Mafia 75: Return of the Mafia! TOWN WINS (really late)

[Matt_S]

Well, every night he wakes up alive is +1 confirmed town.

Ah, I wasn't thinking about the confirming townies part, just the finding scum part.

BM, is your plan to hide with someone who you feel will die (or if you have been hiding the hide with scum thing, presumably CKD) and be confirmed by death? If so, have you done the math on if that speeds up the game by a day in the worst case scenario?

I doubt this is it since it involves too much guesswork and not enough living. If I'm right, then I think secrecy is the best option.

Hi Matt,

I'm Pie.

You are right a lot.

Hello Pie, and thank you very much

[Battle Mage]

BM, just wondering 1 thing that I'm pretty sure I asked before: Have you asked Jordan if you die for hiding with scum, or just read your role PM for it? Its something that he could have forgotten, and if he by chance did that actually makes your role much more powerful.

I may just be missing this, but if he does die by hiding with scum, how does that help? For us to know who he targets, he has to announce it. That means scum gets to kill that person and BM on one night, unless BM pulls WIFOM on the mafia, which makes him unreliable anyways.

Well, every night he wakes up alive is +1 confirmed town.

BM, is your plan to hide with someone who you feel will die (or if you have been hiding the hide with scum thing, presumably CKD) and be confirmed by death? If so, have you done the math on if that speeds up the game by a day in the worst case scenario?

short answer: No.

[armlx]

Hmm, just doing some math on the mass claim in worst case scenarios.

I'm assuming a 5 man mafia to start and that there is a killing cult member.

Currently

16/4/1.

I'm expecting 11-14 townies. 12 seems like a good estimate. 3 are dead.

so thats (Townies/Power Roles/Scum/ Cult)

9/7/4/1

Assuming vig killing and all townie claims, we lost 2 non-vig power roles tomorrow, including a probable doc. and lynch/vig 2 townie claims.


7/5/4/1.

Repeat, we lose the vig tonight.

5/3/4/1

Hmm, Pie might actually be right here that we win the race in a mass claim scenario. I would rather wait till this whole BM scenario is resolved to do it, but I support it after that point.

[curiouskarmadog]

I say we do BM's alternative test. Tomorrow, BM will explain what the hell the test was and how it confirms him. If it's unsatisfactory, we lynch him. Problem solved.

Yep. In fact, even easier. Tonight, Farside will be able to assess my idea, and if she isnt convinced, she will kill me. If she is convinced, she won't kill me. That should hopefully solve the issue.

BM

umm, isnt farside testing you and not killing you? If you are not lying and you hide, she wont be killing you..

slip?

or is this part of the plan I am not getting..

[Battle Mage]

Pie, please do me a favour. Drop the whole 'CKD is the lynch' act. He's getting vigged tonight, lets just leave it at that, ok?

It sounds to me like you have some kind of Fancy Plan that you're not revealing to the town. I'm fine with letting this happen, with the understanding that tomorrow, 1) You or CKD is dead, 2) You will be able to give us a good reason why you couldn't tell us what was going on today. Understand that if both these conditions aren't fulfilled, I will push damn hard against you tomorrow.

I'm afraid i cant promise that-i'm not a Vig. Try asking Farside nicely. -.-

For now, the Dahill wagon needs you, and a case has already been posted. Please give as detailed thoughts as possible.

Was there a case against Dahill before I replaced in? If so, I didn't read it. If you're referring to the random crap people have been throwing at Dahill recently, I don't think it has any merit at all. I'll take these on a case-by-case basis. I'm not really a fan of pbpa's.

in other words you havent read it.
I'm not exaggerating. If you read the entirety of his posts, you will be left with little-no doubt he is scum.

are we actually wasting a night to test BM? what the hell for? we either lynch him and find out, or we don't lynch him and if someone just so happens to confirm it oh well. plans like this are so easily backfired by the town.

Mnowax is completely right. BM, if your plan involves the vig's kill being altogether wasted, I will be pissed. Otherwise, carry on.

No, it involves the exact opposite.

BM

[Battle Mage]

I say we do BM's alternative test. Tomorrow, BM will explain what the hell the test was and how it confirms him. If it's unsatisfactory, we lynch him. Problem solved.

Yep. In fact, even easier. Tonight, Farside will be able to assess my idea, and if she isnt convinced, she will kill me. If she is convinced, she won't kill me. That should hopefully solve the issue.

BM

umm, isnt farside testing you and not killing you? If you are not lying and you hide, she wont be killing you..

slip?

or is this part of the plan I am not getting..

the latter. lawl.

[armlx]

BTW, my last post included the option of Farside vigging someone who you are hiding with. Should have specified that one, which I'm not a huge fan of.

[Battle Mage]

Well, every night he wakes up alive is +1 confirmed town.

Ah, I wasn't thinking about the confirming townies part, just the finding scum part.

BM, is your plan to hide with someone who you feel will die (or if you have been hiding the hide with scum thing, presumably CKD) and be confirmed by death? If so, have you done the math on if that speeds up the game by a day in the worst case scenario?

I doubt this is it since it involves too much guesswork and not enough living. If I'm right, then I think secrecy is the best option.

Hi Matt,

I'm Pie.

You are right a lot.

Hello Pie, and thank you very much

is there a way you can communicate to me what you think you know, without implicitly revealing information that is best kept hidden?

BM

[armlx]

I hope I didn't just Sarnath BM's keep it quiet post with the right answer.

[armlx]

BTW, based on another ongoing, I'm finding it more and more likely TS is scum here.

[Battle Mage]

^qft

[Matt_S]

is there a way you can communicate to me what you think you know, without implicitly revealing information that is best kept hidden?

BM

I'm trying to think of a way. I'll try some vague questions that you'll only answer properly if we're having a mind meld.
1. Will farside know pretty much 100% that you're telling the truth?
2. If farside weren't alive, would you be able to prove to me that you were town.
And now the cynical side of me has a question which doesn't require a mind meld.
3. If the cult had a backup recruiter to begin with, and you're really a cultist, how do we know you aren't going to recruit farside?

[Matt_S]

^BTW, it would help a lot if you gave vague responses along with a yes or no answer.

[armlx]

Matt_S, scenario 3 is actually impossible in a balanced game. Just saying.

[Matt_S]

Matt_S, scenario 3 is actually impossible in a balanced game. Just saying.

You mean the backup recruiter part, or the vig being recruited part? If it's the latter, then let's suppose hypothetically that a vig could be recruited, but would lose their vig ability.

[armlx]

No, the back up recruiter. Killing the first one is usually hard enough and the threat of a cult usually causes every other group (scum and town) to drop their plans and aim for the recruiter.

And ability loss is usually the case, btw.

[Matt_S]

No, the back up recruiter. Killing the first one is usually hard enough and the threat of a cult usually causes every other group (scum and town) to drop their plans and aim for the recruiter.

And ability loss is usually the case, btw.

This makes me a lot less paranoid.

[armlx]

No, the back up recruiter. Killing the first one is usually hard enough and the threat of a cult usually causes every other group (scum and town) to drop their plans and aim for the recruiter.

And ability loss is usually the case, btw.

This makes me a lot less paranoid.

Yeah, cults are probably the most powerful anti-town group used. 1 cult leader wins a 20 person game in the same time as a 3 man mafia, and losing a recruit doesn't even really slow them down that much where as losing a mafia member is a full day added to the game. One of the main reasons I can find against the poison kill being a cult recruit is that the cult turning into a mafia after the leader dies is really close to over powered.

[Matt_S]

is there a way you can communicate to me what you think you know, without implicitly revealing information that is best kept hidden?

BM

I'm trying to think of a way. I'll try some vague questions that you'll only answer properly if we're having a mind meld.
1. Will farside know pretty much 100% that you're telling the truth?
2. If farside weren't alive, would you be able to prove to me that you were town.
And now the cynical side of me has a question which doesn't require a mind meld.
3. If the cult had a backup recruiter to begin with, and you're really a cultist, how do we know you aren't going to recruit farside?

I'd like to make a clarification. For #2, assume farside doesn't get a kill for some reason.

Yeah, cults are probably the most powerful anti-town group used. 1 cult leader wins a 20 person game in the same time as a 3 man mafia, and losing a recruit doesn't even really slow them down that much where as losing a mafia member is a full day added to the game. One of the main reasons I can find against the poison kill being a cult recruit is that the cult turning into a mafia after the leader dies is really close to over powered.

I'm too lazy to look back to see if you said this earlier, but do you think that the poison killing is by a protown role or another 3rd party killing group?

[Pie_is_good]

I am confused as to why BM is trying to make Matt understand what he plans to do, when there is apparently no reason for protowners to know the plan and potential hazards if scum know it.

[armlx]

Matt_S: I currently think the poisoning is a cult turned SK with the death of the leader.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

BM: Farside has said she will vig you. You say that your plan will convince her prior to her submitting her nightchoice. If that's the case, then why do we still need to be talking about this? It will convince her, or it won't.

Pie: I'm not convinced by the arguments for massclaim, but I'm not inherently opposed to it, I just don't feel like I've seen a coherent argument for it yet. So be explicit.

The benefits of massclaim, as I see it:
Ability to guide powerroles in a pro-town fashion
More difficult for scum to fakeclaim powerroles believably

Downsides:
Power roles likely to be killed that much faster
Scum able to fakeclaim powerroles believably likely to be trusted

The problem is, as I see it, is that there aren't that many power roles likely to be left alive, which means the benefits of having them out in the open isn't likely to outweight the loss of having them quickly killed.

[armlx]

There prob are a fair amount of power roles left with cult + sk + mafia (i like my estimate), but today is not the time for one unless we want to preempt scum night discussion about claims.

[Battle Mage]

I am confused as to why BM is trying to make Matt understand what he plans to do, when there is apparently no reason for protowners to know the plan and potential hazards if scum know it.

Its called 'damage limitation'. I want to be sure that i hadnt let something slip. I'm confident Matt doesnt know.

BM

[armlx]

Why limit the possible options for people to guess at though?