I'm not saying that no scum are on the Creature wagon; I'm saying that there may be 1 or 2 scum off it. The only reason the Creature wagon couldn't be all-town is that LabRat and Keyser were both outside it; I've played plenty of games with no scum on the d1 mislynch wagon. Town aren't actually all that good and townies suspect other townies all the time. It's perfectly reasonable to suppose that over a majority of townies would elect to lynch somebody, especially somebody acting suspicious. It's possible for Irrelephant to be the only scum on the wagon for example and I don't think it's possible to rule it out, even if there's a limited number of possible scumteams containing him.In post 1195, volxen wrote:@Ausuka, do you really think my conclusion about their being scum on Creature's wagon is unreasonable? Even in games with the usual town:scum ratio (e.g., 7:2, 10:3, etc.), I still believe that in the vast majority of cases, townies don't get lynched without scum involvement, especially on day one where the most votes are required to achieve a lynch. I have done this kind of VCA analysis, as town, in multiple newbie games that I have played.In post 1177, Ausuka wrote:good tone and his ate at the end of d2 felt genuine, seems interested in scumhunting similarly to other games i played with him.In post 1163, Eragon wrote:who do you think keyser is town?
i could see having some reasons for a town lean, but willing to put in heaven im suprised tbh.
w/ volxen and tw, tw's read had a lot more nuance and progression? and i feel like he had a large role in like setting those players as scumread, whereas volxen is just like "yeah a few of these points why eragon is townreading creature are kind of wrong" at a time when i think creature and eragon are considered the scummiest players here, and says "Any why doesn't he consider the possibility that Keyser could be pushing him as scum as well? Why is Keyser the only person on his wagon that gets a free pass?" while quoting creature openly entertaining the possibility keyser is scum. tw's reads feel a lot more developed than volxen's in this regard and also his entire reason for pushing eragon and keyser as scum is essentially "they make sense as buddies with creature" but he's also like "I'm like 99.99% certain that there is at least one scum among {Keyser, Creature, Eragon}. I don't see a world where they are all town." which doesn't actually account for how his push was revolved around creature and preflip associations.his push today is basically just "people on the Creature wagon are scum" which seems like a really surface level view and doesn't at all account for the possibility that scum might have just stayed off the wagon which happens regularly in games generally.
i'm tired right now so sorry if none of this makes sense.
In this game, I believe this applies even more-so than usual because the town:scum ratio is 6:3 rather than 7:2, and a third of the original playerlist is scum. To put it in perspective, there are only 6 townies, so if Creature's mislynch wagon was all-town, it would mean that 100% of his fellow town players all voted to lynch him, and that the scumteam is {Keyser, Eragon, Labrat}. I'm 99.99% confident that isn't the case.
I furthermore concluded that Irrelephant isn't the sole scum on Creature's wagon, because his vote didn't really make a significant difference in the outcome of day one (i.e., Creature would have been mislynched even if Irrelephant did not place the hammer vote). So what is wrong with my conclusion that there is scum among {TW, Dr. J, Ausuka} based on VCA? Do you really think I should be entertaining the notion of a {Keyser, Eragon, Labrat} scumteam at this point?
Even ignoring accuracy, saying "in this game with 3 scum out of 9 players, there's probably 1 at least scum in {Ausuka, Jekyll, worst, volxen}" isn't really a helpful point and is also the only alignment-hunting you've done today.
