want to shoot the gunsmith. Especially if their non doctor isn’t likely to be checked and their doctor is.

Considering Crimson claimed doctor, i wouldn’t be surprised if he claimed one of his partner’s roles.

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised either. I did win a scum game once by claiming JK when I did have a JK in my team. In fact, that was the game when people started taking my scum game seriously afterwards.

[Almost50]

@Not Mafia - check Almost tonight. Him being confirmed will be great.

I wanted to propose this before, but then realized it won't "clear" me. If you're right about scum having a Doctor; I could be it. Even if they don't have one, we don't know that yet. All in all, those who want to Sr me will find a way to do it.

Now I could actually prove my towniness using self-meta, but that would only convince you and not everyone else. Furthermore, not only do people don't trust self-meta, but me using the argument would require me to reveal something in my scum play that I haven't been able to implement into my town play yet. In other words, it could prove devastating to my scum game in the foreseen future.

[Almost50]

I did the wagonomics on Profii, he isn't scum for his VERY early interactions with the Crimson wagons.

Can you list which interactions brought you to that conclusion?

1785

The actions of Profii and myself are identical regarding Crimson.

Mate, anyone could vote their partner for distancing when the wagon isn't even that serious. The thing is he tried to defend Crimson (by stating there was no resistance to his wagon) while actively voting there. He then sheeped you into voting Krazy as soon as Crimson claimed.

tl;dr: If anything, that VC you quoted is NAI.

[Almost50]

I also want Performer and really hope he flips red, because then it puts my mind to ease for good regarding Rogers. I mean, I gave him slack for defending Crimson, but if profii is also scum I'm PLing Rogers for his defence of profii based on a "3rd vote on scum wagon which he changed soon after".

In other words I could see it being profii+Rogers but it would make me laugh at myself being the VI here.

[Almost50]

If you want to force the scum hand you need to actually ask N_M to check Rogers. If we do have a doctor they should be on FL still. This way scum will have to shoot in N_M/Rogers regardless. (If one is scum and one is Town they have to shoot the town one to cover for the scum. If both are town they still need to shoot between the two to avoid having another clear outed).

[Almost50]

Why is this phrased "you need to"? This is so unnatural sounding?

He wants to force the scum hand, so he would have to do so and so. What's unnatural about the phrasing?
If you mean I should have used

we

instead then it's up for debate, because FL already asked N_M to check ME. The same applies if you wanted me to use

I

instead. Basically, if

I

ask N_M to check you it would look like

I

don't want to be checked.

[Almost50]

How would scum "know" you're for real?

no third parties, while townies do sometimes fakeclaim vig to bait a nightkill, I don't think he would think me claiming vig at L-2 would be a vanilla townie claiming vig. I think if you're scum and you know I'm not scum then you know I'm vig, and profii is the only person who seemed to reach that conclusion and start playing around me at the time

@PL: How about we switch to profii? That's where Krazy was most suspicious going into the night and profii almost hinted cop while we now do have a flipped cop. What do you think?

[Almost50]

Stick to the plan with NM/Performer

N_M is/was never in my plan.

[Almost50]

Flavour Leaf

Mate, there's absolutely no point in checking the Masons. Why? because we already lynched one scum, so we are looking for two, and if the Masons are faking then they are the two.

Now why can't that be the case? Simple: Krazy wasn't gonna shoot in them, so if these are the scum pair we're looking for they would have 100% shot the GS (the role that could have gone rogue and ruined their gambit). Since scum opted to shoot Krazy over N_M, then NO WAY IN HELL are FL & Creature faking.

So, please pick someone from myself, Gamma or Rogers (personally I want Rogers checked bc I TR the slot still but would feel like a fool if that is scum being too scummy to be scum). My next preference is myself over Gamma, and the reason I put Rogers before myself is I am still waiting for that bullet with my name on it to continue the trend, so there is always a chance (no matter how small bc there are outed PRs and conf!Town slots) that I would be shot and the check is rendered useless.

[Almost50]

and it's between nm & rogers.

Rogers only claimed neighbour with Krazy, and Krazy ( a flipped townie) confirmed it!

[Almost50]

and it's between nm & rogers.

Rogers only claimed neighbour with Krazy, and Krazy ( a flipped townie) confirmed it!

That doesn't clear me. I could still be scum if the neighbor claim is the only criteria. If you read my play carefully however, there is no way I can be scum. I can make my town case very well, to the point that its like intellectually impossible I am scum.

Wasn't discussing your alignment. I was responding to the phrase "fake claim". Yours can't be a fake claim.

[Almost50]

*Sigh* I guess that confirms Creature as TOWN. Scum!Creature wouldn't shoot his fake Mason buddy now.

But GDI! That changes everything regarding our setup spec. I dunno where to go from here tbh.

[Almost50]

So save me some time: Creature and Flavor fakeclaimed masons?
Who claimed first?

FL did. Creature confirmed.

[Almost50]

Still, don't understand why Flavor was killed over me if scum intended to kill masons. I thought I was more threatening.

How are you more threatening when you've not even been playing? At least you now need to give us some feedback.

[Almost50]

VOTE: profii

I'll wait for N_M to out his result before I decide where to vote. Profii is in my lynch pool alright, but I'm in no hurry.

[Almost50]

I didn't get a result

Who was your target?

[Almost50]

If you were Creature and someone else said “we’re masons”

Why wouldn’t your reaction be “wtf lynch all liars”

1- Because I'm Town and Scum wouldn't fake Masons with me to save

me

from the lynch.
2- Because I'm scum and it benefits me anyway.

IMHO 1 >>>>> 2. Why? Because if Creature is scum it would be most stupid to shoot the one person who was 100% TRing him to the point of faking Masons with him. Scum!Creature would ride that claim to LyLo and if push came to shove would lynch FL for the win.

Like, seriously.. what are the benefits for Scum to shoot FL now??

[Almost50]

Also, N_M could have returned a guilty on Creature, which would have meant we lynch them BOTH, i.e. that was a guaranteed mislynch for scum in FL if Creature was flipped first.

[Almost50]

I didn't get a result

Vote: Not_Mafia

Bad vote. N_M isn't getting lynched in this game. (Why would scum claim to have not received a result? He could have said he checked FL like he said he would).

[Almost50]

Hello? Are you even reading? FL is DEAD. What info would we be getting from knowing our flipped VT had no gun?

[Almost50]

Wait, was NM told to check FL?

No, He was told not to, after he said he would. He never responded though, so I am waiting on him to say whom he targeted.

[Almost50]

Not_Mafia claims to have gotten no result. Other than being role blocked, what else would return no result?

Ascetic

[Almost50]

@Creature: Proffi is like 90% scum here. He is trying to shade the towniest slots in the game to get his way. Stop responding to him like he is of an unknown alignment.

Now do you think it more likely that Rogers is his scum buddy?

My vote is on profii in spirit, but I want N_M to tell us who was his target last night.

P.S. FL was shot partially because he was the "confirmed townie" blocking the lynch of N_M. It also severely weakens the town block and profii (and his p) can now shade you too, not to mention trying to lynch me.

[Almost50]

Who did mafia roleblocker roleblock N1?

there is no "Mafia" Roleblocker. I am the TOWN Roleblocker, and >I< blocked N_M last night to verify once and for all that he was indeed a GS. If he had given a result (either way) on ANYONE he would have been caught in a lie and I would have drove his lynch myself. Since he says he didn't get a result I know he has a check for real, and it was blocked by me, so he's telling the truth.

I also had expected him to be NK'd as a Town GS, but his survival could be a scum plot to drive the lynch on him anyway, and especially so if >

LE

< was the scum Doctor, in which case flipping N_M would make LE look even better (having been checked by the Town GS).

My scum team is profii+LE, but I'm not as confident on the latter.

[Almost50]

Btw, on N1 I blocked Sasha (since I was very suspicious of him and no one else was, so I deduced he might be the one to do the NK).

[Almost50]

Is profii still gonna push me + you as scumteam?

No. He's going to push me+N_M first. You are a reserve suspect for LyLo, or if he fails to lynch me/N_M.

[Almost50]

My scum team is profii+LE, but I'm not as confident on the latter.

Why LE over Gamma?

Because N_M is alive and being set for a mislynch. Shooting N_M would have been fine for them, but shooting FL gets them rid of a strong townie who was never going to get lynched anyway and makes it possible for them to lynch N_M instead of shooting him. Now why would they want N_M flipped today if it wasn't to confirm his one and only result?

I'm just speculating because I don't fully understand what the scum team is doing right now.

[Almost50]

Too many pr’s for all to be town

Even Night Cop + GS + Vig + RB isn't "too many" if Scum have 2 PRs themselves, I don't think. I mean, judging by Stack the Deck open setup alone, town starts with 2 PRs and gets one for every additional one scum gets.

[Almost50]

If N_M is a mislynch he verified LE doesn’t have a gun though?

That's why I'm saying LE is the SCUM DOCTOR

[Almost50]

I reckon it’s A59 and Gamma

You must be a genius. So, Scum!me is stone-walling the Town!GS lynch??

[Almost50]

Which is a reasonable statement? For it to be a tinfoil it would have to be out there in some way
As it stands you just look like you’re discrediting the idea you could be scum without actually trying to engage the argument presented

Gamma please read my posts. I acknowledge it's NAI to have let the Masons claim roll on. It could come from Town or scum alike (Town knowing scum wouldn't try to save them from the lynch, and scum riding it to get out of the lynch).

HOWEVER, scum would NOT shoot FL in that case. It really really doesn't benefit Scum!Creature to shoot the guy he's claiming Masons with. If Creature was EVER flipped FL was a

guaranteed

mislynch.

[Almost50]

@Light Ethos: My assertion of N_M being town isn't directly related to the voted he's been getting at that start of the day, but more with the fact he acknowledged he was indeed RB'd. So, he's not faking hos role. Can we agree on that (assuming I am indeed a Town RB)??

Now, let's see how likely the GS role would be aligned with the Town vs Mafia:

Town!GS would give a false positive (guilty) on not one, but TWO TPRs (Vig + Cop). Furthermore, I (and FL) suspected there's a

good chance

the Mafia has a Doctor (to protect them from the VIG, and to shade my role when/if I ever had to claim it). That "theory" came from the fact one scum actually claimed Doctor (I myself claimed my partner's role in a previous game, and with him flipping I managed to cruise for 5 game days winning the game single handedly, because most players thought I wouldn't claim an existing Mafia role).

Now what does the GS do to scum? It reveals both the Cop & Vig alright, but that's about it.

Now, if the Town has a Vig, and Even Night Cop, and a Roleblocker, and scum only have a Doctor then the GS is very much a NEGATIVE UTILITY that compensates the scum team for their lack of firepower.

If the GS is scum though, and assuming they have no Doctor (because that's an assumption still), then it's Vig+RB+Even Night Cop (I keep saying "Even Night" to imply it's a weakened role) vs GS. RB could already be a negative utility by itself (demonstrated by the fact I targeted the Cop. Fortunately it wasn't their night of action, but still it could have happened on N2 instead). Anyway, it is my opinion (and I could be wrong) that the GS & RB were included specifically to weaken the town and thus the scum team may not have PRs (either they have a Doctor or nothing at all), while if the GS is scum then the town is certainly at a disadvantage if the scum do have a Doctor.

Like, I could buy scum GS if the Mafia had no other PR and then Crimson faked Doctor to try and bait a CC because scum somehow figured the GS will catch the Cop but they still needed the Doctor outed (too bad none existed and Crimson almost got away with it).

Which brings me to the next point: Why would scum!me bus Crimson that hard on D1? If it wasn't for my persistence I don't think Crimson would have been lynched on D1, and I could have easily adopted Rogeres' PoV of not lynching a claimed PR on D1.

Also, scum GS means scum knew there is no Tracker/Watcher (the GS doesn't catch those, and they rarely ever co-exit with a Cop) so N_M (or rather tw) could (and should) have claimed VT, and especially so when he did it while he was @L-3. Scum should have known two PR claims (fake or not) will be too much to buy with "whatever" PRs the town had.

So, again.. GS is a negative utility, and the Cop role (supposed to double check) was weakened, and was supposed to return a false guilty. It's the kind of setup I would probably use (if I was the mod) over the straight forward roles.

Now am I biased because I like N_M (and tw)? Maybe, but I don't think so.
Could it be I'm subjecting my own modding modules? Perhaps I am.
I also seem to recall I played a game modded by Nauci, but I can't for the life of me remember what it was, nor even whether it was with this account or an alt. The point is I can't be too sure about how her modding meta is. Like, when you play many games under the same mod you can tell which kind of setups they like, which types of roles to expect, and which types they don't like to include in their games. *Shrug*

If you all still want to lynch N_M, that's fine. I made my case, and I am not voting him. Do as you wish.

[Almost50]

Maybe
But why does Town!Creature obfuscate this way?

Because he's.. CREATURE??

[Almost50]

Could Almost be brilliant scum

and

worked this out in the Daytalk with NM

?

According to many; I am.

This isn't even good play if that was the case. The only GOOD move for scum!N_M was to claim he targeted FL like he said he would. I didn't/don't need to tie myself to him in any way, shape or form.

The Cop is dead. The Vig is dead. If it was me+N_M then the town has no living PRs. I was in a good situation and didn't need to confront anyone.

Furthermore, FL was TRing both me and N_M. Why would we shoot him over -say- profii? And why -after the FL flip- am I deflecting suspicion off Creature? And how is all this good scum play at all?

[Almost50]

So Almost, what do you think of massclaim? FL supported the idea for today?

I was for it yesterday! (ISO me), and I'm still for it today.

Also, why are you voting Gamma after you pointed out how LE + profii posts lined up as scum wondering how N_M didn't get a result, and noting LE voted profii in RVS?? What am I missing?

[Almost50]

@Profii: Can you please point out your VCA where you declare that Almost is worthy of votes because I couldn't find that in my VCA?

If the 2 scum team went 1 on 1 off the lynches then a50 + gamma makes sense

I was already wary of gamma yesterday so
VOTE: gamma

VOTE: profii

This is it! You're lock scum and I won't stop until one of us is lynched. It's a 1v1 between profii and myself.

[Almost50]

Note that profii also was probing the possibility of fake claiming Cop on D1. He was paving the way for that in case he got wagoned. His p claimed Doc and he was preparing himself to claim Cop.

[Almost50]

Meh. I just realized I made a pretty big mistake because Almost could be SCUM R/B.

*Sigh* Why would I out? If N_M is scum with me we didn't have to, and if I'm scum and he's town I still didn't need to defend him!

[Almost50]

@ALL:

Can we all agree that if I am the TOWN RB that N_M is confirmed Town? If this is the case (and we can agree on it) I am willing to be today's lynch, and then you lynch in the following order:

Rogers > Profii > LE.

Rogers is still probably Town, but he's a negative utility all by himself. He doesn't need a "role" to be anti-town. That's why I want him dead before the two scums because you won't be able to lynch them in his existence.

[Almost50]

Like, Rogers.. IF YOU ARE TOWN you've just managed to put your name on the same list as Eragon, Alonzo & Espeonage (although I'd put Espeo a notch higher, actually). This is a list of player I should always ignore, and if I ever roll Vig in a game they're playing then I would shoot them on N1

even if they were confirmed IC.

[Almost50]

Note: When I say Rogers is still probably Town it's by a very small margin. I am not as confident as I was at the start of D2. If he's scum he's been pushing his misconception too far already that I can't accept it as either alignment. Please tell me you're scum (still bad play, but MUCH better than this being your town play).

[Almost50]

And Gamma is confirmed Town to me now. profii persistently pushing there makes me believe this. So, Creature+Gamma+N_M+Myself is my own Town!block and I'd go from there. If I had a say we lynch Rogers today to preserve my sanity. Then profii tomorrow, and if the game isn't over we lynch LE (despite the soft inno N_M got on him).

As for Naomi, I do think that slot is Town by virtue of pushing Crimson hard on D1. So, that should be Creature+Gamma+N_M+Myself+Naomi lynching the other 3 in succession to win the game.

@Creature/Gamma: Which of Rogers/profii is your lynch today? I would also ask N_M and Naomi, except I'm not sure they'd return an answer anytime soon.

[Almost50]

@Gamma: Yeah, I meant Naomi's slot. I don't know Akarin and she didn't do anything AI yet, but the slot is town by virtue of Naomi's play.

[Almost50]

@Gamma: If you trust me already, vote profii. If you don't, then promise me to lynch within profii/Rogers tomorrow no matter what after I flip. Thank you.

[Almost50]

@Gamma: If you trust me already, vote profii. If you don't, then promise me to lynch within profii/Rogers tomorrow no matter what after I flip. Thank you.

There’s that ate again

You’ve said me vs you is town vs scum

We lynch one of us today - I’ll play your silly game- if town pick the wrong one, tomorrow is the other one. Period.

And I'll play yours. IF (<<very big skeptical IF) you're town here, you can add your name to that list I told Rogers about (so you better be scum here for me to have any kind of appreciation to your game). I'm dead serious. Oh, and FYI.. ask anyone who knows me. I do not AtE. When I'm angry it's most definitely genuine.

Now assuming the IMPOSSIBLE: both Rogers AND profii are Town = This Town deserves to lose fair and square. I won't even feel sorry we lost because these two (if both are Town) can bring the Titanic down and save the iceberg the trouble.

[Almost50]

pretty harsh that dude

Your 3638 has a glimpse of a town-driven thought. Either that or you're a very cunning scum.

Now assuming you're town, your play has been horrible. Let me point out just one "fact": You say you were trying to bait a NK on D1? How the hell do you bait a NK with not one, not two, and not even three claimed PRs? We had a Vig claim. We had a Gunsmith claim. We had a (fake) Doctor claim, and we had a (fake) Masons claim.

Now what makes you think "crumbing" Cop would make you more likely to be shot than any of those

explicit

claims?

On top of that you were against lynching the fake Doctor, and ended D1 voting Rogers. Now you're somehow trusting Rogers and suspecting me.

So, if this is your town play.. I have nothing more to say than "Go ahead and lose us the game."

[Almost50]

And Gamma is confirmed Town to me now. profii persistently pushing there makes me believe this.

Is Gamma conftown just because of profii?

Yes. I have no mechanical reason to TR Gamma. As I said I blocked Sasha on N1 and N_M on N2, and on both occasions the NK went through.

[Almost50]

What if profii is town?

Then we lost already. What do you suggest we do?

[Almost50]

Oh, and if we lynch scum today I will target LE > Rogers (LE is the default unless he is the lynch then I will block Rogers).

If we mislynch I be blocking profii > Rogers.

That's to say if the lynchee flips scum I'll RB LE. If the lynchee flips Town I'll RB profii. If the lynchee is LE/profii and the flip is red/green respectively then I'll be on Rogers.

[Almost50]

i am calling roles such as neighbour which came out straight away, unexciting because they dont get guilties on scum

so you are just shading facts here, but im the one losing us the game... interesting

Who the freak mentioned a bloody neighbour?? I said we had a

VIG

claim, a

DOCTOR

claim,

TWO MASONS

, and a

GUNSMITH

claim.

And I didn't say we had a COP claim on D1 either! Do you need new glasses??

[Almost50]

VOTE: profii
VOTE: profii
VOTE: profii
VOTE: profii

[Almost50]

Remind me where exactly you started doing that

[Almost50]

Neighbors not masons for Pete’s sake

I'm talking about Creature+FL. They fake claimed Masons. Neighbours are not factored in because a neighbour can be of any alignment so isn't high on the NK list. Masons are confirmed townies to each other so they are a NK target to eliminate a town!block forming.

[Almost50]

@A50

why dont we lynch LE and you can role block me

Only if Creatures sees it that way. If Creature agrees I will do what he says.

[Almost50]

Mister Rogers
Gamma Emerald
Akarin
profii
Light Ethos
Creature

there are the players that _could_ be a scum doc, i guess you wont wanna do that because its kinda a 1in 6 chance, technically

Even if I want to consider all possibilities I wouldn't include Creature in this list by any stretch.

[Almost50]

The Cop is dead. The Vig is dead. If it was me+N_M then the town has no living PRs.

Does anyone recognize how this assumption is somewhat condemning or am I the only one?

Very condemning indeed, and especially so when it was the Vig who shot the Cop. *Firm Nod*

Also the quote is taken out of context. Why would you remove my exclamation about the benefit of my claim here? If the two PRs are dead, and I'm scum.. why claim at all?

[Almost50]

I said i would cop FL in 2100

that was specific bait to him because he knows if im a cop im pretty much going to cop him n1 every chance i get.

i thought i did another one but i cant ctrl f it in my iso

That would be way after all of them.

Nope! My point about tw stilol stands. He mentioned the Vig in 701 & 713 long before FL said he would vig Doughboy in 921, and both before Krazy outed, so it's like FL is the scummiest of the 3, and tw "may or may not" be scum IF FL is scum, but is much more likely to be town if FL flips town.

[Almost50]

Alright then. We need Creature here to give us some insight. If I was to assume you were Town then it's probably Rogers + LE for the scum team.

P.S. @profii: That does make your initial argument about lynching in the neighborhood look better, but your choice of Krazy over Doughboy a bad one. Not too bad if that's the case though. If I assume you're Town I will lynch in these two.

[Almost50]

What is so wrong with this theory

I already explained it over and over again. You can reread what I said if you like, but I'm not gonna waste my time retyping what I already had posted before.

[Almost50]

i still think gamma is in contention too

Please be patient while I search and quote all elements of my case against LE+Rogers. Thank you.

[Almost50]

can you summarise why Akarin/naomi doesnt factor in

ISO the slot (and ctrfl-F "vote:") then have a look at the final VC (and if you like at the VC when Crimson had a wagon @L-2 that dissipated earlier). Naomi was on Crimson almost all the time and didn't leave the wagon when it mattered.

Hint: One of my tool to catch scum is they would join a wagon early and jump off it when it gets serious. This could be done whether the lynchee is town or scum. If it's Town then scum want to look like they had nothing to do with the mislynch. If it's scum they don't want their p lynched.

That is opposed to scum joining the wagon on a p when it looks like they're going down anyway (LE was the hammer vote on Crimson).

So, the VCA shows Naomi as very likely Town who didn't twitch about the lynch on scum, and LE hammering when Crimson was already doomed, after he had voted him earlier (3rd vote) before Creature added a 4th vote, then

Rogers faked L-1 when it was actually L-2

(1899), at which point

Crimson asked to replace out

(hint: if both partners were bussing you and you were not expecting it you might as well want out of the game. No?)

Anyway, Krazy put Crimson @L-1 (my bad. I thought it was only L-2 the first time) and

Rogers posted this

:

Everyone please be careful Crimson is at L-1. Please ask for intent and do not vote!

Obviously we should let the replace contribute. This will be a VERY difficult replace...

PEDIT: This push to lynch is scummy.

Notice that last line? The push for the lynch of the wagon you're on is scummy??

Note: Again, my bad for not wanting to read 106 pages when I replaced in.

Anyway, Crimson soon after rescinded his rep-out request, and before I go any further I remind you of the fact:

Daytalk is enabled. This means all game PTs are open at all times.

So, it's not farfetched to think they all had a talk in the scum PT and convinced him to come back and claim Doctor, and he did.

Then Rogers decided it was anti-town to lynch a claimed Doctor (but was simultaneously pushing on tw who is indeed a TPR).

The final wagon on Crimson (leading to his lynch) didn't include Rogers (who was trying hard to save his buddy) and only had Ethos as the hammer vote (which doesn't at all make him look better because even if the lynch didn't go through there was a chance (albeit a small one) Krazy ends up shooting Crimson, OR (and this is what they feared) an investigative guilties him (the Gunsmith claim was out there and they couldn't tell for sure whether we had a Cop, so there was a chance he would be guilties anyway. Also note that if scum do have a Doctor they know we can't only have a Vig and GS to counter that, so they knew there had to be at least one more TPR).

So, I conclude that if you, profii, are town then it's 90% Rogers + LE are the scum duo alive.

[Almost50]

OK.. so let's go back to my plan: We lynch LE and (when) that flips scum I'm blocking Rogers. That should end the game practically.

VOTE: Light Ethos

@Gamma/Creature/N_M/Naomi: Please sheep me on this.

[Almost50]

If my alignment is tied to LE then go ahead and lynch me

You are very VERY welcome if that's your wish. I just need the Town to decide which of you two goes first.

P.S. I recall you saying almost the same thing about the Crimson lynch, mate.

[Almost50]

And yet there is!

Now can you explain why it is "not possible" that there can be a Town Roleblocker? I'm sure the rest of us would feel humbled to your gracious wisdom.

[Almost50]

I have Mister Rogers as town.

Of course you do

[Almost50]

There is a lot of twisting words and faking obtuse in your post (the same way Rogers is doing it) that I really don't care to respond.

Like; you boiling down my case on you to

Not_Mafia got a no gun check on me, and because Crimson97 claimed Doctor and because I was the hammer vote on Crimson, that means that I must be a scum Doctor?

isn't even worth responding to. I did a VCA. I showed you were on his Crimson's first wagon. I noted he got angry and asked to replace-out because of the bus. The 6th vote on him was Rogers' slot. He then retracted the replace-out request and fake claimed Doctor, and from then on Rogers decided to defend him to eternity, while you only hammered him when it was obvious no one else would be lynched. All that and you tell me it's just because you hammered that I think you're scum?

Go back and reread the case on you (and Rogers), and when you think you have real questions with substance then I would be willing to answer them.

"Never trusting" someone is one thing, and pushing for their lynch is totally another. Scum shade each other for distancing all the time, but when push comes to shove they'd find a way to not vote them for the lynch. The only exception is when they realize their p is going down anyway, and then they try to ride the wagon for Town credit.

Also you're parroting Rogers about my claim which I have debated for at least 3 times already. WHY would scum!Me claim today AT ALL? I'm either scum

with

N_M, in which case I wouldn't have blocked him, so we're both faking, when it was much much easier to just say he checked the already flipped VT

as he said he would

, and I would have stayed very much above all suspicion. OR I'm scum RB and he's a Town GS and then I blocked him and would still have to keep quiet about it while I was globally TR'd.

And if you argue I am afraid of losing my p then you really need to ask someone in the know about my scum game. (Or go check my play in my scum games I have linked on my wiki page).

Now the last possibility is I'm indeed Town and he is a scum GS. WHY THE FREAK does he say he picked you at random on N1? Like, N_M isn't being globally TR'd to start with (and he knows it), so why would he pour more gas on his own flame? Like N_M is a troll not a fool. he knows how to play the game well, but he opts to play it in a light groovy manner most don't understand until they've played him enough.

Finally, I do have a tell on N_M. I will not expose it, but it almost always works. This is not his scum game. It was not tw's scum game either. And frankly I would rather lose to scum!N_M than mislynch Town!N_M 11 times out of 10.

And you're telling me your top TR is the guy who stood firm against lynching scum!Crimson on D1?? Get out of here.

[Almost50]

If I'm playing this game as a scum Doctor on a scum team with Crimson in a game with a town gunsmith, then when Crimson rage quits and returns making that doctor claim, I would counterclaim Doctor and bus him. Gunsmith gets a green check on me later if he decides to do it, and I get town cred for it. Crimson's play wasn't defensible this game, so bussing him is fine there.

And how are you going to explain your survival to LyLo?

[Almost50]

Is there more than process of elimination as to why you're listing Creature and GammaEmerald as town?

Yes. Creature is 100% Town because of his meta. I may not experience with you to factor your meta in my read on you, but I do have enough experience with Creature (on and off site, although he might not be aware of the off site part)

Gamma not so much so. I do have enough experience with him, but I've been having some difficulties reading him of late.

Let's assume you're Town. Who is scum?

[Almost50]

I have no idea what to do

UNVOTE:

At least we have that in common. And the two most trusted slots I have are not helping me much in terms of figuring things out. Like I appreciate N_M's vote on Rogers, but I need to talk to him about game theory and players associatives.

[Almost50]

I don't see how what you quoted correlates with your question. Can you explain the link?

You said you would CC, meaning you would claim Town Doctor. Town Doctor is a role likely to attract the scum NK, and -since it is a protective role itself- it is unlikely there will be yet another protective that justifies you not being NK'd several nights into the game.

[Almost50]

My approach would definitely depend on whether my partner got found or not and also who my partner would be. At the worst case, it becomes a WIFOM like the one scum put me into during my first game on this site. RadiantCowbells was in full gamesolve mode from the start and was paranoid of getting night killed. I replaced into a VT slot that was generally a null to scumlean read from most players. Final 3 was me, a guy who replaced in for someone who site flaked, and RadiantCowbells. That LyLo situation seems similar to what you set up. Regardless, the extended hypothetical is not what happened this game.

You had the pleasure of playing Scum!RC? I mean, I don't know what happened, but RC living to a 3-player LyLo = Scum!RC 99% of the time. (unless both scum were new players and so were their replacements)

This -of course- isn't related to this game, but I found it amusing RC would live that long and not get suspected.

[Almost50]

@Akarin: My sincere apologies for using you predecessor's name instead of yours.

[Almost50]

It wasn't BS, but I don't think it invalidates Almost50's claim either.

Can you please claim? I mean, most of us are for a massclaim anyway, and I think it should help us a LOT. I only wish we had done that yesterday because FL is better than me at this still.

[Almost50]

Sure. I'm a Town Two-Shot Bulletproof. I was hoping to bait out a night kill at some point with 1051, but Flavor Leaf's fake claims prevented that from happening.

UNVOTE:

I personally do not think scum would think of THAT as a fake claim, unless they were trying to explain why they aren't dead, which doesn't make sense because we all already had maximum NKs on both nights so far.

In short; this is a Town claim.

[Almost50]

I'm totally lost and any wagon I support would be out of me wanting to advance the game rather than being confident in a scum flip.

I sure should either not replace into games or be 100% willing to do a thorough read when I do. ISOing isn't exactly that informative for me it appears.

That said, I will keep my vote idle until I hear from Creature.

@Creature: Please.. pretty please,, give me some directions. You know I trust your reads as Town, so please help me out here. Thank you.

[Almost50]

I am with you all the way on the mass claim.

[Almost50]

BAD POST, Please don't open the spoiler if you're not Gamma Emerald.

@Gamma:

Spoiler:

Would you be offended or take it personal if I put you @L-1 here?

Explanation: Of late, there have been certain players I do not feel like lynching, because I'm afraid they'd take it personal and think I'm tunneling them in every game, which is never the case. I know it' bad practice to let your personal feelings affect you in-game actions, but I also am a human being and I value the feelings of people I consider to be friends.

To sum it up: Based on the current status of this game I think you have a good chance of flipping red. I just don't want you avoiding me in future games thinking I'm back to auto-SR you regardless.

[Almost50]

I'm now getting cold feet about Gamma's lynch. He's being way too calm about it, which doesn't concur with his meta (as either alignment).

[Almost50]

@Gamma: Why are you not worried about this? How come you are almost welcoming the lynch?

[Almost50]

OK.. I'll take the risk of ending the day now because I actually want the game to end and there's not much "new" content being brought up anyway.

If I'm wrong here ..

I am sorry, Gamma

. (I would preemptively apologize for the whole town too bc I feel like a mislynch today could be the difference between a win and a loss, but I still have faith in you guys)

VOTE: Gamma

[Almost50]

And if I'm dead overnight, please lynch Rogers. Those are the last words of a (confirmed if flipped tonight) town player. It's my will. My death wish.

[Almost50]

Thanks for modding, Nauci

[Almost50]

@N_M: Give it a rest. You're most likely mistaking. I looked it up, and I got:

"A term consisting of 3 parts:
1- WAG; shot for wives and girlfriends
2- on
3- mics; as in microphones"

So it's much like Django.. the d is silent.