2018 NFL Football

[Kmd4390]

but let's not act like he was Andrew Luck or something.

Literally nobody is doing this.

Nobody here is, but I do hear that a lot. There's a lot of rhetoric out there that he led a team to the Super Bowl and was playing great and the 49ers only dropped him because of politics and it's insane that teams with bad quarterbacks aren't giving such a proven guy a chance to suddenly lead them to a Super Bowl.

[PokerFace]

Can I ask how many teams Colin or his agent approached about a QB job and which teams, so I can be sure they went with a worse guy? If the alternative was of similar skill to Colin's most recent season, or remained of similar skill then its a maybe. If the alternative was trash and stayed trash in their position, then Colin has a case

Redskins have signed Mark Sanchez since Alex Smith is headed to IR. I thought Redskins were playoff bound, but now that division is up for grabs

[PJ.]

but let's not act like he was Andrew Luck or something.

Literally nobody is doing this.

beside Bella and every sports media website? Just type Colin kaepernick into Google on a Monday, and you get a bunch of articles about "x team is the new evidence that Kaepernick is being colluded against". This week was Washington, last week was the Jets. Some weeks it's multiple teams.

[SleepyKrew]

I think the argument is that plenty of worse QBs have no trouble finding a job every year. Kaep isn't great but he's good enough to be on a roster, and probably better than some people who started this year.

[PJ.]

I agree he could start for someone..like..3-4 options, but people need to dial back the "he can start everytime someone throws an interception" rhetoric, especially considering that all the noise is partially why you can't hire him as a back up. You don't want the fans chanting for your back up the second your starter throws a pick.

[Kmd4390]

Can I ask how many teams Colin or his agent approached about a QB job and which teams, so I can be sure they went with a worse guy? If the alternative was of similar skill to Colin's most recent season, or remained of similar skill then its a maybe. If the alternative was trash and stayed trash in their position, then Colin has a case

Redskins have signed Mark Sanchez since Alex Smith is headed to IR. I thought Redskins were playoff bound, but now that division is up for grabs

I only know of Baltimore and Seattle. They were looking for a backup and he wanted starter money.

[Nero Cain]

I think Denver was willing to trade for him but I think the 49ers wanted too much. Then he left SF and Denver wanted him still but they didn't offer him what he felt he was worth. He had a visit with Seattle but they didn't sign him and then the Ravens were gonna sign him and then his girl started calling the owner a plantation owner or some such nonsense and I don't know why at all. So the Ravens were like "fuck that noise".

[Papa Zito]

I think the argument is that plenty of worse QBs have no trouble finding a job every year. Kaep isn't great but he's good enough to be on a roster, and probably better than some people who started this year.

This is exactly the argument yes.

[shaft.ed]

I agree he could start for someone..like..3-4 options, but people need to dial back the "he can start everytime someone throws an interception" rhetoric, especially considering that all the noise is partially why you can't hire him as a back up. You don't want the fans chanting for your back up the second your starter throws a pick.

Mark fucking Sanchez

[SleepyKrew]

I don't really believe that he's demanding a starter spot or starter money. It would be shooting himself in the foot for his collusion case.

[Killthestory]

im under the opinion he'd at the very least be one of the best backups in the game even if an offense wanted to run some sort of option like how the ravens utilized lamar jackson or the saints utilize their backup. i'm pretty sure i can think of some starters who are worse as well.

[PokerFace]

If Kaep wants starter money, I'd only hire him if I thought I might start him at some point during the year.

I'd take Wilson > Kaep so unless there was an injury, I would not start him

The owner plantation comments did hurt him in Baltimore, but given Flacco > Kaep in that superbowl, I feel Kaep could only start if Flacco went down. Jackson being in Baltimore to take over for Flacco now, is another reason they don't need Kaep

Denver is really only one of those teams that could have used him in recent years. If the SF trade fell flat and Kaep wanted money there, then I wouldn't hire him there either. Case has been real good in recent years while Kaep has not, so I think I'd take Case.

The most obvious team that strikes me as needing someone of his caliber would be Buffalo. I suppose you could argue Arizona, Jags or TB could use him given how their seasons have gone. Miami and Washington could use him now too only because of injuries. Jets an Arizona have had rough years, but giving their young qbs a chance to play in a year they can't win is better than spending money on Kaep

If Kaep is seeking a backup job with backup pay, then I can see his chances of being hired increasing. His case is stronger in that scenario indeed

[PJ.]

Well the biggest thing pointing to collusion is that most of these teams aren't even working him out. They call in the clown squad for work outs and kaep's phone doesn't ring. And that's weird.

[Bella]

The team was bad and the schemes were bad, so there is reason to believe if he came back under a coach that didn't suck it would be better, but let's not act like he was Andrew Luck or something.

Statistically speaking, his career stats prior to this season were overall better than Andrew Luck's...

[Bella]

I mean, I'm half--trolling with that last comment, because while it's true, the difference is pretty marginal (passerwise, anyway, Kaepernick's run game is way better) and I absolutely know QB stats are to do with way more than just how well the QB played. Having a functional offensive line is the difference between a QB being a star and ending up sacked into oblivion like David Carr, which is the major areas Kaepernick's teams have been better than Luck's, but then, TY Hilton is a better skill position player than any Kaepernick had. Reaally, the difference in passing ability as observed by their actual play wasn't as big as you're trying to make out.

[PJ.]

I mean, I'm half--trolling with that last comment, because while it's true, the difference is pretty marginal (passerwise, anyway, Kaepernick's run game is way better) and I absolutely know QB stats are to do with way more than just how well the QB played. Having a functional offensive line is the difference between a QB being a star and ending up sacked into oblivion like David Carr, which is the major areas Kaepernick's teams have been better than Luck's, but then, TY Hilton is a better skill position player than any Kaepernick had. Reaally, the difference in passing ability as observed by their actual play wasn't as big as you're trying to make out.

This is simply untrue. Kaepernick has exactly one year where he outperformed or marginally underperformed on a similar sample size. 2012 kaepernick threw just above 200 passes while luck threw 600. 2013 kaepernick outperformed luck. 2014 luck significantly outplayed kaep. 2015 luck missed over half the season but still was slightly statistically higher than kaep but both were god awful . 2016 luck significantly outperform kaep who was one of the statistically worse qbs for a 3rd year straight.

Also despite the Colts having a worse o-line lucks ability to get the ball out + just the sheer number of pass plays they ran actually make the advanced pass blocking stats look reasonable.

[Killthestory]

luck is also fundamentally a very good quarterback, and i would take him any day over kaep.

i think the starter case could be made with other quarterbacks for sure, but andrew luck? i, uh, hmm.

[PJ.]

-145 DYAR, -17.5% DVOA, 55.2 QBR.

Only 3 starting QBs have worse DYAR than that this year. Dak, Rosen Darnold. You're not replacing any of those guys with Kaep. You could add Tannehill to that list from the non-qualifiers(but he'd be statistically a worse passer than Osweiler in this exercise - much better runner though as always). DVOA is better than the aforementioned as well as Mariota and Jimmy G. QBR would be good for 21st of the 32 guy who have thrown at least 165 passes (and basically every guy who hasn't beside McCoy, Mullens, and Barkley) but not Mariota. So DVOA and DYAR wise, I don't think he's better than anyone that he could replace beside Tabnehill (who already seems replaced) because they are all younger and in Mariota's case, basically the same guy(which could be an argument to have him as a back up there if you don't buy that he'd be a distraction). If you view QBR as the end all be all + look at marginal deficits in the other 2 stats(and only placing tiny weight on his rushing which is obviously elite), I feel the only guys you can make an argument for starting wise are Bortles, Keenum, Alex Smith pre-injury(but I think McCoy is going to play better), and *maybe* Eli. Also everyone in Buffalo once Barkley has stats that don't only consist of him roasting and toasting the jets. So Miami, Jax, Den, Buffalo(post-Allen injury) and *maybe* NYG are the only real spots as a starter.

And yeah, I agree he'd be probably the 3rd or 4th best back up, and he's definitely better than all the free agent clown squad guys but that's going into the issue of "would the media he brings be better or worse than standing pat or grabbing EJ Manuel" which I think gets you into a bizarre subjective argument.

[scotmany12]

Kaep has never proven to be able to run an offense that is not tailor designed around him. This is why he is not a backup. No team is going to bring in a qb who will need a separate playbook as a backup qb.

I do think he is being blacklisted. But take the idea that he probably isn’t back material, don’t know how much of a coach he can be (big part of backup qbs), he hasn’t played professional football in about two years, and the media circus that would happen when he is signed, it really shouldn’t be surprising that he remains unsigned.

[PJ.]

But I also think there's a valid argument that the NFL as it currently exists is tailored towards his skill set, considering how many teams run RPOs, read options, and just the general proliferation of the spread.

When I brought up my counter argument, my goal was to simply say that it's not a black and white situation (no pun intended). It's complex and while it's entirely possible and even likely that there is validity to the claim of him be blacklisted, that it isn't as cut and dry as people like to make it seem. He likely would not succeed in a place like Washington and likely could strive in places with a better scheme or one that fits close 6o his skill set, like Tennessee. Also there's merit in tailoring the scheme to him if you're a trash fire like buffalo or miami, but is that possible success even worth it when you can just pick high in the draft instead?

Edit: ftr, I think Miami is definitely a team that could be used as a great example for the collusion case. Both quarterbacks are no good, they are sitting essentially in the middle of a draft that seems loaded with defensive linemen(which they need) and light on any offensive talent at all at the top and the QBs who are being rated highly rated arent really that great - Herbert and Lock seem to fall in the Bortles camp of "they look like starting QBs but aren't actually good".

[Bella]

I mean, I'm half--trolling with that last comment, because while it's true, the difference is pretty marginal (passerwise, anyway, Kaepernick's run game is way better) and I absolutely know QB stats are to do with way more than just how well the QB played. Having a functional offensive line is the difference between a QB being a star and ending up sacked into oblivion like David Carr, which is the major areas Kaepernick's teams have been better than Luck's, but then, TY Hilton is a better skill position player than any Kaepernick had. Really, the difference in passing ability as observed by their actual play wasn't as big as you're trying to make out.

This is simply untrue. Kaepernick has exactly one year where he outperformed or marginally underperformed on a similar sample size. 2012 kaepernick threw just above 200 passes while luck threw 600. 2013 kaepernick outperformed luck. 2014 luck significantly outplayed kaep. 2015 luck missed over half the season but still was slightly statistically higher than kaep but both were god awful . 2016 luck significantly outperform kaep who was one of the statistically worse qbs for a 3rd year straight.

Also despite the Colts having a worse o-line lucks ability to get the ball out + just the sheer number of pass plays they ran actually make the advanced pass blocking stats look reasonable.

Percentages are a far more comparable stat (as is passer rating) on account of being much less affected by the sample size (which is affected by quality of running games and the running ability of the QB, both areas that would tend to lower Kaepernick's passing stats, as well as team performances which affects game planning) and prior to this season, Kaepernick was broadly equal or better than Luck at these stats. Which again, doesn't tell the whole story, but does demonstrate that it's not like Kaepernick has been *that* much worse a QB than Luck. Note also I'm talking about stats prior to this season, because that's when I actually compared them and Luck's been allowed to play up to his potential this season, finally.

Kaep has never proven to be able to run an offense that is not tailor designed around him. This is why he is not a backup. No team is going to bring in a qb who will need a separate playbook as a backup qb.

I do think he is being blacklisted. But take the idea that he probably isn’t back material, don’t know how much of a coach he can be (big part of backup qbs), he hasn’t played professional football in about two years, and the media circus that would happen when he is signed, it really shouldn’t be surprising that he remains unsigned.

Plenty of teams do that already. Luck's division is a perfect example - Mariota and Watson can do things with their legs that Gabbert and Weedon could never do. Likewise, Jacoby Brissett can't throw the ball like Andrew Luck, but has a major advantage in his mobility. There's a very logical case that if Watson (for example) was backed-up by Kaepernick, the Texans might be able to make even better use of Watson's legs as they wouldn't have to limit that part of their playbook in case of injury.

[PJ.]

Technically luck can't throw the ball like brisett either seeing as they had him "pinch hit" for luck on a hail Mary earlier this year

[Nero Cain]

I do think he is being blacklisted.

But take the idea that he probably isn’t back material, don’t know how much of a coach he can be (big part of backup qbs), he hasn’t played professional football in about two years, and the media circus that would happen when he is signed, it really shouldn’t be surprising that he remains unsigned.

If he's being blacklisted the bold can't be true but if the bold is true then he's not be blacklisted. There's a fine line between "teams don't want him b/c X reason(s)" and some conspiracy to keep teams from signing him. I feel like the biggest piece of evidence AGAINST his collusion case is that he was given an opportunity in both Denver and Baltimore and he burned those bridges. The NFL, as in life, has more to do with just being "good" but you also need interpersonal skills and I think he has 0 of those.

On the flip side, the biggest piece of evidence for his collusion case is that bad QBs do get to play. But coaches/gm's have egos and when they draft a pick they want to play him and hope he gets better with time and experience. See Jarred Goff/Mitch Tribusky, though I think most ppl think he(they) got better with a coaching change.

[Nero Cain]

Tannehill is solid. His career 86.7 PA is similar to Kaep's 88.9. Tannehill is also much more accurate.

[PJ.]

And he's also worse than Brick Osweiler this year, hasn't lasted an entire season in 3 years and throws considerably more interceptions(41 more in only 13 more games)

also take into account that kaep played the legion of boom twice a year.